Week 16 NFL Player Props
Just three weeks left in the regular season. It’s been a profitable year if you’ve been following this column. We are now 43-33 (+11.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports betting is all about riding the hot streaks and surviving the cold spells. Now that we’ve had a few profitable weeks after our first cold streak of the year, let’s see if we can continue to ride the wave and make some more cash in Week 16.
As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 16’s slate of NFL matchups. All 32 teams will be in action during the holidays and we’ll be treated to three games on Christmas this Monday as well as some action on Saturday! Lots of football in the coming days!
Fantasy football players have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 16 NFL prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.
Mason Rudolph UNDER 191.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After Kenny Pickett’s injury, the Steelers moved on to Mitch Trubisky. However, that was short-lived after Trubisky was benched last week in favor of Rudolph. Now, Rudolph will start on Saturday when the Steelers take on a tough Cincinnati Bengals defense. Rudolph has started 10 games in his career.
Although he is 5-4-1 as a starter, it’s hard to envision him being much of an upgrade over Trubisky. After all, Rudolph is mostly known for being attacked by Myles Garrett with his own helmet back in 2019. Still, Pittsburgh is out of options and they have to roll someone out there. Rudolph has averaged 208.1 passing yards per game but I don’t think he’ll reach that mark in a divisional rivalry in cold weather.
The Steelers lack an identity on the offensive side of the football and although Rudolph has several weapons at his disposal including Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and even Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren out of the backfield, Rudolph hasn’t had a lot of reps with these guys.
I anticipate a low-scoring affair in which the Steelers struggle to move the chains. Pittsburgh is a run-first offense but the Bengals are much better at shutting down the run than the pass. If they can effectively contain Harris and Warren in the trenches, Rudolph will struggle to give his receivers space in the secondary. I’m taking the Under.
Baker Mayfield OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)
Mayfield has been a gem in his debut season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s exceeded all expectations as the veteran is completing 63.5% of his passes, has piled up 3,315 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions. Not to mention, he’s coming off a breathtaking performance against the Green Bay Packers in which he posted a perfect QB rating (158.3) while recording 381 yards through the air and four touchdowns!
This week, Mayfield and the Bucs face a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has allowed the seventh-most touchdown passes in the league (23) this season. The veteran signal-caller has eclipsed this line in eight of 14 games this year while the Jags have allowed opposing quarterbacks to toss at least two touchdowns in three of their last five games.
If the Bucs want to continue to fight for the NFC South Divisional title, Mayfield is going to have to air it out against the Jags. And with Chris Godwin coming off his best game of the season, things are looking up for Mayfield who already has established an incredible rapport with Mike Evans. Now that Godwin is beginning to improve and Rachaad White is moving the chains both in the rushing and passing game, the sky is the limit for this offense. At even odds, this seems like a worthwhile investment.
Breece Hall OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Hall and the Jets have a favorable matchup on the horizon against the lowly Washington Commanders. Washington’s run defense has allowed the opposing lead back to average 75.6 rushing yards per game. A whopping 13 of 14 opposing starting running backs have cleared this prop line against Washington this season.
And things haven’t gotten any better as of late as the Commanders allowed a ridiculous 196 rushing yards to the Rams last week. 152 of those yards on the ground came from Kyren Williams. It was the sixth straight game where an opposing lead back topped 63 rushing yards.
Over that span, lead backs are averaging 89.5 yards per game and the team is surrendering 123 rush yards per game overall. It’s not just that the Commanders traded their best defensive players when they knew their season was over but they also allow a lot of splash plays. The Commanders give up the highest number of yards per play in the entire league and have the lowest rate of three-and-outs forced. That’s not a very good combination.
Even though the Jets will likely start third-string quarterback Trevor Siemian, Hall should get plenty of opportunities to find lanes in Week 16. Considering Washington’s offense has struggled just as much as the defense in recent weeks, I anticipate a lot of possessions for the Jets in this game as they focus on controlling the ball. One big run would do it so I’m taking the Over and you should too!
