Week 13 NFL Quarterback Report
Last week, the top-tier quarterbacks all posted impact games. Josh Allen (44.05) led the way in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues while outdueling Jalen Hurts (38.50). Dak Prescott (35.55) continued his midseason rise, as did C.J. Stroud (33.90). Seven other quarterbacks scored between 21.00 and 29.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 12 weeks:
- Josh Allen (27.91)
- Jalen Hurts (27.26)
- C.J. Stroud (24.05)
- Dak Prescott (23.81)
- Justin Herbert (23.60)
Using our Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 13 NFL Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
The passing attack for the Eagles lost momentum over their last three games (207/2, 150/0, and 200/3). But Hurts held form by his success on the ground (36/130/5). Philadelphia is in the middle of a challenging five-game run (DAL, @KC, BUF, SF, and @DAL). Hurts had a floor of 25.00 fantasy points in seven of his last eight matchups while offering three impact games (31.35, 31.55, and 38.50). Last year, the 49ers held him to 160 combined yards with one rushing touchdown.
San Francisco has the fourth-best defense (15.55 FPPG) defending quarterbacks, with three offenses (NYG – 313/2, MIN – 377/2, and CIN – 326/3) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They play well vs. the run, and quarterbacks gain only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Three teams (LAR – 24/243, MIN – 17/241/2, and CIN – 21/235/3) gained more than 200 yards with their wideouts.
Hurts has a high floor, and the Eagles need him to play well to beat the 49ers. His matchup isn’t ideal for the daily games unless the Eagles throw the ball much better. I don’t see him scoring 33.00 fantasy points, which is needed to fill his salary bucket.
C.J. Stroud, Hou (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,000)
Stroud’s success over the last four weeks (1,530/12) pushed him to third in quarterback scoring (264.50). His best play continues to be at home (2,074/16 over six games – 9.1 yards per pass). He only has six scores on the road over five starts. Stroud added to his floor by scoring three times on the ground over the last five weeks. His two impact games came in Week 9 (46.50) and Week 12 (33.90).
Denver climbed to 23rd in quarterback defense (21.03) after playing much better over the last seven weeks (11.55, 21.40, 18.10, 11.00, 19.15, 21.15, and 14.60 fantasy points). Their pass defense showed more risk in Week 3 (MIA – 375/5) and Week 4 (CHI – 360/4), with both matchups coming on the road. Over the past five games, quarterbacks averaged 224 combined yards with six touchdowns.
His top-shelf salary requires 300+ yards with four touchdowns to be in play. Houston tends to do most of their scoring via the pass. However, the Texans need Denver to speed up the game with the pass to create a higher-scoring environment.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)
Over his six starts on the road, Tagovailoa only had eight touchdowns with six interceptions while averaging 275 passing yards. His best outcome away from Miami came in Week 1 (466/3). He passed for over 300 yards in four of his five home starts while delivering 14 scores.
Washington has the worst pass defense (25.33 FPPG) in the league, with four teams (DEN – 364/3, CHI – 339/4, PHI – 325/4, and DAL – 341/4) scoring more than 30.00 fantasy points. Quarterbacks have 28 passing touchdowns, with seven teams scoring more than 30 points. Their pass rush has 35 sacks, with 16 coming in two games (7 and 9).
The Dolphins lost LB Jaelen Phillips to season-ending surgery last week, giving the Commanders’ offense a potential bump in moving the ball. The over/under for this game is 49.5, pointing to a high-scoring game. Washington has won the time of possession in five of their last six matchups, giving them a chance to keep Miami’s offense on the sidelines for many plays. The Dolphins should run the ball well, giving Tagovailoa opportunities to make some big scoring plays via Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. His matchup makes sense, and the Commanders will score some points in this matchup.
Mid-Tier Options
Jared Goff, DET (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,600)
The Lions struggled in back-to-back home games vs. division opponents, but they were able to win one of those games, thanks to the Bears playing not to lose in Week 11. Over the last five games, their defense allowed 145 points and 18 touchdowns, forcing the Lions to chase on the scoreboard in three matchups. Goff has more than two touchdowns in two contests (323/3 and 234/4) while passing for more than 300 yards in three other games (353/2, 333/2, and 332/2).
The Saints rank 11th vs. quarterbacks (18.15 FPPG), with three teams (GB – 298/2, TB – 277/3, and MIN – 312/2) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. The defense only has 18 sacks, but quarterbacks gain only 6.3 yards per pass attempt with 14 touchdowns.
Detroit has a balanced offense, and they score half the time on the ground. New Orleans lost their way vs. the run over the last four weeks (24/164/1, 32/156, 33/125/2, and 41/228/1), with quarterbacks gaining 7.9 yards per pass attempt over the last two weeks. Goff won’t be a popular play this week, but he may surprise. The first step in his playability is the Saints having their top two wideouts in the starting lineup.
Sam Howell, WAS (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,500)
Based on pass attempts over the last six weeks (42, 52, 45, 44, 45, and 44), Howell has one of the best passing performances in the NFL, giving his receivers a high floor in catches over this span (156 catches). He gained more than 300 yards in four of his last five starts, with three productive showings in fantasy points (30.30, 35.95, and 28.30) on the year. On the downside, Howell had more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (8) at home.
Miami is just below the league average against quarterbacks (19.53 FPPG – 19th), with better plays over the last four weeks (15.05, 18.65, 14.85, and 11.15 fantasy points. Their worst outcomes came in Week 4 (BUF – 334/5) and Week 7 (PHI – 300/3). The Dolphins have 38 sacks, with quarterbacks gaining 6.9 yards per pass attempt.
Howell will have plenty of chances to throw the ball in a chaser game. I expect him to get his yards, but he must finish drives with touchdowns to reach a playable number in the DFS market. Based on his salary, 300 yards with two scores is well within reach. His receiving corps is relatively cheap, helping daily gamers build winnable Commanders’ stacks in Week 13.
Low-Value Options
Kenny Pickett, PIT (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,700)
Pickett comes into this week as the 28th-ranked quarterback in scoring (132.40), with his only game with 20.00 fantasy points coming in Week 3 (20.85). He only has six touchdowns on the year while averaging 28.5 passes. The Steelers ran the ball well over the last four games (30/166/1, 36/205/2, 26/172/1, and 33/153/1), pointing to the Cardinals game planning to stop the tun.
Arizona ranks 26th in quarterback defense (21.63 FPPG), with struggles in three matchups (NYG – 380/3, CIN – 324/3, and LAR – 231/4). Their defense has tons of risk vs. running backs (333/1,499/12 – 4.5 YPC with 58 catches for 372 yards and six scores).
Much of the daily world will look to play the Steelers’ backfield in some way in this matchup. Pittsburgh threw the ball much better last week (278 yards) under their new offensive coordinator. Pickett could be a contrarian play, but he still needs the Cardinals to put up a fight on the scoreboard to post a winning day.
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