NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bengals – 2

Over/Under: 47.5

The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023 is a return to the Super Bowl while bringing home a championship to their fans. In the offseason, Cincinnati tried to upgrade their tight end position (Irv Smith). To continue their rise in the AFC, their defense must stop offenses in the most critical part of the game – the fourth quarter.

It’s showtime for Deshaun Watson after the Browns paid him $230 million in 2022. Cleveland has a stud running back with Nick Chubb, with improving depth and upside at wide receiver – Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cedric Tillman, and David Bell. In addition, the Browns have a developing tight end (David Njoku).

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow

• Last year, Burrow scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four of his first 12 starts (35.50, 44.05, 32.25, and 32.90). The Browns kept him in check (17.80 and 19.95 fantasy points) in his two matchups.
• In his rookie season, he posted two stellar games (335/3 and 440/4) against Cleveland.
• The Browns had the best quarterback fantasy defense (15.00 FPPG) in 2022, one notch above Cincinnati’s pass defense.
• The key for Burrow in this matchup is a longer pass window.
• His calf issue appears to be healed, but the fantasy market needs to see him in game action before trusting that Burrow is on top of his game.
• His matchup suggests fading him, but Cinci had too many receiving weapons to avoid Burrow. In addition, the Browns should score in this matchup.
• He needs at least 300 yards with three touchdowns to be in the mix in the daily games in Week 1.

Joe Mixon

• Mixon’s ticket came in only once last season (Week 6 – 55.10 fantasy points), helping me win $250,000 at DraftKings. He scored between 17.00 and 21.50 fantasy points) in six matchups, none of which would support his current salary.
• The Bengals will rotate in a second running back, but Mixon may have a more significant role out of the gate.
• Burrow will use his running backs in the passing game close to the goal line – 103/796/7 on 132 targets. Their backs had the third most catches (103) in the league in 2022.
• Three times his salary seems reasonable, leaving some upside if Mixon hits on a second touchdown or a bunch of receptions.
• Viable rotational running back upside in Week 1.

Ja’Marr Chase

• Chase played well in his only game (10/119/1) vs. the Browns last season. The previous season, he struggled in both matchups (6/49 and 2/26 with a combined 17 targets).
• Wide receivers only had 169 catches for 2,258 yards and 15 touchdowns on 284 targets vs. Cleveland in 2022. The Jets (14/243/3) had the most success in Week 2.
• CB Denzel Ward comes off a down season after ranking well in coverage over his first four years with the Browns. He should see a lot of Chase in this match.
• Chase is a beast, a player who can post an impact game any week. Best to have some shares as the data suggests “not ideal,” fitting the contrarian play due to his higher salary.

Tee Higgins

• Higgins has all the tools to be a top-12 wideout in the NFL, but he must put in an entire season of games to reach his potential. His stats in 2021 (74/1,091/6) and 2022 (74/1,209/7) were almost identical. Last year, Higgins was on the field one snap in Week 14 vs. the Browns while also coming up empty in Week 1 (2/27) and Week 18 (1/7). 
• In his game in Cleveland, he had three catches for 49 yards and one score. He has yet to have an impact showing vs. the Browns (3/35, 5/71/1, and 6/78).
• To be in play, Higgins needs a 7/100/1 type showing. His talent says, “yes,” but his resume in this matchup suggests he is overpriced…sometimes an island is an excellent place to be in the daily games.

Tyler Boyd

• Boyd continues to have a fading opportunity with the Bengals after the arrival of Chase and Higgins. Last year, he averaged five targets a game while offering only two weeks of value (4/105/1 and 8/155/1). 
• He also had an early exit (two plays) in Week 14 vs. the Browns. In his other matchup against Cleveland, Boyd had three catches for 38 yards and one score.
• A 4/60/1 game is within reach if game flow breaks his way. I would only play him in a CLE/CIN game stack.

Irv Smith

• Smith has yet to live up to expectations after getting drafted in the second round by the Vikings in 2019 due to some injuries. He missed all of 2021 and nine games last season with knee, thumb, and ankle issues.
• The summer reports have been positive about his play.
• In the first week of any football season, communication can break down at the goal line, giving some tight ends better-than-expected outcomes. The Browns won’t be game-planning to stop Smith, so Joe Burrow may find him on a drive for an easy score.
• Viable cheat tight end for a high-scoring offense. 
• Last year, tight ends had 64 catches for 760 yards and two touchdowns on 106 targets against Cleveland.

Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for Cleveland Browns Defense:

• DE Myles Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the league (32 sacks over the past two seasons). In May, the Browns also traded for Za’Darius Smith (36 sacks over his last 49 starts).
• Cleveland signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson ($57 million) in the offseason to hopefully slow down the run game.
• Slowing down the pass rush will be the key to Joe Burrow solving the Browns’ defense.

Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson

• Watson is the 10th highest salaried quarterback in Week 1 at DraftKings (9th at FanDuel). His last game with more than 25.00 fantasy points came in Week 17 (377/3) in 2020.
• From 2018 to 2020, over 47 starts, he averaged 25.80 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. 
• The Browns go five deep at wide receiver with competitive options at tight end. 
• In his second game back in 2022 at Cincinnati, he gained 309 combined yards with one touchdown. 
• The Bengals held quarterbacks to 15.08 FPPG in 2022 (second-best in the league).
• Watson helps his scoring by being active in the run game.
• I have him rated as strong play at both daily game sites. He has the passing weapons to play off, and the Bengals have the offensive firepower to create a high-scoring battle.

Nick Chubb

• Chubb comes off an excellent season (1,764 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 27 catches), leading to him 16.61 FPPG in PPR formats.
• Despite his success, he only had one impact game (32.30 fantasy points). Chubb gained more than 100 yards in seven matchups while scoring nine times in eight games at home. He played well in Cleveland (23/101/2 with one catch for three yards) vs. the Bengals in 2022.
• Cleveland has a drop-down in talent at RB2, suggesting more chances on passing downs and potential touches each week.
• He needs to score more than 30.00 fantasy points to be an edge for his salary. Tough to dismiss, as Chubb will rank highly heading into Week 1.

Amari Cooper

• Cooper comes off an excellent season (78/1,160/9) despite playing with a below-par quarterback for most of 2022. His best success came at home (49/677/5), highlighted by three games (9/101/1, 7/101/1, and 5/131/1), with the latter coming against the Bengals.
• Deshaun Watson delivered multiple winning seasons for his wideouts over his first four seasons (DeAndre Hopkins – 96/1,378/13, 115,1,572/11, and 104/1,165/7 and Brandin Cooks – 81/1,150/6). 
• From 2017 to 2020, Watson only had one other receiver catch more than 50 passes (Will Fuller – 53/879/8) in a season. 
• Cooper runs good routes with the foundation skill set to post impact games. An 8/90/1 game should be well within reach.

Elijah Moore

• Last year, Moore was a money pit in the DFS market while being a trap in the season-long contests. His best game (6/60) all season delivered only 12.00 fantasy points.
• His drawing card comes from his success over six games in 2021 (34/459/5), highlighted by three outcomes (7/84/2, 8/141/1, and 6/77/1).
• The Browns should use him over the short areas of the field to help pad his catches and targets. I consider the new and improved Will Fuller for Deshaun Watson.
• Based on his salary at DraftKings, he doesn’t need much (7/70) to fill his salary bucket. I view him as an excellent value in a Browns’ passing stack.

Donovan Peoples-Jones

• Peoples-Jones also had a career season (61/838/3) with a subpar quarterback player in Cleveland.
• For his career over 41 games, he averaged 16.0 yards per catch, making him a home run player. 
• The Bengals didn’t match up well with him last year (4/81 and 8/114). 
• I don’t expect impact catches, but I won’t dismiss a 50+ yard score.

David Njoku

• After three quiet seasons (5/41, 19/213/2, and 36/475/4), Njoku started to emerge last year. He set a career high in catches (58) over 14 games with 628 yards and four touchdowns.
• His stock was rising from Week 3 to Week 7 (9/89/1, 5/73, 6/88, 3/58, and 7/71) before being slowed down by an ankle injury. He also picked up a knee issue in late November. Njoku had five catches for 59 yards and one score vs. the Bengals, with Watson behind center.
• Tight ends had 88 catches for 924 yards and three touchdowns on 131 targets against Cincinnati in 2022.
• He falls into a similar category as Elijah Moore in Week 1. One of the two has a high probability of coming in Week 1.

Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the Cincinnati Bengals Defense:

• The Bengals’ defense played better than expected last year, helped by an offense that could control the clock and play from the lead.
• They lacked a pass rush (30 sacks) in 2022, and it won’t get much better this season.
• I also see risk up the middle vs. the run.

More Week 1 Previews

Panthers at Falcons

Texans at Ravens

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