Week 5 NFL Player Props
Week 4 was an interesting one from a prop betting perspective. After starting the season 10-4, last week was the first time this season that we didn’t hit over 50% of our prop bets. Fortunately, since we tripled up on the Justin Fields over, our 3-4 Week 4 record doesn’t tell the full story; We actually profited cash for a third consecutive week. Just about a quarter of the way through the regular season, we are now 13-8 (+6.9 units).
After a surprising first few weeks to the season where studs weren’t performing and there were some unfamiliar names leading certain position groups, things are finally beginning to shake out as one would expect. Justin Herbert has been the top quarterback, Christian McCaffrey has been the top running back, Justin Jefferson has been the top wideout, and T.J. Hockenson has been the top tight end (Travis Kelce missed the season opener but is averaging more points per game than Hock). The cream always rises to the top.
Fantasy football owners definitely have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 5 NFL Player Props and continue our trend of profitable NFL weekends.
Josh Allen OVER 258.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After a disappointing season-opening performance against the New York Jets in which Allen turned the ball over four times in an upset loss, Buffalo’s signal-caller has turned it around and has been the QB1 over the last three weeks. Over that span, Allen has racked up 812 passing yards (270.7 per game) while going 72-for-94 (76.6% completion percentage) and throwing eight touchdowns and one interception.
He has risen to the top of the MVP race in large part due to his dominant performance in the Bills’ Week 4 thrashing of the Miami Dolphins in which he tallied 320 passing yards and four touchdowns, while also running one into the end zone. Allen has eclipsed this line in two of his previous three outings and faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense.
Also, the Bills are averaging 6.1 yards per play this season, which bodes well for Allen in this London-based contest. Allen doesn’t have a particularly good history against the Jaguars. But one of his previous two games came against them back in 2018 when they had an elite defense. Back in 2021, he surpassed this line against Jacksonville. Look for Allen to continue his MVP campaign with a big Sunday morning. Smash the Over.
Matthew Stafford OVER 277.5 Passing Yards (+100)
Stafford has hit the over in each of his first four games of the season. Also, he has eclipsed this line in three of his four outings. Through four games, Stafford has accumulated 1,229 yards through the air, good for 307.3 yards per game. And that has been without Cooper Kupp on the field. Puka Nacua has been a revelation but with Kupp aiming to get back on the field in Week 5, there’s no reason Stafford shouldn’t be able to continue to put up these numbers. Especially with the way Kyren Williams has performed in the backfield.
Although the Rams have a difficult matchup looming with the defending NFC champions, the Eagles have yet to put it all together on defense at this point. Plus, game flow should work in Stafford’s favor as the Rams are going to need to air it out a lot to keep pace with a team that just dropped 37 points on the Commanders last week.
However, the Eagles are one of eight teams that have yielded over 1,000 passing yards through four games and they are currently allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Let’s take a look at how the four quarterbacks who have played Philly fared.
|
Player |
Comp / Att | Line | Yards | Touchdowns |
| Mac Jones (NE) | 35/54 | 223.5 | 316 | 3 |
| Kirk Cousins (MIN) | 31/44 | 268.5 | 364 | 4 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 15/25 | 229.5 | 146 | 1 |
| Sam Howell (WAS) | 29/41 | 212.5 | 290 | 1 |
The Eagles are undefeated and are road favorites heading into Week 5. If Philadelphia takes an early lead as they have in every single game so far this season, Stafford is going to have to drop back a ton. Three of the four quarterbacks who faced the Eagles this season have attempted 40+ passes and have compiled 290+ yards. And that includes Sam Howell and Mac Jones!
Stafford is a better quarterback and with Kupp looking poised to make his 2023 debut, I’m anticipating a big day for Stafford and the Rams’ passing attack. Stafford has yet to face the Eagles as a member of the Rams. But back when he was with the Lions, he did surpass 300 passing yards in two of his five matchups against them. One of those contests included five passing touchdowns.
Stafford is a veteran who isn’t afraid of Philly’s strong pass rush and his quick release will help the Rams move the chains. Although the line is a little higher than I would have liked, at even odds, this seems like a great wager.
