NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Commanders – 7

Over/Under: 39.0

The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is on the PUP list with no clear timetable to return to the starting lineup. Incoming rookie Clayton Tune looks poised to start in Week 1 after getting drafted in the fifth round this year. James Conner is the lead back with minimal competition for snaps. Zack Ertz is trending toward a sit in Week 1. Arizona will feature Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore in the passing game. They hope Michael Wilson can handle their WR3 role at some point in the season.

Washington has a top defense with a developing quarterback (Sam Howell) who will be making his second career start. The change at offensive coordinator could lead to a bump in production at running back in the passing game, rewarding Antonio Gibson. Brian Robinson is their power running with the inside track to score in close. A turf toe issue may keep Terry McLaurin on the sideline in Week 1. For now, Jahan Dotson assumes the lead wide receiver role, and Curtis Samuel gets a bump in chances.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Arizona Cardinals

Clayton Tune

• Clayton Tune was Arizona’s shot at a future quarterback. His mechanics need work to improve his accuracy under duress and on the move. He can read defenses, but his arm doesn’t always have the fire to win in tight coverage. 
• Over five seasons in college, Tune passed for 11,996 yards with 104 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. He was also active in the run game (412/1,256/15). In his senior year, Tune gained 4,618 combined yards with 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His production rushing the ball peaked in 2022 (128/544/2).
• I don’t know if he will start with the Cardinals signing Joshua Dobbs and releasing Colt McCoy.
• Washington had a league-average defense vs. quarterbacks in 2022 (18.84 FPPG).
• Tune has to walk before being considered to start any format. I have a feeling he will make progress as the season moves on if Arizona gives him starting snaps.

James Conner

• Conner finished 19th in running back scoring (201.20) in PPR formats while playing in 13 games last season. A rib issue knocked him out for three weeks early in the year, and in Week 18, he had a shin injury. 
• From Week 10 to Week 17, Conner delivered seven productive games (23.60, 13.40, 22.00, 23.40, 18.10, 25.00, and 14.00 fantasy points). He rushed for more than 100 yards in one matchup (25/120 with three catches for 20 yards and one score).
• The Cardinals will give him 15+ touches with some value in catches. The lack of quarterback play is a significant concern for his scoring ability, and Washington had the second-best defense vs. running backs in 2022.

Marquise Brown

• Over his first six games with the Cardinals, he caught 43 of his 64 targets for 485 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 18.25 fantasy points in PPR formats. 
• Unfortunately, Brown sat out the following five weeks with a left foot injury. Without Kyler Murray behind center, his production (24/224 – 9.3 yards per catch) wasn’t worth starting value over his final six starts.
• He had an undisclosed injury in August, but Brown should play in Week 1.
• Wide receivers had 188 catches for 2,401 yards and 14 touchdowns on 298 targets vs. the Commanders last season.
• I don’t trust him or the quarterback play in Arizona out of the gate.

Rondale Moore

• His 2022 season started with three missed games with a hamstring injury. Moore shined in five matchups (7/68, 6/49, 7/92/1, 8/69, and 9/94) over his first seven weeks back in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, a groin issue ended his year after two snaps in Week 11. He had sports hernia surgery in December.
• Moore tends to be a possession-type wideout, with only two touchdowns over his first 22 games in the NFL.
• His target number to be playable this week is 16.00 fantasy points.

Trey McBride

• I’m going with the assumption that Zach Ertz won’t play.
• In his final season in college, McBride finished with 90 catches for 1,121 yards on 134 targets, but he only scored one touchdown. 
• Over the previous two seasons, over 16 combined games, McBride had 67 catches for 890 yards and eight scores on 88 targets (76.1% catch rate). His 2021 season started with three active games (13/116, 8/114/1, and 9/109) while having a floor of six catches in 11 of his 12 starts.
• In his rookie season of relief of Zach Ertz, McBride caught 29 of his 39 targets for 265 yards and one score. His best stats came in Week 15 (4/55) and Week 17 (7/78/1).
• Tight ends had 61 catches for 622 yards and five touchdowns on 97 targets against Washington.
• Someone in Arizona has to catch the ball, giving their low-priced tight end a chance to fill his salary bucket if he hits pay dirt.

Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the Washington Commanders Defense:

• The Commanders jumped to fourth in passing yards allowed (3,252) with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. They sacked the quarterback 43 times.
• If DE Chase Young can reach his potential, Washington will continue to show growth on the defensive side of the ball. 
• Their defensive line is loaded with talent, with an improving secondary. The second level of the defense only needs to fill the run lanes and add some value to the pass rush.

