Week 15 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
Deebo Samuel (34.00) led last week in fantasy points after taking home the runner-up prize the previous week (35.80). Drake London (29.20) posted his best game of the season to finish second, followed by D.J. Moore (26.80) and Cooper Kupp (25.50). Only four other wideouts scored 20.00 fantasy points or more. Eight of the top 10 wide receivers for the week ranked outside the top 20 in scoring in PPR formats coming into Week 14. Here are the best five players by scoring average after 14 weeks:
- Tyreek Hill (24.93)
- CeeDee Lamb (21.90)
- Keenan Allen (21.57)
- A.J. Brown (19.75)
- Ja’Marr Chase (18.49)
Also, before we get into the Week 14 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report and RB Report
Elite Option
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,200)
Over his last five games at home, Lamb had 45 catches for 605 yards and seven touchdowns on 64 targets, highlighted by his play in Week 8 (12/170/2), Week 10 (11/165/2), and Week 13 (12/146/1). He has a touchdown in five straight games (six totals). He is on pace to catch 126 passes for 1,748 yards and 12 touchdowns on 171 targets.
Buffalo sits 13th vs. wideouts (156/1,741/12 on 224 targets), with only two teams (JAC – 20/223/1 and CIN – 16/216) gaining more than 200 yards. CB Taron Johnson (42/364/3 on 53 targets per PFF) handles most of the Bills’ coverage out of the slots, where Lamb lines up on about 60% of his snaps.
The Cowboys’ top wide receiver has been tremendous over his last eight games. Lamb’s matchup isn’t ideal. But he should have an edge over all of the Bills’ cornerbacks. His salary is now top-shelf, requiring almost 37.00 fantasy points to be in the DFS mix in Week 15. Finally, this matchup has a chance of rain with temperatures in the high 40s.
Second-Tier Options
Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,200)
Kupp played better in Week 13 (6/39/1), followed by an elite outcome the following game (8/115/1) vs. the Ravens. From Week 7 to Week 12, he only had 12 catches for 127 yards on 30 targets over five games. In his best four starts, Kupp has 29 catches for 422 yards and three touchdowns on 39 targets (24.55 FPPG in DraftKings scoring). The Rams had him on the field for 98% and 97% of their plays over the past two weeks.
Washington has the second-worst defense (167/2,580/20) vs. wide receivers (42.41 FPPG), with seven teams (59.40, 55.40, 49.00, 65.20, 52.60, 57.50, and 46.50) scoring more than 40.00 fantasy points. Wideouts gain 15.49 yards per catch. On their bad days, they allowed more than 200 yards to wide receivers in seven matchups (DEN – 13/274/3, PHI – 17/264/2, CHI – 8/230/3, PHI – 17/242/4, SEA – 21/256/1, DAL – 13/245/3, and MIA – 12/225/2).
Kupp looks poised to have an impact game in this excellent matchup. When at his best, he has an elite opportunity with scoring upside. CB Benjamin St. Juste (58/762/4 on 84 targets) gives up touchdowns and big plays, giving Matthew Stafford a player to pick on in coverage. Kupp should score with more than 100 yards receiving.
Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,400/FD – $8,500)
Diggs has been a losing investment in three (3/34, 4/27, and 4/24) of his previous four starts. His last game with 100 yards receiving came in Week 6 (10/100). He played well over his first five home games (40/477/4 on 53 targets). In 2022, Diggs also lost momentum over his final nine contests (3/37, 5/60, 2/26, 7/104/1, 7/114, and 4/35), with the latter three coming in the postseason.
Dallas ranks seventh in wide receiver defense (141/1,744/10 on 246 targets. The most significant struggles came over the past three matchups (WAS – 20/229, SEA – 19/252/3, and PHI – 15/195). Over their first 10 contests, no team gained more than 155 yards from their wideouts. Opponents average 30.3 passes, with only 16 passing scores.
