Week 4 NFL Player Props

Week 4 NFL Prop Bets

Week 3 was another profitable weekend for the bettors at FullTime Fantasy. We went 5-2 (+2.6 units) and are now 10-4 (+5.0 units) on the season. Garrett Wilson was a mere one yard away from us producing a 6-1 record last week. Let’s see if we can continue this trend of winning wagers in our Week 4 NFL Prop Bets.   

Through three weeks of the season, there have been more injuries than usual and countless surprise performances. In the fantasy football world, not many people would have expected Kirk Cousins as the QB1, Raheem Mostert as the RB1, Keenan Allen as the WR1, and T.J. Hockenson as the TE1.

Perhaps some may have predicted Hock as a top tight end but Sam Laporta, Hunter Henry, and Evan Engram are just behind him before Travis Kelce rounds out the top-five tight ends. All this is to say that anything can happen on any given Sunday.

However, fantasy football owners definitely have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below.

Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 4 NFL prop bets.

Justin Fields OVER 184.5 Passing Yards (-115)

I know, I know, how is it possible to put your trust in Fields’ arm after his less-than-mediocre start to the 2023 campaign? Well, Fields gets a juicy matchup against a Denver Broncos team that just allowed a whopping 70 points to the Miami Dolphins. The winless Bears will host the winless Broncos at Soldier Field and this is the perfect get-right game for Fields and the rest of the Chicago offense. 

Although Fields only managed to throw for 99 yards last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, he did eclipse 200 passing yards in each of his first two contests of the season. With better weapons than he has had in previous seasons, particularly in D.J. Moore, look for Fields to right the ship in Week 4.

The Broncos are currently allowing 288.3 passing yards per game and the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. They have surrendered nine passing touchdowns and have only come up with one interception through three games thus far.

While I wouldn’t expect 300 passing yards from the young signal caller, the Bears will find a way to move the chains against this beatable Broncos secondary. I don’t think this one will be all that close. I’d even consider wagering multiple units on this one. This seems like a slam dunk. 

Lamar Jackson UNDER 203.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Jackson has a very tough matchup against Baltimore’s division rivals, the Cleveland Browns. These AFC North clashes always seem to be low-scoring affairs and Cleveland’s defense has been absolutely dominant through the first three weeks of the season. The Browns are allowing just 109 passing yards per game and the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Let’s examine how the three starting quarterbacks did against Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s electric defense.
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As you can see, Cleveland’s defense has done an amazing job stifling opposing teams’ passing attacks. The opposing quarterbacks have struggled to even complete 50% of their passes. Meanwhile, the Browns have only allowed one passing touchdown in three games. Last week, Myles Garrett and the defensive line sacked Ryan Tannehill five times. They now have nine sacks on the young season.

Although Lamar Jackson is a much more difficult quarterback to bring down, I don’t expect Lamar to have a vintage performance in this battle between AFC North powerhouses. It also doesn’t help that offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley is dealing with a knee injury and pass catchers Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. have injuries of their own.

I’m anticipating a very low-scoring contest in which Jackson struggles to move the chains, especially without a reliable running back in the backfield. Jackson only has 608 passing yards in three games this season and I expect his early-season passing struggles to continue in a tough Week 4 matchup. Take the Under. 

James Cook OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Bills have gotten back on track after an ugly season-opening loss to the New York Jets. In Week 4, Buffalo will take on another division rival but this time they will face the undefeated and sizzling hot Miami Dolphins on Sunday. The Bills’ offense currently is second in rushing success rate and third in EPA per rush. This is largely due to the Bills’ strong offensive line and the fact that opposing defenses have to pay so much attention to Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. 

Miami has some elite players in their secondary but they are much weaker against the run. James Cook should be able to find plenty of open space against a Dolphins defense that has allowed 144 rushing yards per game and ranks 30th in the league in rushing success rate after three weeks. 

This line looks far too low given Cook’s recent success. Cook tallied 98 yards on the ground in Buffalo’s blowout victory over the Washington Commanders last week. And in Week 2 against the Las Vegas Raiders, the second-year pro amassed 123 rushing yards. Even if this game isn’t as high-scoring as one might anticipate, Cook should have no problem eclipsing this pedestrian line. 