Sam Howell

• Howell threw 92 touchdowns over three seasons at North Carolina while gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt. In 2021, he improved dramatically in the run game (183/828/11 – 4.5 yards per rush). 
• Howell finished his college career with 10,283 passing yards, but his passing touchdowns declined each season (38, 30, and 24) while only tossing 23 interceptions.
• In his rookie season, The Commanders only had Howell on the field for one game (204 combined yards with two touchdowns and one interception). Four of his 11 completions gained 20 yards or more. 
• The keys to Washington’s offense are in the hands of Howell. He has a slickness to his movements with the look of a competitive passer in the NFL. 
• The Commanders have three viable options at wide receiver, and Dyami Brown had his best seasons (51/1,034/12 and 55/1,099/8) at college with Howell throwing him the ball. 
• He projects as a backend QB2 in the fantasy market. I’m intrigued, but Washington will taper his passing chances in his rookie season.
• Arizona finished 23rd defending quarterbacks (20.93 FPPG) last year, with failure in four games (38.50, 30.05, 33.15, and 31.50). 
• If Terry McLaurin played, I’d be more interested in him. His salary does keep in the mix, but Washington should feature the run game in this matchup.

Brian Robinson

• There is something to be said for a running back gaining experience in touches. Robinson is a power back with the ability to make yards after contact. He runs with patience while having the drive to cut fast into daylight at the line of scrimmage. When asked to pass block, Robinson understands his role and stays in tune with his quarterback to become a late passing option out of the backfield.
• An unfortunate gunshot injury led to Robinson missing the first four games with Washington. By his second game back in action, the Commanders gave him a bulk of carries, leading to a productive final 11 weeks (196/775/2 with nine catches for 60 yards and one score). 
• He gained more than 100 yards in three consecutive starts from Week 12 to Week 14. His season ended with a knee injury in Week 18. 
• Robinson should be the early down-volume runner with scoring upside. Washington will use Antonio Gibson on many plays, limiting his production.
• The Cardinals ranked 29th defending running backs last season.
• In the mix for his salary level, as I expect one of the Commanders’ back to play well this week.

Antonio Gibson

• Gibson failed to take advantage of the four games (56/179/2 – 3.2 yards per rush with 16 catches for 134 yards) missed by Brian Robinson to start 2022, leading to him working as Washington’s RB2 over his final 11 matchups (missed Week 17 and 18 with knee and foot issues). 
• He finished the year with 899 combined yards with five touchdowns and 46 catches (28th in running back scoring in PPR leagues). Gibson had foot surgery after the season.
• Running backs had 101 catches for 810 yards and six touchdowns on 120 targets against Arizona. His best value should come.
• When Washington trails, which shouldn’t be in the cards this week.

Terry McLaurin

• A turf toe injury should limit McLaurin early in the season, making him a challenging play in any format. 
• I have him listed as out in the first run of the projections.

Jahan Dotson

• Washington gave him WR2 in three of his first four games, leading to 12 catches for 152 yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets. A hamstring issue pushed him to the sidelines from Week 5 to Week 9, followed by empty stats over the next three games (1/14, 1/16, and 0/0). 
• Dotson played well over his final five starts (5/54/1, 4/105/1, 6/76/1, 3/37, and 3/72).
• Wide receivers had 212 catches for 2,287 yards and 11 touchdowns on 328 targets vs. the Cardinals in 2022.
• He is the top scoring threat for Washington in the passing game, and Dotson should lead the team in catches and receiving yards.
• Worth a shot based on his favorable salary.

Curtis Samuel

• In 2022, he played in all 17 games, leading to 843 combined yards with five touchdowns and 64 catches. His value in the run game (38/187/1) helped him finish 32nd in wide receiver scoring (177.90) in PPR formats. 
• His best opportunity came over the first three weeks (22.20, 22.90, and 13.10 fantasy points – 8/55/1, 7/78/1, and 7/48 with eight rushes for 51 yards). 
• Over his final six games, Samuel posted three empty scores in fantasy points (1.30, 1.60, and 1.00) despite being on the field for more than 60% of the Commanders’ plays.
• Samuel is a better player than his salary paints, and the injury to McLaurin gives him an improved opportunity in Week 1. 
• Viable based on his lower-tiered salary.

Logan Thomas

• Last season, Thomas missed three games with a calf injury. The Commanders had him on the field for 57.2 of their plays as their TE1. He failed to regain his previous form, highlighted by his 8.3 yards per catch and three games (3/37/1, 5/65, and 6/56) with more than 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Thomas finished the season with 39 catches for 323 yards and one touchdown.
• Thomas battled a calf injury in August, but he should play in Week 1. 
• I can’t trust him at all.

Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the Arizona Cardinals Defense:

• Arizona fell to 14th in rushing yards allowed (2,016 yards) while allowing 21 touchdowns. Ball carriers gained only 4.5 yards per rush, with 26.2 runs per game.
• The Cardinals slipped to 24th in passing yards allowed (3,915) with 29 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Their defense delivered 36 sacks while quarterbacks gained 7.1 yards per pass attempt.
• This defense has competitive players in their secondary, but a ton of tackles by their safeties and cornerback suggest weakness at linebacker. I don’t see any star players with plenty of questions at defensive tackle and linebacker.

More Week 1 Previews

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Texans at Ravens

Bengals at Browns

Jaguars at Colts

Buccaneers at Vikings

Titans at Saints

49ers at Steelers

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