Week 10 NFL Player Props
FullTime Fantasy Members are getting their money’s worth if they’ve been following this column since the beginning of the season. Despite one week with a losing record, we had been profitable every single week we released prop bets to target. That trend continued in Week 9 when we went 4-2 (+1.7 Units). We are now 28-20 (+10.2 Units) on the 2023 season.
As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props as we prepare for Week 10’s slate of NFL action. Last week, I recommended the Dameon Pierce under. But because he was ruled out, that bet was void. We would have gone 5-1 if not for Patrick Mahomes’ last-minute kneeldowns that lost him a few critical rushing yards. This week, we’ll be sure to target seven healthy players and look to continue our hot streak!
Fantasy football managers have an edge when it comes to prop betting. That is because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 10 NFL player props to continue our profitable sports betting season.
C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120)
After last week’s epic five-touchdown performance, Stroud throwing two touchdown passes at plus odds seems like a slam dunk. Especially against Cincinnati’s 22nd-ranked defense against opposing quarterbacks. Although Stroud has much better splits in Houston versus the road, the Texans are going to have to air it out to keep up with Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Stroud won’t repeat his earth-shattering performance of Week 9. But I like his chances of finding the end zone twice on Sunday.
Houston’s rushing game has been abysmal with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Texans rely on the young rookie yet again. Even without Nico Collins, Stroud still has Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and even Robert Woods returned to practice this week.
And although Stroud has struggled on the road, he’s returning to the same neck of the woods where he played his college ball. This isn’t the same type of road game he’s played previously in the NFL. He’ll have tons of support from Ohio State alumni in Cincinnati. Given the odds, the expected game flow, and Stroud’s recent success, slam the over.
Lamar Jackson OVER 210.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Jackson has made us some money this season so we’re going right back to him after his Ravens crushed the Cleveland Browns 28-3 in their first meeting of the season. That said, the Browns have one of the best defenses in the league and rank first in passing yards allowed and second in yards per attempt. Still, Jackson should clear this prop line.
The talented dual-threat quarterback has leaned more on his arm than in years past. He is completing a ridiculous 71.5% of his passes this season and has seen an uptick in his accuracy. Although Lamar has thrown for fewer than 210 yards in more than half of his contests this season, game flow had a significant part to play in his final stats.
The Ravens have had a few blowouts this season, which is why they kept the ball on the ground late in games. I don’t foresee a blowout in Week 10 against this top-notch defense. Especially with a healthy Deshaun Watson under center for the Browns. This is Jackson’s opportunity to really make a statement in a rivalry game and I expect Mark Andrew, Zay Flowers, and even Odell Beckham to step up in this highly anticipated matchup.
Jackson finished with 186 yards on just 19 attempts in Baltimore’s 28-3 thrashing of the Browns in their first matchup of the season. But with Watson active, this game should be much more competitive, which means Jackson will have to continue to throw the ball late in the game.
Tony Pollard AnyTime Touchdown (+105)
Pollard has been a disappointment from a fantasy football perspective this season and has only found the end zone twice through nine weeks of the season. Both of his trips to the end zone occurred back in Week 1 against the New York Giants. On Sunday, the Cowboys get a rematch with Big Blue but this time they get to play at home in Jerry’s World. Although Pollard hasn’t found the end zone since early September, he still owns 70% of the team’s red-zone rushing attempts.
The Giants have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season and have yielded the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Pollard will turn it around in Week 10 and get back in the scoring column.
Alvin Kamara OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
As long as Kamara’s receiving prop line stays under 40 yards, there’s no reason to not go back to him. He’s cashed on his receiving yards prop both times we played him. Additionally, the line has barely increased. Kamara has now topped 35 receiving yards in four straight games, so there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again when the Saints travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings on Sunday.
Derek Carr loves to check down to his dual-threat running back. Kamara has been targeted eight times per game this season and has caught seven passes per game. Although Brian Flores’s defense is pretty stingy against the run under, they rank in the middle of the pack in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
However, because they have been strong against the rush, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, expect New Orleans to attack Minnesota’s front seven with several screen passes to Kamara. Given that Michael Thomas has struggled to get on the same page with Carr, Kamara should remain a focal point in New Orleans’ passing game. Smash the over.
DeAndre Hopkins OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Hopkins has been solid since Will Levis took over for the injured and struggling Ryan Tannehill. D-Hop has seen a 23.5% target share and a 40.2% air-yard share with Levis under center. Over his last two contests, the veteran wideout has accumulated 188 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
This week, the Titans face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary that was shredded by C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Tampa Bay is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Also, they’re surrendering the most receiving yards per game to the position (210.4).
Although Hopkins has only surpassed this prop line in two of his last four contests, he’s trending in the right direction. Also, Hopkins is building a rapport with his rookie quarterback. Plus, he has one of the juiciest matchups on the slate. I’d consider throwing multiple units on this one.
DK Metcalf OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Metcalf has had an up-and-down season but has one of the most favorable matchups at the wide receiver position in Week 10. Seattle will face a Washington Commanders secondary that is allowing 189 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts and the third-most fantasy points to the position group. The Commanders also permit a whopping 9.9 yards per target on the season.
Meanwhile, Geno Smith’s go-to man is averaging seven targets per game. He has surpassed this line in four out of eight contests this season. With Tyler Lockett still nursing a hamstring injury, Metcalf may be asked to do a bit more even though he’s been sidelined at practice with a hip injury of his own.
Nonetheless, it appears Metcalf is poised to suit up on Sunday. And if he does, I like his chances of clearing 64 receiving yards against a Commanders secondary that has struggled to contain big and fast receivers all season. Metcalf is a homerun threat who could clear this prop on one catch. His lone reception last week was a 50-yard bomb.
In a must-win situation, I like Metcalf’s chances of leading the team in receiving and surpassing 64 yards.
Kyle Pitts Over 19.5 Longest Reception (-110)
Although Pitts has been a bit of a disapointment from a fantasy perspective now that he’s sharing the field with Jonnu Smith, Pitts is poised for a big game against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is allowing an embarrassing 64% completion rate on throws of 15 yards downfield. This puts them last in the NFL in this stat.
Pitts has been Atlanta’s most-targeted downfield receiver. The third-year tight end has seen 29% of the team’s targets at 15+ yards. Also, he is seeing 1.9 of these targets per contest. After a slow start to the season, Pitts has seen an uptick in his production. And he’s hit the over on this prop in four of his last five outings.
Taylor Heinicke has helped the young tight end from a purely statistical standpoint. Heinicke threw the ball 15+ yards downfield on 32% of his dropbacks last week. Desmond Ridder never reached that mark and averaged only 19% on the season. Pitts has a great chance of producing 20 yards on a reception in Week 10.
