Week 4 NFL Player Props
Week 3 is in the books and we are cooking after a third consecutive profitable week. After beginning the season 9-4 (+6.3 Units), we produced a 5-2 record in Week 3 (+2.6 Units) due to a double-unit bet on Jauan Jennings after a pivot from George Kittle (who was a surprise inactive on Sunday). On the season, we are now 14-6 (70% conversion rate) and +8.9 Units! Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going with our Week 4 NFL Player Props.
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 4 NFL prop bets! Like last week, I’ll be featuring one Thursday Night Football wager since our Week 3 TNF Anytime Touchdown bet cashed!
Lamar Jackson OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Coming off a heavy workload, Derrick Henry may take a bit of a backseat this week, with Lamar Jackson poised to steal the spotlight—just like we saw in Baltimore’s season opener. And given the context of this matchup, it makes sense. The Bills’ front seven has shown some vulnerability, especially when it comes to stopping the run, despite their impressive 3rd-place rank in Run Defense Win Rate. A closer look reveals they sit at a lowly 26th in PFF’s Run Defense Grade, signaling potential cracks in their armor.
Lamar has cleared this line in two of three games this season. The two times he did it, he decimated the line with 122 rushing yards in Week 1 and 87 rushing yards in Week 3. He’s averaging 84.6 rushing yards per game through three weeks of the season and is going to need to use his legs to keep the chains moving.
#Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson is rushing at a RECORD PACE after three games⚡️
Jackson could shatter his record if he keeps it up📈#RavensFlock #NFL pic.twitter.com/UUe3jsom4q
— Football Forever (@fballforeverhq) September 25, 2024
What makes this matchup even more intriguing is Buffalo’s defensive scheme. Their tendency to anchor linebackers in coverage while relying heavily on just their front four to generate pressure leaves them exposed, especially against mobile quarterbacks like Jackson. Baltimore’s offensive line, which ranks above league average in both Run Block Win Rate and PFF Grade, is well-positioned to keep Buffalo’s pressure at bay. With minimal resistance up front, Lamar Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of open rushing lanes.
Anthony Richardson OVER .5 Interceptions (-125)
Anthony Richardson has been a disaster in the first three weeks of the season, to the point where Michael Pittman is now being considered a “drop” candidate in fantasy football. With Richardson leading the league in interceptions (six), fumbling twice, and posting a dismal 55.9 QB rating, it’s been a rough start for the young QB.
Anthony Richardson’s 6.0 completion-to-interception ratio is tied for the 3rd worst by a quarterback with 50 or more pass attempts in the first 3 weeks since 2000 https://t.co/NgcseoLoPn pic.twitter.com/ETlvJp0ZqY
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) September 23, 2024
Now, he’s about to face off against a Steelers defense loaded with stars like T.J. Watt, Patrick Queen, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. One interception seems like a modest prediction against a Steelers defense allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (158.3 yards) and the fewest points per game in the league (8.7 points). Kirk Cousins and Bo Nix each threw two picks against this Steelers defense before Justin Herbert protected the football in Week 3. Still, this secondary has four picks in three games while the D-line has produced nine sacks, an average of three per game.
If Richardson struggles again, don’t be surprised if Joe Flacco’s debut in Indianapolis happens sooner than expected! I’ve been an A-Rich truther for a long time but his early-season struggles are quite concerning and I anticipate the Colts leaning on Jonathan Taylor in Week 4 against this ferocious defense that comes in with all the good vibes in the world after topping the Los Angeles Chargers to remain undefeated.
Breece Hall OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Hall has failed to eclipse this line in any of the first three games of the 2024 regular season but after finding the end zone in three consecutive weeks, the workhorse in New York has all the momentum he needs to shred the Broncos’ defense on Sunday. The 1-2 Denver Broncos are stingy against the pass. They allow the second-fewest yards through the air (133.3) but the interior of the line is much more susceptible to chunk plays. Denver allows the 11th-most rushing yards per game (126) and Hall might be the most explosive back they have faced to date.
Although there are some concerns that Hall is ceding some touches to Braelon Allen, Hall is the undisputed RB1 in this backfield and game flow should favor him. The Jets looked amazing on Thursday Night Football against the New England Patriots and as long as the Broncos keep this game somewhat competitive, Hall should have all the opportunities to soar past 66 rushing yards. After all, he has seen 20+ touches in each of his first three games of the 2024 campaign. Not only do I expect the young stud to produce closer to 80 rushing yards, but I just might be sprinkling a little wager on his Anytime Touchdown (-145) prop considering he’s scored in every game this season!
Chuba Hubbard UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Hubbard is coming off his best game of the season after the Panthers benched former No. 1 pick Bryce Young in favor of the “Red Rifle,” Andy Dalton. The quarterback change made a massive difference for the Panthers’ offense as Dalton became the first quarterback this season to toss three touchdowns and clear 300 yards. Hubbard also eclipsed the century mark with 114 rushing yards and hauled in five passes for 55 yards and one trip to the end zone.
But that was against a reeling Las Vegas Raiders team that had players “make business decisions” to practically give up during the game. That won’t happen against a desperate, winless Cincinnati Bengals team with Super Bowl aspirations who now have their backs up against the wall.
