Week 3 NFL Prop Bets
The 2023 NFL season has been filled with surprises, on a team level and on an individual level. Through two weeks, Jordan Love has the top passer rating and Puka Nucua leads the league in receptions. Only Nostradamus would have predicted that. Speaking of predicting, the FullTime Fantasy Week 3 NFL Prop Bets will attempt to project more winners.
After a profitable Week 2 in which we went 5-2 (+2.4 units), it’s time to start pinpointing the top prop bets to exploit in Week 3’s slate of action. Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 3 NFL prop bets.
Tua Tagovailoa OVER 264.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Through two weeks of the season, Tagovailoa is averaging 307.5 passing yards per game and has been one of the most accurate and explosive quarterbacks in the NFL. Some believed Tagovailoa’s 2022 season was a bit of a fluke. But so far, he’s shown that he has the potential to be a top-five quarterback in this league. Especially given the weapons he has to work with. The offense has worked seamlessly under Mike McDaniel’s fast-paced scheme. And defenses are having all sorts of trouble trying to defend Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
In Week 3, the Dolphins’ passing attack gets a tough but beatable matchup against Patrick Surtain and the Denver Broncos’ secondary. Denver just allowed 35 points to the Washington Commanders. QB Sam Howell finished with 299 yards. If Howell can surpass this line, I have no doubt that Tua can. Even with Waddle still in the concussion protocol. Waddle is progressing and should be good to go by Sunday.
Look for Tua to get back to the basics and air it out at home. The Dolphins might just have one of the most explosive offenses in the league and Tua will get back on point after a bit of a downtick in Week 2.
Kirk Cousins OVER 40.5 Longest Completion (-115)
The Vikings step into a favorable Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers’ secondary has not looked good at all through the first two weeks of the season. And Cousins has connected on plenty of long balls to Justin Jefferson and rookie Jordan Addison. LA has allowed a league-high 12 completions of at least 15 yards through the first two games of the year.
Tua completed 9-of-15 balls downfield in Week 1. Even Ryan Tannehill completed 3-of-4 deep passes in Week 2 against this defense. This trend should continue with Cousins, as the Vikings have not had a ton of success on the ground this season with Alexander Mattison. Since the start of the 2022 season, Cousins has completed a pass of 40 yards in 11 of his 19 outings. Cousins will exploit this secondary for at least one bomb.
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 251.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Lawrence hasn’t dominated as much as many anticipated through the first two weeks of the 2023 NFL season. He’s only averaging 228.5 passing yards per game. Also, Lawrence has failed to hit this line in a regular season game since Week 14 of the 2022 season. Although Lawrence has a ton of weapons at his disposal highlighted by Calvin Ridley, he has thrown 15% of his passes off target according to Pro Football Focus. The league average hovers around 10%.
Although the Texans aren’t a very scary matchup on paper, they have been sending blitzes the ninth-most in the NFL. Lawrence has specifically struggled when under pressure. This game has Travis Etienne written all over it. I think the Jaguars will lean heavily on the rushing attack and the defense. Considering Lawrence has failed to hit this line this season, this is a pretty safe bet despite the favorable matchup.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
CMC has looked as good as ever in his first full season with the San Francisco 49ers. Through the first two weeks of the season, the All-Pro running back is averaging 134 yards per game on the ground. He did that against two defenses led by stud defenders. In week 1, McCaffrey lit up T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ stout defense. Then in Week 2, CMC scorched Aaron Donald and the Los Angeles Rams.
In the very first contest of Week 3, McCaffrey gets a much easier opponent in the New York Giants, a team that has been dominated by opposing running backs thus far. The Giants’ defense ranks 25th in the NFL in yards per carry. Tony Pollard didn’t do a ton in Week 1 (due to the 40-0 blowout) but still managed to score two touchdowns. Then James Conner rushed for over 100 yards and a touchdown in the Cardinals’ 31-28 loss to the G-Men in Week 2.
McCaffrey should have no problem eclipsing this line considering he is the most talented back the Giants have faced thus far. The only concern here is that the Niners could run away with this contest quickly much like the Cowboys dispatched the Giants in Week 1. Especially considering Saquon Barkley will be sidelined. And although the Niners would like to give Elijah Mitchell the rock more, CMC should still have no problem rushing for 80+ yards this evening. Smash the Over.
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Washington has a very tough matchup looming against a strong Buffalo Bills defense. However, this line still feels way too low for a player who just went off in Week 2. Robinson produced 87 rushing yards on 18 carries and found the end zone twice. He also caught two of his three targets for 42 additional yards through the air.
Although the Bills stymied Josh Jacobs and a Las Vegas Raiders’ rushing attack that has struggled to get it going, Buffalo was absolutely shredded by the due of Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook back in their season opener. The Bills surrendered a whopping 172 rushing yards in Week 2.
Robinson Jr. may not produce 100 rushing yards but he should absolutely tally 57 in a game that may be much closer than many are anticipating. The Commanders have rolled to a 2-0 record and get to play the Bills at home. Antonio Gibson has sort of faded into the background. And with Sam Howell under center, the offense has leaned heavily on the second-year running back. Robinson should continue his electric 2023 campaign and easily eclipse this line.
Garrett Wilson OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Despite Aaron Rodgers going down with a season-ending injury, Wilson is still averaging 58.5 yards per game with Zach Wilson under center. Although he only finished with two receptions in Week 2, it was encouraging to see Wilson target him eight times. Despite only corralling two of those eight targets, Wilson still managed to produce 83 yards and a touchdown in New York’s 30-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
Week 3 should be interesting as the Jets face a Patriots defense that has always done whatever it can to limit the opposing top wideout’s production. Although New England held Tyreek Hill in check last week (five receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown), the Dolphins had so much success on the ground that they didn’t need to rely too heavily on the passing game. However, the Patriots were lit up by A.J. Brown in Week 1 to the tune of seven receptions on 10 targets for 79 yards.
The Jets are going to look to run the ball down New England’s throats. But that doesn’t mean they are going to abandon the passing game. The Wilson-to-Wilson connection has built some chemistry. Although Week 3 presents a tough matchup, I expect the second-year receiver to produce his biggest game of the season against his AFC East rivals.
Kyle Pitts OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards (-119)
Pitts has had a quiet start to the season despite Atlanta’s 2-0 record. He has only accumulated four catches for 59 yards. However, Pitts and the Atlanta passing attack get their juiciest matchup yet against a Detroit Lions defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Last week, the three Seattle tight ends (Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly) combined for nine catches and 142 yards. In Week 1, the Lions were fortunate enough to avoid having to play against Travis Kelce but Kansas City’s Noah Gray and Blake Bell combined for five catches for 43 yards and one trip to the end zone.
Atlanta doesn’t have any other tight ends on the roster that should demand a significant target share and the Falcons need to get their talented third-year playmaker more involved if they have any chance at making a postseason run. Look for Arthur Smith to dial up some plays to get Pitts more involved right out of the gate.
This could be the breakout game that Pitts fans have been waiting for as Desmond Ridder seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the pocket. Atlanta is still going to be a run-heavy team with Bijan Robinson but Pitts and Drake London should help open up the passing game. And with the Lions expected to win this game, Pitts may see some usage during garbage time as well. The game flow and matchup are in Pitts’ favor in Week 3.
