Week 6 NFL Player Props
For the fourth time in five weeks, we had a profitable weekend of wagering. We were one Terry McLaurin dropped pass from a 6-1 slate but we’ll have to suffice for a 5-2 record in Week 5. Still, due to our triple-unit bet on Jayden Reed, we had a massive +3.8-Unit week and are now +7.0 units and 21-13 on the season as we gear up for Week 6 NFL Player Props.
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 6 NFL Player Props!
Jayden Daniels OVER 223.5 Passing Yards (-110)
This game boasts a 51.5-point total, the second-highest on the slate. The Commanders’ rookie QB is off to a scorching start, and the numbers back it up. The Ravens have been giving up an NFL-worst 304 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Daniels has exceeded expectations four games in a row with 226, 254, 233, and 238 yards against the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns, respectively.
Jayden Daniels will finish what we started and be the Franchise QB the city deserves. @JayD__5 🫡 pic.twitter.com/p69G0xUadX
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) October 10, 2024
Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has been dialing up game plans that make life as smooth as possible for Daniels, and there’s no reason to think that will change in this matchup. Expect the rookie to stay hot and capitalize on a vulnerable Ravens defense! Baltimore put up a massive 41 points in Week 5 so expect Daniels to air it out in an attempt to keep up with Lamar Jackson and company. I may even sprinkle an extra unit on this wager as I expect Baltimore to shut down the run but struggle in the secondary.
Jordan Love OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200)
Jordan Love is one of my top-ranked quarterbacks in Week 6 of the fantasy football season, and it’s easy to see why.
He’s currently No. 2 in the NFL with 291 passing yards per game, and he’s in a fantastic spot playing at home, where HC Matt LaFleur thrives—29-17 ATS (with a 20.9% ROI) and 35-11 on the moneyline (16.9% ROI) according to Action Network. Plus, the Cardinals are ranked dead last in defensive dropback success rate (57.4%). The stars seem to be aligning for a big game.
But even beyond his ideal matchup, Love’s consistency in this market makes this a great wager. He’s hit the over on his passing TD prop in every game this year with at least two TDs. Last season, after the Week 6 bye, he went over 1.5 TDs in 11 of 14 games. The last time he didn’t hit the over on passing TDs was back in Week 14 of last season. The guy just keeps throwing touchdowns.
And it doesn’t hurt that he’s got talented pass-catchers around him—Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and Tucker Kraft are all capable of making big plays.
At -200, it’s a bit of juice, but with the Packers favored by 5 in a game that has a solid 47.5-point total, points should be flowing, and Love is set to deliver again!
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Detroit Lions love pounding the rock, and while it can be tricky picking which running back to back with their dynamic two-headed monster in the backfield when you’re up against a run defense as weak as the Dallas Cowboys, there’s no wrong choice! That said, I’ve got my sights set on one Lions RB for this Sunday’s showdown, Jahmyr Gibbs. His odds are looking great and I’m all in on Gibbs having a fantastic game against the Cowboys.
Sure, David Montgomery has gotten more carries this season, but Gibbs has led the team in rushes in two of the last three games. He’s averaging over 14 carries per game and has easily surpassed his yardage total in those matchups—cranking out an impressive average of 82 rushing yards per game.
But here’s the real kicker: Gibbs is the more explosive runner. He’s averaging a full yard more per carry than Montgomery, forces more missed tackles, and his breakaway run percentage (a whopping 35.4%) dwarfs Montgomery’s 15.4%.
The Lions’ offensive line? They’re third in run block win rate, and the team as a whole ranks sixth in rushing yards per game. They’ve got a major advantage over a Dallas defense that’s struggled against strong rushing teams. The Cowboys are ranked 30th in run-stop win rate and have been steamrolled by good rushing attacks—giving up 464 yards to the Saints and Ravens.
Detroit will want to control the clock and protect its shaky pass defense from Dak Prescott, so expect both Gibbs and Montgomery to get plenty of touches. But with Gibbs’ explosiveness, he’s poised to do some serious damage!
