Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1

What a way to kick off a new season! After seven months, a rematch of last year’s AFC title game opens the 2024 season. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 breaks down the fantasy and sports betting prospects for the season opener.

Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs were able to squeeze by the Ravens with a 45-yard field goal with three seconds left. That set up the club to win their second consecutive title. However, winning a third gets off to an ominous start against that same Baltimore team thirsting for revenge.

The Ravens enter the 2024 season with the third-highest Super Bowl odds. Only the 49ers and these Chiefs rank higher. These teams are familiar with one another and match up well. But if the Ravens want to prove they can make it back to the big game, they must find a way to win at Arrowhead.

Vegas sees these two teams as evenly matched. The Ravens are the standard three-point underdogs on the road. Additionally, the total of the game has risen to 47.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Baltimore Ravens	6	21	1	4	4
Kansas City Chiefs	9	6	19	9	15

These teams are fairly evenly matched on both sides of the ball. While Baltimore employs a run-first approach, the Chiefs will attack through the air.

On the other side of the ball, these two teams allowed the fewest points in the NFL in 2023. Baltimore ranked sixth overall and led the NLF with 31 turnovers. Conversely, Kansas City surrendered the second-fewest points and ranked fourth versus the pass.

For Baltimore, sticking with their strength should be the game plan. Instead of attacking through the air, the Ravens will attempt to slow down the pace and stick to what they do best. Run the ball.

There are lots of new elements to Kansas City’s offense. Expect Reid to take plenty of downfield shots. However, Baltimore’s secondary is stacked and received reinforcement in the first round with CB Nate Wiggins.

Baltimore Offense

When last active, Lamar Jackson threw his third-most passing attempts in a game in a losing effort. Conversely, Jackson rushed just eight times. Baltimore got away from the ground-based offense that resulted in a 14-3 record. That was particularly baffling considering the Chiefs allowed ranked 18th against the run.

Our Week 1 projections think Jackson rebounds. It stands to reason that Jackson’s passing numbers could be softer. However, his rushing attempts will rise. Jackson is an elite starter in Week 1.

Derrick Henry checks some worrisome boxes. He’s 30 with a ton of usage. However, Henry was still at elite levels of creating yards after contact and churning out short-yardage pr0duction. Behind Baltimore’s standout O-line, view Herny as a locked-in RB1 even without much production in the passing game.

Justice Hill will act as the third-down back. However, with Henry commanding the early-down work, Hill is little more than a middling DFS option.

At wide receiver, Zay Flowers is the only reliable option. Flowers made some big plays in that AFC Championship game. However, his fumble was a huge turning point. Look for Flowers to be primed for revenge on the big stage. But one thing to keep in mind- the Chiefs allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last season.

Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman are Baltimore’s ancillary wideouts but have no value outside of being DFS dart throws.

At tight end, the Ravens have one of the top duos in football. Mark Andrews is a top-tier NFL and fantasy option. Despite missing seven games, Andrews still posted a TE1 campaign in 2023. However, Andrews missed most of the tail-end of the season and was limited to just two grabs in the AFC title game.

That said, Andrews is fully healthy now and will be a huge part of Baltimore’s Week 1 plan. The other tight end, Isaiah Likely posted excellent production while Andrews was sidelined. Therefore, the Ravens are expected to emphasize more ’12’ sets in 2024. View Likely as a TE2 with a potentially volatile range of outcomes in a tough matchup.

Kansas City Offense

Even in a “down” year for Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs managed to win their second-straight title. Although Mahomes completed a career-best 67.2% of his passes, he had his lowest passing and TD numbers since 2019. A Baltimore secondary that allowed the third-fewest fantasy points and second-fewest touchdown passes will be a formidable foe.

Still, the Chiefs made significant upgrades to Mahomes’s supporting cast. Additionally, the Chiefs are favored at home in a primetime game. This points to another solid fantasy outing for one of the best signal-callers in history.

In the backfield, Isiah Pacheco will play the majority of snaps. Newly signed Samaje Perine will also chip in on passing downs, but Pacheco is the best bet to see 15 touches in a tough matchup. View Pacheco as a modest RB2 and Perine as a potential PPR option in daily or deeper leagues with extra flex spots.

Carson Steele is the potential wild card. Steele could factor in on short yardage, making him an intriguing TD-or-Bust option.

The Chiefs had no downfield element last year. That was a huge factor in the offenses’s steep and sudden decline.

Enter Hollywood Brown and first-round pick Xavier Worthy. Brown (shoulder) is already hurt and has been ruled out. That makes Worthy the best bet to make a boom play.

Expect Rashee Rice to lead the group in targets and remain a solid WR2/3. The Ravens did a good job on Rice in the AFC Championship, but he still corralled 8-of-9 targets.

TE Travis Kelce showed some signs of slowing down last year. Kelce was still an elite fantasy option. However, with added target completion and an imposing matchup, expectations should be tempered. He’s still the odds-on favorite to lead the Chiefs in targets and would be a contrarian captain’s choice in DFS lineups.

Prediction & Best Bet

These are glorious times. Football is back and we get a banger of an opener. There are a ton of fantasy ramifications on the line before the first Sunday of the season even kicks off. That includes this matchup.

Kansas City has covered seven of their last 10 games at Arrowhead. The Chiefs have outright won 14 of their last 18 home contests, but they haven’t been blowing teams out. The UNDER has hit in five-0f-seven.

Conversely, the Ravens are virtually even with the defending champs, entering the game as mere three-point dogs. Motivation to avenge last season’s finale is also a factor.

Baltimore has won five straight away games, including covering four of the five. However, the Ravens have struggled to beat Mahomes, going 1-5 in their last six games versus KC.

Despite the firepower, this feels like it will be a hard-fought contest between two of the league’s better defenses from last season. The total has gone under in five of Baltimore’s past seven road games.

Best Bet: UNDER 47

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