Antonio Gibson 4+ Receptions (-130)
Gibson has corralled at least five receptions in four of his previous six contests. Because Washington likes to check the ball down and given the Jets’ defensive scheme, this bet seems like a slam dunk!
Running backs are targeted at a whopping 25.6% rate against the New York Jets. That’s the league’s highest mark. No defense sees as many dump-offs to opposing running backs as Gang Green. This is partially because the Jets rarely blitz (16.6%, second-to-last in the NFL), which often creates more opportunities for running backs in the passing game.
Even if Brian Robinson Jr. can return, I still like this prop but if Robinson remains sidelined in Week 16, I may throw a couple of units on this one.
Jaxon Smith-Ngigba OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
JSN is becoming a focal point of Seattle’s passing attack. With three games to go in the season, there’s no reason to think that Pete Caroll won’t look for more ways to involve him in the game plan, particularly after his game-winning touchdown catch against the Eagles on Monday Night Football.
Smith-Njigba hauled in all four of his targets for 48 yards and the aforementioned score in Seattle’s Week 15 victory. And that was with Drew Lock under center rather than Geno Smith. The rookie has now seen 22 targets over his last three games, which is more than DK Metcalf (19).
This week, the electric rookie out of Ohio State faces a Titans defense that ranks 21st in DVOA-WR3 and allows 51.5 receiving yards per game to the position. This bodes well for JSN as he is still behind Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the depth chart. The rookie has eclipsed this line in six of 14 games this season but he’s been better as of late and the Titans should be determined to limit Metcalf as much as possible while also stuffing the interior line against Kenneth Walker.
This should open up plenty of opportunities for JSN to blow past this prop in a must-win game to keep the Seahawks’ playoff hopes alive.
Tyler Boyd OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
With Ja’Marr Chase out of the lineup, Tyler Boyd is going to see a significant uptick in targets in Cincinati’s critical divisional matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday. Boyd will likely line up in the slot (a spot Chase tends to occupy in this Bengals’ offense), which means Boyd will be lined up against Chandon Sullivan or veteran Patrick Peterson. Neither is a very scary matchup at their respective points in their careers.
Not to mention, the Steelers have allowed the 10th-most yards to opposing wide receivers this season and will be without star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who injured his knee in last week’s 30-13 thrashing against the Indianapolis Colts.
Despite Pittsburgh’s injuries on both sides of the ball, this game should remain close which means Jake Browning is going to have to air it out if the Bengals want to keep their postseason hopes alive. Boyd has reliable hands, solid speed, and is a very underrated route runner. Just three or four receptions is all it would take for him to smash this prop. Take the over.
Isaiah Likely OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Likely has surpassed his receiving yard prop in three of his last four games and I expect that trend to continue on Christmas when the Ravens take on the 49ers in perhaps the most anticipated matchup of the week. With Mark Andrews on Injured Reserve, Likely has stepped up in his absence. He has recorded 13 receptions for 193 yards and two trips to the end zone in his last three contests. He’s also scored a touchdown in two straight games and has become an integral piece in Baltimore’s passing attack.
Without Keaton Mitchell, the Ravens may struggle to find running lanes, especially against this stout defensive front. Lamar Jackson is going to have to throw the ball a lot if the Ravens have any chance at defeating a Niners team that has looked unstoppable in recent weeks.
That said, the Niners do allow 46.9 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends and Likely is Baltimore’s best healthy pass-catcher at the position. And although San Francisco is very good against the run, they surrender 220+ passing yards per game so there should be able opportunity for Likely with just Zay Flowers ahead of him in the pecking order.
Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman may get some looks but Flowers and Likely should lead the way in the passing game. Likely hasn’t failed to reach 40 receiving yards since Week 11 so I’m taking the Over and betting on continued chemistry between Jackson and the second-year tight end.
