Week 16 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
All five of the top receivers in Week 15 ranked outside of the top 20 coming into the week. Jordan Addison (29.10) posted the high score in fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by Jaylen Waddle (28.20) and Terry McLaurin (26.10). No wideout scored more than 30.00 fantasy points for the second week all year. Twelve other wide receivers scored between 20.00 and 26.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five players by scoring average after 15 weeks:
- Tyreek Hill (23.15)
- CeeDee Lamb (21.66)
- Keenan Allen (20.03)
- A.J. Brown (19.10)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.13)
Also, before we get into the Week 16 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report and RB Report.
Elite Option
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – (9,200/FD – $9,400)
Lamb has a touchdown in six consecutive games (seven total) while offering elite stats over his last eight starts (69/897/9 – 27.96 FPPG in DraftKings scoring). On the downside, he has been a weaker option in 2023 on the road (43/597/2 on 58 targets over seven games – 13.02 FPPG) than at home (28.51 FPPG). His best two games away from Dallas came in Week 6 (7/117) and Week 9 (11/191).
Miami played better defensively over their last five games (13, 13, 15, 28, and 0 points allowed), except for a late fourth quarterback collapse vs. the Titans (two touchdowns over the final three minutes). The Dolphins are about league average vs. wideouts (185/282/13 on 282 targets), with struggles in three games (DEN – 18/257/1, BUF – 13/209/4, LV – 18/209/1). CB Xavien Howard (40/425/2 on 63 targets per PRR) may miss this week’s game with a hip issue. Lamb will most likely see CB Kader Kohou (62/630/6 on 73 targets) in coverage for a good portion of his routes due to him working out of the slot.
The hot hand theory favors Lamb again in this game. But Dak Prescott hasn’t been the same player on the road. Better weather in Miami is a plus. And the Cowboys will need to throw the ball better this week if they expect to compete for a win. Unfortunately, Lamb will be a challenging fit for a DFS lineup in Week 16.
Second Tier Options
Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)
Jefferson started with four productive games (9/150, 11/159, 7/149/1, and 6/85/2). He averaged 11.75 targets, leading to 28.33 fantasy points per game in DraftKings scoring. Over this stretch, the Vikings attempted 157 passes. After an early exit in Week 14 (2/27), Jefferson caught seven of his 10 targets for 84 yards in his matchup on the road vs. the Bengals. Minnesota had him on the field for 96% of their snaps. Last season, he struggled at home (3/14) vs. the Lions while posting an impact outcome (11/223) in Detroit.
The Lions slipped to 24th in wide receiver defense (175/2,234/16 on 277 targets). Three teams (GB – 15/210/1, LAC – 21/257/4, and GB – 16/211/2) gained more than 200 yards from their wideouts. CB Jerry Jacobs (47/602/7 on 71 targets per PFF) would have been an excellent matchup for Jefferson, but he left last week’s game with a hamstring issue. If Jacobs can’t play, CB Khalil Dorsey will make his second start in 2023.
Jefferson should have a phenomenal edge in his WR/CB matchup in this game. His ceiling should be explosive if the Vikings attempt more than 40 passes. I have him rated well (7/105/1) for Week 16. But I can’t project him much higher without giving Nick Mullens more touchdowns. A 4X game at DraftKings is well within reach.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,600)
After two down games (2/49/1 and 3/21) in catches and receiving yards, St. Brown regained his form last week vs. the Broncos (7/112/1). He has fewer than 10 targets in three consecutive starts after averaging 12.3 chances over six games from Week 6 to Week 12. St. Brown gained more than 100 yards receiving in seven of his 14 matchups, with his best two showings (12/124/1 and 8/156/1) coming on the road. In 2022, he failed to make an impact in his two games (6/73 and 6/74) vs. the Vikings.
Minnesota ranks 25th defending wide receivers (197/2,317/12 on 295 targets) despite only one team (LAR – 32/415/2) dominating with their wideouts. Some of their success is due to a favorable schedule against quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Tyson Bagent, Taylor Heinicke, Derek Carr/Jameis Winston, and Aidan O’Connell). CB Josh Metellus (67/621/3 on 76 targets per PFF) allows a high catch rate (88.2) while holding wide receivers to short yards per catch (9.3).
St. Brown is a volume receiver who works the short areas of the field. This matchup points to an active game, but he must score to fill his salary bucket. Over the last couple of times (CHI and @CHI) that I’ve needed the Lions to play well offensively, they left a massive void in my DFS lineup.
