Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report
Five of the top seven scoring running backs came off the pace in the running back rankings. D’Onta Foreman scored three times, leading to an impact game (33.00 fantasy points). Alvin Kamara (29.30) finished second, thanks to his value in passing game (12/91). The fantasy market saw the first sign of explosiveness from Jahmyr Gibbs (27.60), lifting him to 26th in running back scoring. Gus Edwards (21.40) and Jonathan Taylor (21.40) also climbed the running back rankings.
Over the last three weeks, Travis Etienne (27.47 FPPG) has been the highest-scoring running back, followed by Alvin Kamara (21.80 FPPG). Here are the top five running backs after seven weeks in fantasy points per game:
- Christian McCaffrey (24.66)
- Raheem Mostert (20.93)
- Travis Etienne (19.71)
- Kenneth Walker (17.43)
- Kyren Williams (15.87)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Elite Tier Option
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,200)
After a downtick in snaps in Week 5 (73%) and Week 6 (58%), the 49ers had McCaffrey on the field for all 53 plays against Minnesota. His rushing yards had been short in three consecutive games (19/51/1, 11/43, and 15/45/1), with a step back in value in receiving stats (2/27, 3/9/1, and 3/51/1). McCaffrey has a touchdown in each game in 2023 (11 scores over seven starts). He’s averaging 21.6 touches per game.
Cincinnati is about league-average defending running backs (20.27 FPPG) despite allowing 5.0 yards per rush. The Titans had the most success (27/162/1 with four catches for 29 yards). Backs only have 20 catches for 141 yards on 28 targets due to a favorable schedule (CLE – 23/171/2, BAL – 27/269/0, LAR – 18/128/1, TEN – 22/220/0, ARI – 23/120/0, and SEA – 23/153/0).
Brock Purdy is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a concussion. Over the first five games (all wins), the 49ers averaged 33.4 points (35.7 at home – 14 touchdowns over 32 possessions). San Francisco’s running backs already scored 17 touchdowns. That gives McCaffrey a much higher ceiling than all other backs in the NFL, along with a high floor. A two-game losing streak and some home-cooking points to the 49ers regaining their scoring in Week 8, led by Christian McCaffrey.
Second-Tier Options
Tony Pollard, DAL (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,600)
Six games into his 2023 season, Pollard is underachieving in yards per rush (3.9) and yards per catch (7.0) compared to 2022 (5.2/9.5). Over his 121 touches, he gained 20 yards or more on five plays (12 in 2022 over 232 chances), showing his explosiveness is relatively the same. His only two touchdowns came in Week 1 in New York. Pollard has more than 100 combined yards in three of his six starts, averaging 20.2 touches per game.
The Rams rank seventh against running backs (17.51 FPPG). Their run defense struggled vs. San Francisco (28/159/3) and Philadelphia (39/159/1). They’ve allowed rushing touchdowns, four by quarterbacks and one by a wide receiver. Los Angeles minimized the damage against running backs in the passing game (24/125/0 on 31 targets). The Steelers’ backs (20/85/2 on four catches for 14 yards) had success in Week 7 that could be a sign of risk by the Rams’ defense.
Dallas scored 68 points (nine touchdowns and five field goals over 22 possessions) in their two games at home vs. the Jets and Patriots, inviting a better performance by their offense. Pollard needs a correction game in yards, something Ja’Marr Chase and Travis Kelce had over the past three weeks. His three-down opportunity and scoring potential put him in the explosive category in the matchup.
Raheem Mostert, MIA (DK – $7,700/FD – $9,000)
Over the first seven weeks, a Miami player has posted an impact score seven times (Mostert – 45.20 and 34.20, Devin Achane – 51.30 and 27.00, and Tyreek Hill – 44.50, 30.70, and 32.10). The Eagles controlled the Dolphins’ backs in Week 7 (12/42 with three catches for 10 yards). Mostert was on the field 53% of Miami’s play vs. Philly compared to 37% by Salvin Ahmed and 14% by Jeff Wilson. His play has been much better at home (40/262/6 with 12 catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns) than on the road (44/212/3 with seven catches for 61 yards) while playing one fewer game. Mostert played well in his first matchup vs. the Patriots (127 combined yards with two touchdowns and one catch).
