Week 11 NFL Player Props
For the first time this season, we didn’t have a profitable week. In Week 10, we finished 3-4 (-1.5 Units) and are now 31-24 (+8.8 Units) on the 2023 season. It’s time to get back in the winning column after a tough week with our Week 11 NFL Player Props.
As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props as we prepare for Week 11’s slate of NFL action. Unlike last week when several high-powered offenses were on bye weeks such as the reigning AFC and NFC Champions, Week 11’s bye belongs to four mediocre teams: the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, and the abysmal New England Patriots.
Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 11 NFL player prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.
Bryce Young OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-105)
The Panthers are now 10.5-point underdogs on the road against a filthy Dallas Cowboys defense. You might be wondering why I’d recommend this prop when Bryce Young has struggled so much and we’ve seen how dominant this Cowboys team can be. However, a blowout would result in Carolina playing catch-up and airing it out all night to try to even the score.
Dallas is 4-1 against the spread when laying at least six points this season and their average margin of victory in those four wins is 27.5 points (largely due to the New York Giants). Young is going to have to throw the ball if Carolina has any chance at keeping pace with Dallas’ high-octane offense.
It’s important to note that in every single game that Young started in which the Panthers lost by double digits, he attempted at least 38 passes. With the Panthers expected to fall behind big time in this game, the franchise will likely want to see what the No.1 pick in this year’s draft can do given this is already a lost season for the 1-8 Panthers. Even if they are down big, it’s hard to envision Young being benched. The team will want to further his development and not shake his confidence. Take the Over.
Will Levis OVER 0.5 interceptions (-130)
Levis has thrown an interception in back-to-back games and now faces a tough Jacksonville Jaguars defense that ranks sixth in DVOA against the pass. Not to mention, the Jaguars have 11 interceptions on the season, tied for the fourth-highest mark across the NFL.
The Titans’ offense live has struggled in recent weeks and the Jags should be able to apply enough consistent pressure to force the young rookie into not just one, but several mistakes. The Titans only scored six points in their loss to the Buccaneers last week and I foresee this offense’s struggles continuing in Week 11.
Travis Etienne OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Jags were absolutely embarrassed last week and will look to get back on track by doing what they do best, running the football. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t lived up to expectations and Calvin Ridley has been somewhat of an afterthought in recent weeks. It’s time for Jacksonville to get the ball into their best playmakers’ hands and that’s Travis Etienne.
This week, Jacksonville will take on a struggling Tennessee Titans team. After finishing as the top run-stuffing defense in 2022 and starting the year strong by allowing just 70 yards on the ground per game to open the 2023 campaign, the Titans’ run defense has regressed substantially. Before last week’s matchup against the Bucs, Tennessee surrendered 159.5 rushing yards per game from Week 5 to Week 9.
Although they allowed just 77 yards on the ground last week, that’s because Tampa Bay tends to use their running backs in the short passing game. The Bucs have the second-worst rushing offense in the league so it’s not that noteworthy that the Titans were stingy on the ground last week.
What is important to note is that in the Jaguars’ six victories this season, the team averaged 32 rushing plays per game for an average of 118.3 yards. In their three losses, those numbers drop dramatically to 20.7 attempts for 83 yards per game. It seems quite simple that the success formula is to pound the rock with Etienne. The talented dual-threat back will get plenty of opportunities in a game where the Jags are favored by a touchdown.
Also, Etienne is already second in the league in rushing attempts and Tank Bigsby doesn’t see a ton of touches. Etienne has seen over 80% of Jacksonville’s carries by a running back in 2023. Considering the expected game flow, Tennessee’s recent struggles against the run, and the pure volume that we should expect, Etienne should blow by this line. Smash the Over.
Jerome Ford OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Ford is coming off one of his best performances of the season against Baltimore in which he produced a career-high 107 rushing yards on 17 carries in Cleveland’s come-from-behind win. It was just the second time that Ford eclipsed the century mark this season. Sure enough, the only other time he accomplished that feat was back in Week 2 against the same Pittsburgh Steelers that he will face in Week 11.
