Week 17 NFL Player Props
Another profitable betting week is in the books here at FullTime Fantasy. After going 5-2 in Week 16, we are now 48-35 (+13.8 Units) with just two weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season. After a midseason lull, we are once again on a roll with three consecutive weeks of profit. Our Week 17 NFL Player Props aims to keep the winning ways going.
As always, I will list my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 17’s slate of NFL matchups. All 32 teams will be in action with a pivotal matchup between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys on Saturday and no Monday night game this week. The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will close out the week on Sunday night at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 17 NFL Player Props and continue our profitable NFL season.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
After producing just 14 points against the Raiders in Week 16, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be very motivated when they take on a Cincinnati Bengals franchise that has had their number in previous regular season matchups. And despite Kansas City’s struggles on offense last week, the one silver lining was that Mahomes was able to find a lot of running space. The signal caller registered a season-high 10 rushing attempts and tallied 53 yards in the Chiefs’ Christmas Day loss. Nine of those rushing attempts were on quarterback scrambles when Mahomes was under duress from Maxx Crosby and Malcom Kounce.
This week, the Chiefs’ atrocious offensive line will have to block Trey Hendrickson. With Isiah Pacheco likely sidelined, I’m anticipating Mahomes using his legs yet again out of necessity as the Bengals look to bring pressure. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs face a Bengals defense that plays man-to-man coverage at a Top-10 rate. With the defensive backs zoning in on the receivers, there will be fewer eyes on Mahomes if he looks to take off from the pocket. The Bengals have surrendered a lot of yardage to mobile quarterbacks this season. Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy averaged 50+ rushing yards per game against the Bengals this season.
Mahomes ranks sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards this season and has topped this line 10 times this season already. Given the struggles of the offensive line and Cincinnati’s defensive scheme, this looks like a solid wager. Take the Over.
Dak Prescott OVER 269.5 Passing Yards (-114)
It’s hard not to back Prescott in Week 17 at home where the Cowboys are a perfect 7-0, especially when they are hosting a Detroit Lions defense that has been shredded by opposing quarterbacks lately. Dak is averaging a whopping 303.6 passing yards per game while completing 74% of his pass attempts at home. He’s surpassed this line in four consecutive home games so it’s hard to envision him not producing yet again with a fairly juicy matchup on the horizon and a boatload of healthy, dynamic playmakers at his disposal, particularly CeeDee Lamb.
The thing about Detroit is that they have a high-powered offense that plays with pace. They have dropped 30+ points in five of their previous seven contests. However, this team also has a pretty dreadful secondary. In fact, over their last six games, they are surrendering over 308 passing yards per game. This is the perfect combination for Prescott. The Lions are going to put points up on the board but Prescott is going to have the opportunity to match that pace. Last week, this same Lions secondary was thrashed by Vikings backup Nick Mullens to the tune of 411 yards!
Given Prescott’s success at home, the expected high-scoring affair (highest Over/Under this week), the fact that they are playing in a dome, and a matchup against a secondary that has struggled as of late, I expect Prescott to bounce back after last week’s letdown performance. Give me the Over!
Christian McCaffrey OVER 86.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
CMC is simply a beast and now he gets to face a Washington Commanders defense that not only traded perhaps its two best players in Chase Young and Montez Sweat but they were terrible even when they had those playmakers. Now, this defense has been stripped to the bones and it’s hard to not envision McCaffrey having a vintage performance as San Francisco still needs to win out to clinch the top spot in the NFC.
Washington’s rushing defense is particularly exploitable. They have allowed 90+ rushing yards in 14 of 15 contests this season. Last week, this Washington defense yielded 95 rushing yards to Breece Hall, a Jets’ rushing attack that ranks dead last in rush EPA/play. We predicted that and cashed in on that but this defense shouldn’t have been that bad last week against the run. They also have allowed 247 rushing yards to lead backs over the last two weeks. I anticipate that number to increase significantly against such a talented player like McCaffrey.
After being shredded by the Jets, the Commanders face a Niners offense that ranks second in the NFL in rush EPA/play and third in rush success rate, according to Pro Football Focus. CMC has seen 84% of the rushing opportunities over San Francisco’s previous seven games where he’s tallied 106.1 yards per game, has produced 93+ yards six times, and has topped the century mark in four of his last five.
Although Brock Purdy may not be 100% healthy, I believe he will play. That said, even with Sam Darnold under center, the Niners are going to lean on their best player and that player is Christian McCaffrey. Either way, the Niners are going to rely on their stud to help protect their vulnerable signal caller. Purdy threw four interceptions in the Niners’ loss to the Baltimore Ravens so the Niners will do anything to get back in the winning column. Considering they are heavy favorites, CMC should see a lot of touches in the second half as the Niners look to kill some clock with an early lead.
With so much on the line including the No. 1 spot in the NFC, I believe McCaffrey will do a ton of damage right out of the gate and have no problem eclipsing this line against this horrendous defense. I’d consider parlaying this prop with an Anytime Touchdown from CMC as well. He will find the end zone too. I’m forecasting a monster game from CMC so take the Over.
