Week 6 NFL Player Props
Week 5 is in the books and Week 6 is underway after the Kansas City Chiefs dispatched the Denver Broncos, 19-8, in primetime last night. Unfortunately, Week 5 was our first unprofitable week since this column started. We went 3-4 and are now 16-12 (+5.1 units) on the season.
Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 6 NFL player props and get back in the winning column.
Lamar Jackson OVER 222.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Jackson has only eclipsed this line in two of five outings this season but the Ravens are going to have to rely on the passing game to get back in the win column after a disheartening loss last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This week, Baltimore will play the Tennessee Titans across the pond Sunday morning in London.
Although the Titans were crushed by Zack Moss last week, they are typically very stingy against the run and much more exploitable in the secondary. Even after Moss produced 165 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5, the Titans’ defense still ranks second in yards per carry (3.6). Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken has schemed up some new concepts in 2023 and the Ravens seem to have a much better group of weapons at their star quarterback’s disposal. Zay Flowers certainly appears to be the real deal and Mark Andrews is still one of the best tight ends in the NFL.
Jackson is currently completing a career-best 69.9% of his passes through five games this season. However, Lamar hasn’t fully let it loose this season either. Considering the Titans’ stout defensive front, Jackson is going to have to air it out in Week 6 if the Ravens hope to come back home victorious. This is the week that Jackson gets it going. Smash the Over.
Gardner Minshew UNDER 230.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Minshew is nothing more than a game manager. He reminds me a lot of Alex Smith during his days with the Kansas City Chiefs. With Anthony Richardson sidelined yet again, Minshew will suit up for the Colts in a big Week 6 clash with the Jacksonville Jaguars, his former team. Many will tail the revenge narrative but Minshew won’t be asked to do much if the Colts get out to an early lead. Last week, Zack Moss was an absolute menace on the ground but the Colts have come out and said that Jonathan Taylor will see a lot more usage in his second game back from the PUP List.
In a tough AFC South matchup, look for the Colts to get back to their roots and attempt to run the ball down Jacksonville’s throat. Although Jacksonville has been much more exploitable in the passing game than in the running game, Indianapolis has one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league and they will lean on them heavily. It also doesn’t help that Jacksonville should have someone in that building who knows Minshew’s tendencies like the back of their hand.
Although Minshew’s over has been getting a ton of attention and the line has climbed a full 10 yards since it opened, I anticipate the Colts to play it somewhat safe in the passing game. Most of their big plays this season have come on the ground and I’m not expecting a ton of deep shots down the field against a very capable Jaguars secondary.
With Michael Pittman serving as the team’s best wideout, Minshew will likely look to get the ball out of his hands very quickly on slants, curls, and dump-offs to the running backs. While he may be efficient in this one, I do not anticipate a lot of yardage, especially with JT looking like he’ll be ready to see a good number of touches. Take the Under.
Tony Pollard OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss to the San Francisco 49ers in which they ran the ball a season-low 19 times. Dallas had attempted at least 30 rushes in each of their previous four contests but gamescript forced them to abandon the run. This week, Dallas will face a beatable Los Angeles Chargers rushing defense on Monday Night Football. The Chargers are allowing 147 yards per game to opposing running backs and the seventh-most fantasy points to the position.
In a favorable matchup in which the Cowboys are slight favorites, Pollard should get on track in Week 6. The electric running back has only accounted for 51.9% of the team’s carries this season. That said, we know that when he logs at least a dozen carries, he tends to produce. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, Pollard has surpassed 70 rushing yards in 11 of 12 games in which he’s carried the ball at least 12 times.
Los Angeles allows 1.92 yards per carry before contact, the highest number in the NFL. Although the front seven have limited opposing running backs to 4.16 yards per carry, they are much better off the edge than up the middle. In fact, the Chargers have alternated five different defensive linemen along the interior of the line through their first four games because they have not seen the run-stuffing production that they’d like. We all know how amazing Joey Bosa is but he’s more explosive in the pass rush than in the running game.
Given that the Cowboys desperately need to get back on track after being blown out by the Niners, I anticipate the Cowboys getting back to what they do best, which is running the football. And due to the expected game script and the favorable matchup, Pollard should see a ton of usage in garbage time as the Cowboys attempt to kill some clock. Look for Pollard to smash the Over in Week 6.
Raheem Mostert OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Now that De’Von Achane is on Injured Reserve, Miami’s backfield belongs to the veteran running back. Even if Jeff Wilson Jr. is activated this week, Mostert should be relied upon as the bell cow in Week 6. He has run with a motor all season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. This week, the Dolphins are the second-heaviest favorite (13.5 points) against a Carolina Panthers defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards to running backs (128 yards per game) and the second-most fantasy points.
