Week 7 NFL Player Props
Week 6 was another profitable week for the bettors at FullTime Fantasy. Including the bonus Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown wager I recommended. We went 5-3 and profited 2.7 units after doubling down on Mostert’s rushing yard prop. We are now 21-15 (+7.8 units) on the season.
Lamar Jackson surpassed his line by a single yard on Sunday morning and T.J. Hockenson just managed to haul in the six receptions he needed to hit his prop. That said, Mostert and Cooper Kupp shredded their lines as anticipated. Gardner Minshew threw for a ton of yards due to gamescript which I did not anticipate and D.J. Moore missed his line by a meager nine yards, in large part due to Justin Fields exiting the game with a dislocated thumb.
Unfortunately, the week could have been even better if Tony Pollard had done what he should have against a susceptible Los Angeles Chargers defense. Nonetheless, a profitable week is still money in the bank. Let’s continue to build up that bankroll heading into Week 7.
Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below.
Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 7 NFL player prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.
Josh Allen UNDER 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Surprisingly, Allen has hit his rushing yard prop line just once this entire season. I don’t anticipate that trend changing this week in a game in which the Bills are heavy favorites. On the season (outside of quarterback sneaks), the Bills have only called two designed quarterback runs for Allen. Allen has only rushed the ball more than four times once this entire season back in Week 1. Given the fact that Allen is dealing with a shoulder injury and that the Bills are expected to easily dispatch the New England Patriots, I anticipate the Bills doing everything in their power to prevent an aggravation to Allen’s current injury. He’s not going to run unless he has to. Take the under.
Geno Smith OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)
The Seahawks are looking forward to a divisional matchup when they host the Arizona Cardinals. Last week, Seattle fell to 3-2 after losing to the Cincinnati Bengals. It was the first time all year that Smith was held without a touchdown.
This year, Smith has only managed to throw multiple touchdown passes in one of five outings. However, this may be his best chance to bounce back. Arizona hasn’t been particularly good defensively. They are currently allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Arizona ranks 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 28th in total defense and 27th in points allowed. It has given up nine passing touchdowns on the season.
I think the entire Seahawks offense will have a huge offensive game and that this game will end up in a blowout. Smith will get back on track and find the end zone twice. Take the Over.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Kenneth Walker has made us some loot this season so we’re going back to the well with Seattle hosting the dreadful Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. The Seahawks are the second-biggest favorites in Week 7. And Walker should be able to light up this defense. After all, Arizona is coming off a Week 6 loss in which they allowed 158 yards on the ground to Kyren Williams. Although Williams is becoming more and more reliable, he’s not as talented in between the tackles as Walker.
The Cards are currently allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and the third-most fantasy points. This defense has been horrible against the rush and is 24th in rush defense EPA. They’re also 30th in run-stop win rate. Meanwhile, Walker has posted 62+ yards in four of his five outings this season. Finally, the game script should work significantly in his favor in this one. Walker will easily eclipse this line.
Gus Edwards UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Ravens have a very difficult matchup this week against a Detroit Lions defense that is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season (68) and the fewest fantasy points to the position group. Edwards has been in a timeshare with Justice Hill and now Keaton Mitchell could also get a few reps in Baltimore’s banged-up running back room.
Edwards has struggled to hit 40 rushing yards all season. He has surpassed this line in four of six outings this season. But I think given the matchup, and the fact that Lamar Jackson may be asked to do more with his legs, Edwards will struggle in this Week 7 matchup.
Stefon Diggs OVER 6.5 Receptions (-125)
Diggs has been dominant all season. The veteran wideout has produced at least seven receptions and 100+ receiving yards in five of his first six games to begin the 2023 campaign. In a close Week 6 battle against the New York Giants, Diggs saw a ridiculous 16 targets. He turned that into 10 receptions for 100 yards.
This week, Diggs and the Bills have a much tougher matchup against a New England Patriots defense that is known for taking away the opposing team’s best playmaker. Still, the Patriots play man-to-man the eighth-most in the entire NFL. That favors Diggs. Not a single corner in New England has the moves to stay with the shifty Diggs. Although the Pats love to play man coverage, they don’t have great cornerbacks. Especially with rookie Christian Gonzalez sidelined due to injury.
When facing man coverage, Josh Allen has been targeting his main man a whopping 29% of the time. Diggs is currently sixth in the league in targets and fourth in receptions. The offense is going to run through him if the Bills want to march to another victory. Not to mention, in the six games that Diggs has played against New England since joining the Buffalo Bills, he has accumulated at least seven catches in four of his six outings. Look for Diggs to smash this over on Sunday.
Cooper Kupp OVER 90.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Last week, Kupp made us some money so we’re going back to him in a matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In his two games back from injury, Kupp looks like he missed no time at all. The chemistry is back with Matthew Stafford as the veteran wideout produced 118 receiving yards in Week 5 and 148 yards in Week 6.
In Week 7, the Rams face a Seteelers secondary that is allowing the second-most yards to opposing wideouts (210) and the fourth-most fantasy points to the position group.
Back in his amazing 2021 campaign, I kept taking the over on Kupp because he was having a ridiculous season and bookmakers could only list his prop line so high. That year, he has at least 92 yards in every game except one. And his line ended up surpassing 100 yards towards the end of the year.
I think we’re looking at a very similar situation in 2023. Sure, Puka Nacua will continue to demand targets but Kupp is still the go-to man. If the Rams want to compete in this one, especially with Kyren Williams on the sidelines, Kupp will need to perform at an elite level. Stafford is going to pepper him with targets. Smash the over.
Cole Kmet Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kmet has hit this mark in four of six games this season but without Justin Fields in the lineup, Kmet will struggle to get anything going against Las Vegas. The Raiders rank in the middle of the pack against opposing tight ends but with Tyson Bagent starting under center for the injured Fields, it’s hard to envision Kmet eclipsing this line. Las Vegas has only allowed an opposing tight end to reach 34 yards in three of their six contests this season and Kmet isn’t considered elite among his position group.
Once Bagent came in for Fields last week, Kmet was targeted only three times, finishing with two catches for nine yards. With D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney, and Robert Tonyan Jr. also getting targets in what should be a run-heavy approach, expect Kmet to fall short.
