Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report
Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat to post an exceptional day (32/121/3 with two catches for 20 yards). There was a tight battle between Josh Jacobs (27.90), Kyren Williams (27.70), and De’Von Achane (27.00) for the bronze medal for the week. Four other backs scored between 21.00 and 25.00 fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by 13 running backs with 10.00 to 20.00 fantasy points.
The Dolphins have two of the top four scoring backs, with both players (Raheem Mostert – 22.60 and De’Von Achane – 20.05) averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here’s a look at the top five running backs after Week 4:
- Christian McCaffrey (120.00)
- Raheem Mostert (90.40)
- Kyren Williams (81.60)
- De’Von Achane (80.20 – 97.3% of his scoring came in his last two games).
- Kenneth Walker (73.60)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 5 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,400/FD – $10,700)
I bumped up McCaffrey’s projections late last week after Elijah Mitchell was trending toward a scratch on Sunday. The added touches cleared the hurdle for a potential second score and more production in yards and catches. He finished with an impact day, one needed to win in the DFS market. His success raised his season average to 32.25 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. The 49ers had him on the field for 85% of their plays, leading to a season-high in touches (27 – averaging 24.5 chances).
Dallas leads the NFL in fantasy running back defense (12.90 FPPG). Despite their success, the Cowboys allow 4.6 yards per rush (70/306/2 to running backs). They’ve faced four subpar offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE) while playing from the lead in three matchups. Backs only have 15 catches for 65 yards on 21 targets. In 2022, Dallas had the second-best defense (18.08 FPPG) vs. running backs, with no team scoring more than 30.50 fantasy points in PPR leagues.
Mitchell didn’t practice this week, suggesting McCaffrey will be on the field for most snaps again in Week 5. He is an electric back who can score fantasy points in all facets of the game. His top-shelf salary and matchup invite lower ownership, along with the challenges of filling the backend of the DFS roster with enough upside players.
Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,200)
The wave is starting to crest for Robinson. The Falcons gave him 78.4% of their snaps over the past two games and 33 of 50 running back touches. He is on pace for 1,921 combined yards with 81 catches (273.10 fantasy points). His missing link is impact scoring (one touchdown, which starts with better quarterback play. Robinson enters Week 5 ranking sixth in running back scoring (70.20 fantasy points).
Houston had the worst defense in 2022 against running backs (31.06 FPPG), with four teams scoring more than 40.00 fantasy points. Over four games this season, they’ve shown weakness vs. the run (111/572/4 – 5.2 yards per rush ~ running backs only) while allowing 21 catches for 130 yards on 25 targets. Offenses have run the ball 31.5 times against them, with most of the damage coming over the first two games (34/188/1 and 28/159/3).
So far this season, Robinson only has one carry inside the five-yard line, compared to three by Tyler Allgeier (all in the first week). His salary commands 30+ fantasy points, requiring more than 150 combined yards with one score and at least five catches. His matchup screams upside. But he has yet to score more than 21.20 fantasy points in a game. In my thoughts, I’m giddy about his explosive outcome.
Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,600)
Heading into last week, I was bullish on Jacobs finding his stride vs. the Chargers. The downgrade to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback for the Raiders led to me lowering the projections on all players on Sunday. Las Vegas had him on the field for 70% of their plays (season-low). But he still posted a winning game (17/58/1 with eight catches for 81 yards) in the DFS market. Over the first four weeks, Jacobs averaged 20 touches while averaging only 2.7 yards per rush.
Green Bay slipped to 28th in running back defense (118/513/4 with 26 catches for 180 yards on 33 targets). Their defense had trouble in Week 4 vs. the Lions’ running backs (40/161/3 with six catches for 31 yards). In Week 1, back had 11 catches for 80 yards on 16 targets. The Packers finished 24th in running back defense (24.45 FPPG).