Considering the expected game script, Mostert should see close to 25 touches as the Dolphins should torch the Panthers. In Mostert’s one matchup against the Panthers back when he was a member of the San Francisco 49ers, he logged 60 yards on just nine carries and managed to find the end zone.
In Week 6, Mostert is going to get a ton of usage and due to the threats outside between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, he should have plenty of space in between the tackles. Mostert could surpass this line in just the first half. I’d consider throwing multiple units on this one. Smash the Over.
One might also consider throwing some cash on a Mostert Anytime Touchdown (-200). In his first two games of the season, Mostert rushed for 158 yards and three touchdowns on 28 carries. Then his usage took a hit as Achane began to electrify the offense. However, Mostert is still tied for the lead with seven rushing touchdowns in just five games this season. He should be able to add to that total on Sunday with an increased snap count and more opportunities at the goal line.
Cooper Kupp OVER 86.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Kupp made his season debut last week and despite the emergence of Puka Nacua, there was still plenty to go around for the veteran wideout. Kupp hauled in eight of his 12 targets for 118 receiving yards against the Philadelphia Eagles.
In Week 6, Kupp gets another favorable matchup against an Arizona Cardinals secondary that just surrendered 34 points to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Despite Joe Burrow’s early-season struggles, JaMarr Chase shredded Arizona’s secondary to the tune of 15 receptions for 192 yards and a ridiculous three scores. Arizona is allowing over 200 receiving yards to opposing wideouts and the eighth-most fantasy points to the position group this season.
Kupp has always excelled at making plays after the catch and should thrive against a Cardinals defense that ranks as the NFL’s third-worst team when it comes to pass coverage. They are also third-worst in total defense. Nacua’s presence will benefit Kupp as the Cards won’t be able to double-team the star wideout nearly as much as they would have. Plus, Matthew Stafford has been playing very good football to begin the 2023 campaign.
Kupp already proved that he is 100% healed and that there are no lingering effects from his injury after eclipsing 100 yards in his first game back. Despite a high line, Kupp will continue to serve as the Rams’ top target and should demand a very large target share in what could be a high-scoring affair. The Over seems like a slam dunk, especially if the Cardinals can keep this game close despite James Conner’s trip to Injured Reserve.
D.J. Moore OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Moore is coming off a career day in which he tallied eight receptions for 230 yards and a whopping three trips to the end zone. He has surpassed 100 yards in three of his first five contests in a Bears uniform. It’s quite clear that Justin Fields has been force-feeding the best receiver he’s ever had in his arsenal. Moore has accumulated 47% of Chicago’s receiving yards this season. In his last two contests, Moore has produced 19 receptions for 361 yards and four touchdowns.
This week, the Bears get a favorable matchup against a Vikings secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers and the second-most fantasy points. If the Bears want to build on their impressive Week 5 40-20 victory over the Washington Commanders, Fields is going to have to get the ball to the team’s best playmaker, especially with Khalil Herbert sidelined.
Moore has always shown flashes of brilliance no matter who his signal caller has been in the past but he has never been able to show consistency. This year, he’s been a staple of reliability as he has either scored a touchdown or eclipsed 100 receiving yards in every matchup since Week 1. With perhaps the most juicy matchup to date on the horizon this Sunday, bettors should have no problem taking the Over.
T.J. Hockenson OVER 5.5 Receptions (-115)
With Justin Jefferson hitting Injured Reserve, Hockenson is another player who should benefit from a teammate’s injury. Hock was already averaging six catches on eight targets per game. Without JJ, Kirk Cousins should be locked and loaded onto his tight end against a Chicago Bears defense that has allowed a league-worst 85% catch rate to opposing tight ends. They are allowing just under seven receptions per game to the position group this season.
Hockenson has already been a bit of a ball hog this season, eclipsing this line in his first three outings to begin the 2023 campaign. In week 4, the veteran struggled (two receptions for 24 yards) in a strange game against the Panthers. Last week, he managed to get back on track with five catches for 51 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs. However, without Jefferson in the mix and Jordan Addison still developing his rapport with Captain Kirk, Hockenson should demand a massive target share against the Bears this weekend. With the Bears allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, Hockenson should have no problem getting back to his season average of six receptions.
The Bears tend to emphasize trying to prevent teams from going over the top. They force opponents to take the short to intermediate pass underneath, which we saw last week as Logan Thomas led Washington with a team-high nine receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown. In Week 3, Travis Kelce produced a team-high 69 yards against Chicago back in Week 3, Luke Musgrave produced 50 yards in the season opener, and even Cade Otton tallied 41 of his 89 yards this year back in Week 2 against this same Bears secondary. Hockenson is one of the best tight ends in the league and will be able to take advantage of the zone defense that the Bears often rely on.
