Week 13 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
Last week, no wide receiver scored more than 25.50 fantasy points in PPR formats. Tyreek Hill (9/104/1) won the Gold Medal, followed by Mike Evans (6/70/2) and Rashee Rice (8/107/1). Eleven other wideouts scored between 20.00 and 24.00 fantasy points. Over the previous three weeks, Keenan Allen (30.57) was the top player. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average after 12 weeks of action:
- Tyreek Hill (25.57)
- Keenan Allen (23.34)
- CeeDee Lamb (21.18)
- A.J. Brown (20.00)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (19.24)
Also, before we get into the Week 13 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,600/FD – $10,000)
The Dolphins gave Hill double-digit targets in each of the last six matchups, leading to him having a floor of eight catches in five consecutive starts. He’s gained over 100 yards in seven of his 11 games while adding a score in nine different weeks (10 total TDs). Hill’s best showing in fantasy points came in Week 1 (44.50). And he has three other outcomes with at least 30.00 fantasy points at home.
Washington has the second-worst wide receiver defense (155/2,355/18 on 238 targets), with wideouts gaining 15.2 yards per catch. Six teams (DEN – 13/274/3, PHI – 17/264/2, CHI – 8/230/3, PHI – 17/242/4, SEA – 21/256/1, and DAL – 13/245/3) gained over 200 yards from their wide receivers. Their quarterbacks passed for more than 300 yards in each of these failures. D.J. Moore (8/230/2) and A.J. Brown (8/130/2 and 9/175/2) had the most success. CB Benjamin St. Juste (56/741/4 on 56 targets per PFF) has been a weak link in coverage, along with CB Emmanuel Forbes (27/490/3 on 42 targets).
The Dolphins do an excellent job getting Hill easy catches close to the line of scrimmage, with some coming out of the backfield. He has the speed and quickness to beat any defender one-on-one, pointing to an impact game vs. the Commanders. He comes into this week with a slight ankle issue that limited his playing time in practice. Over his final six starts, Hill needs 676 receiving yards to reach 2,000 yards.
A.J. Brown, PHI (DK – $8,800/FD – $8,400)
After a magical fantasy run over seven games (9/131, 9/175/2, 6/127, 7/131, 10/137/1, 8/130/2, and 7/66/1), the Eagles struggled to get Brown the ball in back-to-back matchups (1/8 and 5/37/1) vs. the Chiefs and Bills. His shortfall is directly tied to Jalen Hurts having regression in his passing production in three consecutive starts (207/2, 150/0, and 200/3). Despite coming into last week with a thigh issue, Philly had Brown on the field for 94% of their snaps. He is also listed as questionable for this week with the same injury. The 49ers held him to four catches for 28 yards on eight targets in the postseason in 2022.
The 49ers had a top defense. But they do have risk vs. wide receivers (22nd – 164/1,782/9 on 246 targets). The Rams (24/243), Vikings (17/241/2), and Bengals (21/235/3) gained over 200 yards from their wideouts. Despite their weakness in some games, their pass defense allows only 6.2 yards per pass attempt with 11 touchdowns allowed and 33 sacks. San Francisco tends to keep their cornerbacks on the same side of the field on most plays, giving Brown a higher chance to face CB Deommodore Lenior (50/599/0 on 69 targets per PFF) in coverage.
When comparing Brown to Tyreek Hill in Week 13, he appears to be a 3-to-1 underdog to payoff based on Washington allowing more passing TDs (28) than the 49ers (11). I can’t dismiss a winning day, as he has scoring and big-play ability. San Fran plays well against the run, suggesting more air yards for the Eagles and Brown in this matchup.
Mid-Tier Options
Tank Dell, HOU (DK – $ 7,400/FD – $8,200)
Last week, Dell played second fiddle to Nico Collins (7/104/1) in the Texans’ passing attack despite extending his scoring streak to four games (five touchdowns). He did have a long catch called by due to a penalty that would have placed him in the Goldilocks zone for his rising salary. His best three showings came in Week 3 (5/145/1), Week 9 (6/116/2), and Week 11 (8/149/1). Dell comes into this matchup with a calf issue but is expected to play.
Denver climbed to sixth in the league against wide receivers (116/1,500/9 on 178 targets) after holding wideouts to short games over the past four weeks (KC – 12/150, BUF – 6/114, MIN – 7/83, and CLE – 9/122). The latter two weeks were helped by facing weaker quarterbacks (Joshua Dobbs and Dorian Thompson-Robinson). The disaster game (70 points allowed) vs. Miami (13/271/2) is no longer in their rearview mirror. Dell should be able to avoid Pat Surtain (32/420/2 on 51 targets per PFF) on most plays by lining up more in the slot.