Kenneth Walker III OVER 64.6 Rushing Yards (-130)

Walker is coming off his best performance of the season in which he turned 21 touches into 150+ all-purpose yards and two touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders. This week, Walker gets a favorable matchup against a New York Giants defense that is currently allowing 136 rushing yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. After scoring four touchdowns in his last two outings, the Seahawks are going to utilize their talented young back as much as possible in this primetime matchup against Big Blue.

Check out how the three top backs have fared against the Giants on the ground in the first three games of the 2023 season:

 As you can see, all three running backs the Giants have faced have produced 70+ rushing yards and at least one touchdown. Although Pete Carroll trusts Geno Smith and Seattle’s passing attack, New York is especially exploitable in the run game. Look for Walker to easily surpass this line on Monday Night Football. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

St. Brown has surpassed this line in back-to-back contests and is coming off two 100-plus yard performances in a row against the Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons. The second-year stud receiver has been a staple of consistency. Even in the season opener when he failed to eclipse this line, he still corralled six receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown in Detroit’s upset victory over the reigning Super Bowl champs. 

Although Detroit drafted several skill players including Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam Laporta, it’s clear that St. Brown is the most dynamic player on this offense and that he serves as the focal point of the Lions’ passing attack. In a primetime game against their division rivals, Jared Goff should key in on his go-to target.

On the season, St. Brown has caught 21-of-27 targets for 275 yards and one trip to the end zone. In Week 4, the talented wideout gets a matchup against a Green Bay secondary that has been the fifth-worst against opposing WR1s in DVOA this year. 

Smash the Over as St. Brown is going to be peppered with targets from Jared Goff, especially with Jameson Williams still serving his six-game suspension. 

Adam Thielen Any Time Touchdown (+165)

Maybe I’m a sucker for the revenge game narrative but Adam Thielen has been on fire in his first season with the Carolina Panthers. Through the first three games of the 2023 campaign, Thielen has caught 20 of his 25 targets for 211 receiving yards and two trips to the end zone. After playing his first nine professional seasons with the Vikings, Thielen will have a chip on his shoulder as he attempts to show the Vikings what they are missing out on this season. 

Minnesota’s season has not begun the way they had hoped as a tough Week 3 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers dropped their record to 0-3. The offense hasn’t been the problem, it’s primarily been the defense. Minnesota is currently allowing 261.7 passing yards per game, the seventh-most in the NFL. Additionally, the Vikings’ secondary has permitted five touchdowns to opposing wideouts, the second-most in the league. 

Considering Thielen’s added motivation against his former team, his recent form, and the fact that his targets, receptions, and yardage have increased incrementally each week, the veteran wideout has a very good chance at finding the end zone in Week 4. Bryce Young is still considered questionable for this contest but I don’t think that will hurt the veteran’s potential output as Thielen seemed to have better chemistry with fellow veteran, Andy Dalton, under center. 

Thielen has been Carolina’s best offensive skill player through three weeks of the season. Also, gameflow should work in his favor considering this is an absolute must-win for Minnesota. Plus, their offense hasn’t been a problem with Kirk Cousins firing on all cylinders. Expect Thielen to hit paydirt in Week 4.

Kyle Pitts OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week, Pitts hit his over and made us some cash so we’re going back to the well as the Falcons travel to England to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Pitts hasn’t been anything to write home about in 2023 but his nine targets in Week 3 were definitely encouraging. Desmond Ridder has been zoning in on Pitts more and more as the season has progressed. In Week 1, Pitts only saw three targets. In Week 2, he was targeted five times before seeing a season-high nine targets in Week 3. 

The Jaguars have yielded 48.8 receiving yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season. The Falcons are dogs in this game and the Jags are much more used to playing across the pond. Game flow should work in Pitts’ favor as the Falcons are likely to fall behind against a Jaguars team that has yet to show what they can truly do on offense.

I expect Week 4 to be Trevor Lawrence’s coming out party and the Falcons will be forced to play catchup. Look for Ridder to pepper Pitts with targets and for the big tight end to produce 40+ yards. Although Pitts has remarkable talent, he has yet to produce a big game this season. Pitts is poised to change that on Sunday morning in England.

If you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back!