Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5

Last week’s game offered a lot for fantasy football fans. And the Lions/Packers game mostly lived up to the hype. That won’t necessarily be the case in Week 4. The winless Chicago Bears travel to the nation’s capital to face the 2-2 Washington Commanders. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5 breaks down this week’s NFC slugfest.

The Bears finally showed some life last week. However, a defensive collapse in the second half led to another loss for Matt Eberflus’s club. Chicago is now one of only two winless clubs in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Ron Rivera’s Washington squad dropped their second consecutive game after opening the season 2-0. However, the Commanders had a good showing, losing 34-31 in Philadelphia.

This is a pivotal game for both teams. Eberflus is feeling the pressure to get a win. Also, the Commanders need to take advantage of an easy schedule to break a two-game losing streak and remain in playoff contention.

Washington opened as 4.5-point favorites before some early action dropped that to -3.5. The over/under rose to 44.5.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Chicago Bears	21	21	13	16	22
Washington Commanders	20	20	17	22	17

The numbers show these teams are quite evenly matched. Their offenses rank back-to-back overall and are separated by just 5o yards. However, Washington has scored 20-plus points in three of four games and twice gone over 30.

Meanwhile, Chicago had three lackluster showings before finally showing some life against a hapless Denver defense on Sunday. For the Bears to have a shot, they’ll need some of Justin Fields’s Week 4 magic to carry over.

And it very well could. Both teams are bottom-10 in terms of allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks. That invites some solid fantasy, daily, and DFS scoring potential.

Chicago Offense

Justin Fields had the best passing day of his career last week. Fields posted a 132.7 QB Rating and threw for a career-high 335 yards and four TDs. Fields’s accuracy has improved in 2023 but his rushing production has plummeted. After averaging 76 rushing yards per game last year, Fields is down to 33.5 in 2023.

This week’s matchup appears fine for the passing game. Washington has surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing passers. Also, that includes 131 yards on the ground- third-most through four games.

After hearing that Roschon Johnson would get an opportunity to be Chicago’s RB1, Khalil Herbert played a season-high 77.8% of snaps last week. Also, he tripled his previous season-high in rushing with 103 yards. It’s hard to trust Eberflus to do the “right” thing. However, Herbert should be viewed as the best bet to lead the Bears in touches and scoring.

Roschon Johnson was a popular breakout candidate last week. Unfortunately, he was usurped by Herbert and played just 16 snaps. Johnson still leads the backfield in fantasy points per snap and can factor in as a receiver. View Johnson as a risky flex play or bye-week replacement.

Washington has also allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wideouts. A wide receiver has surpassed 100 receiving yards in three straight versus the Commanders. That’s good news for D.J. Moore, who has the speed and playmaking to make that four straight.

Darnell Mooney has played 67% of Chicago’s snaps but only has a 10.3% target share. Also, Mooney has run 76% (5-10, 176)of his routes from the slot. That gives him a solid against Washington’s sizable slot corner Benjamin St-Juste. Mooney is in play as a cheap DFS option and has WR3/flex potential.

With Chase Claypool deactivated, Equanimeous St. Brown will act as Chicago’s WR3. St. Brown is nothing more than a DFS dart throw who has one target all season.

TE Cole Kmet was the biggest benefactor of Justin Fields’s breakout. Kmet was the overall TE1 last week. However, he won’t come anywhere close to repeating those numbers on Thursday. Washington boasts the NFL’s No. 1 defense against tight ends through four games. No tight end has topped 25 yards in any game, so downgrade Kmet to TE2 range in this one.

Washington Offense

Sam Howell has been a solid fantasy signal caller in his five starts, with the exception of bottoming out against Buffalo in Week 3. Last week, Howell, finished as the QB12 at Philadelphia. The Bears are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. This includes the second-most touchdowns allowed at 10.

Chicago has allowed three TD strikes in three of their four games. Meanwhile, Howell has thrown multiple scores only once in his career. This is a good matchup for Howell, who should be viewed as a solid QB2 with an outside shot at another QB1 finish.

In favorable game script situations, Brian Robinson has proven to be a solid fantasy asset. This game offers just that, as the Bears struggle to maintain drives. Also, Chicago has ceded the second-most fantasy points to enemy running backs. View Robinson as a must-start this week, with top-15 upside.

The same angle impacts Antonio Gibson. Gibson logged a 61% snaps share in Washington’s Week 3 dismantling. However, he’s been under 50% in the other three contests. Expect a healthy dose of Robinson in this game and Gibson could be relatively limited.

All three Washington wideouts produced last week and are in play in Week 5.

Terry McLaurin should lead the trio in targets and production. McLaurin is Washington’s WR1 and the Bears have struggled to corrall top wideouts all season. Four of the five touchdowns to wide receivers that the Bears have allowed have come from No. 1 receivers. View McLaurin as a solid WR2 with top-20 potential.

Jahan Dotson was cleared and will be active in this game. Half of Dotson’s routes have come inside, so he’ll see plenty of CB Greg Stroman. Chris Godwin, Rashee Rice, and Jerry Jeudy have all had decent fantasy days against Stroman. Dotson is in a position to post top-35 numbers.

That same coverage advantage is a factor for Curtis Samuel, who has a 66% slot rate. Samuel also is utilized on jet sweeps. Overlooked seemingly every week, Samuel is a good DFS value with a high floor. He’s scored at least 6.2 fantasy points in every game this season.

After missing Week 3, Logan Thomas returned last week to play 80% of Washington’s snaps. The Bears struggled against tight ends until shutting down Denver’s rag-tag group last week. I wouldn’t read too much into that “success” story. Thomas is an overlooked value to target as a DFS value.

Prediction & Best Bet

I wasn’t prepared for the Lions to score three first-half touchdowns last week. Green Bay’s second-half rebound tanked my under 46.5 pick, dropping my BEST BETS record to 3-1.

Several times on the FullTime Fantasy Podcast I’ve talked about the difficulties that analysts have in trusting our own eyes against the data that we uncover. To my eyes, this winless Bears team should be touchdown underdogs traveling on short rest. But what do the analytics say?

In addition to being 0-4, the Bears are 0-3-1 against the spread. They’re 0-2 ATS on the road. This losing streak doesn’t just date back to September. Chicago lost 13 of their last 14 games in 2022, including 10 straight to close the campaign. Eberflus’s team is riding a 14-game losing streak that included a 12-7 loss to Washington last October.

The Bears have struggled against this Washington team. Overall, Chicago has dropped eight of their last nine versus the Commanders. Plus, they’ve gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven.

On a positive note, the Bears have been so bad that teams run up the score, so the OVER hits more often than the UNDER.

Meanwhile, Washington hasn’t played all that well, covering just one of their last five home spreads. The Commanders have only covered three of their last nine games dating back to last December.

This game opened at -4.5 but was quickly bet down to -3.5 for Washington.

I liked the signs of life we saw out of the Bears last week, but betting on a team that hasn’t won since last October to cover after an emotional second-half collapse seems like a bad idea. I might tease it down to 3, but I like the Commanders.

Best Bet: Washington -3.5

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