Roschon Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+230)
I can’t believe we’re getting +230 odds on Roschon Johnson to score a touchdown! Johnson has scored three touchdowns in his last two games, and he’s priced as short as +130 on bet365. Sure, those touchdowns came against weaker defenses like the Panthers and Rams, but things aren’t looking much tougher for the Bears in Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who rank 30th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed.
While Johnson is the second option in Chicago’s backfield behind D’Andre Swift, he’s carved out a valuable role as the short-yardage and goal-line back. He’s had four carries inside the five-yard line and converted three of them into touchdowns. In contrast, Swift has five carries from the same range but has turned those into -7 yards and only one score.
I’m not expecting Johnson to rack up a ton of yards against the Jags’ defense, but I do expect Chicago to find themselves in a couple of goal-line situations. When they do, Johnson is the guy who will be trusted with the ball. At +230, this is a fun play that could pay off big!
Terry McLaurin Longest Reception OVER 23.5 Yards (-110)
Last week, McLaurin burned us with a dropped pass that would have resulted in a two-unit swing. Nonetheless, McLaurin still had a great game and remains Jayden Daniels’ go-to option so we’re going back to the well on Scary Terry.
This is the perfect blend of recent performance, a favorable matchup, and a potential game script boost for McLaurin this week. McLaurin has been on fire lately, leading all wide receivers with 11 targets of 20+ air yards over the past three weeks. He and Daniels have been connecting in a big way, with McLaurin racking up 264 yards and reeling in catches of 23, 27, 55, and 66 yards during that stretch. For the season, he ranks third among wide receivers in deep-target rate and average depth of target (per Pro Football Focus).
Now, Washington faces their toughest test yet against the Baltimore Ravens. But this isn’t the Ravens defense we’re used to seeing—Baltimore has allowed the second-most passing yards, yards per completion, and 20+ yard receptions (23) in the league.
McLaurin is poised to capitalize on this, especially given that he’ll likely be lined up against CB Brandon Stephens. Stephens ranks 45th or worse (out of 64 corners with 75 coverage snaps) in targeted rate, yards per target, and explosive pass plays allowed.
And with the Commanders potentially needing to chase points against a potent Ravens offense, we could see Washington lean into a pass-heavy game plan, further increasing McLaurin’s chances of busting loose for another deep bomb. All signs point to another big play or two from Scary Terry!
Chris Godwin OVER 5.5 Receptions (-125)
Wide receiver-cornerback matchups don’t always warrant much attention, but the Mike Evans-Marshon Lattimore rivalry is an exception with a real history to consider. These two have clashed for years, and Lattimore has consistently managed to limit Evans’ production.
Mike Evans vs. the Saints since Marshon Lattimore was drafted.
Evans has reached 13 FF pts vs. the Saints once….way back in 2018. pic.twitter.com/FjTrcQnDtD
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 10, 2024
That brings us to Chris Godwin, who is thriving in new offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s system. Godwin has been on fire this season, surpassing 5.5 receptions in five of six games, thanks to an impressive average of 8.0 targets per game. And in the one game he failed to surpass this prop, he fell just short with five receptions. The volume is there, and he’s making the most of it. He’s also had consistent success against the Saints, going over this mark in four of his last five matchups with them across multiple seasons. And QB Baker Mayfield is playing some of the best football of his career. Given the circumstances, Godwin’s poised to have yet another big game against New Orleans.
Dalton Schultz OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
With Nico Collins sidelined and Joe Mixon dealing with injuries, Houston’s offense could struggle against the Patriots. While many will turn to Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell for production, sportsbooks have already adjusted their props to reflect their expanded roles. Dalton Schultz, however, hasn’t seen the same adjustment, making him a great value pick.
The Patriots have been vulnerable against tight ends, allowing 53.0 receiving yards per game (8th-most in the NFL) and 12.05 yards per catch (3rd-most). Schultz has posted 34 yards in back-to-back games against the Bills and Jaguars and is coming off a season-high six targets. Given these factors, Schultz looks like the safest bet to exceed his yardage total in this matchup.
Plus, with Jerod Mayo—a Belichick disciple—likely scheming to take away Houston’s biggest threat (now Diggs), Schultz could be the key beneficiary. It’s a perfect setup for him to deliver.