In their offense, the Raiders feature two players (Jacobs and Davante Adams). Volume creates yards, and a return of Jimmy Garoppolo should improve his chance at scoring. Last year, Jacobs scored 30.00 fantasy points or more from Week 4 to Week 6 (three games). Home cooking points to a winning day in this matchup.
Mid-Tier Options
Joe Mixon, CIN (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,000)
Over the first four games, Mixon averaged 79 yards with two catches while scoring one touchdown. His lack of ceiling is more of a team issue than his play. Cincinnati has yet to gain more than 350 yards of offense in any matchup (378 yards per game in 2022 – 252 this year). Mixon was on the field for 73.9% of the Bengals this season.
After the Christian McCaffrey outcome in Week 4, the Cardinals’ defense fell to 30th vs. running backs (103/450/34 with 24 catches for 170 yards and four touchdowns on 27 targets). Arizona allowed a receiving touchdown each week this season to a running back.
Last season, the Bengals’ running backs had 103 catches for 796 yards and seven touchdowns (tie for 2nd) on 132 targets (tie for 3rd). Mixon doesn’t have much competition for touches. However, he needs Cincinnati to play from the lead to reach a winning number in the DFS market. His salary makes sense, and I could see him or Ja’Marr Chase on the winning DFS ticket in Week 5.
Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,100)
The bulk of the running back offense will flow through Kamara for the rest of the season. New Orleans had him on the field for 75% in Week 4, leading to a combined 84 yards with an impressive 13 catches (tied for 9th in the league in one start). The Saints gave him 25 touches against Tampa.
New England is about league average against running backs (89/366/4 with 21 catches for 115 yards on 23 targets). The Patriots faced the Eagles, Dolphins, Jets, and Cowboys over the first four weeks. Runners gain 3.8 yards per carry.
Kamara fits the box at this price based on opportunity. But New Orleans only had five touchdowns (one on a punt return) over the first four weeks. They’re gaining only 6.1 yards per pass attempt with only two passing touchdowns. Any success by Kamara starts with better quarterback play. On the positive side, the Patriots lost LB Matthew Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez to injuries last week.
David Montgomery, DET (DK – $6,600/FD – $8,500)
FanDuel gave Montgomery the fifth-highest salary this week compared to 11th at DraftKings after his impact game (141 combined yards with three touchdowns and two catches). The Lions had him on the field for 71% of their plays (79% in Week 1) while giving him 34 touches. Over the first game and a half, Detroit gave him 37 rushes for 141 yards and two scores with one catch for seven yards.
The Panthers struggled in two of their four matchups against running backs (44.70 and 37.90 fantasy points), ranking them 29th in fantasy points allowed (29.70). Carolina allowed 130 rushing yards in each matchup this year, with backs scoring seven touchdowns with 17 catches for 116 yards.
Montgomery seems attractive, at least at DraftKings. I expect him to be popular in Week 5. Despite the appearance of success, he is gaining only 3.8 yards per rush on 69 carries, compared to 4.6 by Jahmyr Gibbs (39/179). I expect Montgomery to be active at the goal line with low opportunity in the passing game. But the hot hand favoring Gibbs will catch him a couple of times this year. I’m torn.
Raheem Mostert, MIA (DK – $6,200/FD – $8,000)
The Dolphins’ backs have been sensational over the first four games. They lead the NFL in rushing yards (693), rushing touchdowns (10), catches (27), and receiving yards (257) while adding one catch for a score. Mostert delivered winning days in fantasy points in two games (25.70 and 45.20), but Miami failed to get him going vs. the Bills (45 combined yards with three catches on 10 touches). Over the past two weeks, the Dolphins had him on the field for 47.1% of their plays, compared to 50% by De’Von Achane.
The Giants sit 23rd in running back defense (107/463/5 with 13 catches for 64 yards on 18 targets). They’ve allowed at least 121 yards on the ground in each matchup, with Dallas and Arizona scoring two touchdowns from their running backs.
