Week 12 NFL Player Props
For the third consecutive week, we dropped a 3-3 record with our player props wagers. However, due to a triple-unit bet on Derek Carr who practically surpassed his line in the first half, we managed to net +1.05 Units in Week 10 to increase our season-long total to +3.55 Units. We are due for a big week as in-game injuries and players who have fallen a catch or a couple of yards short have plagued us all season. Despite still being in the green, it’s time for us to catch fire like the first few weeks of the campaign. After taking Week 11 off, it’s time to hit big in Week 12 NFL Player Props!
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 12 NFL prop bets!
Justin Herbert OVER 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)
It’s the Harbaugh Bowl! Rivalry and fireworks are guaranteed as the 7-3 Chargers take on the 7-4 Ravens! But let’s talk numbers, specifically Justin Herbert’s recent resurgence in the air game. Over his last five outings, Herbert has topped this passing yardage prop in four games, averaging an impressive 274 yards per contest during that stretch.
The matchup couldn’t set up better for another aerial assault. Baltimore may be a 2.5-point road favorite, but this slight edge from bookmakers hints at a close game, creating an ideal script for Herbert to air it out. The Ravens’ defense, while formidable, has been heavily targeted through the air this season. They are one of the biggest pass-funnels in the NFL. Baltimore has allowed the most passing attempts (40), completions (26), and yards per game (304.6) to opposing quarterbacks.
Herbert isn’t just slinging it deep; he’s doing so with precision. He leads the NFL in Passer Rating on throws of 20+ air yards, with only one interception all season (way back in Week 2). Combine his efficiency with a game total of 51 points, the highest on the board this week, and all signs point to Herbert hitting the over. Not to mention, the recent breakout of rookie Ladd McConkey helps. I’d consider parlaying his receiving yardage over (70.5) with Herbert’s passing yardage over.
It’s a high number, but given Herbert’s form, Baltimore’s defensive tendencies, and a likely shootout, the over feels like the right call. Get ready for a big night from Herbert!
Tommy Devito OVER 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-175)
No one’s expecting Tommy DeVito to channel his inner Eli Manning when he takes the field Sunday, but the good news is—he doesn’t have to for this prop to hit. Based on Daniel Jones’ struggles, DeVito might actually improve the Giants’ offense, giving them the spark they desperately need.
Let’s not forget DeVito’s track record. In his first five starts last season, he tossed at least one touchdown pass in each game, including a pair of multi-TD performances (two in one game, three in another). His play even led to a three-game win streak. Not bad for a guy stepping into the spotlight.
Sunday’s matchup sets the stage for success. The Buccaneers’ secondary has been a touchdown factory for opposing QBs, allowing 14 TD passes over their last four games with zero interceptions. That’s a stat line DeVito will gladly exploit.
With this matchup and DeVito’s potential, this prop has plenty of value even with all the juice. Let’s see if the rookie can make some magic happen!
De’Von Achane OVER 101.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-110)
At first glance, this number might seem ambitious, but a closer look at the trends shows it’s well within reach. The Patriots have been gashed by running backs all season, allowing 142.5 all-purpose yards per game to the position. At home, their run defense has been even shakier, surrendering 130 rushing yards per game.
Enter De’Von Achane, who has been electric since Tua Tagovailoa returned from his stint on injured reserve. Achane is averaging a scorching 106.3 total yards per game with Tua back in action. Achane faces minimal competition for backfield touches, and the Dolphins are a comfortable seven-point favorite against New England, creating a game script that favors a heavy workload for the Phins’ star running back.
In short, all signs point to another standout performance for Achane. The matchup, trends, and circumstances align perfectly. I’m all in on Achane this weekend.
Aaron Jones OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Vikings’ recent move toward a more balanced offensive game plan could be music to the ears of Jones bettors and fantasy owners, and bad news for the Bears’ defense. This shift sets the stage for the veteran back to have a big day in what feels like the perfect bounce-back opportunity after totaling just 39 rushing yards against the measly Jaguars in Week 11.