The Texans play their fourth game in five weeks at home vs. the Denver, while the Broncos make only their second road appearance over the last six games. C.J. Stroud has 16 touches in his six games in Houston, averaging 346 passing yards. Dell rates highly again this week, but his salary now requires almost 30.00 fantasy points.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF (DK – $7,200/FD – $8,000)
Timing the rhythm of the 49ers’ receiving options has been challenging in the DFS market in 2023. Each option has had multiple games of stardom. And San Fran used a tight rotation for players to move the ball. The downside for Aiyuk compared to some of the best receivers in the game is that the 49ers have a balanced offense, leading to them averaging only 28.1 passes. Their top wideout has four games (8/129/2, 6/148, 5/109, and 5/156/1) with more than 100 yards receiving but only 29 targets in those matchups. San Francisco gave him six targets or fewer in six of his last nine starts.
The Eagles rank last in the NFL defending wideouts (181/2,148/17 on 297 targets). They’ve allowed 200 yards or more to wide receivers in six games (MIN – 17/265/2, WAS – 22/230/1, MIA – 20/206/1, WAS – 24/288/3, DAL – 18/271/2, and BUF – 15/226/2). CB Darius Slay allowed a high catch rate (65.2), while CB James Bradberry has more risk in touchdowns allowed (7).
Aiyuk has an upside matchup in Week 13, especially if the 49ers chase on the scoreboard. His biggest risk would be a shorter passing window (Philly has 32 sacks). Brock Purdy had his worst showing (12-for-27 for 125 yards and one score) earlier in the year vs. the Browns when he was under duress on many plays throwing the ball. Aiyuk averages 19.6 yards per catch this season, with a three-game winning streak in touchdowns (3/55/1, 5/156/1, and 2/50/1). I could see a piece of their 49ers’ passing game landing in the winning ticket at DraftKings this week.
Low-Value Options
Terry McLaurin, WAS (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,700)
McLaurin is on pace to catch 85 passes for 983 yards and three touchdowns despite gaining more than 60 yards receiving in only five games (8/86, 6/81, 5/63/1, and 5/73). He doesn’t have a 40-yard catch this year (six in 2022 and 15 in his career) due to the short passing window created by the porous Washington offensive line. Over his first four years with the Commanders, McLaurin gained more than 100 yards receiving in 14 games (5/125/1, 4/100/2, 5/130/1, 7/125/1, 10/118, 7/115/1, 11/107/1, 6/123/2, 7/122/1, 5/103/1, 6/102, 6/113, 8/128, and 8/105/1).
Miami sits 23rd in wide receiver defense (159/1,693/12 on 229 targets). The Raiders (18/209/1), Broncos (18/257/1), and Bills (13/209/4) gained more than 200 yards from their wideouts. The Dolphins tend to play from the lead, with their best success scoring coming at home (194 points over five matchups). Their defense has been helped by facing six below-par passing attacks (@NE, NYG, CAR, NE, LV, and @NYJ). Miami has 38 sacks, with quarterbacks gaining 6.9 yards per pass attempt. CB Jalen Ramsey (7/66/0 on 19 targets) has three interceptions over his four games back with the Dolphins.
Based on his CB/WR matchup, McLaurin doesn’t have the best situation for an explosive game. The combination of Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey will be formidable in coverage. On the positive side, he should see more single-coverage, giving McLaurin a better chance of hitting on a long catch for a touchdown. I like his salary, and Washington may throw the ball 50 times in this game.
Christian Kirk, JAC (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,900)
Trevor Lawrence threw the ball better over his last two starts (262/2 and 364/1). That gave him his best two fantasy days of the season. Unfortunately, Kirk (3/48 and 4/89) has been outshined by Calvin Ridley (7/121/2 and 5/89/1) in back-to-back games. Over his home starts, Kirk has 35 catches for 449 yards and two touchdowns on 55 targets (16.15 FPPG) while being a weaker option on the road (21/312/1 – 11.56 FPPG). He has 13 touchdowns over his 30 career games with the Jaguars.
The Bengals are about league average in wide receiver defense (119/1,854/8 on 203 targets), but they allow 15.6 yards per catch to wideouts. The Seahawks (16/254) and Texans (16/268/1) had the most success. Cincinnati gave up fewer than 10 catches to wide receivers in five matchups (CLE – 7/92, ARI – 8/105/1, SF – 7/154, BAL – 9/206/2, and PIT – 9/124). CB Cam Taylor-Britt (29/514/2 on 52 targets per PFF) missed last week’s game with a quad issue. He has a boom-or-bust feel in coverage, highlighted by wide receivers gaining 17.7 yards per catch against him.
Jacksonville has a sneaky upside matchup for their passing game in Week 13. Kirk should break out of his recent slump and end his four-game scoreless drought. When at his best, he can gain more than 100 yards, with a chance at multiple touchdowns. His lower salary is a drawing card over Calvin Ridley.
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