The emergence of Achane does cloud the opportunity for Mostert, and his touches (12, 19, 20, and 12) have been inconsistent from week to week. Over the first four weeks, New York allowed 122 points and 14 touchdowns over 41 possessions, pointing to a great day for Miami’s rising offense. Mostert will get chances, and I expect a touchdown. More of a coin flip.
De’Von Achane, MIA (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,500)
Based on his last two games (353 combined yards with six touchdowns and seven catches on 33 touches), Achane averaged 6.4 fantasy points per $1,000 invested at DraftKings. His success has been off the chart, thanks to gaining 40 yards or more on three carries. He gained 168 of his 309 rushing yards on four carries (6.1 yards on his other 23 carries).
Miami will no doubt get him involved again in Week 5, and his matchup points to another big game. His salary, scoring, and big plays ability scream “play me” in the DFS market. Do I hear a three-game winning streak?
Low-Value Options
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (DK – $5,900/FD – $5,900) (Update: Now OUT)
I wrote this earlier in the Week 4 recaps: “Over the past two games, De’Von Achane (27/309/4 with eight catches for 53 yards and two scores) delivered the production that Jahmyr Gibbs’ owners hoped for. Gibbs is on pace for 1,085 yards with 60 catches, ranking him 28th at running back in PPR formats. As much as the sky appears to be falling, he is a couple of explosive showings away from reaching his expected heights. Game flow hasn’t favored him, and the Lions haven’t opened many holes with him on the field.”
In the season-long games, Gibbs could be benched in many leagues due to managers looking for more touches or upside. His opportunity (13.3 touches per game) is disappointing, especially last week when the Lions could have easily given him some mop-up carries when playing from the lead, but his usage is somewhat in line with my preseason projections (161/807/7 with 70/640/5 – 13.6 touches per game).
Game flow will be the key to his week-to-week value, and a chaser game is where he’ll potentially have the most value. At the same time. Gibbs could hit on a long run at any time. I’m wearing blinders, and my jockey (Mr. Sharp) wants to jump to the slow-footed pony. My bet is on the longer odds and higher payoff when his ticket comes in. I’m riding him in all formats in the season-long matchups, as I don’t want to miss his impact game when it happens. Ultimately, this horse only needs daylight to bring home some winning plays.
Isiah Pacheco, KC (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,600)
An early 48-yard touchdown set up Pacheco’s best game (158 combined yards and three catches on 23 touches) of his young career. Kansas City had him on the field for 60% of their plays, compared to 46.4% over the first three weeks. His touches (12, 13, 17, and 23) have improved in each matchup.
Minnesota struggled in Week 2 (PHI – 33.50 fantasy points) vs. running backs, but they kept him in check in their other three contests (12.10, 3.40, and 13.50). On the year, they allow 3.5 yards per rush with minimal damage in catches (14) and receiving yards (60).
Playing from the lead should be the norm for Kansas City while scoring many points. This game projects to be high-scoring, giving Pacheco an increased chance at scoring a touchdown. The Chiefs have been willing to give him opportunities in the passing game, helping his floor.
Breece Hall, NYJ (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,500)
New York had Breece Hall on the field for 44% of their plays in Week 4. He gained 69 yards on his nine touches with three catches. Despite only touching the ball 42 times this year, Hall is on pace to gain 1,071 combined yards. The Jets stated this week that he won’t be on a snap count going forward, but he’ll still compete with Dalvin Cook for carries and targets.
Denver has the worst defense in the league (150 points allowed and 478.5 yards per game). Quarterbacks gain 9.5 yards per pass attempt, and rushers pick up 5.6 yards per carry. Running backs have nine touchdowns (six allowed to the Dolphins in Week 3). Offenses have scored 19 touchdowns on their 42 possessions against the Broncos.
All signs point to a successful and active game by Hall, except for the questionable right arm of Zach Wilson. He’s far from a lock, but his salary is low enough for him to pay off with a three-down opportunity and a touchdown.
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