Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report
Last week, four quarterbacks (Justin Herbert – 33.35, Tua Tagovailoa – 31.45, Lamar Jackson – 31.20, and Kirk Cousins – 30.35) scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The best-value quarterback in the DFS market was Andy Dalton (27.15). Fifteen QBs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, three less than in Week 2 (only 10 in Week 1). Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after three games:
- Kirk Cousins (86.45)
- Justin Herbert (81.75)
- Tua Tagovailoa (81.00)
- Patrick Mahomes (76.45)
- Jordan Love (75.15)
Joe Burrow (34.65 fantasy points – 30th) remains the weak link of the top-tier quarterbacks drafted in 2023. C.J. Stroud (63.80) sits 12th, one notch above Mac Jones (60.70). Four quarterbacks scored at least 20.00 fantasy points each week – Cousins, Herbert, Mahomes, and Love. Daniel Jones has two bust weeks (7.50 and 6.35) vs. the Cowboys and 49ers while booming in Week 2 (34.95) vs. the Cardinals.
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
Three weeks into the 2023 DFS season, Allen is still looking for his first impact game. He’s been the best fantasy quarterback over the past three years, scoring at least 30.00 fantasy points seven times in 2022 (twice vs. the Dolphins – 31.70 and 39.90). The Bills’ offense has a much better structure in the run game over the last two weeks due to the play of James Cook (32/221 with six catches for 50 yards). Surprisingly, Allen is gaining only 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 7.6 in 2022, which was also an issue in 2021 (6.8).
Miami’s defense had massive issues with the Chargers’ run game in Week 1 (40/233/3). Over the next two weeks, they cleaned up this problem (25/88 and 20/69). But New England and Denver haven’t run the ball well in 2023. In addition, Allen’s right arm forces the Dolphins to defend the whole field. The Broncos did have three completions of 25 yards or more in Week 3. Miami has eight sacks with increased pressure on the quarterback this season.
The over/under for this game is 53.5. Also, the echo in my head from a friend of mine is that this game total usually falls on the underside…or was it the over? Either way, Allen has the “due feeling,” and his recent resume vs. the Dolphins suggests four times his salary (or more than 32.00 fantasy points) is well within reach. In addition, the Miami should push the issue on the scoreboard.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,600)
After a slow passing start in Week 1 (229/1) against Miami, Herbert took advantage of his last two favorable matchups (305/2 and 416/3) vs. the Titans and Vikings on the road. His connection with Keenan Allen has been excellent over the past two weeks (8/111/2 and 18/215). He lost Mike Williams, forcing Los Angeles to get more production from Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. The Chargers also hope Austin Ekeler will be back on Sunday. Herbert had 622 combined yards and four touchdowns in two games vs. the Raiders in 2022.
Las Vegas sits 20th in quarterback defense (21.40 FPPG) while allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt to Denver, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh. Their success had been helped by facing only 33 passes per game. Seven of their eight passing touchdowns allowed have come to wide receivers and tight ends.
The health of Jimmy Garoppolo would be a significant factor for the ceiling of Herbert in Week 4. If Ekeler plays, Los Angeles increases their chance of having long scoring drives that eat up the clock. Their defense has been brutal vs. quarterbacks (1,079/7 – 9.1 yards per pass attempt) and wide receivers (47/807/6 on 68 targets). That suggests the Raiders will move the ball well in this game.
Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,800)
The Eagles have yet to hit their offensive stride. They scored 84 points over the first three weeks, highlighted by more field goals (9) than touchdowns (8) over their 35 possessions. In 2022, Philly scored 59 touchdowns with 22 field goals on their 186 possessions. Their offensive line allowed eight sacks and a shorter passing window out of the gate, leading to 6.9 yards per pass attempt (8.1 in 2022). Their versatile offense turned to the run game over the past two weeks (48/259/3 and 40/201/1), led by the emerging D’Andre Swift. Last year, Hurts played well in Washington (360/3) with a productive fantasy day at home (203 combined yards with three touchdowns).
The Commanders are just under the league average vs. quarterbacks (18th – 20.03 FPPG). They allowed 300 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 2 to the Broncos. But Washington held Josh Allen (218/1) to a dull passing game last week. Their defense had ten sacks over the first two games. Over the past two games, Washington gave up 70 points (eight touchdowns and five field goals).
Hurts almost has an against-the-grain feel this week at the top end. His higher salary makes him challenging to roster, and he must score more than 30.00 fantasy points even to be considered. Last year, he had eight impact games. Quarterbacks ran the ball well over the last two weeks (6/56 and 5/44/1) against Washington. If the Eagles’ defense creates turnovers and a short field on multiple drives, Hurts will have no problem delivering at least four scores.
