Week 2 NFL Player Props
Week 1 is in the books and it’s that time of week to start pinpointing the best prop bets to exploit heading into Sunday’s slate of Week 2 action. Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find FullTime Fantasy‘s best Week 2 NFL Player Props!
Justin Herbert OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)
Last Sunday, despite putting up 34 points, Herbert only managed to throw a single touchdown pass in the Chargers’ high-scoring loss to the Miami Dolphins. However, that was largely due to the fact that Miami struggled to contain the run as Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combined for over 200 yards on the ground.
This week, the Chargers will employ a much different game plan against a Tennessee Titans defense that ranked first in rushing yards and yards per carry but ranked last in the NFL in passing yards allowed. That trend appears to be continuing in 2023 as the Titans didn’t do much to stop Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints’ passing attack in Week 1. Jamaal Williams only tallied 45 rushing yards but Carr threw the ball for 300+ yards.
With all of his weapons healthy in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Quentin Johnston, Gerald Everett, and perhaps the best pass-catching running back in the NFL outside of Christian McCaffrey in Ekeler, expect Herbert to let it fly in Week 2 after a disappointing loss in the season opener. Herbert will find a way to get the ball in the end zone at least twice.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 295.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After a brutal primetime loss to the Detroit Lions following their 2022 Super Bowl run, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be ready to rock and roll in Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. After starting the season 1-0, the Chiefs will look to get back on track. Especially with the looming return of Travis Kelce. Andy Reid likely spent all week helping Mahomes get on the same page as his pass catchers as Week 1 looked pretty ugly. I’m looking at you, Kadarius Toney.
Last year against the Jags, Mahomes let the defense up to the tune of 331 yards. With Jacksonville’s offense even better than they were last season, Mahomes will have to keep his foot on the gas. Look for him to easily surpass 300 passing yards as the Chiefs cruise to their first victory of the season.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Although Stevenson was less than impressive in New England’s 25-20 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, he did log 74% of the team’s offensive snaps and is the clear workhorse despite Ezekiel Elliott’s presence. Although he only managed 25 rushing yards on 12 attempts, he did add six receptions for an additional 64 receiving yards through the air.
This week, the Patriots get a much easier matchup on the offensive side of the ball. They get to go up against Miami. That Dolphins’ defense was just shredded by Los Angeles. The Chargers averaged 5.8 yards per carry on their way to a whopping 233 rushing yards in Week 1.
The Patriots will likely look to employ a similar run-heavy approach against a team that allowed the most EPA per rush (0.322), the highest rushing success rate (66.7%), and the team that graded as the sixth-worst run defense, according to Pro Football Focus.
Stevenson should see close to 20 touches in this one and I wouldn’t expect him to average a mere two yards per carry in Week 2. Look for Rhamondre SZN to begin in Week 2. Pump the Over on this one.
Calvin Ridley OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Ridley lit the league on fire in his 2023 debut after missing the last couple of years of action. The newest addition to the Jaguars’ offense compiled eight receptions for 101 yards in Jacksonville’s Week 1 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Trevor Lawrence is the best quarterback Ridley has ever played with and the former All-Pro receiver logged 97% of the team’s offensive snaps.
This week, the Jaguars take on the defending Super Bowl champs, the Kansas City Chiefs. Last week, the Chiefs allowed Amon-Ra St. Brown to surpass his receiving yard prop line as the dynamic pass catcher finished with seven receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown. Not to mention, L’Jarius Sneed is the best defensive back that the Chiefs have, and he will be lined up in the slot where Christian Kirk played exclusively. This bodes well for Ridley as he is playing in a game with the highest total of the week (51 points) and has a favorable matchup on the outside.
Considering this game should be a shootout with Travis Kelce expected to return to the Chiefs’ offense, Ridley will have every opportunity to surpass his total, especially if Lawrence can complete 75% of his passes as he did in Week 1. Smash the Over on this one.
Davante Adams OVER 72.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
The Raiders’ passing attack has a touch matchup looming in Week 2 against Tre’Davious White and the Buffalo Bills’ secondary, however, I expect Adams to put up huge numbers. Especially if Jakobi Meyers is unable to suit up after being in concussion protocol and not practicing all week. If he’s unable to go, Adams could see close to 15 targets.
Against Patrick Surtain and the Denver Broncos, Adams hauled in six receptions for 66 yards. Something tells me that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be zoned in on his top target on Sunday against one of the top teams in the AFC. Josh Allen will bounce back and the Raiders will be forced to play catch up, which should result in plenty of opportunities for the veteran wideout.
Robert Woods OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bobby Trees was surprisingly the Texans’ top receiver in Week 1, finishing with six receptions for 57 yards in Houston’s Week 1 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Woods ran more routes than any other member of the Texans (36) and also saw 10 targets from rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Houston doesn’t have a ton of trustworthy options in the passing game so the veteran should continue to get looks as the Texans look to defeat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
Also, it doesn’t hurt that Indy allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts in the first week of the season. The Colts don’t have a talented secondary (Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr. were both undrafted free agents) and although Nico Collins will demand a decent amount of attention after seeing 11 targets last week, I’m trusting Woods to clear this prop with just three or four receptions.
Darren Waller OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
As a Giants fan, I’m not sure what to make of Big Blue’s 40-0 season-opening loss to the Dallas Cowboys in their own stadium. The offensive line was absolutely atrocious and Daniel Jones was the Cowboys’ punching bag all night long. Fortunately for the Giants, they have a juicy matchup against what could be the worst team in the entire NFL, the Arizona Cardinals.
For a few years now, the Cardinals have been absolutely dreadful against opposing tight ends. Although they only allowed Logan Thomas to catch four balls for 43 receiving yards in Week 1, Waller and Jones are a much better duo than Sam Howell and Thomas. The Giants know that if the passing game is going to work, Waller must play a pivotal role and the team is going to do what they can to get him the ball in open space. Expect the Giants to bounce back in Week 2, largely due to a comeback performance from the veteran tight end. Take the Over.
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