D’Andre Swift OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
During the Eagles’ three-game losing streak, it seemed like they somewhat abandoned the run but D’Andre Swift has been productive in back-to-back weeks and now gets a date with a terrible Arizona Cardinals run defense in Week 17. It’s been a little hard to predict Swift’s output because his usage has been a bit sporadic.
From Week 2 to Week 9, Swift was averaging 17 carries for 76.5 yards per game. However, those numbers significantly declined in the back half of the season resulting in him averaging fewer than 11 carries over the next four games. That said, Nick Sirianni has clearly made Swift a focal point of the offense over the last two weeks. The dynamic running back has seen 18 and 20 carries in his last two outings and he’s accumulated 166 yards over those two games. Swift was excellent last week against the New York Giants and displayed beautiful vision while also having a great burst.
This week, he gets a Cardinals team that surrenders the second-most rushing yards per game to running backs this season. In fact, Arizona has allowed more than 110 rushing yards in 13 of 17 contests in 2023. Last week, they allowed Khalil Herbert to match down the field for 112 yards! Khalil Herbert! That’s the fourth time in the last five weeks that an opponent has tallied that many rushing yards against this Arizona front seven.
Philly has always been a run-heavy offense and they perform at their best when they run the ball consistently. Considering the Eagles should take a commanding lead against one of the worst teams in the NFL, Swift should get tons of touches in garbage time while the Eagles nurse a lead. Take the Over.
Cooper Kupp OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
It’s been tough to predict whether Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp would go off in this Rams’ offense but this is a week when I anticipate both to be successful. The Rams draw the New York Giants whose two top corners are really banged up and on the injury report — Deonte Banks and Adoree’ Jackson. The Giants allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season and it’s tough to envision them stopping this Rams’ aerial attack that has been completely on point in the month of December.
Over their last three games, the G Men have allowed an average of 24 receptions to opposing wide receivers. That trend is likely to continue this week against such dominant pass catchers.
Kyren Williams is still going to be a focal point in the Rams’ offense but I do think Sean McVay lets Stafford air it out as the Rams look to continue their hot streak and reach the postseason. Cooper Kupp dropped two potential touchdowns last week and I think Stafford will do everything humanly possible to get his star wideout’s confidence boosted heading into the playoffs. That starts with a solid connection for this Week 17 road game at MetLife. Los Angeles will continue to pepper Kupp and Nacua with targets and this week, I think Kupp has a huge game against a defense that gives up plenty of big splash plays. Take the Over.
Chris Olave OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Aside from a terrible performance in Week 15 in which the Saints relied much more on the run than the pass against the Carolina Panthers, Chris Olave has been an absolute menace as of late, averaging 112.5 yards per game in his previous four other contests. He’s also produced 114+ yards in three of his last four matchups.
This week, there are major playoff implications as the Saints face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has allowed the most yards to wide receivers this season, has allowed an opposing receiver to post 90+ yards in seven of its previous nine matchups, and ranks 25th in EPA allowed per play. According to Pro Football Focus, Tampa Bay is also terrible at covering the splash zone. It allows a 62.7% catch rate, 13.5 yards per coverage snap, and an NFL-worst 52% explosive pass play rate in the area between the numbers and 10+ yards downfield.
This is a great matchup for Derek Carr who performs better against the blitz. And the Bucs blitz at the third-highest rate in the league. Olave should be able to find quick separation on quick throws from Carr. Not to mention, the Bucs could be missing CB Calrton Davis and top pass rusher Shaq Barrett this week. Both are highly questionable and their respective potential absences could weaken an already less than mediocre pass defense.
Olave has been dominant as of late and has a great chance at continuing that trend simply due to the positive matchup. I expect Carr and Olave’s chemistry to continue to grow and if the Saints truly want to compete in this matchup, they are going to have to throw the ball downfield. The Saints don’t have a ton of dependable options in the passing game so I expect Olave to be littered with targets. Take the Over.
Dalton Kincaid OVER 2.5 Receptions (-130)
Dalton Kincaid was becoming a focal point in Buffalo’s offense before Dawson Knox returned from his injury. Now, Kincaid’s low over/under for receptions isn’t shocking simply due to his lackluster usage in recent weeks. The Bills have relied on the run a lot more and have given James Cook a ton of opportunities in recent weeks. Kincaid has just one reception over his last two games.
However, I expect Kincaid to bounce back in Week 17 against the New England Patriots. The Pats’ defense has been dominant against the run so I think Buffalo will be forced to air it out. No team has been better on a per-play basis against the run than New England (3.2 yards per carry allowed).
We also know that Bill Belichick loves to take away an opposing team’s top threat, which means that the Patriots are going to double-team Stefon Diggs and force someone else to beat this secondary. When these two teams met in Week 7, Diggs managed just 58 receiving yards though he did find the end zone. And with Buffalo struggling to get much going on the ground, Kincaid became Josh Allen’s go-to target across the middle of the field. The rookie finished with eight receptions for 75 yards that week. Can Kincaid and Allen get back to that level of chemistry? Perhaps not, but three receptions is a small number for someone as talented as Kincaid.
Kincaid may not reproduce his Week 7 numbers, but after averaging five receptions over his first 12 games, he should hit the over again here.
