Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report
Last week we had some breakout performances. That included running backs, with five rushers eclipsing 20 points. A pair even topped 40. Oddly, they were on the same team. Our Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report looks for the next huge game to insert into your daily lineups.
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 3 DFS QB Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,700
Over the first three games, McCaffrey scored between 22.50 and 25.90 fantasy points in each matchup with PPR scoring. He extended his touchdown streak to 12 games but scored twice in only one contest. In addition, McCaffrey gained more than 100 yards in each of his starts (152, 116, and 119) while averaging 3.7 catches. Last season, he had 108 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches vs. the Cardinals while playing with Carolina. With San Fran against Arizona in other matchups, McCaffrey gained 185 yards with one score and 10 catches.
The Cardinals sit 25th defending running backs (75/325/1 with 15 catches for 82 yards and three touchdowns on 17 targets). However, the Cowboys ran the ball well against them in Week 3 (33/185 – 5.6 yards per rush). Their pass rush (11 sacks) has been better than expected out of the gate. Also, Arizona played from the lead in all three of their games through the third quarter.
McCaffrey is an absolute beast on a path to being the best running back in the game in 2023. The 49ers will ride him hard when needed (100% of their snaps in Week 2) while resting him when playing from a big lead. His floor has been three times his salary, putting him a second touchdown away from 30.00 fantasy points. The second half could be in the hands of Elijah Mitchell on many plays, so McCaffrey will need to get his scoring and yards early in the game. He is rated as the top running back in Week 4.
Tony Pollard, DAL (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,400)
The usage of Pollard (58 touches) has been exceptional over the past two weeks, leading to 230 combined yards with 10 catches. He has yet to get into space catching the ball (3.6 yards per reception). Dallas had him on the field for 86% of the Cowboys’ plays last week, compared to 64% over the past two weeks. Over his final 11 games in 2022, Pollard gained 1,020 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 33 catches.
New England ranks 20th in running back defense (66.40 FPPG), with most of the damage coming in Week 2 to the Dolphins (185 combined yards with two touchdowns and five catches). On the year, the Patriots allow 3.6 yards per rush, with backs catching 16 passes for 92 yards on 18 targets.
Finally, if the Cowboys continue to ride Pollard at his current rate, his chance of injury does increase. His explosiveness has yet to show up in his stats, and he does offer scoring upside. New England has a top-10 overall defense, but of volume of touches and value in the passing game give Pollard a high floor in most weeks. Ultimately, he needs two scores to earn difference-maker status at his current price point.
Mid-Tier Options
Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,100/FD – $8,200)
The magic in the Raiders’ run game has been missing over the first three weeks. Last season, Jacob averaged 4.9 yards per rush, but he gained only 2.4 yards over his 45 carries this year. Las Vegas gave him 21 touches in Week 1 and 20 vs. the Steelers. They had him on the field for 82% of their snaps in Week 2. In 2022, Jacobs played well at home against the Chargers (26/144/1 with two catches for six yards) while failing to make an impact in his road matchup (73 combined yards with one catch).
Los Angeles controlled the Dolphins’ backs in Week 1 (112 combined yards with one score and four catches). Over the past two matchups, their run defense got progressively worse (34/141/2 and 24/130) while allowing 12 catches for 64 yards on 16 targets. In 2022, the Chargers finished 26th vs. running backs (25.26 FPPG), with two scoring more than 40.00 fantasy points.
Jacobs runs hard, and he’s on the field a ton. The Raiders need a correction game on the ground. To be in play, he needs more than 100 rushing yards with a touchdown and a handful of catches. His ceiling games in 2022 led to 30+ fantasy points in four contests (34.50, 30.30, 36.50, and 48.30).
Kyren Williams, LAR (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,600)
At this point in the season, there are some flaws in Williams’ game (3.6 yards per rush and 42.1% catch rate). On the positive side, the Rams had him on the field for every play last week (95% in Week 2). His early fantasy ranking (5th) is driven by touchdowns (4 – 44.5% of his fantasy points in PPR formats). Williams averages 15.7 touches and 19.3 chances per game.
The Colts played well vs. the run over the first two games (35/105/2 and 26/52) before getting run over by Lamar Jackson (14/101) in Week 3. The Ravens’ backs gained only 83 yards on their 22 carries. Running backs have 12 catches for 95 yards on 15 targets against Indianapolis.
Williams will get plenty of chances to score fantasy points. He must make more significant plays to earn his keep in yards. I like his chances in the passing game, and backs tend to have a much higher catch number. Seems viable, but Williams needs a touchdown and four to five catches to reach a playable number.
Low-Value Options
Breece Hall, NYJ (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,200)
Besides his two big runs (26 and 83 yards), Hall gained 45 yards on his other 24 carries. The Jets had him on the field for a season-high 49% of their plays, pointing to better success going forward. Any chance of a productive game starts with the Jets’ quarterback getting a pulse. Over 25 games in his NFL career, Zach Wilson has a 54.9% completion rate while gaining only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. New York has faced the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th ranked defenses against quarterbacks, and the Chiefs come into this week sitting in the eighth position.
Over three games, Kansas City played well defending running backs (13.90 FPPG). They’ve allowed 59 rushes for 259 yards and one score to backs with 12 catches for 74 yards on 13 targets. The hint of upside for the Jets’ run game is the 4.4 yards per allow by the Chiefs to running backs, and this matchup is played at home.
Hall is a talented player, but New York has to establish the run to have any chance of being competitive in this contest. His salary requires 22.00 fantasy points, and the Jets’ scoring must come on the ground. Dalvin Cook (25/58) has yet to make an impact, and the Jets gave him only 16 touches over the past two weeks. Any New York player in this matchup will be against the grain, inviting low ownership.
Javonte Williams, DEN (DK – $5,500/FD – $5,800)
The Denver running back production has been relatively quiet over the first three games (58/228/1 with 19 catches for 110 yards on 25 targets). They’re gaining 3.9 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per catch. Last week’s game got out of hand early, leading to Williams being on the field for 42% of their plays, compared to 45% over the first two contests. He’s averaging 14.7 touches, which would turn into a favorable opportunity if the Broncos played from the lead and Williams was on the field for more than 60% of their plays.
The Bears rank 31st defending running backs (34.67 FPPG). They’ve allowed the most rushing attempts (90 – only 3.4 yards per rush) and receiving yards (170) to backs while allowing 11.3 yards per catch. Over 32 possessions, offenses scored 13 touchdowns and five field goals.
Denver moved the ball well over their last two matchups (430 and 375 combined yards). Williams should progressively get more chances and better running lanes to improve his production. His matchup is favorable, but he needs some in close chances to enhance his fantasy value. Denver has to be motivated in Week 4 after getting lambasted by the Dolphins.
Bottom Tier Fliers: Khalil Herbert and Elijah Mitchell
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