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Robinson has been a revelation ever since entering the league. He took the league by storm after recovering from a gunshot wound his rookie season and has started the 2023 campaign on fire. In fact, the second-year back just has a streak of 10 consecutive outings with at least 50 rushing yards snapped last week in Washington’s 37-34 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
That said, he salvaged his day with a trip to the end zone. Despite losing some touches to Antonio Gibson, Robinson is averaging 65.3 rushing yards and one touchdown per game on the young season. With Sam Howell under center, Robinson is Washington’s most trusted skill player on the offensive side of the ball.
This week, Robinson gets an incredibly juicy matchup on Thursday Night Football against a Chicago Bears defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The lines have been all over the place for this matchup. It opened at Washington -4.5, then went down to -3, and now it’s ballooned to -6.
Clearly, the smart money thinks that Washington is going to have no problem dispatching the 0-4 Bears. This also bodes well for Robinson as he has averaged 18.5 carries in the two games the Commanders have won compared to 12 attempts per game in their two losses. Let’s take a look at how running backs have fared against the winless Bears in 2023.
|
Player |
Attempts | Rush Yds | Y / C | Rec | Rec Yds | TDs |
| Aaron Jones (GB) | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 2 | 86 | 2 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
*** In Week 3, Clyde Edwards-Helaire also tallied 55 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground in Kansas City’s 41-10 blowout victory over the Bears.
Even with Javonte Williams being ruled out after just two rushes in Week 4 and Chicago up 28-7 heading into the fourth quarter, undrafted free agent Jaleel McLaughlin was able to light up the Bears’ defense, helping to propel the Broncos to a 31-28 comeback victory.
Overall, it’s clear that the Bears struggle against opposing running backs and they haven’t even played against an elite one yet. Pacheco and White are solid but Aaron Jones is no longer in his prime and McLaughlin is an unknown. Robinson just might be the most talented back they’ve faced to date.
Robinson will hit the OVER and if you want to be bold, you can parlay that with an Anytime Touchdown at -115.
Alvin Kamara OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Kamara may have only finished with 33 receiving yards last week but he was clearly the recipient of Derek Carr’s injury limitation. Carr checked the ball down a ridiculous amount as Kamara caught 13 of 14 targets in New Orleans’ 26-9 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This week, Kamara and the Saints get another tough matchup against a New England Patriots defense that prides itself in taking away the opposing team’s top pass-catching threat. That said, New England has allowed 21 receptions for 111 receiving yards to opposing running backs through four games this season. The corners will likely look to prevent Chris Olave and Michael Thomas from beating them, leaving Kamara space on short and intermediate routes.
Kamara has a career average of five catches for 42.5 receiving yards per game. While I wouldn’t anticipate another double-digit reception game from the veteran back, I do expect him to surpass this line fairly easily. The Patriots will be without Matthew Judon and top cornerback Christian Gonzalez. With Gonzalez out, Olave and Thomas should have more success than most wideouts do against the Patriots which in turn will make the screen-pass game more effective than it was last week.
Also, don’t forget that last week was Kamara’s first game of the season. Although he didn’t appear to have much rust to shake off, his efficiency should increase in Week 5. With Carr still dealing with a shoulder injury, Kamara should be the dump-off king yet again and I’m anticipating closer to 50 receiving yards than 25. Take the Over.
K.J. Osborn UNDER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Osborn has seen his numbers decrease each week as the season has progressed. Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson remain Kirk Cousins’ go-to options and Jordan Addison looks poised to surpass Osbon on the depth chart despite a goose egg in Week 4. Osborn caught three of six targets in each of his first two games, finishing with 31 yards in Week 1 and 34 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. However, over the last two weeks, the speedy wideout has only caught two of the five targets he’s seen for 52 yards and an additional touchdown.
Osborn has fallen short of this line in three of his four games this season and the only time he topped it was in Week 3 for 36 yards. He’s coming off his worst performance of the season in which he corralled one of two targets for a mere 16 yards.
