Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report
Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa (25.10). Desmond Ridder (22.15) was the best value player in the DFS market. Four other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points.
Surprisingly, Justin Herbert is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback (26.03 FPPG), scoring between 22.35 and 26.05 fantasy points in four of his five starts, with one impact game (33.35). Josh Allen (25.82 FPPG), Jalen Hurts (25.40 FPPG), and Tua Tagovailoa (24.23 FPPG) round out the top four. Ten other quarterbacks are averaging between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points.
The top underachievers are Trevor Lawrence (18.11), Dak Prescott (16.88), Geno Smith (16.61), and Joe Burrow (14.37).
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)
Despite a favorable schedule (DET, JAC, CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) to start the season, the Chiefs scored only 15 offensive touchdowns on their 63 possessions (23.8%) compared to 59 TDs in 2022 over their 180 chances (32.8%). Mahomes passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (305/2, 303/3, and 306/1) while attempting 41 passes in each of those starts. His wideouts delivered only two games with more than 60 yards receiving (Skyy Moore – 3/70/1 and Rashee Rice – 4/72). In addition, there have been only three games with over four catches by wide receivers (Kadarius Toney – 5/35 and 5/26 and Rashee Rice – 5/59). Over two games in 2022 vs. the Chargers, Mahomes passed for 564 yards and five touchdowns.
Los Angeles comes into Week 7 with the worst quarterback defense (26.09 FPPG) in the league, with two offenses having a high level of success (MIA – 466/4 and MIN – 367/4). They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt while delivering 21 sacks over the last four weeks. The Chargers’ defense lost the time of possession battle in three of their previous four matchups.
Mahomes rates as the top quarterback in Week 7. But he doesn’t deserve it based on the play of the Chiefs’ offense. He’ll throw many passes, creating plenty of completions and long drives. Unfortunately, the weakness in LA’s defense (secondary vs. wide receivers – 73,1,107/7 ~ 15.2 yards per catch) isn’t an area of strength for Kansas City (70/857/4 on 112 targets ~ 12.2 yards per catch). On the positive side, Rashee Rice looks close to becoming the second option in the passing game. And Travis Kelce is rounding into form. A Mahomes/Rice/Kelce stack costs $21,000 at DraftKings, requiring 84.00 fantasy points to pay off. I can’t dismiss Mahomes as this game has the highest game total (49) on the main slate on Sunday. And his matchup could lead to a spike in points scored.
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
Vegas has the Bills favored by 8.5 points on the road vs. the Patriots with an over/under of 41. This information suggests an outcome in the area of a 25 to 16 victory by Buffalo or about three touchdowns by the Bills’ offense. Allen comes into this week with the best completion rate (71.7) of his career. But he has been less of a factor running the ball (22/131/3). In his two road starts vs. the Jets and Commanders, Allen posted to quiet games (272/1 and 264/2). Last week, the Giants’ defense (allowing more than 30 points per game) held him to a dull showing (180/2) despite not posting a sack. Allen gained 513 combined yards in two games vs. the Patriots with five touchdowns in 2022.
The Patriots’ defense has the appearance of weakness after two embarrassing losses in Week 4 (DAL – 38 to 3) and Week 5 (NO – 34 to 0), but their offense gave up three defensive scores. Last week, New England held Las Vegas to one offensive touchdown (21 points and four field goals). The Patriots allow 3.4 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt, ranking fifth in quarterback defense (15.18 FPPG).
Allen relied heavily on Stefon Diggs (49/620/5 on 66 targets) over the first six weeks, and he has success in both games (7/92/1 and 7/104/1) vs. New England in 2022. The question comes from a secondary receiving option delivering a winning game in this matchup for the Bills. Gabe Davis (21/341/4) is on a career pace. However, he averaged only five targets. Allen looks poised to have a bounce-back game. But he does need to pick up the pace as a runner to reach 30+ fantasy points. The trick for his follow-through is New England scoring enough to force Buffalo to score more than 30 points to win the game.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,300)
Herbert doesn’t rate as well for me this week, but I can’t dismiss a chaser game inviting a high number of passes. His best game (416/3) came in Week 3 on the road against the Vikings. On the downside, he passed for fewer than 230 yards in three matchups (229/1, 167/1, and 227/2). Last year, Herbert played well in two games (335/3 and 297/2) vs. the Chiefs. The return of Austin Ekeler should help his scoring ability, but LA must use him more effectively in the passing game to move the chains.
Kansas City climbed to sixth in quarterback defense (16.15 FPPG), with no quarterback scoring more than 23.00 fantasy points. The Chiefs can struggle with the run (4.5 yards per rush), but they haven’t allowed a touchdown on the ground since Week 1. Their defense held offenses to two touchdowns or fewer in five consecutive games (14.7 points per game on the year).
