Week 4 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
Keenan Allen (45.95) and Davante Adams (42.20) posted the two impact fantasy point games at wide receiver in Week 3. Adam Thielen (31.50) built on his success in Week 2 (20.40), while Tyreek Hill (9/157/1) and Justin Jefferson (7/149/1) closed out the five scoring in PPR leagues. Seven other wideouts scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here’s a look at the top five wide receivers after the three games:
- Keenan Allen (91.25)
- Tyreek Hill (90.20)
- Justin Jefferson (77.80)
- Davante Adams (75.20)
- Mike Evans (64.70)
There have been eight wide receiver games with at least 30.00 fantasy points.
Here is the Week 4 DFS: Wide Receiver Report. Also, check out this week’s QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $9,600/FD – $9,400)
The most consistent elite wide receiver after three weeks has been Jefferson (9/150, 11/159, and 7/149/1), highlighted by his 38 targets (12, 13, and 13). The Vikings have had him on the field for 97.5% of their 204 plays. He’s gained over 100 yards in 13 of his last 21 starts while having a floor of seven catches in 14 of those games.
The Panthers have the fourth-best defense against wide receivers (31/396/1 on 49 targets). DK Metcalf (6/112) is the only wideout to gain over 100 yards. In Week 1, Carolina faced a Falcons offense that attempted only 18 passes. That led to only three catches for 31 yards by their wide receivers. Last year, the Panthers finished 28th defending wide receivers.
Jefferson is the most explosive ticket on the board each week. Especially if he adds impact touchdowns to his electric production. In addition, the Vikings have averaged 46 passes in 2023. It’s all about finding enough value to fit Jefferson in your DFS lineup.
Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,600)
Over his three starts in 2023, Hill has two difference-maker showings (11/215/2 and 9/157/1) while scoring in each matchup. Last year, he struggled to get open in both games (2/33 and 7/69) against the Bills, one without Tua Tagovailoa behind center. In 2021, Hill excelled in the postseason (11/150/1) with Kansas City at home vs. Buffalo.
The Bills rank third in wide receiver defense (24/303/2 on 36 targets), allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt with 12 sacks (nine in Week 3). Buffalo gave up only three touchdowns over the first three games (@NYJ, LA, and @WAS). In 2022, the Bills were about league average against wideouts (32.38 FPPG).
This matchup for Miami isn’t ideal for Hill based on the passing production by Tagovailoa’s recent passing stats (205/0, 186/1, and 234/2) vs. the Bills. This Dolphins’ offense is more rounded in 2023, so there could be a very different outcome in Week 4. The over/under (54) is the highest on Sunday.
Second-Tier Options
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,200)
Chase played well in Week 3 (12/141 on 15 targets), helped by Joe Burrow playing and attempting 49 passes. He is still looking for his first touchdown while ranking 25th in wide receiver scoring (43.30) in PPR formats. Last year, Chase gained more than 100 yards in only four contests. He has 22 career touchdowns over 29 starts. His missing link remains his big play ability (only one catch of 20 yards or more), an area he excelled in his rookie season (22 receptions gained at least 20 yards, eight of which reached the 40-yard mark).
The Titans have the second-worst defense vs. wide receivers (57/690/4 on 76 targets), with each set of wideouts gaining at least 200 yards (NO – 18/262/1, 20/214/2, and CLE – 19/214/1). A wide receiver had an elite game (Chris Olave – 8/112, Keenan Allen – 8/111/2, and Amari Cooper – 7/116/1) in receiving yards against Tennessee each week.
Chase sits on top of my wide receiver rankings in Week 4, thanks to his upside matchup. The Titans must play much better offensively in this matchup to force Cincinnati to the air. Tennessee plays well vs. the run, suggesting another high-volume week of passes for Burrow.
Davante Adams, LV (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,100)
The Steelers’ defense had no answer for Adams in Week 3 (13/172/2 on 20 targets), making you wonder what they focused on in their game plays vs. the Raiders. Las Vegas has barely thrown the ball to their tight ends (4/42 on five targets) and their WR3 (Hunter Renfrow – 3/40 on three targets) over the first three games. Adams had two elite games (10/141/1 and 8/177/2) vs. the Chargers in 2022. In addition, he gained more than 100 yards in six other starts with a floor of seven catches in 17 contests.