New England sits 19th in running back defense (22.36 FPPG). Backs have 37 catches for 274 yards and one touchdown on 43 targets. They allow only 3.4 yards per rush, with Miami (30/145/2) and New Orleans (42/136/1) having the most success. The Patriots have played four top teams (PHI, MIA, DAL, and BUF).
Mostert comes into this week with an ankle issue that may lower his snaps in this matchup. In addition, Tyreek Hill (hip) and Jaylen Waddle (back) are battling injuries. Miami has been a beast of an offense at home (143 points in three games). And the Patriots will give up points (25.3 per contest). My gut is to fade Mostert. But he is a player with big play (5.6 yards per rush) and scoring ability (11 touchdowns).
Third-Value Options
Breece Hall, NYJ (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,200)
In the Jets’ last game, they had Hall on the field for 66% of their snaps, leading to 93 combined yards with a touchdown and five catches on 17 touches. He delivered elite RB1 stats over his last two starts (34/216/2 with eight catches for 71 yards on 22 touches). Hall moved to 16th in running back scoring (13.15 FPPG) despite being on the field for only 47.3% of New York’s plays.
The Giants rank 21st in running back defense (23.20 FPPG), with the 49ers (179 combined yards with one touchdown and eight catches) and the Dolphins (243 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches). New York allows 5.0 yards per rush while allowing 10 rushing scores. Three opponents reached the end zone on the ground at least twice.
Over the last two weeks, the Giants’ defense played much better, leading to only three touchdowns and 21 points allowed. The Jets have a low-ranking passing offense (183 yards per game with three touchdowns). And they’ve yet to score more than twice in a game. Hall has a winnable matchup while looking poised to have a heavier workload. The Jets played four top teams (BUF, DAL, KC, and PHI). Finally, I expect their offense to be much better this week.
Isiah Pacheco, KC (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,400)
The Chiefs looked more to Pacheco in the passing game over the last two weeks (6/36 and 4/28/1), giving him a higher floor if this opportunity continues. Over the previous five games, he gained 380 combined yards with three touchdowns and 14 catches (17.50 FPPG). In Week 6, Kansas City gave him 22 touches in Week 6 vs. Denver (98 yards and six catches).
The Broncos have the worst defense in the league vs. running backs (37.14 FPPG) due to the Miami Dolphins scoring them for 441 combined yards with six touchdowns and 11 catches. Denver didn’t give up a touchdown to a running back over the last two games, but they had value in the passing game (10/65 and 7/64). Overall, running backs gained 1,430 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 47 catches.
Kansas City will use their running backs to attack Denver’s defense. Jerick McKinnon picked up a groin injury on Thursday, possibly inviting an even better opportunity in this favorable matchup. Pacheco needs about 24.00 fantasy points to be a viable option in Week 8, and he looks poised to fill his salary bucket.
Fourth-Tier Option
Kareem Hunt, KC (DK – $5,200/FD – $7,000)
The ankle injury to Jerome Ford opens up a starting opportunity for Hunt in Week 8. Over his limited action over the past two weeks, he gained 102 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches on 25 touches. Cleveland had him on the field for 25% of their plays in Week 8 and 37% in Week 7. Game flow helped Pierre Strong have more snaps (31%) as well against the Colts. Hunt is gaining 3.2 yards per rush, so he isn’t a lock to have a high-volume opportunity.
Seattle struggled vs. running backs over the first two games (26.30 and 27.70 fantasy points), but they improved their running back defense (19.12 FPPG) in each of their last four matchups. Backs are gaining only 3.1 yards per rush with 32 catches for 196 yards.
Cleveland’s running backs have been productive over their first six games (173/774/6 – 4.5 yards per rush with 23 catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns). Hunt should be the Browns’ top choice at the goal line, and the Broncos will give him some chances in catches. PJ Walker doesn’t have a great resume, and Cleveland somehow won their last two matchups with him behind center. Hunt’s salary plays well at DraftKings but invites higher ownership. Caption Lux hates these running back situations in the DFS market as they fail at a much higher rate than they come in. My second update on Hunt should paint a better picture of his potential on Sunday.
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