Although Hubbard looked great last week, I expect the Bengals to come out hot after letting one slip away on Monday Night Football to the Washington Commanders. Cincinnati’s season is essentially over if they lose this football game so I think they will be laser-focused on stopping the run and forcing Dalton to beat them through the air. While Hubbard will surely be involved, if the Panthers fall behind quickly, we could see more Miles Sanders and Raheem Blackshear. Even last week when game flow favored Hubbard, he still managed just 58% of the team’s offensive snaps.
All in all, I expect the Bengals to come out very strong forcing the Panthers to abandon the run game. Take the Under.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 79.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
After dominating the league in 2023, CeeDee Lamb’s start to the 2024 season hasn’t been quite as explosive as expected. So far, he’s snagged just 13 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown, averaging 72.7 yards per game. While those numbers might not jump off the page, Lamb is still a constant threat to go off for 100+ yards any given Sunday. His talent and playmaking ability make him a ticking time bomb for opposing defenses—don’t be surprised if he turns things around in a flash!
CeeDee Lamb is currently averaging a career-high 16.8 yards per reception, showcasing his big-play ability. He’s already hauled in a 65-yard catch this season during a 44-19 loss to the New Orleans Saints. Despite a slower statistical start, Lamb remains the centerpiece of the Dallas Cowboys’ offense when it’s firing on all cylinders. With 24 targets through just three games, it’s clear that the Cowboys are still looking his way frequently, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts piling up the yards and touchdowns.
CeeDee Lamb loves playing against the NFC East rival Giants! In eight career matchups, he’s racked up 52 catches for 722 yards and three touchdowns. He’s even hit 105 yards or more in three of those games. On average, that’s a solid 6.5 catches and 90.3 yards every time he lines up against New York.
If the G-Men keep this primetime game even somewhat close, Dak Prescott will look early and often for his go-to target. While New York’s secondary has done a serviceable job this season, they ranked in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass in 2023. And the last time these two teams faced off, Week 10 of the 2023 season, Lamb went bonkers, torching the defense for 11 receptions, 165 total yards, and two touchdowns. The breakout party is coming in primetime for Lamb in Week 4.
Ceedee Lamb is the first player in NFL history with three straight games of 10+ catches and 150+ yards.
His day vs. the Giants:
◻️ 11 REC
◻️ 165 TOT YDS
◻️ 2 TD pic.twitter.com/T1oxmrskqE— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 13, 2023
DJ Moore OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Despite Caleb Williams’ struggles, the rookie seemed to take a step in the right direction during Chicago’s Week 3 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Although he tossed two interceptions, he also threw for 363 passing yards (more than he did in the first two weeks combined). Williams also threw his first two touchdowns of his young career.
Moore has seen a whopping 28 targets over the first three games of the season and cleared this line on Sunday after securing eight receptions for 78 yards. Even with Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet seeing a ton of usage in Week 3 (and Keenan Allen on the mend), Moore is the WR1 in this offense and the Bears know they need to get him the ball in space if they want to win football games.
This week, the Bears take on a Los Angeles Rams defense that was just shredded by Jauan Jennings to the tune of 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns. While I wouldn’t expect similar numbers from Moore, I do anticipate the newly-paid wideout to have his best game of the season against a team that has been decimated by injuries. The Rams are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (248.7) and the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. Plus, The Rams rank last in both yards per attempt (10.0) and EPA per dropback (-0.48) when playing zone coverage this season.
Los Angeles is still missing defensive backs John Johnson III and Darius Williams, while Tre Tomlinson and Derion Kendrick are out for the year. Plus CB Cobie Durant has been dealing with a toe injury for the past couple of weeks. There simply isn’t a lot of depth in that secondary and if Keenan Allen is healthy enough to suit up for the first time since Week 1 for the Bears, that could create some big mismatches for Moore. Pound the Over.
Dalton Schultz UNDER 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Schultz was on the field for 96% of Houston’s offensive snaps in a favorable Week 3 game script in which the Texans trailed Minnesota from the get-go. However, the veteran tight end, whose been hobbled by a knee injury, managed to haul in just two of his season-high five targets for a measly 11 yards. Schultz remains the 4th or 5th option for C.J. Stroud and has just seven receptions for 48 yards through the first three games of the season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars allow the third-most passing yards per game (252.3) but they’ve done a great job at containing opposing tight ends. In Week 1, Miami’s Jonnu Smith hauled in just one reception for seven yards. In Week 2, Cleveland’s Jordan Akins (filling in for David Njoku), caught his lone target for 10 yards. Finally, in Week 3, the Jaguars surrendered meaningful yardage to a tight end as Josh Allen connected with Dalton Kincaid three times for 41 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Dawson Knox collected just one reception for a mere seven yards.
Jacksonville has linebackers talented enough in coverage to make things difficult for Schultz and Stroud’s first looks will be Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and his running backs. Schultz is a reliable security blanket but the Jaguars struggled to put much pressure on Josh Allen in Week 3 and if Stroud is given that same time in the pocket, it’s going to be a long day for the Jaguars’ defense. However, I expect the Houston receivers to do the bulk of the damage. Until Schultz proves otherwise, keep hammering the Under.
