NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5

Over/Under: 41.0

The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting the year third on the depth chart. San Francisco has the best all-around running back (Christian McCaffrey) in the game, with three productive pieces (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle) at receiver. Their star DE Nick Bosa wants a new deal, and he has yet to report to the team. The 49ers need his pass rush (34 sacks over his last 33 games) to maintain their high ranking on defense.

The Steelers struggled to score points (308), with Kenny Pickett assuming the quarterback duties after Ben Roethlisberger retired. The Steelers’ offense has depth at running back (Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren) and the talent to move the ball via the pass with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. The key to all players is increased production by Pickett.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy

• Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts at Iowa. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.
• Over his eight full starts, Purdy attempted more than 30 passes in only two games (MIA – 37 and @LV – 35). He had a floor of two touchdowns in his first in seven matchups while delivering one impact game (348/4). 
• His completion rate (67.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.1) rank highly in the NFL. 
• Purdy saw his season end in the Super Bowl due to an injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February.
• Pittsburgh was about league-average defending quarterbacks (19.59 FPPG) last season, but two offenses posted impact games (32.40 and 32.25). They played without their top pass rusher (T.J. Watt) for seven games.
• Despite his success last year, Purdy was a modified game manager. He has to prove his elbow is healthy before riding him in the daily space. The 49ers have plenty of receiving weapons, so I can’t totally write him off in Week 1.

Christian McCaffrey

• Over his final nine games with the 49ers, McCaffrey gained 1,066 yards with 10 touchdowns and 39 catches, an average of 18.94 FPPG in PPR formats.
• His salary requires 35.00 fantasy points at DraftKings for him to be worth his investment. He posted one impact game (40.60), with three high-floor showings (28.60, 29.30, and 31.30).
• Pittsburgh gave up six receiving scores to running back in 2022, but they limited the damage in catches (64) and receiving yards (523). Their defense held backs to 4.2 yards per carry with seven scores on the ground.
• McCaffrey isn’t the workhorse he once was with the Panthers, but he will get plenty of chances to make plays. His pass-catching ability set a nice floor while needing multiple scores to pay off his top-tier salary.

Elijah Mitchell

• Over his four seasons at Louisiana, Mitchell had success on the ground (527/3,267/41 – 6.2 yards per rush) with some chances in the passing game (49/597/5). He brings plus speed and explosiveness to the 49ers’ offense.
• Last year, Mitchell missed 12 games with knee and groin injuries. The 49ers gave him 67 touches over his six matchups with Christian McCaffrey on the field, leading to 333 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches.
• Overpriced unless the 49ers play from the lead and Mitchell gets a ton of mop-up action in the second half.

Deebo Samuel

• Last year, Samuel missed four games with knee and ankle issues. The 49ers continued to give him chances in the run game (42/232/3), but he lost his big play ability in the passing game (11.3 yards per catch – only one catch gained 40 yards or more). 
• His receiving production (56/632/2) projected over 17 weeks comes to 73 catches for 826 yards and three scores. Samuel gained more than 100 yards in two contests (6/115/1 and 6/133/1).
• Samuel emerged as a beast in his third season in the NFL in 2021. He busted out of the gate with four impact games (9/189/1, 8/157/2, 7/100/1, and 6/171) over the first seven weeks (44/819/4). 
• The 49ers transitioned him into a rotational role in the run game in Week 10 in 2021, leading to sensational success on the ground (80/480/8) over his final 11 starts (including the postseason). The downside of his change in workload was fewer chances in the passing game (54 targets – 4.9 per game). As a result, Samuel only had two showings of value (5/97/1 and 9/159) after Week 9.
• The addition of Christian McCaffrey pushes Samuel to a minimal role in the run game.
• I have him ranked (32nd) below his ADP (18th wide receiver) in the high-stakes market. Despite my outlook, Samuel has electric upside if given enough chances.
• Wide receivers had 182 receptions for 2,644 yards (14.5 yards per catch) and 17 touchdowns on 314 targets vs. the Steelers in 2022.

Brandon Aiyuk

• In 2022, Aiyuk emerged as the 49ers’ top receiving option, leading to career highs in catches (78), receiving yards (1,015), touchdowns (8), and targets (114). 
• His two impact games came in Week 6 (8/83/2) and Week 17 (9/117/1). He had a floor of 10.00 fantasy points in 10 other matchups.
• Aiyuk was the 16th highest-scoring (228.80) fantasy wide receiver last year.
• He needs seven catches for 70 yards and a score to reach his fantasy bucket.

George Kittle

• Kittle started last year with two missed games with a groin issue. 
• Over his first 11 starts, he caught 42 of his 59 targets for 500 yards and four touchdowns. 
• The change to Brock Purdy at quarterback led to Kittle shining over his final four weeks (4/93/2, 6/120/2, 4/23/1, and 4/29/2) of the regular season. 
• His other three games of value came in Week 6 (8/83), Week 7 (6/98/1, and Week 11 (4/84/2).
• Kittle has been battling a groin injury this summer, but he should play in Week 1,
• Tight ends had 85 catches for 897 yards and four touchdowns over 123 targets against Pittsburgh.
• His scoring ability is a plus, and Kittle does have potential.

Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: 

• The Steelers’ defense has an impact player at all three levels. Closing the passing window will be key to their secondary slowing down top wideouts. Pittsburgh needs Benton to emerge and Highsmith to repeat his breakthrough success to push higher up the defensive rankings.
• Pittsburgh climbed from last in the NFL vs. the run (2,483 yards) to eighth in 2022 (1,838 yards) while allowing a league-low seven rushing scores (tied with the Patriots and 10 fewer than in 2021). Ball carriers gained 4.2 yards per rush.
• They dipped to 19th in passing yards allowed (3,779) with 29 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. The Steelers’ defense had 40 sacks, down from 55 in 2021.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Kenny Pickett

• • In his rookie season, he made 13 starts while failing to deliver impact stats in any matchup. Pickett passed for more than 300 yards in Week 5 (327/0) while attempting over 40 passes in three contests. 
  • Over his final eight games, he averaged only 180 passing yards with five touchdowns and one interception. His value as a runner (55/237/3) was better than expected. 

• His chemistry with Diontae Johnson (52.9% catch rate) and finding him in the end zone (no touchdowns) was a problem. 

• Pittsburgh has a pass-catching back plus six other viable receiving options, giving Pickett a chance to be much better in 2023. His first step in his growth is finishing drives with passing touchdowns in the red zone.

• The 49ers finished 10th in quarterback defense (17.48 FPPG), with failure in two games (32.15 and 31.65 fantasy points).
• This matchup looks poor, but the Steelers have receiving talent, and the 49ers may force the issue on the scoreboard.

Najee Harris

• Harris came into last season with some concerns about a foot injury. He ended up playing all 17 games, leading to 1,263 combined yards, 10 touchdowns, and 41 catches. His yards per rush have been an issue in back-to-back years (3.9 and 3.8), along with his yards per catch (6.3 and 5.6). 
• Harris gained more than 20 yards on only one of his 313 touches. He finished 14th in running back scoring (225.50) in PPR formats while reaching 20.00 fantasy points in only two outings (27.60 and 20.30). 
• Harris scored seven of his 10 touchdowns over his final eight games.  He had a gamer mentality based on playing through multiple injuries in 2022 (foot, knee, oblique, and hip).
• The Steelers have tried to improve their offensive line through the draft and free agency over the past two seasons. The best help for Harris should be the addition of LT Broderick Jones this year.
• Pittsburgh will rotate in Jaylen Warren this year, lowering the ceiling of Harris.
• San Francisco had the best fantasy league defense against running backs last year.

Jaylen Warren

• Pittsburgh signed Warren as an undrafted free agent in 2022 after showing growth in his play in his final year at Oklahoma State (256/1,216/11 with 25 catches for 225 yards). 
• The Steelers gave him a minimal role over his first four games (77 combined yards and seven catches on 17 touches) before showing a spark in a chaser game vs. the Bills (63 yards and four catches). 
• Warren gained more than 75 combined yards in Week 8 and Week 10 with a combined six catches. His season ended with a bump in touches (43) over the final four matchups (35/173/1 and eight catches for 47 yards). 
• Overall, Pittsburgh had Warren on the field for 29.4% of their plays compared to 65.7 by Najee Harris.
• In the preseason, Warren drew more attention by hitting a 62-yard touchdown, leading to six rushes for 89 yards and two scores over his three matchups.
• His salary looks too high for his 40% opportunity out of the gate.

Diontae Johnson

• Other than touchdowns (0), Johnson posted almost the same season in 2020 (88/923/7) as last season (86/882) with a similar opportunity in targets (144 and 147). However, his catch rate (58.5) regressed in 2022 while lowering his drops to six. 
• He gained sixty yards or fewer in 12 of his 17 starts, with his best production coming in Week 15 (10/98). The Steelers gave him a career-high seven rushes, but they ended with only 25 yards of offense.
• Wide receivers had 222 catches for 2,847 yards and 16 touchdowns 335 vs. the 49ers.
• Johnson will get his catches, but he needs touchdowns and more big plays to pay off. 

George Pickens

• In his rookie season, Pickens caught 52 of his 84 targets for 825 yards and five touchdowns. The Steelers barely got him the ball over his first three games (1/3, 1/23, and 3/39). 
• His stock started to soar in three of his next four matchups (6/102, 6/83, and 6/61/1), but the Eagles shut him out the following week on three targets. 
• Pittsburgh gave Pickens six or fewer targets in each of his final nine starts, leading to only three games of value (4/83/1, 5/57/1, and 3/72/1) despite gaining 17.8 yards per catch.
• He offers more scoring and explosiveness than Johnson, but he’ll have fewer chances to post a winning score.

Pat Freiermuth

• Despite a missed game and two zeros games in Week 15 and Week 18, Freiermuth set career-highs in catches (63), receiving yards (732), and targets (98) while bumping his yards per catch to 11.6 yards (3.3 yards more than 2021). 
• He had four games (7/85, 8/75, 8/79, and 7/66) with seven catches or more but eight matchups with six targets or fewer. 
• Tight ends had 75 catches for 676 yards and three touchdowns on 109 targets against San Francisco.
• Freiermuth doesn’t have a great matchup, but his salary is low enough at DraftKings to keep in the mix. I’m going to fade him at FanDuel.

Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the San Francisco 49ers Defense:

• San Francisco climbed to second in rushing yards allowed (1,321). They gave up 3.4 yards per rush, with ball carriers scoring 11 touchdowns while averaging 22.9 carries per game. 
• The 49ers fell to 21st in passing yards allowed (3,789). Quarterbacks gained 6.9 yards per pass attempt with 20 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. Their defense finished with 44 sacks.
• Their defense needs Nick Bosa on the field to shorten the passing window. If the 49ers don’t work out his contract details by Week 1, it will be a positive for the Steelers’ passing game.
• The defensive line sets the tone for the 49ers, highlighted by the play of Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave. They also have a top player at the second and third levels of their defense. I expect a bump in sacks while holding offenses to low points.

More Week 1 Previews

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Jaguars at Colts

Buccaneers at Vikings

Titans at Saints

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