With A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Davante Adams off the main slate, along with Keenan Allen out and Tyreek Hill battling an ankle issue, the top-end options at wide receiver are limited in Week 15. Diggs won’t be a higher percentage own this week. He has plenty of experience facing CB Stephon Gilmore (38/495/4 on 71 targets per PFF), while CB DaRon Bland (40/518/3 on 74 targets) has eight interceptions this year. Diggs is only a gamble based on his recent play.
Third Tier Option
Brandon Aiyuk, SF (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,800)
In his five home starts, Aiyuk gained over 100 yards in four games (6/148, 5/109, 5/156/1, and 6/126) while gaining 23.0 yards per catch. His best scoring (five touchdowns) has come on the road, with most of the damage done in Week 1 (8/129/2). The lack of passing attempts by the 49ers (27.9 per game) lowers his ceiling (only one game with double-digit targets – 10). Aiyuk saw his scoring streak end at four games. In Week 4, he scored 20.80 fantasy points vs. the Cardinals.
Arizona comes into this week as the 19th defense vs. wide receivers (170/2,180/11 on 235 targets). Four offenses (NYG – 14/216/1, CIN – 31/302/3, LAR – 12/204/1, and HOU – 23/295/1) gained more than 200 yards from their wideouts. CB Marco Wilson (51/732/5 on 65 targets per PFF) is the weak link in coverage.
The 49ers’ passing game gained 20 yards or more on 38 of their last 121 completions (31.4%), with 11 plays reaching the 40-yard mark. Aiyuk gains 18.8 yards per catch, giving him a chance to hit a long bomb on any given Sunday. His salary seems higher based on his win rate (2-for-12 ~ Week 1 – 32.90 and Week 11 – 26.60). There’s a lot to like in his game except his overall opportunity (6.75 targets). I’ll call him a maybe as this matchup points to Christian McCaffrey having success.
Michael Pittman, IND (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,900)
Another week in the NFL and another eight catches by Pittman. His play has been impressive over the past six weeks (8/40/1, 8/64/, 8/84, 10/107, 11/105/1, and 8/95). The Colts looked his way 52 times over his past four starts. Three of his four scores have come at home, but his stats are better on the road (61/590/1 on 84 targets over seven games). His only game in fantasy points (27.50) supporting his salary came in Week 13. Pittman is on pace to catch 124 passes for 1,287 yards and five touchdowns.
The Steelers climbed to 15th against wideouts (150/2,153/9 on 255 targets). Over the last four weeks, their defense played well in coverage vs. wide receivers (CLE – 11/96, CIN – 9/145, ARI – 3/46, and NE – 7/107), helped by not allowing a score. Earlier in the season, four teams (LV – 23/290/2, HOU – 12/232/2, LAR – 11/214/1, and TEN – 12/203) gained more than 200 yards from their wide receivers. Pittsburgh gave up more than two touchdowns in only three games this season. The Steelers’ top two cornerbacks (Levi Wallace – 34/484/6 on 59 targets and Patrick Peterson – 31/388/4 on 54 targets) have allowed 10 touchdowns.
At this point of the season, Pittman feels like a lock to post an 8/70 type game. With 30 more yards and a touchdown, he would be in position to support his current salary. Also, he is playing well and a score seems a reasonable outcome in this matchup.
Low-Value Option
Jayden Reed, GB (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,100)
Over the past five games, Reed scored four times, two via a catch and two by land. The Packers gave him nine rushing chances over the last three weeks (9/77/2), and most of his receiving work has come close to the line of scrimmage (8.3 yards per catch) since Week 10. Reed averaged 15.94 fantasy points over his previous five starts.
Tampa Bay fell to 27th in wide receiver defense (178/2,510/11 on 272 targets. The Lions (21/255/2), Bills (24/249/1), and Texans (16/335/4) had the most success against the Bucs. Over the last five games, only one wideout caught a touchdown. CB Christian Izien (38/406/3 on 47 targets per PFF) allows a high catch rate (80.9) but short yards per reception (10.7).
Reed tends to work as the Packers’ WR3 as far as snaps. With Christian Watson out, his opportunity has improved, and he appears to be their top-scoring threat at wide receiver. His salary is favorable, and Jordan Love played well in his last two home games (322/2 and 267/3).
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