Los Angeles has the worst wide receiver defense (MIA – 21/375/3, TEN – 11/190/1, and MIN – 15/242/2), allowing 17.2 yards per catch. Tyreek Hill (11/215/2) and Justin Jefferson (7/149/1) posted elite games. Their best CB J.C. Jackson missed last week’s game as the Chargers view him as not being healthy.
The Raiders hope to have Jimmy Garoppolo back on Sunday after suffering a concussion late in Week 3. Adams comes off a great game, and he earns two more check marks for his 2022 play vs. the Chargers and the weakness in coverage by LA’s secondary.
Keenan Allen, LAC (DK – $7,900/FD – $9,500)
Allen came into 2023 off a down season due to an injury that cost him seven starts. From 2017 to 2021, he averaged 6.5 catches for 77 yards and 0.41 touchdowns (16.66 FPPG in PPR formats) over 78 games. Three games (6/76, 8/111/2, and 18/215) into this season, he is on a career pace (181/2,278/11) while adding a 49-yard passing score in Week 3. In his two starts vs. the Raiders last year, he had 10 catches for 154 yards and one touchdown on 18 targets. But he left his Week 1 matchup after 21 snaps with an injury.
The Raiders sit 19th in wide receiver defense (36/427/5 on 47 targets) while facing Denver (10/83/2), Buffalo (16/173/2), and Pittsburgh (10/171/1). Gade Davis (6/92/1) has the best game against them. Quarterbacks have seven passing touchdowns while averaging 33 pass attempts. CB Nate Hobbs lines up most of the time in the slot, giving Allen another winnable matchup on many plays.
In his career, Allen has been a better player at home (440/5,283/25), with his best output in catches (103), receiving yards (1,146), and targets (159) coming against Los Angeles over 17 games. He’s trending above his career path, suggesting a downtick game. His matchup is favorable, and Allen will command plenty of looks again in Week 4 with Austin Ekeler not expected to play and Mike Williams out for the season.
Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,700)
The Bills ran the ball well over the last two weeks (35/183/2 and 33/168/1) while dominating the time of possession vs. the Raiders (40:04) and Commanders (34:39). Josh Allen only has five passing touchdowns through three games while averaging only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Diggs has been active in two contests (10/102/1 and 8/111). Last year, he failed to make an impact in any of his three games (7/74, 5/57, and 7/114 with 29 combined targets) against the Dolphins.
Miami fell to 21st defending wide receivers (49/529/1 on 70 targets) due to the Broncos (18/257/1 on 26 targets) having success late in a blowout game in Week 3. Courtland Sutton (8/91/1) has the best game vs. the Dolphins.
Based on his recent resume against Miami, Diggs doesn’t project to post an impact game. He’ll get plenty of targets, with a chance at a higher ceiling if the Dolphins’ offense plays well.
Third-Tier Options
Chris Olave, NO (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,900)
Olave doesn’t have a touchdown in 2023. But his output checks the winning boxes in catches (22), receiving yards (302), and targets (32). He gained more than 100 yards in Week 1 (8/112) and Week 3 (8/104). Tampa Bay defended him well in two games (5/80 and 4/65) in 2022 while receiving 19 combined targets. The Saints have had him on the field for 79% of their plays so far this season.
The Bucs slipped to 22nd vs. wide receivers (40/599/3 on 61 targets). Minnesota (16/242/1) and Philadelphia (15/217/1) gained more than 100 yards from their wideouts, with three players finishing with over 100 yards (Justin Jefferson – 9/150, DJ Moore – 6/104, and A.J. Brown – 9/131). Wide receivers gain almost 15.0 yards per catch vs. Tampa Bay. CB Jamel Dean has been ruled out. CB Carlton Davis missed the last two matchups with a toe issue. However, the Bucs expect him to play.
