Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14

Remember when Thursday was ‘Must See TV’? That no longer applies. After being blessed with a terrific game last week that featured no punts, football fans will be hard-pressed to be excited about the Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14.

After watching a game with no punts, Week 14 features two of the five lowest-scoring teams in football. New England is coming off a 6-0 shutout. The Patriots have scored one touchdown total in their last three games. Additionally, being shutout by the Chargers’ 28th-ranked defense does not bode well for a trip to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers defense that has surrendered the sixth-fewest points.

Meanwhile, only four other teams have mustered fewer points on offense than Pittsburgh. Additionally, the Steelers are now trotting out their No. 2 quarterback on short rest.

The Steelers opened as slight favorites and a futile total of 35 points plummeted down to a meager 30.5.

Hardly a must-see event- this AFC duel is strictly for diehards and fantasy fanatics.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
New England Patriots	28	23	21	28	32
Pittsburgh Steelers	26	28	14	25	28

These two teams put the offense in ‘offensive’.

New England has struggled in all facets of assembling a credible offense. They have scored the fewest points in football. Also, New England has a pathetic 10-to-14 TD-to-INT ratio. Finally, they rank 31st in average starting position, percentage of drives resulting in points, and dead-last in field goal percentage.

Things have been marginally better in Pittsburgh, especially since dismissing Matt Canada. The Steelers are a respectable 14th with 1,384 rushing yards and lead the NFL with only 10 turnovers. Mike Tomlin has done another fantastic job guiding a very marginal offensive unit to a 7-5 record.

Finally, acclimate yourself with Pressley Harvin III and Bryce Baringer, the team’s punters.

New England Offense

Despite getting shutout last week, Bill Belichick will go with Bailey Zappe as his starting quarterback. Zappe completed just 52% of his throws last week for a pedestrian 141 yards against a Chargers defense that had surrendered the second-most passing yards.

Quarterbacks are earning a 78 QB Rating against Pittsburgh, the seventh-lowest in the NFL. Meanwhile, Zappe and Mac Jones have compiled a 71 QB Rating, which ranks 30th. The lack of any real downfield threat will hamper New England’s skill position players.

Rhamondre Stevenson won’t play, so it’s the Ezekiel Elliott show. Elliott accumulated a season-high 21 touches and 92 scrimmage yards last week. Over 35% of Zappe’s targets went to the running backs last week, so expect another inefficient day with heavy usage for Elliott. View him as a volume-based RB2.

No other running back took a snap last week. However, Ty Montgomery is likely to see an increased role.

The Steelers’ defense is moving in the right direction. Pittsburgh has not allowed a touchdown reception to a wide receiver in their last three games.

With Demario Douglas (concussion) expected to be out, DeVante Parker will be the club’s No. 1 wideout. Parker posted a whopping 37.5% target share last week in that role. His touchdown upside is muted, but Parker should see enough targets to warrant flex considerations. UPDATE: Parker is INACTIVE. Pivot to Smith-Schuster.

Juju Smith-Schuster led New England with 59 (92%) snaps last week. However, Smith-Schuster caught only one of his lowly three targets. The playing time warrants attention, but the floor is exceptionally low.

Tyquan Thornton has quietly been playing more. He was in on 80% of New England’s snaps last week and was targeted on one of Zappe’s deep balls. Unfortunately, that was his only look in the game. Similar to Juju Smith-Schuster, Thornton is a risky start that has some appeal in a Showdown slate.

Hunter Henry caught two of his four targets last week. He was the only New England tight end to draw a look and played 47 snaps. Mike Gesicki was only on the field for six plays. Pharaoh Brown is an in-line blocker.

Pittsburgh Offense

Mitchell Trubisky will fill in for Kenny Pickett. Considering Pickett’s struggles, this may be an upgrade for Pittsburgh’s offense. Trubisky will take more risks than Pickett but has a far superior TD Rate (4.1% to 1.9%). Also, he turns the ball over far more often but takes fewer sacks.

Trubisky’s 4.6 adjusted yards per attempt figure is inviting for the running backs. Pittsburgh’s dynamic duo have racked up 17 of Trubisky’s 49 pass attempts this season.

10 of those passes went to Jaylen Warren. Last week’s 6.5 PPR points represented Warren’s lowest output of the season. And that came against an Arizona run defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs. The Patriots are far more competent, but Warren will be able to make plays as a runner and receiver, giving him solid RB2 value.

Ditto for Najee Harris. Harris has eclipsed double-digit fantasy points in five of his past seven outings. New England has allowed eight rushing scores to running backs this season, and Harris is far more likely to punch in any short-yardage scores. Both Steelers’ backs are solid fantasy options.

George Pickens has only caught two of the eight targets he’s received from Trubisky. However, both were for 20-plus yard gains and one resulted in a touchdown grab. New England has struggled against speedy downfield threats all season. With Trubisky, the risk is higher, but Pickens has enough upside to warrant some captain shares in showdown lineups.

Diontae Johnson should be busier with Trubisky under center. Johnson has been the target on 16.3% of Trubisky’s passes. Also, he caught a short-yardage touchdown last week, which was encouraging. New England has ceded the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so expect Johnson to have his usual role.

Only the Titans have allowed fewer touchdowns to tight ends than New England’s one. In all, the Patriots only allow 8.6 fantasy points per game to the positions- fifth-lowest. Pat Freiermuth earned a respectable 18.5% target share last week but was only on the field 59% of the time. Freiermuth is a locked-in fantasy TE1 but expectations should be lowered for Week 14.

Calvin Austin and Connor Heyward have been surprisingly effective when Trubisky has played. Keep their names in mind when looking for salary relief in daily lineups.

Prediction & Best Bet

New England has won seven of their last eight against the Steelers. But those were different times. This new era in New England appears bleak. The Patriots are a disastrous 2-10 both straight up and against the spread. They have lost an uncharacteristic five consecutive games.

The Patriots’ biggest struggles have been on offense. The under has hit in 10 of the team’s 12 games, including 4-of-5 as visitors. In their last three games, New England has mustered a total of 19 points. In five road games, the Patriots have accumulated just three touchdown passes.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh opened as a small favorite. However, the line has now shifted to the Steelers being favored by 5.5. The Steelers themselves are no offensive juggernaut. The under has hit in nine of their last 10. Pittsburgh is next to last with a mere eight touchdown passes.

Finally, the weather looks fine. The forecast calls for 39 degrees with partly cloudy conditions and no rain.

Despite the total dropping, it’s hard to see the Patriots having much success against a solid defense that can get after Zappe. This looks like a low-scoring slugfest. Something like Pittsburgh 17-10 sounds right.

Best Bet: UNDER 30.5

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