Mid-Tier Options
Joe Burrow, CIN (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,200)
Nothing in Burrow’s stats this year suggests he is the same player as 2022. His completion rate (55.4) is trailing last season (68.3) while gaining only 4.7 yards per pass attempt (7.4 in 2022). Over the past two games, the Bengals did throw the ball 90 times. His calf issue will limit his mobility and cost Burrow the time to complete long passes. His offensive line has allowed five sacks while creating minimal holes for the run game (3.6 yards per rush) while facing a developing Browns’ defense, Baltimore, and the Rams.
Wide receivers had 57 catches for 690 yards and four touchdowns on 76 targets against the Titans, helping quarterbacks gain 8.4 yards per pass rush with 899 passing yards and five touchdowns. Tennessee continues to play well vs. the run (2.6 yards per rush) while picking up 10 sacks.
Burrow has a winnable matchup and the wideouts to test the Titans’ defense. The key for Burrow is his offensive line giving him enough time to get the ball downfield. His lingering calf issue and slow start to the year will lower his percentage own in Week 4. He also needs Tennessee to play much better offensively, as the Bengals’ coaching staff tends to go into conservative mode when playing from the lead.
Justin Fields, CHI (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,200)
The Bears’ defense couldn’t get Patrick Mahomes off the field in Week 3, which was also the case against Tampa Bay in the previous game. Fields benefited from two late turnovers by the Chiefs, giving him a token touchdown and some yards in a game that Chicago shouldn’t have scored. Three games into the season, the Bears have five touchdowns on their 32 possessions with six turnovers. Fields is averaging 16.73 FPPG in four-point passing touchdown leagues. He has yet to show off the explosive running ability (24/109/1) from 2022 (160/1,143/8).
Based on the pure disaster shown by Denver’s defense against Miami (70 points, 726 combined yards, and 10 touchdowns), Fields should earn another start in the fantasy market. In Week 2, the Broncos also struggled to stop Washington (35 points), especially in the fourth quarter (140 yards and two touchdowns). Denver ranks 31st vs. quarterbacks (27.05 FPPG) and last defending running backs (50.37 FPPG).
Five games into 2022, Fields scored only 71.4 fantasy points with similar failure in his completion rate (55.7 – 58.0 in 2023) and rushing yards (42/194/1). After three progression games (21.30, 26.15, and 27.55 fantasy points), he dominated against Miami (43.95) and Detroit (42.05) at home. I don’t believe he is in form, but his matchup is favorable.
Low-Value Options
Deshaun Watson, CLE (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,100)
Watson climbed off the fantasy map in Week 3 to post his best game (305/2) of the season, but he finished 10th in quarterback scoring (21.40) for the week. In the first half, Watson had a potential touchdown to Amari Cooper, but the ref blew the whistle, thinking he stepped out of bounds after his catch. He didn’t, and Cooper had one man to beat to reach the end zone. Watson lacked follow-through in his stats due to Tennessee scoring only three points and gaining a measly 94 offensive yards.
Baltimore plays well vs. the run (3.8 yards per carry) with no rushing touchdowns allowed. They’ve played better than expected defending quarterbacks (691/3 – 5.4 yards per pass attempt) while facing 43 passes per game. Their defense has 11 sacks. S Marcus Williams and C Marlon Humphrey missed five games so far this season.
For Watson to have any chance of improving on last week’s production, he needs Lamar Jackson to solve the Browns’ defense. Baltimore has weakness in their secondary, giving Cleveland a window to air the ball out if they choose to attack that weakness.
Jameis Winston, New Orleans (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,500)
Winston’s last winning day in the DFS market was in 2021 in Week 1 (185/5) and Week 5 (305/4). He made three starts (874/4) last season, where 13 of his 73 completions gained 20 yards (five reached the 40-yard mark). Over the first three weeks, New Orleans played in three low-scoring battles. Their offense allowed 12 sacks while creating small run lanes (3.4 yards per rush). The return of Alvin Kamara helps the Saints’ overall offense.
The Bucs have shown risk defending wide receivers in two games (MIN – 16/242/1 and PHI – 15/217/1) while allowing almost 15.0 yards per catch. Their run defense kept the Vikings (17/41) and Bears (16/67/1) in check before caving in Week 3 (PHI – 40/201/1). Tampa Bay sits 12th in quarterback defense (17.50 FPPG).
New Orleans has a top-12 wide receiver (Chirs Olave – 22/302), and Michael Thomas (18/166) played well with Winston over three games (5/57/2, 6/65/1, and 5/49) in 2022. If the Saints can block better this week, their offense will have more chances to score in this matchup. Winston needs 250 yards with two scores to be near his salary bucket. I expect more, and I like his cheap salary paired with his receiving talent.
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