Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9
Last week’s game was better than advertised, as the Bucs hung with the Bills. However, the Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9 offers up a pair of underperforming offenses that will be hard-pressed to be as entertaining.
Of course, that doesn’t mean this game has no headlines. Will Levis gets his first road start after an historic NFL debut. But, the Titans face a tough task traveling on short rest to take on the Steelers.
As for the Steelers, they face their own quarterback questions with Kenny Pickett’s health.
Both offenses have struggled in 2023, so we have an unusually low total of 36.5 points.
The Steelers are favored by just 2.5 points. That line tells us that Vegas thinks the Titans are the better team on a neutral field. But, are they?
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Tennessee Titans | 27 | 30 | 13 | 14 | 23 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 32 | 25 | 28 | 27 | 29 |
It has been a struggle for the Titans and Steelers to score points all season. Pittsburgh enters Week 9 with the league’s worst offense. The Steelers also rank last in the league with a 26.3% first-down rate and enter this game with only six touchdown passes in eight games.
Meanwhile, the Titans have the fewest pass attempts in football. Only the Jets and Browns have fewer passing yards than Tennessee’s 1,442. Tennessee is an old-school offense that churns out rushing yards, controls the clock, and is a top-5 unit in converting fourth downs.
Also, Tennessee has the edge defensively. The Titans boast the NFL’s 13th-ranked stop unit. They rank 13th against the run and in points allowed. Plus, the Titans are top-10 in sack rate.
Pittsburgh’s defense had dropped off. The Steelers have the fifth-worst run defense through eight weeks. That’s a mismatch against a Titans offense that wants to run the ball 30-plus times.
This game opened with the Steelers favored by 3.5 and a total of 37.5. However, both of those numbers have dipped by one point.
Tennessee Titans Offense
Will Levis made headlines in his first NFL start, throwing for 238 yards and 4 touchdowns. Levis made some excellent throws. However, he also was lucky and the Falcons blew several coverages. The second-round rookie will probably remain Tennesse’s starts. But, it is too early to tell what that means for fantasy purposes moving forward.
One observation to note is the soft over/under for Levis’s passing projections in this game. Vegas set the number at 202.5 yards. For Levis to post fantasy-relevant numbers he’s going to have to produce multiple touchdown passes again. However, Pittsburgh has allowed two TD passes in three of their seven games.
RB Derrick Henry was the target of trade speculation. However, none came to fruition, so he’ll be in the backfield for this game fresh off his second 100-plus-yard outing of the season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has allowed a starting running back to top double-digit fantasy points in every game this season, with three topping 20-plus points. Finally, Henry is a beat in primetime games.
#Titans Derrick Henry is the 👑 of primetime. pic.twitter.com/aXrh2XvAS9
— Sam Phalen (@Sam_Phalen) November 1, 2023
DeAndre Hopkins finally looked like a WR1 against Atlanta. Three of Levis’s four scores came via Hopkins. However, we must be cautious not to overreact. Hopkins only caught 4-of-6 targets and benefitted from blown coverages. On the other hand, the Steelers have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts and have really struggled against opposing No. 1 receivers. View Hopkins as a solid WR2 with WR1 upside.
D-Hop is about the only member of the Tennessee receiving corps that can be reliably started.
Treylon Burks returned from a month-long absence to play in 52% of Tennesse’s Week 8 snaps. However, Burks was unable to corral either of his two targets. The playing time was encouraging, but Burks should not be inserted into weekly lineups until the volume increases.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has played five more snaps than Hopkins. But, he only has 25 targets. He did catch a beautifully thrown pass for a score last week, but that lack of opportunities makes Westbrook-Ikhine little more than a DFS dart throw.
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo showed signs of life with Levis under center. He only recorded 23 yards, but did command six targets. However, Pittsburgh is allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, so view Okonkwo as little more than a mediocre TE2 in Week 9.
Pittsburgh Offense
Kenny Pickett was forced to leave Week 8 early with a rib injury. He’s been limited in practice this week but plans to start. Pickett has not played well this season but his questionable status is one of the reasons this game’s total is the lowest on the board.
Pickett has accumulated the fewest fantasy points for any quarterback that has made seven starts. He has only thrown one touchdown total in his last four starts. Also, Tennessee’s pass defense has greatly improved. The Titans have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. Pickett is little more than a middling QB2 in Supeflex formats.
The Steelers utilize a two-man backfield. Najee Harris leads the way with 53.5% of the snaps. Also, Harris has a 51.2% share of Pittsburgh’s carries. Harris leads the club with 313 rushing yards but has only one score all season. Facing a solid Tennessee run defense relegates Harris to RB3 status.
His backfield mate Jaylen Warren has accrued more fantasy points thanks to ranking ninth in the league with 32 targets. Warren has racked up three-plus receptions in six of Pittsburgh’s seven games while averaging over six carries. He reeled in 4-of-5 Levis targets last week and should be the safer option in this game.
George Pickens leads the receiving corps with a 23.9% target share. Off back-to-back 100-yard games, Pickens was held to a single grab last week. A touchdown somewhat salvaged his fantasy value. But in a game with such a depressed total, Pickens is somewhat TD-dependant against a secondary that has only allowed one wideout to surpass 75 yards since Week 3.
Since returning to the lineup, Diontae Johnson has resumed high high-volume role. In those two games, Johnson is averaging 10 targets and 82 receiving yards. However, with zero touchdowns in his last 20 games, Johnson’s upside is somewhat capped. Still, the heavy usage puts Johnson squarely in WR2 territory.
Slot receiver Allen Robinson has played 80% of Pittsburgh’s snaps but has only been target once in each of the team’s past two games.
With Pat Freiermuth on IR, Pittsburgh’s tight ends have become unreliable. Connor Heyward is coming off of a season-high six targets. However, four of those looks came via Mitchell Trubisky. 2-3 grabs for 23 yards sounds about right. Darnell Washington has a 1.7% target share. He should not be in any lineups.
Prediction & Best Bet
Fade Alert: It has been five weeks since we’ve gotten a Best Bet correct. The half-point loss in Week 7 hurt, but I’ve simply missed on the other games. Be forewarned.
Tennesse’s last road win came on November 17, 2022 in Green Bay. Since then, the Titans are 0-6 on the road and have scored two touchdowns in only one of those games. The Titans have also won just one of their last five trips to Pittsburgh and are 2-5 against the spread this season.
Also, the UNDER has hit in five straight games with the Titans as visitors. The Titans are 1-2 ATS on the road this season, with the under hitting in every game.
Can Will Levis turn that lack of scoring around?
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has won eight of their last 11 straight up and against the number. They’ve also come out victorious in five of their last six home games against this opponent.
Like the Titans, Pittsburgh is struggling to score. The UNDER is 6-1 in Steelers’ games this season. It is forecast to be 38 degrees at kickoff, with little wind and no precipitation.
Two teams that struggle mightily to score playing on short rest. All the trends also favor the under. However, since I’ve been struggling with my own analysis, let’s change it up. What could go wrong with picking OVER with an injured quarterback who is struggling facing a second-round rookie making his first road start?
Best Bet: OVER 36.5
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