With Deshaun Watson out for the season, the Browns have turned to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson over P.J. Walker. With the former third-string quarterback starting under center, I’m anticipating a very heavy workload for Ford and Kareem Hunt. Ford has only produced 50+ yards on the ground in four of nine outings this season but he faces off with a Steelers defense that is allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game (131.2).
Given that this is a divisional matchup, this game should be very physical and I expect a pretty even matchup. The Browns are going to attempt to run the ball down Pittsburgh’s throats and one big play could help Ford smash this line. Although Hunt will get plenty of touches, I’m confident that Ford will finish with at least 50 rushing yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Lions are one of the fun storylines in the NFL this season under passionate and gutsy head coach, Dan Campbell. Their offense is also one of the most explosive in the NFC with several playmakers in both the passing and running game.
This week, the Lions take on the Chicago Bears. In a division game with a healthy Justin Fields under center, this game could be a lot closer than some are anticipating. The Sun God should continue to dominate as one of the hottest receivers in the NFL.
The sensational wideout has topped 100 yards in six of his last seven outings and is averaging 107.1 receiving yards per game over that span. In Week 4, he only tallied 56 yards against another division rival, the Green Bay Packers, but that was on a short week while he was dealing with two different injuries (abdomen and toe). Since Week 4, St. Brown has been unstoppable.
Now that he’s healthy, I’m anticipating the superstar receiver to dominate Chicago’s zone coverage. St. Brown should find space across the middle of the field where he is amongst the most dynamic playmakers in the league. The All-Pro receiver has been dominating the target share — both against man coverage and zone. But he sees an even higher target rate against zone (29% to 26.1% against man).
Although the Bears rank in the middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed per game to wideouts (144.8), they do allow the seventh-most passing yards per game overall. They also play zone more than three-quarters of defensive snaps, which plays to St. Brown’s strengths. The Bears simply don’t have the cornerbacks to compete with the Sun God. Chicago’s DBs have yielded 86 catches on 114 zone targets (75.5% catch rate). Plus, their primary slot corner, Kyler Gordon, is allowing a whopping 87.5% catch rate while in zone coverage.
St. Brown is coming off four consecutive 100+-yard performances and has seen a ridiculous 52 targets over that span. In an exploitable matchup against Chicago’s very beatable secondary, I am slamming the over, especially at home where Jared Goff tends to excel.
Jayden Reed OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Everyone, myself included, expected Christian Watson to be Green Bay’s WR1 heading into the season. However, amidst Green Bay’s offensive struggles, it’s clear that Jordan Love and Watson have not developed the rapport some were reporting about during training camp. In fact, Love’s passer rating is only 37.8 when targeting Watson this season. And five of his targets have resulted in interceptions. In steps Jayden Reed, who has come on over the past few weeks.
Reed has topped 80 receiving yards in two of his past three contests and clearly has earned his quarterback’s trust after finding the end zone in Week 10. This week, Green Bay faces a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has been dreadful against the pass. No team has allowed more passing yards per game. They also allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. In a game where Green Bay will likely fall behind, Love will have to air it out and Reed should be one of the beneficiaries. Take the over.
George Kittle OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The veteran tight end has found his stride over the last few weeks. Kittle has topped this line in four of his last five outings and scored four touchdowns over that span. He had tallied at least 116 receiving yards in each of his previous two contents and faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary that has been shredded by tight ends this season. The Bucs allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and really struggle in the slot.
In Week 9, this same secondary yielded 10 receptions for 130 yards to Dalton Schultz. Look for Purdy to continue to lock in on his tight end, who provides so many mismatches. Considering he is averaging more than seven targets per game over his last three games and has cleared this by a significant margin in recent weeks, I like Kittle’s chances of surpassing 45 yards in Week 11.