Heading into the weekend in Week 4, the quarterback position for the Saints looks cloudy after Derek Carr returned to practice on Friday. Jameis Winston has enough experience in the NFL to carry the passing load for New Orleans if he does start. Olave has the opportunity to post an impact game. But he can’t pay off unless he adds touchdowns to his stat line. His WR/CB matchup supports an investment this week in the daily games.
DeVonta Smith, PHI (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,800)
The Eagles only looked Smith’s way 10 times over the past two weeks, leading to eight catches. He had a short game in receiving yards in Week 1 (47) and Week 3 (28) while hitting on a pair of long plays (54 and 63 yards) in Week 2 (4/131/1). Smith leads Philly in wide receiver snaps (99.1%). Last year, he dominated the Commanders on the road (8/169/1) with another score in his matchup at home (6/39/1).
Washington ranks 23rd vs. wideouts (35/538/4 on 55 targets), with most of the damage coming in Week 2 (DEN – 13/274/3). The defense faced only 94 passes over the first three games while showing risk defending the run (81/386/2 – 4.8 yards per rush). Two wide receivers (Marvin Mims – 2/113/1 and Stefon Diggs – 8/111) gained more than 100 yards.
Philadelphia should focus on beating CB Emmanuel Forbes (9/159 on 12 targets – per PFF). But he does have talent (first-round draft pick in 2023). His low chances over the past two weeks may signal that Week 4 is more favorable for his opportunity. I don’t like his salary, which requires more than 100 yards receiving with a score.
A.J. Brown, PHI (DK – $7,700/FD – $7,700)
Jalen Hurts got Brown more involved in Week 4 99/131 on 14 targets), but he still hasn’t found paydirt in 2023. He had double-digit chances (10 and 14) in two matchups. Last season, Washington shut him down in Philly (1/7 on four targets) while playing better at home (5/85/1 on 10 targets).
CB Kendall Fuller (5/26 on 12 targets per PFF) played well over the first three games. In 2022, he struggled at times in the deep passing game (15.1 yards per catch), with some mistakes in scoring.
A one-on-one matchup vs. Fuller would be a win for Brown. He has multi-touchdown upside while scoring nine of his 12 TDs at home in 2022.
Fourth-Tier Options
Puka Nacua, LAR (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,500)
After starting the season with two great games (10/119 and 15/147), the Bengals kept Nacua in check in Week 3 (5/72 on seven targets). The Rams had him on the field for a season-high 96% of their snaps against Cincinnati. His salary continues to rise, but he has yet to score his first NFL touchdown.
The Colts rank 25th in wide receiver fantasy defense (48/567/4 on 69 targets), with most of the damage coming in Week 2 vs. the Texans (21/309/2 on 30 targets). Two players (Calvin Ridley – 8/101/1 and Tank Dell – 7/146/1) delivered impact games. Indy moved CB JuJu Brents into their starting lineup last week to replace the struggling Darrell Baker. He is a big cornerback (6’3” and 200 lbs.) who the Rams drafted in the second round in 2023.
Nacua had the opportunity to support his current salary over the first two games. The Rams will give him plenty of chance again this week while trying to get him favorable matchups. Possible double-digit catches with more than 100 yards receiving and a score.
Jerry Jeudy, DEN (DK – $6,600/FD – $6,600)
After missing Week 1 with a hamstring issue, Jeudy failed to make an impact in his first two starts (3/25 and 5/81 on 12 targets). The Broncos had him on the field for 76% of their snaps in Week 3, compared to 68% in Week 2. He gained 46 of his 81 yards with one catch late in the fourth quarter against the Dolphins.
Chicago is about league average vs. wideouts (34/536/3 on 55 targets), with almost a third of the damage in receiving yards coming from Mike Evans (6/171/1). CB Jaylon Johnson played well over the first three games, but he has allowed 11 touchdowns over his first two seasons in the NFL after getting drafted in the second round in 2020. Last year, he allowed 15.8 yards per catch (per PFF), inviting some damage in big plays.
Jeudy was a fantasy favorite in the season-long drafts over the summer before he suffered his hamstring issue. He flashed late last season over five games (33/458/3), giving the explosiveness to shine in this matchup.
