Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report
The Browns/Jaguars game delivered the top two tight ends for Week 14. Evan Engram (11/95/02 had the best game of his career, coming on the heels of scoring his first touchdown (9/82/1) the previous week. David Njoku (6/91/2) also scored twice. The Rams decided not to cover Isaiah Likely on his 54-yard scamper for a touchdown, setting up a Mark Andrews-type day (5/83/1). Hunter Henry (19.00) and George Kittle (16.60) rounded out the top five in fantasy points. Here are the top five tight ends by scoring average after 14 weeks:
- Travis Kelce (15.28)
- T.J. Hockenson (15.22)
- Sam LaPorta (13.58)
- Evan Engram (13.16)
- George Kittle (13.10)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 14 DFS: QB Report, RB Report, and WR Report.
Elite Option
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,500)
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been able to get Kelce rolling over the six weeks. Over this span, he caught 32 of his 44 targets for 371 yards and one touchdown, leading to only steady fantasy production in five games (11.80, 16.40, 15.10, 12.10, and 14.30). His recent stats don’t command his current salary. Kelce has one impact game (12/179/1) and a pair of 20.00-point outcomes (22.70 and 21.40), all coming between Week 5 and Week 7. Over his past five matchups, he averaged seven targets (8.9 in 2022 and 8.4 in 2021).
New England climbed to sixth in tight end defense (56/500/1 on 82 targets). Foster Moreau is the only tight end to score vs. the defense. The Raiders (7/94) and Bills (9/85) had the most success in fantasy points. Overall, the Patriots’ opposing TEs have 696 catches for 6,848 yards and 41 touchdowns on 1,007 targets, coming to 10.63 fantasy points per game (the best tight end schedule in the league).
Kelce should reach 100 catches with more than 1,000 yards receiving again this year, giving fantasy teams an edge at the tight end position. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been as wide as in 2022 (5.93 fantasy points per game over the second-ranked tight end). His matchup looks below par, and his salary commands 30+ fantasy points to be an edge. The Chiefs need to find their offensive identity after losing three games (53 combined points) over the past four weeks. Finally, I can’t dismiss him due to Kelce being the top target in Kansas City’s offense with scoring upside.
Mid-Tier Options
George Kittle, SF ($5,800/FD – $6,800)
A late 44-yard touchdown saved Kittle’s day in Week 14. Before that play, he only had two catches for 32 yards. Over his previous three games, the 49ers only looked his way 16 times, leading to 10 catches for 163 yards and one score. Kittle has three catches or fewer in eight of his 13 starts. Despite his lack of opportunity in most weeks, he does have four winning days (3/67/3, 9/149, 3/116/1, and 8/89/1) on his 2023 resume. In Week 4, the Cardinals held him to one catch for nine yards on one target. His lack of success in that matchup was more due to San Francisco not needing him to win.
Arizona has the seventh-best defense against tight ends (48/479/5 on 72 targets), with only the Rams scoring more than 20.00 fantasy points (6/35/2). However, all five of their touchdowns allowed came over their last six contests. Their opponent’s tight ends have the second-lowest number of catches (727) and targets (1,044) combined for the year.
Kittle has star power and scoring upside if the 49ers decide to call his number at a higher rate. His matchup is much better than the Cardinals’ ranking vs. tight ends due to facing a favorable schedule. Ideally, more passing attempts by San Francisco would create more targets for all their receiving options.
Evan Engram, JAC (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,100)
The injury to Christian Kirk has turned out to be a big win for Engram over the past two weeks (9/82/1 and 11/95/2 on 21 combined targets). He has already set a career-high in catches (84). He has a floor of four catches in all of his starts while catching at least seven balls in six of his 13 games. Before the last two weeks, Engram didn’t have a touchdown. Last year, the Ravens held him to one catch for four yards on one target.
Baltimore slid to ninth vs. tight ends (61/534/3 on 88 targets). Their worst showing came against the Cardinals (10/95/1) while allowing a touchdown in their last two games (LAC – 4/43/1 and LAR – 4/50/1). The Ravens played four teams (CIN – 64/473/4, PIT – 51/443/2, TEN – 48/461/1, and LAR – 42/454/3) with weakness at tight end.
Finally, Engram comes into this game with a two-game winning streak. However, he doesn’t have the best matchup in Week 15. A 6/60 game is well within reach, putting him a score away from a reasonable outcome.
Trey McBride, ARI (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,600)
Since taking over the starting tight end job for the Cardinals, McBride has 41 catches for 440 yards and two touchdowns on 53 targets. His floor has been high at home (10/95/1, 8/131, and 7/60) over this span, with his other winning day coming in Week 13 (8/89/1). McBride has nine targets in four of his six starts.
San Fransico sits fifth defending tight ends (59/480/2 on 92 targets). The Vikings had the best outcome (13/92 on 14 targets), while Seattle had success in Week 14 (5/66/1). Eight opponents gained fewer than 30 yards from their tight ends. The 49ers played five teams that averaged fewer than 5.6 targets by their tight ends.
Additionally, McBride is the top receiving option for Arizona, and the Cardinals should chase on the scoreboard. San Fran will give up short catches, allowing Kyler Murray to crawl down the field on drives. Viable based on his success matched with his salary.
Low-Value Options
Isaiah Likely, BAL (DK – $3,700/FD – $5,500)
In his second game with Mark Andrews out, Likely caught five of his seven targets for 83 yards and one score while being in the field for 79% of the Ravens’ plays. Sixty-four percent of his fantasy points (19.30) came on his 54-yard touchdown. On the year, Baltimore’s tight ends have 64 catches for 769 yards and seven touchdowns on 88 targets. They only had one game (123/122) with more than six catches.
Jacksonville fell to 28th in tight end defense (63/763/5 on 97 targets) with failure in four games (KC – 7/64/1, ATL – 8/116, SF – 3/116/1, and CLE – 7/94/2). Tight ends gain 12.1 yards per catch. The Jaguars allowed eight touchdowns and three field goals over their last 29 possessions, leading to 59 points.
The Ravens feature their tight ends in the passing game and look for them at the goal line. Likely should be active in this game, suggesting he’ll be popular again in the DFS market in Week 15. In a way, he has Mark Andrews’s upside at 62% of the investment.
Jake Ferguson, DAL (DK – $3,000/FD – $5,900)
Over his last seven games, Ferguson scored at least 4X of his current salary in five games (14.70, 22.10, 12.60, 19.70, and 12.20 fantasy points). The Cowboys gave him eight targets in back-to-back games, with a peak of 10 looks in Week 9.
Buffalo struggled in two games (NE – 6/83/1 and CIN – 10/101/2) vs. tight ends while ranking ninth (60/580/3 on 86 targets) in TE defense. Nine opponents gained fewer than 45 yards from their tight ends, and one team had more than six catches. For the year, the Bills have the best schedule for touchdowns by tight ends (40 scored by their combined opponents in all their games).
Ferguson is a developing tight end with a bottom-tier salary. His success of late paints him as a viable play this week. But his play on the road (21/225/1 on 33 targets) has been quiet in five games (2/11, 5/48, 3/28, 1/15, and 1/35). Ultimately, he needs Dallas to keep up their recent scoring pace away from home.
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