Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10

Predictably, Week 9’s Steelers/Titans game lacked fantasy firepower. And that appears to be applicable again in Week 10 as the offensively-challenged Panthers travel to Chicago to take on the last-place Bears. Our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10 breaks down the fantasy prospects in a game that seemingly lacks talking points.

The Panthers mustered only 275 yards of offense and 13 points in a home loss to the Colts. Now, the 1-win Panthers must travel on short rest. Carolina is 0-4 on the road and has yet to win a game against an NFC rival.

Meanwhile, the Bears have quarterback concerns. Tyson Bagent has been adequate, but Chicago’s offense lacks scoring upside without Justin Fields. Last week, the Bears out-gained New Orleans but dropped to 1-2 without Fields under center.

This game opened with the home team favored by just 1.5 points with a total of 41. However, early action on the Bears pushed the line to -3 and the total dipped to 39.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Carolina Panthers	30	27	24	31	26
Chicago Bears	14	24	4	15	19

Scoring has been an issue all season for the Panthers, and Carolina’s offensive line has been a big culprit. The Panthers rank 31st in passing yards per attempt and have allowed the fifth-most sacks. LT Ikem Ekwonu has struggled, leading to a lack of time and no ability for plays to develop downfield.

Carolina has only topped 250 passing yards once all season and their defense has allowed the second-most points and forced just seven turnovers. Subsequently, it is difficult to rely on the Panthers for points or fantasy production. Even when facing a Chicago defense that ranks 26th.

For the Bears, they will focus on keeping the ball on the ground. Chicago’s rushing attack ranks fourth and matches up well with a Carolina D that has surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards and allowed a league-worst 14 rushing touchdowns so far in 2023.

However, the biggest question for the Bears will be the health of quarterback Justin Fields. Tyson Bagent has filled in well for three games. But, Fields brings potential as a passer and runner that has been lacking.

Finally, weather should not be a factor. The forecast calls for 48-degree temperatures, with no precipitation or abnormal wind.

Carolina Offense

Bryce Young is being overshadowed by C.J. Stroud but Carolina’s O-line and play-calling share in the blame. Young has been sacked 29 times. Also, the Panthers rank 30th in adjusted net yards per attempt, 31st in aDOT, and last with a 5.8% deep throw rate.

However, Chicago ranks last in defensive sack rate and has struggled to keep opponents from converting third downs. Also, the Bears have been quite stout against the run. Given more time, Young should be able to sustain drives and challenge for modest QB2 numbers.

RB Chuba Hubbard has out-snapped Miles Sanders 91-30 in the last two games. Also, Hubbard has 39 opportunities in those contests, compared to Sanders’s 13. While the Bears rank fourth against the run, they’ve actually allowed the sixth-most fantasy points.

The biggest culprit has been through the air. Chicago has allowed a league-worst 538 yards and five receiving touchdowns to running backs. Look for Hubbard to approach 20 carries/targets, which puts him in RB2/3 territory. However, if the Bears can shut down the rushing attack, don’t discount Sanders as a source of targets after seeing five last week.

75% of Adam Thielen‘s routes have come from the slot. That gives Thielen a decided advantage over Chicago nickel corner Kyler Gordon. Thielen has accrued an NFL-high 53 slot targets and the Bears allow a first-read target at the seventh-highest rate. Therefore, this is a good spot for Thielen to rebound from a disappointing Week 9 performance.

Jonathan Mingo is second on the club with a 13.2% target share. However, the second-round rookie has only accumulated 20 grabs and 200 yards in seven games. Lack of volume has been a factor, which limits Mingo to little more than a DFS flier in single-game slates.

Laviska Shenault (ankle) and D.J. Chark (elbow) won’t play. Terrace Marshall Jr. will fill in as Carolina’s No. 3 wideout. But Marshall is only averaging 17.5 receiving yards per game. Subsequently, he’s well off the fantasy radar.

Chicago allows the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Hayden Hurst is fantasy-relevant. Hurst hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since the opener. Also, he’s scored fewer than six fantasy points in six of his last seven games. The target volume has not been there.

Chicago Offense

With Justin Fields doubtful, Tyson Bagent will draw his fourth start. In his three starts, Bagent has finished as the QB18, QB26, and QB11. He has tossed six interceptions against five total scores. The Panthers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks as most teams attack Carolina on the ground.

Chicago has an implied total 21.25 points, which leaves some room for QB2 production. However, I expect the Bears to utilize three running backs, which limits his upside.

Khalil Herbert still isn’t ready to play. That gives D’Onta Foreman another crack at the starting role. Foreman has been solid and gets a great matchup against a Carolina defense that has been getting killed on the ground. Roschon Johnson and Darrynton Evans will also mix in on passing downs.

D.J. Moore was cooking with Fields under center. However, his play since Fields was injured has tailed off dramatically. The target rate has been fine, but Moore has only averaged 51 receiving yards per game in his last four. Carolina has only allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers this season and the fourth-fewest fantasy points.

I do have some interest in Moore for the #RevengeGame narrative and because he will be the best wideout in this game. But, it will be a challenge for him to post top-20 numbers.

Darnell Mooney has fared better under Bagent. Mooney is coming off of a season-best 5-catch, 82-yard outing against the Saints. He’s had 4-plus targets in five of his last six games and has a 13.2% target share this season.

Tyler Scott has been the club’s WR3 but has only eight grabs this season.

The matchup isn’t much more appealing for Cole Kmet, but Chicago’s tight end has established himself as an every-week starter. Kmet enters Week 10 as the TE5. But the Panthers have been very good at defending the position. No opposing tight end has eclipsed 47 yards versus Carolina. This could be a lesser week for Kmet, but you’re still starting him.

Prediction & Best Bet

Carolina is almost as bad against the spread as they have been on the field. The Panthers are 1-6-1 ATS. That includes 0-4 on the road versus the number. It gets worse in real football, where they have dropped 12 of their last 14 road games. The UNDER is also 5-3 in Panther’s games this season, but only 1-3 on the road.

Meanwhile, Chicago is only 3-5-1 against the spread, including 1-2-1 at Soldier Field. The Bears beat the Raiders 30-12 in their last home game. But that was the first home victory for Chicago since Week 3 of the 2022 season.

As poorly as both of these franchises have played over the past two seasons, at least the Bears can occasionally score points. The OVER is 6-3 in Chicago’s nine games, including 3-1 as hosts.

I don’t have a good feel about this game. And as poorly as I’ve been picking lately, I recommend avoiding this one. Vegas thinks these teams would be even on a natural field, but it feels like the Bears are in a better spot.

Best Bet: Bears -3 PUSH

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