Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 15

Easton Stick vs. Aidan O’Connell. This is, uh…., not what we signed up for. After 14 up-and-down Thursday contests, this week’s offering is the NFL version of going through the motions. It is what it is. Regardless, the FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 15 breaks down this week’s contest from a fantasy and sports betting perspective.

After losing Justin Herbert for the rest of the season, the Chargers are now riding out the clock. A new regime now seems inevitable for Los Angeles. Additionally, Easton Stick will make his first NFL start on streaming TV against an equally moribund Raiders franchise.

As for Vegas, they hit rock bottom last week, losing their third consecutive game by a paltry 3-0 score. Both teams sit at 5-8 in the mediocre AFC West.

However, on the bright side, there’s no way these two teams will score fewer points than last week. Right?

The Chargers opened as 3-point favorites. However, when news of Herbert’s season-ending injury hit, the line shifted oppositely. Las Vegas now stands as a field-goal favorite. Conversely, the total plummeted 8.5 points from its opening of 42.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Los Angeles Chargers	17	10	26	14	16
Las Vegas Raiders	29	22	32	26	28

Both of these teams have faced more than their fair share of adversity.

Brandon Staley faces a lot of scrutiny as the Chargers have been one of the most under-achieving teams in the AFC. The addition of offensive coordinator Keelen Moore from Dallas has not panned out as expected. The Chargers have been an average offense that will surely plummet without Herbert under center.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have a brief resurgence under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. However, after three consecutive defeats with three total touchdowns scored, that success is a distant memory.

Las Vegas has rushed for an NFL-worst 1,048 yards. A struggling offensive line plays a big part in the struggles. But making matters worse, the Raiders will be without star RB Josh Jacobs, who will miss this game with a quad injury.

Las Vegas Offense

Further hampering the offense is QB Aidan O’Connell. The fourth-round rookie has thrown just four touchdowns in seven games, with seven interceptions. Facing a Los Angeles defense that has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks seems like a good matchup for O’Connell. But, without Jacobs, the Chargers will be able to go all-out to pressure the rookie signal caller.

Ameer Abdullah usually acts as the Raiders’ third-down back. He may see a few more opportunities but can’t be trusted in lineups. Abdullah’s only appeal is as a DFS pivot.

Zamir White hasn’t played more than 10 snaps in any game since Week 10. However, White (6-0, 215) is bigger and will get an opportunity to split touches with Abdullah. I expect White to log more carries, which gives him more appeal in daily lineups.

The Chargers also allow 38.3 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Davante Adams caught 8-of-13 targets for 75 yards against this same secondary back in Week 4. That volume sounds about right in this rematch. However, Adams has only scored one touchdown since Week 3.

Jakobi Meyers has produced five touchdowns in the same span. But, Meyers will see far less volume. He has only topped 50 receiving yards once since Week 6 but sees plenty of snaps. The favorable matchup dictates that Meyers remains a solid WR3/flex option.

Hunter Renfrow has been heating up a bit lately, making him a DFS dart throw to consider.

Rookie tight end Michael Mayer‘s numbers have dipped for three consecutive games. Also, the Chargers’ defense has tightened up against tight ends. That makes Mayer an unappealing TE2 that would be entirely touchdown-dependent. Mayer has scored only one TD all season.

Los Angeles Offense

That disappointing Chargers’ offense will now be in the hands of Easton Stick for the rest of the season. A 2019 fifth-round pick out of North Dakota State, Stick posted a 78.3 QB Rating in his first significant NFL action last Sunday.

While the Raiders’ offense has stagnated, Antonio Pierce has done a great job with the defense. Vegas ranks 10th against the pass and has surrendered the ninth-fewest points in the league. This is a below-average matchup for a quarterback who projects to be one of the lowest-scoring options on the Week 15 slate. And now, he won’t have his top wideout.

The Raiders only rank 25th against the run, so it is fair to assess that Moore will call plenty of runs. However, that may not be a great game script for Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry. The aging veteran hasn’t topped 100 rushing yards since Week 1. 12-15 carries feels right, but Ekeler’s value via the receiving game must be downgraded due to the new quarterback.

Following that game script would result in a few more touches for Joshua Kelley. Brandon Staley indicated that Kelley would start seeing more usage last week, only to give him three opportunities on Sunday. Subsequently, it is hard to trust Kelley even if it appears to be a favorable situation.

With Allen ruled OUT of this game, those targets will be divided elsewhere. Last week, Quentin Johnston caught both of his targets from Stick for 79 yards. Johnston was in on 88% of LA’s snaps, which is a very good rate. However, only receiving two targets is a concern. Therefore, Johnston remains a boom-or-bust WR4.

Also, Josh Palmer is set to return after a stint on IR. It remains to be seen what kind of role Palmer will have, especially with a new quarterback. However, the path is open for him to resume the role he had from Weeks 1-8.

Alex Erickson saw a 66% snap rate last week but failed to corral either of his two targets from Stick after earning four targets in the first half. Keep that in mind when deciding to search for value picks in your Showdown slates.

TE Gerald Everett played 68% of the Chargers’ snaps against Denver and had an excellent 19.5% target share. Four of those looks came via Stick.

Prediction & Best Bet

The only thing worse than this game has been my picks. Last week I went with the under, so naturally the over hit in the first half. Therefore, I recommend fading whatever I choose.

Only four clubs have scored fewer points than the Raiders. And the Chargers have dipped to 16th in scoring. Points should be at a premium, especially on short rest. These teams combined to score three points last week.

Combined, these teams have a 6-20 recorded versus the over.

The under has hit in 10 of the Chargers’ last 11 and in seven of the last eight home games for Las Vegas.

Against the spread, things haven’t been quite as blatant. The Raiders are 6-6-1 ATS, while Los Angeles is 5-8. However, the Chargers have only covered once in their last five games, while Vegas is 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six.

Best Bet: Raiders -3

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