Chicago’s run defense has been a glaring weak spot all season. They rank 23rd in the league, giving up an average of 130 rushing yards per game. Even worse, they’re allowing a hefty 4.9 yards per carry to running backs, which puts them 28th in the league. In their last two games, they’ve allowed lead backs like the Packers’ Josh Jacobs and the Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson to easily hit 74+ yards on the ground.
With Jones’ sharp vision, quick feet, and the Vikings showing a clear commitment to pounding the rock, this matchup is ripe for the taking. Chicago’s struggles against the run make the over on Jones’ rushing prop not just enticing but downright tempting for anyone eyeing this matchup. Plus, given that Minnesota is a road favorite, the Vikings may lean on Jones if they get an early lead at Soldier Field.
Mike Evans 60+ Receiving Yards (+105)
Mike Evans is back in action this weekend after missing four games with a hamstring injury, and he’s ready to roll. The star receiver said he could’ve suited up in Week 10, so coming out of the Bucs’ bye week, he should be fresh and firing. Evans has also been a full participant in practice, which is always a great sign.
The Bucs face the New York Giants, and Evans will line up against rookie corner Deonte Banks. Despite showing glimpses of great coverage play during his rookie season, Banks has allowed the second-most fantasy points per route run to opposing wide receivers this season. Translation? It’s a dream matchup for Evans to make a splashy return.
Through his first seven games, Evans posted a 19.3% target share and a commanding 37.2% share of the Bucs’ air yards. And with Chris Godwin out for the season due to an ankle injury, Evans is poised to shoulder an even bigger load in Tampa Bay’s passing game given the lack of secondary weapons around him. Outside of Evans and Cade Otton, Baker Mayfield doesn’t have many trustworthy weapons. That’s great news for anyone looking to cash in on Evans’ alternative yardage props.
Mike Evans – Alt Receiving Yards Odds:
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70+ Yards: +162
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80+ Yards: +220
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90+ Yards: +300
With his friendly matchup and expanded role, Evans feels undervalued in the yardage market this week. Laddering his props could pay off handsomely—taking a shot at 90+ yards at +300 is especially enticing. I might sprinkle half a unit on that.
But there’s even more on the line for Evans: the streak. He’s logged 10 straight seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards—a feat that spans his entire NFL career. Missing four games has put that streak at risk, and Evans now needs to average 95 yards per game the rest of the way to keep it alive. Even Baker Mayfield chimed in, saying the streak “is important to us,” showing just how much the team supports Evans’ pursuit of history.
While the Bucs focus on their playoff push, expect Evans to play a key role—and Week 12 against the Giants could be the perfect springboard. If you’re betting on Evans, the odds and the narrative both suggest it’s time to go big!
Travis Kelce OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Travis Kelce may have stumbled against the Bills, but all signs point to a strong rebound this week. His recent performances remind us just how dominant he can be. Over the three games before Buffalo, Kelce delivered the following stat lines:
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8 catches on 12 targets for 64 yards
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14 catches on 16 targets for 100 yards
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10 catches on 12 targets for 90 yards
His catches prop is set at 6.5, and here’s the kicker: every time Kelce has hit seven or more catches this season, he’s also cleared 55+ receiving yards—averaging a stellar 83 yards per game in those contests.
This matchup against the Panthers is tailor-made for a Kelce bounce-back. Carolina is struggling mightily against tight ends, allowing the second-most production to the position (over 5 catches and 60 yards per game). To sweeten the pot, they’ve surrendered 5 touchdowns to tight ends in their last four games. A Kelce anytime touchdown prop at +105 feels like a smart play here, which I will consider sprinkling a half unit on.
With the Chiefs looking to make a statement after their first loss and Patrick Mahomes targeting his favorite weapon early and often, Kelce is primed for a big day. Whether it’s moving the chains or finding the end zone, all the numbers suggest Kelce will remind us why he’s STILL the best tight end in the game.