Third Tier Options
D.J. Moore, CHI (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,200)
After 14 games, Moore is on pace to set career highs in catches (97), receiving yards (1,364 yards), and touchdowns (9). Surprisingly, his play in Chicago (34/408/3 over six games) has been much lower than on the road (46/736/5 over eight games). His only playable game at home came in Week 4 (8/131/1). Last year, he had six catches for 50 yards vs. the Cardinals while playing for the Panthers.
Arizona sits 20th in wide receiver defense (179/2,290/13 on 250 targets). Their defense failed to sack the quarterback over the last three matchups, leading to nine passing touchdowns allowed. The Bengals (31/302/3) and Texans (23/295/1) had the most success. CB Marco Wilson (51/732/5 on 65 targets per PFF) is their weak link in coverage, but he lost his starting job after Week 11. If Garrett Williams (knee) can play this week, the Cardinals will be forced to play a weaker option at cornerback.
Over his 10 games playing with Justin Fields, Moore has 60 catches for 912 yards and eight touchdowns, with two impact games (9/131/1 and 8/230/3). His salary remains well within the range of his ceiling while offering a reasonable floor. He is a live option this week in a Bears’ passing stack.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,100)
With Tyreek Hill out last week, Waddle posted his best game (8/142/1) of the season. The Dolphins gave him a floor of eight targets over the past five games (8, 8, 8, 8, and 9). He gained more than 100 yards in two other contests (7/121/1 and 8/114). All four of his touchdowns have come at home over six games.
Dallas has the sixth-best defense against wide receivers (145/1,792/10 on 253 targets). Last week, the Bills attempted only 15 passes, leading to only four catches for 48 yards on seven targets for their wideouts. Their coverage vs. wide receivers showed more risk over their previous three matchups (WAS – 20/229, SEA – 19/252/3, and DAL – 15/195). CB DaRon Bland (41/535/3 on 76 targets per PFF) and CB Stephon Gilmore (40/520/4 on 74 targets) continue to play well in coverage. Miami will look to take advantage of the Cowboys’ slot coverage.
Waddle looks overpriced based on his overall stats in 2023, but he does come off a one-game winning streak while being a better player at home in scoring. The key to his playable value is the healthy/role of Tyreek Hill in this matchup.
Fourth Tier Option
Garrett Wilson, NYJ (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,000)
Over his last six full games with Zack Wilson starting at quarterback, Wilson had five high-floor games (8/90, 7/106, 7/80, 9/93, and 9/111) in catches and yards. Two of his three touchdowns came at home vs. division opponents. He gains only 9.7 yards per catch in New York compared to 14.7 on the road.
The Commanders have the second-worst wide receiver defense (182/2,785/22 on 274 targets). Eight teams (DEN – 13/273/3, PHI – 17/264/2, CHI – 8/230/3, PHI – 17/242/4, SEA – 21/256/1, DAL – 13/245/3, MIA – 12/225/2, and LAR – 15/205/2) passed for more than 200 yards. Wideouts gain 15.1 yards per catch. Washington allows 8.0 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 32 touchdowns. CB Benjamin St-Juste (64/827/4 on 94 targets) gives up a high catch rate (68.1), with receivers gaining 12.9 yards per catch.
Wilson needs to score 23+ fantasy points for his salary to reach a playable number. His matchup points to his best showing of the year, but New York still has questionable quarterback play.
Drake London, ATL (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,200)
This year, the home and away splits have a wide margin for the Falcons. London posted his best game (10/172) in Atlanta in Week 15. Unfortunately, he delivered two short outcomes before (1/8) and after (2/24) that stellar showing. London has 36 catches for 533 yards and one touchdown at home over six games, compared to 22 catches for 236 yards and one score in seven games on the road.
The Colts have the ninth-best defense (157/2,043/12 on 249 targets), helped by their risk allowing rushing touchdowns (21) and quarterbacks attempting only 32.5 passes per game. Six different opponents (7/79/1, 9/109, 8/43/1, 8/104, 7/115/1, and 7/124) have fewer than 10 receptions by their wideouts. The Texans (21/309/2) and Saints (12/267/1) have the most success with their wide receivers. Indy’s top cornerback (Kenny Moore – 58/523/3 on 74 targets per PFF) works out of the slot on 75% of his snaps, and he has a size disadvantage vs. London.
The switch back to Taylor Heinicke doesn’t excite me, but London has been viable in three games (18.70, 24.50, and 32.20 fantasy points) in his six home games based on DraftKings scoring. He is the clear top-receiving option for the Falcons while looking to end his nine-game streak without a touchdown.
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