Also, the Vikings have a tough matchup looming against the defending Super Bowl champs. The offense will have to throw the ball a lot to keep pace but Osborn is the fourth option in the passing game and the Kansas City Chiefs defense has been playing at an elite level, ranking 8th in the NFL with only 190.5 passing yards allowed per game. Also, Kansas City is only allowing 133.5 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts. So if you think Jefferson is going to post another 100-yard performance, that leaves a very slim path for Osborn to hit his prop line.
While Osborn is a solid target in the red zone, he’s become an afterthought for Kirk Cousins in between the 20’s. I expect Kevin O’Connell to try to get Jordan Addison more involved after he didn’t catch a single pass last week, though he did draw a long pass interference call. Addison was off to a good start this year, scoring touchdowns in each of his first two outings. The Vikings will make a concerted effort to target Addison on some deep balls after he and Captain Kirk seemed to develop great chemistry over the first couple games.
Minnesota will have to air it out to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes but I don’t anticipate Osborn being heavily involved. I’m comfortable with the Under and you should be too.
Tyreek Hill OVER 88.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Hill is probably the second-best wideout in the NFL trailing the electric Justin Jefferson. Hill is 2-2 on his over/under receiving props this season. But in the two games that he eclipsed the line, he went nuclear.
In Week 1 against the Chargers, Hill hauled in 11 of 15 targets for 215 yards and two touchdowns. And in Miami’s only home game in Week 3 against the Denver Broncos, Hill produced nine catches for 157 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. He could have done more but the starters were benched in the fourth quarter as Miami was on its way to a 70-point outing. I
It’s also encouraging to see that Hill is seeing far more targets than his teammate and fellow superstar Jaylen Waddle. Although Waddle missed a game, Hill still leads him in targets, 40-16. And despite the emergence of the running game with Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert, this offense still runs through Tyreek Hill.
Fast forward to Week 5 and the Dolphins are set to play their second home game of the season against a beatable Giants defense. As long as the offensive line holds up for Tua Tagovailoa, Hill should have no problem beating the Giants’ cornerbacks. Adoree Jackson and rookies Tre Hawkins III and Deonte Banks simply don’t have the speed to keep up with one of the fastest players in the NFL.
The only way that Hill doesn’t surpass this line is if this game gets out of hand. Yet despite the 11-point spread, I don’t foresee that happening with Saquon Barkley on the mend. I think the Giants will keep this game somewhat respectable. But Hill will top 100 yards for the third time this season.
Zach Ertz OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The tight end position has been a total mess this season. However, Ertz has surprisingly put up solid numbers even with Joshua Dobbs under center. Ertz has produced 20 receptions on 30 targets for 136 scoreless yards through four games. Ertz has caught at least six balls in three of four contests to begin the 2023 campaign.
Week 3 was a dud in which he caught his two targets for a meager six yards against the Cowboys. However, part of the problem was that Ertz was blocking on 47.2% of his snaps in that game. Last week against the Niners, Ertz played a season-high 76.2% (up from 70.3% on the season) of the offensive snaps. And he demanded 10 targets.
This week, Ertz and the Cardinals offense get a Cincinnati defense that is allowing 55 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends and the sixth-most fantasy points. The Bengals have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this season, which means Dobbs will definitely be looking Ertz’s way in the red zone. If Ertz catches another six passes as he has done in 75% of games this season, he should have no problem clearing this line. Take the Over.
Bonus TNF Same Game Parlay (+1200)
Brian Robinson 70+ Rushing Yards (+105)
Justin Fields 50+ Rushing Yards (-105)
Brian Robinson Anytime TD Scorer (-110)
Chicago Bears +7.5 (-154)
Throw a quarter of a unit on this parlay. Robinson has topped 70 rushing yards twice this season and is averaging a touchdown per game. Tonight he gets perhaps the worst run defense in the entire NFL outside of the Denver Broncos. We already talked about Robinson’s usage rate in Washington wins and that trend should continue tonight.
Meanwhile, the Bears need to figure out how to get Fields going in the run game. Tonight is the night that happens. Although he broke out of his slump last week, that was surprisingly mostly from throwing out of the pocket. Look for him to scramble more and to get to the outside to avoid Washington’s mean defensive front.
If the Bears can keep this game close, this parlay could make you a boatload of cash! I’m expecting a low-scoring game in which the Bears manage to lose by a single possession.