Fifth-Tier Options
Amari Cooper, CLE (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,000)
A slow start by the Browns’ passing game (678/4 – 6.6 yards per pass attempt) has kept Cooper’s salary in a lower range than his potential. Over the past two weeks, he had 14 catches for 206 yards and one touchdown on 18 targets, highlighted by his success in Week 3 (7/116/1). Cooper played well in 2022 (78/1,160/9) with weaker quarterback play in Cleveland. Last year, he had two short games (3/74 and 4/58) against Baltimore on 10 combined targets.
The Ravens sit 27th vs. wide receivers (59/552/2 on 89 targets) while allowing 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Baltimore has yet to give run a rushing score. Tee Higgins (8/89/2) had the best game against them. CB Marlon Humphrey has been ruled out in Week 4. The Ravens want to pressure the quarterback, leading to wide receivers gaining short yards per catch. On the flip side, they will have risk in the deep passing game if Deshaun Watson has enough time to throw.
Cooper has a proven NFL resume that is much better than many receivers with higher salaries in Week 4. His matchup is ideal based on his struggles last year, but Watson has the vision to take advantage of his skill set all over the field. I expect him to be an against-the-grain selection in Week 4 despite having some data points supporting continued success.
DeAndre Hopkins, TEN (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,300)
Three weeks into his Tennessee Titans’ career, Hopkins only has four catches for 153 yards on 25 targets. He’s gaining 10.9 yards per catch, with one play gaining more than 20 yards. With Treylon Burks out this week, Hopkins should have a natural bump in chances, especially if the Bengals can jump out to an early lead.
Cincinnati has the 12th-best defense vs. wideouts (33/435/2 on 60 targets). They’ve faced lower passes over the first two weeks (29 and 33) due to Cleveland (40/206/1) and Baltimore (37/178/1) having success running the ball. Last week, the Bengals’ offenses helped their defense by winning the time of possession battle (36:00 to 24:00).
Based on his start to the year, Hopkins appears to be overpriced, and the Titans’ offense gained only 94 yards in Week 3 (48 by Hopkins). Cinci has talent at cornerback, but they won’t have an edge if asked to cover Tennessee’s top wideout with one-on-one coverage.
Six Tier Options
DJ Moore, CHI (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,100)
I expressed interest in Justin Fields and Cole Kmet in my earlier writeup this week, so I thought it was important to dig down on the potential of Moore in Week 4. He had an uptick game in Week 2 (6/104), followed by an outcome (3/41/1) only worthy of playing in the season-long contests. Over the first three weeks, Moore has 15 targets, only 17.0% of the Bears’ target share. Last season, he had four catches for 103 yards and one score on six targets vs. the Broncos.
Denver lost their way defending the run (43/350/5) last week, but they also failed in pass coverage vs. wide receivers (13/271/2). On the year, the Broncos rank 26th in wide receiver coverage (44/547/5 on 53 targets). Jakobi Meyers (9/81/2) and Tyreek Hill (9/157/1) posted impact games. CB Patrick Surtain struggled last week (4/102/1 on six targets – per PFF). He also allowed three catches for 77 yards and one touchdown on five targets in 2022 vs. Carolina (Moore).
Moore is a talented upside wideout, but can Fields throw the ball well enough to beat a top cornerback in coverage? I don’t expect him to be popular this week, and Denver’s defense comes into this week with a lot to prove. Many of the fantasy markets will gravitate to the Dolphins’ players after a great week, but the Broncos’ defense may be the golden rainbow.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans (DK – $5,200/FD – $5,900)
I’m high on Chris Olave this week, so I can’t dismiss Thomas as an option based on his lower salary. Over the first three games, he had 18 catches for 166 yards on 26 targets (tied for 18th). Last season, with Jameis Winston behind center over three games, Thomas had three similar games in catches (5, 6, and 5) and receiving yards (57, 65, and 49) with 22 targets, but his two scores brighten up his ranking and playability.
Thomas must add more length to his catches to reach a higher ceiling. Only one of his 18 catches gained at least 20 yards this season, leading to only 9.2 yards per catch. I consider him a more attractive option in a Saints’ passing attack.
Backend Options: George Pickens, Adam Thielen, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Joshua Palmer
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