Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report
A late surge in the fourth quarter by Brian Robinson (two touchdowns) pushed him to the top of running back scoring in Week 2, edging out Kyren Williams (28.00), Saquan Barkley (27.20, and D’Andre Swift (27.10). Six other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five back in scoring in PPR leagues after two games:
- Christian McCaffrey (48.40)
- Kyren Williams (22.70)
- Brian Robinson (42.50)
- Tony Pollard (42.10)
- Bijan Robinson (20.75)
There have already been three significant injuries to running backs (Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, and Saquon Barkley), sending fantasy managers to an ultra-thin waiver wire to solve their injury woes.
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 3 DFS QB Report, WR Report, and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Tony Pollard, DAL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,400)
Over the first two weeks of the season, the Cowboys have played from the lead for about 150 minutes while never trailing in a game. They’ve struggled to run the ball in other matches (4.1 and 3.0 yards per rush) despite averaging 37 carries. Pollard has been on the field for 64% of their snaps in both contests, leading to 191 combined yards with two touchdowns and nine catches (42.10 fantasy points in PPR formats). He is well behind last year’s pace in yards per rush (3.6 – 5.2 in 2022) and yards per catch (5.4 – 9.5 in 2022). Pollard scored eight of his 12 touchdowns at home last season.
The Cardinals defended running back well over the first two games (44/149/1 – 3.4 yards per carry). They’ve allowed two receiving scores to backs, with minimal damage in catches (8) and receiving yards (46). Arizona finished 27th in running back defense (27.39 FPPG) in 2022.
Pollard had seven rushes inside the five-yard line and 12 inside the 10 yards. I didn’t like to see Rico Dowdle on the field near the goal line last week on one series. But Dowdle failed to reach paydirt in his two chances. Pollard’s 32 touches in Week 2 were career-high. His salary in the DFS market requires an impact game. That is something he achieved only once in 2022 (149 combined yards with three touchdowns and one catch). I see a correct game coming in big plays, giving him a chance to be the top running back of the week.
Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,000)
The fantasy market got a taste of the potential in Week 2 vs. the Packers. Atlanta gave him 24 touches compared to 16 by Tyler Allgeier, leading to a wide edge in combined yards (172 to 48). His snap count rose from 63% to 72%. Robinson had 39 touches on the year while averaging 6.2 yards per rush. Two of his plays gained at least 20 yards.
His first road start comes in Detroit, matching him against the electric Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions played well vs. the run over the first two games (23/90 and 25/82/2 – 3.6 yards per rush), with 37.8% of their yards allowed coming from the quarterback position. Backs have nine catches for 73 yards on 11 targets. Detroit finished last season ranked 11th defending running backs (21.06 FPPG).
Robinson’s salary looks high, but it does match his three-down potential if the Falcons give him their best scoring chances in Week 3. He is one of two running backs who scored more than 20.00 fantasy points over the first two weeks of the season. His salary commands 32.00 fantasy points at DraftKings and 27.00 at FanDuel. Robinson is the player who could post a separator score in any given game.
Mid-Tier Options
Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,000)
The Raiders started the season with two road games. Their offensive line struggled to create running lanes for Jacobs (28/46) out of the game. He made more plays in the passing game vs. the Bills (5/51 on six targets). But Las Vegas had -2 yards rushing on nine carries with Jacobs on the field. The Raiders gave him 73% of their running back snaps, compared to 80% in Week 1.
The Steelers were among the worst teams in the NFL defending the run over the first two weeks (34/188/1 and 35/198/1) while allowing 5.6 yards per rush. Running backs had six catches for 42 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets. Last season, Pittsburgh improved to 10th vs. running backs in fantasy points allowed (19.91 per game – 27.28 in 2021).
Jacobs has workhorse upside, and his salary has slid into a more favorable area. Home cooking should unlock some of his struggles. And the DFS market will flock to him based on the Steelers’ failure vs. running backs out of the gate. Jacobs profiles well in Week 3 based on his ceiling outputs in 2022 (34.50, 30.30, 36.50, and 48.30 fantasy points). He started last year with 154 yards and two catches over two matchups.
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,000)
The injury to David Montgomery should be a big win for Gibbs over the next few weeks. The Lions will rotate in a second running back. However, a hot start by Gibbs could lead to an explosive output in Week 3. Over the first two weeks, he gained 116 yards with nine catches on 23 touches. Detroit had him on the field for 48% of their plays against the Seahawks, compared to 27% in Week 1. Despite the impression of a slow start (4.2 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per catch), Gibbs is on pace for 986 yards and 77 catches. He ranks 26th in running back scoring (20.60) in PPR formats.