The success of Keenan Allen (42/519/4) bodes well, but Quentin Johnson (6/44 on 13 targets) has been a nonfactor. Joshua Palmer (4/66/1, 3/77, and 4/60) can’t fill the shoes of Mike Williams, painting a lower ceiling of the Chargers’ passing game. Herbert should throw many passes, but I don’t see an impact outing based on the play of the Chiefs’ defense. Both offenses should move the ball, leading to long drives and a fast-moving clock.
Mid-Tier Option
Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,000)
Jackson has had a completion rate of 70.0% or more in five of his six starts, but he hasn’t passed for more than 240 yards in any game while delivering only five passing touchdowns. His best fantasy stats came in Week 3 (303 combined yards with two touchdowns) and Week 4 (213 combined yards with four scores), thanks to his value in the run game (14/101/2 and 9/27/2). The Ravens are averaging only 28.8 passes per game. Baltimore played four of their first six games on the road.
The Lions’ defense continues to play well vs. the run (3.3 yards per rush with three rushing touchdowns). Only one quarterback passed for more than 300 yards (Geno Smith – 328/2) while facing 38.7 passes per game. Detroit gives up 6.3 yards per pass attempt and ranks 16th in quarterback fantasy defense (18.93 FPPG).
The Lions lead the NFC North with a 5-1 record, and the football world is starting to take a shine to their chances of making a deep playoff run. This matchup could be higher scoring than most believe, with Jackson being a big part of their success. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews should be an important part of the Ravens’ production in this matchup. A Baltimore stack looks to be against the grain in Week 7.
Low-Value Options
Daniel Jones, NYG (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,100)
The Giants hope to have Jones back behind center in Week 7 after missing his matchup with the Bills with a neck issue. He had no value in his last three starts (142/0, 269/0, and 143/0) while facing the 49ers, Seahawks, and Dolphins (on the field for 68% of plays vs. Miami). His failure is tied to poor pass blocking in three games (7, 11, and 7 sacks) due to injuries on their offensive line. Jones has a high completion rate (70.3, 68.8, 79.4, and 70.0) in four matchups, inviting more upside with a longer passing window. Last year, he failed to make an impact in both games (271/1 and 195/0) against the Commanders.
Washington sits 30th defending quarterbacks (24.23 FPPG) while allowing more than 22.00 fantasy points in five straight matchups (31.00, 24.50, 27.35, 35.80, and 22.15 fantasy points). Quarterbacks passed for 300 yards in three games (DEN – 364/3, PHI – 353/2, and ATL – 325/2). Their defense has 19 sacks, with quarterbacks having success running the ball (36/206/1).
Based on his running ability and salary, Jones falls in a favorable range in Week 7, but he doesn’t have a signal of playing well unless the play of Tyrod Taylor vs. the Bills is a sign of better things for New York’s offense. His first hurdle is to get 100% cleared to play on Sunday. Jones needs 23.00 fantasy points to be in the quarterback mix in the DFS market this week.
Geno Smith, SEA (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,000)
Five games into 2023, Smith is well behind last season’s result in touchdowns (31 – on pace for 17). His completion rate (67.7) is in a competitive range with 2022 (69.8). In his three best starts (348/2, 292/1, and 343/0), he averaged 328 combined yards on 118 pass attempts. Last year, Smith failed to post a difference-maker game in his two matchups vs. the Cardinals (245/0 and 313/2).
Arizona ranks 28th vs. quarterbacks (23.20 FPPG) with two poor showings (NYG – 380/2 and CIN – 324/3). Their defense allows 8.0 yards per pass attempt, with three offenses gaining more than 200 yards from their wideouts (14/216/1, 31/302/3, and 12/204/1).
The daily fantasy market will be on Kenneth Walker in Week 7. But Smith could steal his upside with better success tossing touchdowns, especially in the red zone. The combination of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has led to 61 catches for 698 yards and four touchdowns after five games or fewer fantasy points (154.80) than Tyreek Hill (160.80). The Seahawks’ receiving talent screams upside.
Russell Wilson, DEN (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,200)
The Broncos’ defense struggled to get offenses off the field in five consecutive games, leading to a wide loss in time of possession in each contest (33:45, 33:21, 33:49, 34:36, and 35:49). In addition, they’ve allowed 200 points (23 touchdowns and 12 field goals over 64 possessions). Wilson is on pace to gain 4,122 combined yards with 34 touchdowns. His best output came in Week 2 (364/3). Over his last three starts, he passed for 514 yards with six touchdowns.
Green Bay has the ninth-best defense against quarterbacks (17.19 FPPG) while facing CHI, ATL, NO, DET, and LV. They’ve allowed only one touchdown in each contest to quarterbacks, with no team passing for more than 240 yards. The Packers allow 6.6 yards per pass attempt.
Wilson has a lot to prove, along with the Broncos’ offense and defense. He has receiving talent, and Denver should chase on the scoreboard. His drawing card is his salary, but he still needs Jerry Jeudy to up his game to reach a higher outcome in fantasy points.
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