Week 14 DFS: Running Back Report
Joe Mixon (29.70) finished as the top-scoring running back in Week 13, lifting him to sixth in fantasy points (178.10) for the season. Alvin Kamara (28.90) won the runner-up prize, followed by De’Von Achane (25.30) and Derek Henry (25.00). Five other running backs scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average after 13 weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (24.76)
- Raheem Mostert (17.95)
- Travis Etienne (17.48)
- Alvin Kamara (15.68)
- Rachaad White (15.33)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 14 DFS QB Report.
Elite Tier Option
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,500)
McCaffrey is the most consistent running back in the NFL. He holds close to a seven-point weekly average edge in PPR formats. His floor has been 20.00 fantasy points in 10 of his 12 starts while riding a six-game streak. His best two showings came in Week 4 (48.70) and Week 12 (30.90) vs. division opponents (ARI and SEA). The 49ers give him 21.75 touches a game. And McCaffrey has a score in every contest except Week 10. Two weeks ago, he gained 139 yards with two touchdowns and five catches against the Seahawks.
Seattle slipped to 28th in running back defense after three disaster games (42.00, 45.50, and 35.80 fantasy points) over the past five weeks. Running backs have 15 touchdowns vs. the Seahawks. They struggled in one game defending running backs in the passing game (WAS – 12/164/2). Baltimore (41/298/3) ran over them on the ground in Week 9.
I have McCaffrey projected as a difference-maker in Week 14, giving him a chance at four times his salary at DraftKings. The 49ers are red hot offensively, starting with elite quarterback play. The challenge is finding a winning roster behind him in the DFS market.
Top-Tier Options
Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
After three dull games (11.00, 18.50, and 15.90) in fantasy points, while averaging 16 touches, game flow led to him gaining more than 100 yards (109) for the second consecutive start. His edge came from his fourth and fifth touchdowns of the year. Despite missing three weeks, he is the fourth-highest-scoring running back (188.10).
Carolina bumped to 30th defending running backs (27.26 FPPG) after holding backs to fewer than 25.00 fantasy points in PPR formats over the past six weeks. Over the first six weeks, four teams (44.70, 37.90, 33.90, and 49.40) scored more than 30.00 fantasy points against them. Running backs scored 20 touchdowns, with eight offenses reaching the end zone on the ground at least twice.
In Week 2, at home against the Panthers without Kamara, the Saints rushed for 134 yards on 33 carries with two scores and no catches. The rising salary for Kamara makes him a challenging ride, especially on the road. His matchup should offer at least one score, while Taysom Hill (who may miss this week’s game) remains a thorn in his ceiling.
Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,500)
There has been no excitement in Ekeler’s game over the past three weeks (34/114/0 – 3.4 yards per rush and nine catches for 47 yards) while playing the last two matchups (BAL and NE) against good defenses. Last week, the Chargers had him on the field for 57% of their plays. That gave Joshua Kelley (25 combined yards and two catches) a better opportunity to touch the ball. Ekeler scored more than 20.00 fantasy points from Week 8 to Week 10 (24.30, 21.00, and 21.50). In two starts vs. the Broncos in 2022, he gained 153 yards with 14 catches on 39 touches.
Denver has the worst defense in the league against running backs (29.36 FPPG), with 29.2% of the damage coming in Week 3 vs. the Dolphins (103.10 fantasy points). The Broncos allow 5.2 yards per rush, with backs scoring 12 touchdowns. Four offenses have run for at least 175 yards (MIA – 43/350/5, NYJ – 32/234/1, BUF – 26/192/2, and MIN – 36/175/1).
Ekeler has a sliding salary, especially at FanDuel, giving him a better chance of filling his salary bucket. Los Angeles suggested Joshua Kelley will be more active in this game. But a good start should create a better opportunity for Ekeler. The Chargers need to get him more targets to help his floor. He’s not playing well with a three-game losing streak, but he does have the resume to play at a much higher level.
Mid-Tier Options
Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,100)
Atlanta had Bijan Robinson on the field for 75% of their snaps vs. the Jets, giving him 69 touches over the previous three contests with 308 combined yards, seven catches, and three scores. In his last home start (16/91/1 with three catches for 32 yards and one score), he posted his best fantasy game (27.30). Robinson is on pace to gain 1,448 yards with nine touchdowns and 50 catches.
Tampa Bay has the eighth-best defense (18.34 FPPG) vs. running backs while showing more risk over their last three matchups (23.70, 30.10, and 26.90 fantasy points). After not allowing a rushing touchdown to a back over the first 10 weeks, the Colts and Panthers scored four times over the past two games. The Bucs’ defense gave up 117 points over their last four road matchups.
The Falcons’ offense has been out of sync passing the ball over their last three games (94/1, 168/1, and 121/1) after benching Desmond Ridder. Robinson needs better quarterback play to create more chances and scoring opportunities. Moving in a higher direction, and Atlanta scored more at home (138 points) than on the road this year (88 points).
Zack Moss, IND (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,800)
After returning to a starting role due to an injury to Jonathan Taylor, Moss (19/51) struggled to find running room vs. the Titans. Indianapolis had him on the field for 94% of their snaps while receiving 21 touches. He played well from Week 2 to Week 5 (141/672/5 – 4.8 yards per rush with 18 catches for 138 yards and one score), highlighted by three games (20.70, 22.50, and 33.50 fantasy points). Moss averaged 23.6 touches in his five contests as the Colts’ lead runner.
Cincinnati sits 18th in running back fantasy defense (21.58 FPPG). One team posted more than 30.00 fantasy points. They allow 4.8 yards per rush, with backs scoring 11 times. A running back reached pay dirt in 10 of their 12 matchups. Six offenses rushed for at least 150 yards (CLE – 40/206/1, BAL – 37/178/1, TEN – 33/173/1, HOU – 34/188/2, BAL – 31/157/2, and PIT – 33/153/1).
Moss will be active in this game with a reasonable chance of scoring. His salary is well within his opportunity, making him an attractive running back option again in Week 14. With 100 yards rushing and a score, Moss should be in the range of a winning outcome in the daily games.
Low-Value Option
Keaton Mitchell, BAL (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,900)
In Week 12, Baltimore gave Mitchell the most running back snaps (46%) while working in Gus Edwards (27%) and Justice Hill (28%). He finished nine rushes for 64 yards with two catches for 25 yards. Over the past four games, Mitchell gained 330 yards with two touchdowns and five catches despite only touching the ball 34 times.
The Rams rank seventh in running back defense (18.28 FPPG). Only two teams (PIT – 25/77/2 with four catches for 14 yards and GB – 33/156/1 with five catches for 29 yards) scored more than 25.00 fantasy points. Los Angeles shined against the run over the last three weeks (21/68, 15/73/1, and 23/87), suggesting this is a below-par matchup.
Mitchell is far from a lock, but his role has increased with each game played. His explosiveness gives him a chance at an impact game if he gets the hot hand. Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards are the favorites to score at the goal line. That requires Mitchell to hit on a long touchdown to pay off.
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