Atlanta had yet to allow a touchdown to a running back. They’ve gained 241 combined yards over two games with seven catches on 50 touches. Last season, the Falcons finished 24th in running back defense (24.11 FPPG).
Gibbs needs about 26.60 fantasy points to be viable at DraftKings. His touches (11.5 per game) and playing time should naturally rise in Week 3, and he has the explosiveness to post a dynamic game. Remember last season, the Lions’ backs had 29 touchdowns, with seven runs over 40 yards. I expect a huge game, and I’ll shove all in on Gibbs in Week 3.
Travis Etienne, JAC (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,000)
After a productive first week (104 combined yards with one touchdown and five catches), Etienne turned in a bust game (12/40 with two catches for two yards) against the Chiefs. The Jaguars had him on the field for 72% of their plays while missing time in the second half due to cramping. The Jaguars gave only two other chances at running back to D’Ernest Johnson. Etienne had 254 combined yards with one score and six catches in his two matchups vs. the Texans in 2022.
Houston has already allowed six rushing touchdowns (four to running backs), but backs gained only 185 combined yards with six catches. The Texans had the worst defense in the NFL vs. running backs (31.08 FPPG – 26 touchdowns) in 2022.
Etienne has yet to establish himself as an elite back due to his questionable ceiling in scoring and catches. His role in Week 1 highlighted his potential opportunity. But he needs the Jaguars’ offense to play better to be a more trusted asset in the DFS market. His matchup points to upside, and his success vs. Houston paints a winning picture if he hits paydirt at least once.
Low-Value Options
Isiah Pacheco, KC (DK – $5,400/FD – $5,700)
I’m listing Pacheco based on his matchup, not his health. As of Saturday, he has a questionable tag next to his name on the injury report due to a hamstring issue. If he can’t play, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK – $4,100/FD – $4,900) becomes a huge salary savoir at running back. Over the first two weeks, Kansas City’s backs gained 202 combined yards with 12 catches. They are still looking for the first touchdown. Pacheco has only been on the field for 49.2% of their plays, compared to 31.8% for Jerick McKinnon and 18.9% for Clyde Edward-Helaire.
The Bears held ball carriers to 3.2 yards over the first two games with 307 combined yards, two touchdowns, and nine catches. Aaron Jones had two long catches (34 and 51 yards) in Week 1. Chicago finished 31st vs. running backs in 2022 (29.37 FPPG), and their defensive coordinator quit over the last week.
The Chiefs have a much better offense, and they should right the ship in scoring in this matchup. Their starting running will get a chance to score, with more upside if Kansas City runs the ball well and plays from the lead. I can’t play Pacheco if he is still listed as questionable on Sunday.
Brian Robinson (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,500)
Based on his yards per rush (3.9) over his first two seasons in the NFL, Robinson won’t jump over the page. He’s gained more than 20 yards only five times in his 254 career touches. The eye test paints an upside physical runner who offers closing value for the Commanders when they play from the lead. After two games, Washington has had him on the field for 56.3% of his plays, but Robinson has touched the ball 49.4% of the time over his 81 snaps.
The Bills’ defense dominated the run in Week 2 (15/55) after struggling in this area vs. the Jets (28/172). They allowed 109 yards on two carries to Breece Hall in Week 1. Buffalo played well against running backs last season (18.94 FPPG – 5th).
Washington wants to feature Robinson in their offense, but his playing time will diminish when they are forced to throw and chase on the scoreboard. When doing the preseason research on Buffalo, I thought the interior of their line had some downside vs. the run. I don’t believe this is a great matchup, but I can’t dismiss Robinson, as he could offer an edge in ownership in the DFS market while playing at home.
Kendre Miller, NO (DK – $4,300/FD – $4,600)
Miller flashed in the preseason, but a hamstring issue lingered in early September, costing him a pair of games. The Saints removed him from the injury report midweek, pointing to an active role vs. the Packers. Miller has a better pass-catching profile than Tony Jones despite a low resume in this area at TCU over 33 games (29/229/1 on 49 targets). Last year, he played well over his 224 rushes (224/1,399/17).
So far this season, running backs have 55 carries for 235 yards and one touchdown vs. Green Bay while being active in the passing game (15/128 on 21 targets).
His price point makes sense, but New Orleans will give Jones touches, and Taysom Hill could also get in the way. In addition, the Saints have only thrown four passes to running backs this year. I must see his usage before donating to his cause in the daily games.
Pass-Catching Fliers in Week 3: Elijah Dotson, Jerick McKinnon, Antonio Gibson, and Jaylen Warren
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