Week 9 DFS: Tight End Report
The injury to Zach Ertz was a big win for Trey McBride investors in Week 8. He was the top-scoring tight end (25.50) in PPR formats while finishing with his best career game (10/95/1). George Kittle (23.90), Taysom Hill (22.90), and T.J. Hockenson (20.80) were the only other players to score more than 20.00 fantasy points. Five other tight ends scored between 17.50 and 19.80 fantasy points. Here’s a look at the top five tight ends after eight weeks by scoring average:
- Travis Kelce (17.04)
- T.J. Hockenson (14.73)
- Sam LaPorta (13.80)
- Mark Andrews (13.46)
- George Kittle (11.81)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 9 DFS: QB Report.
Top-Tier Option
Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,500)
With Travis Kelce off the main slate on Sunday, Andrews has the highest salary at tight end at DraftKings and FanDuel. His targets have been low in five (5, 5, 6, 6, and 5) of his six starts, leading to no game with impact catches (six in Week 5) or yards (high of 80 in Week 4). Andrews posted his best fantasy point games (25.00 and 22.30) when he scored twice in each matchup. In 2022, Baltimore gave him double-digit targets in five contests, leading to four winning days (9/104/1, 8/89/2, 8/89/1, and 7/106/1).
Seattle sits 12th in tight end defense (30/342/1), with the worst showing coming last week vs. the Browns (5/83/1). They played two teams with weakness at tight end (CAR – 3/34 and CIN – 2/9). The Seahawks’ defense struggled over their first three games (30, 31, and 27) in points allowed. Over the last four games, they allowed 50 combined points and only five touchdowns.
Andrews appears to be overpriced in the daily market in Week 9, suggesting he’s only in play if using him with Lamar Jackosn and hoping for a much higher-scoring game than expected. Ultimately, Seattle needs to jump out to a big lead to force the Ravens to attempt more passes.
Mid-Tier Options
Dallas Goedert, PHI (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,800)
Over the past month, Goedert has been an every-other-week player (8/117/1, 5/42, 5/77/1, and 4/36), with his best outcomes coming in odd weeks. The Eagles gave him seven targets or more in five of his last seven starts. Last year, he posted two dull games (2/22 and 3/67) vs. the Cowboys.
Dallas ranks 20th defending tight ends (32/322/4 on 44 targets). No team has gained more than 70 receiving yards or had higher than six catches. The 49ers and George Kittle (3/67/3) had the best showing despite seeing only four targets.
Goedert isn’t projected to have an impact game in Week 9, but three of the top-scoring tight ends are on a bye week, plus Travis Kelce and Dalton Kincaid play in the early game in January. In addition, Darren Waller has been ruled out. Cole Kmet and T.J. Hockenson are playing with backup quarterbacks. Goedert plays in a high-scoring offense, and he has upside in catches and receiving yards in some matchups.
T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,700)
In Week 8, Hockenson (6/88/1) had his best success in yards per catch (14.7 – 9.0 for the season) of the year. He is on pace to catch 113 passes for 1,016 yards and six touchdowns. His salary is much more favorable this week, likely due to the Kirk Cousins injury. Hockenson scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in two matchups (25.60 and 20.80).
Atlanta played well vs. tight end over the past three weeks (WAS – 1/2, TB – 5/43, and TEN – 4/23), coming after three poor showings (8/84/1, 9/69, and 8/87/1). They rank 21st defending tight ends (45/381/3 on 59 targets).
The Vikings plan on riding rookie quarterback Jaren Hall in this game, creating a drop-off in their passing attack. K.J. Osborn (chest) and Brandon Powell (shoulder) come into this week’s matchup with injury concerns, inviting more chances for Hockenson. His name fits, and he should have a reasonable floor, but Hockenson can’t pay off without scoring.
Value Options
Cole Kmet, CHI (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,700)
Over two games with Tyson Bagent starting at quarterback, Kmet posted a no-catch game and a high-volume opportunity (10/79 on 10 targets). His only impact showing (7/85/2) came in Week 4 vs. the Broncos. Despite empty stats in three contests (2/22, 2/9, and 0/0), he is on pace to set career-highs in catches (74) and receiving yards (678).
The Saints have the fifth-best defense vs. tight ends (27/266/3 on 45 targets). They played six teams (TEN, CAR, GB, TB, NE, and IND) with below-par tight ends. Dalton Schultz (4/61/1) has the most success. New Orleans allows only 5.9 yards per pass attempt with a fading pass rush (eight sacks over their past six games).
Based on season ranking (7th) in tight end scoring, Kmet has the talent and the potential opportunity in a chaser game in Week 9. More of a gamble with any investment starting with the trust in Bagent.
David Njoku, CLE (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,500)
The stock of Njoku started to rise over the last two weeks (5/54 and 4/77/1) while receiving 17 combined targets. He came out of last week’s game with an ankle issue that appears to be minor. Despite below-par quarterback play, he is on pace (68/712/2) to beat last year’s stats (58/628/4).
Arizona comes into Week 9 with the second-best defense against tight ends (28/315/1 on 40 targets). Over the past five weeks, they’ve allowed 11 catches for 128 yards and one score on 13 targets. Darren Waller (6/76), Jake Ferguson (5/48), and Mark Andrews (4/40/1) posted the best games.
Over the last four weeks, the Browns’ passing game averaged 188 yards with one score, leading to weakness in all of Cleveland’s receiving options. This offense wants to run the ball, and they should control the clock in this matchup. Njoku only needs about 14.00 fantasy to be in the mix, and the Browns should score more in this game.
Kyle Pitts, ATL (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,200)
Pitts has been quiet over the Falcons’ previous two games (3/47 and 3/35) on the road while receiving 10 combined targets. His production was trending up in his two last two starts (7/87 and 4/43/1 on 17 targets) at home. He continues to have weakness in his catch rate (58.3) while trailing his previous two seasons in yards per catch (11.9 – 15.1 in 2021 and 12.7 in 2022).
Minnesota ranks just above the league average vs. tight ends (14th – 40/289/3 on 53 targets). Their defense struggled against the Chiefs (12/88/1) while giving up a pair of touchdowns to the Chargers’ tight ends (8/34/2). The Vikings’ defense played better over the last three weeks (13.3 points per game and four combined touchdowns).
On the year, the Falcons’ tight ends have 61 catches for 699 yards and two touchdowns on 90 targets, with high-level production in four games (11/88, 8/116, 14/176, and 9/88/2). Drake London comes into this week’s matchup with a groin issue and a possible no-go on Sunday, pointing to more balls going to their tight ends. One of Atlanta’s tight ends should score this week, and I expect Pitts to climb off the “do not play list” in Week 9.
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