Call them sleepers, flag plants, ‘my guys’, hidden gems, or values. Targeting players who are primed to exceed their current ADP is a tried and true strategy for fantasy success. After writing up our FullTime Fantasy Sleeper of the Year, these are my personal 2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers.
Some of the players may not be considered traditional sleepers. They could be considered closer to draft-day values. However, these are players that I have been consistently targeting in drafts. Also, I believe they will exceed their current value.
For more sleepers to target, check out our deep-sleeper wide receivers, tight ends, and fades. All of this exclusive content is part of the 2023 FullTime Fantasy Draft Kit.
Now, let’s break down the 2023 fantasy football sleepers and values that I am targeting this season.
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) – Herbert isn’t a sleeper by any means. However, I’m including him because I feel Herbert belongs in the conversation of top-tier signal callers. The arrival of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should do wonders for LA’s offense. Volume is already there, but I’m forecasting some positive touchdown regression. Herbert is firmly my QB4, well above his FantasyPros ECR.
Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) – Wilson was my pick for Comeback Player of the Year in my Preseason Pro. Wilson was victimized by terrible coaching last year. The arrival of Sean Payton alleviates that concern. Off the heels of a hot December and fortified by a top-10 schedule, Wilson looks like a top-10 fantasy QB that you can often snag in the last few rounds of fantasy drafts.
Desmond Ridder (Atlanta Falcons) – Is Ridder a breakout candidate with QB1 upside? No. However, I think he is seriously mispriced. Atlanta has the pieces to be a solid offense, anchored by an elite O-line. The volume won’t necessarily be there for Ridder to post overwhelming passing numbers. But, he ran for over 2,100 yards and Cincinnati and is a sneaky bet to be among the top-5 QB rushers this season. He just might be able to supplement his numbers enough to be a solid QB2 in Superflex formats.
Other QB values I like: Aaron Rodgers (NYJ), Jordan Love (GB), Brock Purdy (SF).
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions) – Reach for upside. That’s certainly an attribute Jahmyr Gibbs possesses. The rookie rusher has game-breaking speed. Also, the Lions are already game-planning Gibbs into a very fantasy-friendly role. Gibbs is faster than D’Andre Swift, who put up RB2 PPR points-per-game numbers or better in each of his three seasons in the Motor City. Gibbs has top-5 PPR upside who I would not hesitate to target in the top of Round Three.
James Conner (Arizona Cardinals) – Once Kyler Murray was lost for the season, the Cardinals really relied on Conner as a workhorse. Starting in Week 14, he averaged over 20 touches per game. More importantly, Conner was also an RB1 in December. Murray could miss half the season or more. Also, the club didn’t add any competition via the draft or free agency.
Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs) – Looking back on 2022, Pachecho scored double-digit fantasy points in each of KC’s final 11 contests. This included the postseason run. He also scored all five of his touchdowns during this stretch. Also, he finished his rookie campaign just a hair under 5.0 yards per carry. Kansas City has rushed for 34 touchdowns in the last two seasons. Pacheco should be the favorite for most of those goal-line looks. Subsequently, I think he could push for 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit scores.
Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – The Buccaneers won’t throw as many passes sans Tom Brady. However, Baker Mayfield does target his running backs a lot. Plus, White saw featured-back-type usage in the preseason. Tampa is projected to win the fewest games in the NFC. However, that will lead to plenty of favorable game scripts for White as an outlet receiver. He’s a dark horse to rank in the top five of running back targets this season.
Ezekiel Elliott (New England Patriots) – This isn’t without risk, but I’m significantly higher on Zeke than the consensus. Bill O’Brien should be a vast improvement for New England’s offense. That will lead to more sustained drives and scoring. Elliott ranked second in the NFL with 12 red-zone TDs in 2022. I picture a LeGarrette Blount-type role for Elliott. However, Zeke can actually catch passes, so a path to RB3/Flex value is there.
More RBs to target: Antonio Gibson & Brian Robinson (WAS), Tank Bigsby (JAC), Tyjae Spears (TEN), Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL), Justice Hill (BAL), Deneric Prince (KC), Evan Hull, Deon Jackson, & Zack Moss (IND).
Wide Receivers
Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers) – It’s important to take some shots in fantasy drafts. Watson showed his potential in the second half of last season. Above, you’ll notice I’m high on QB Jordan Love. That’s why I feel Watson’s immense upside, which we’ve already seen, is worth targeting in the third or fourth round. Plus, Green Bay boasts the No. 2 easiest schedule for wideouts in 2023.
Diontate Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers) – Johnson has averaged over 135 targets over the past three seasons. Many people see that WR32 finish for Johnson and are more enamored with the highlight reel plays from teammate George Pickens. However, a measly four touchdowns would have pushed Johnson into the top 25 last season. He ranked 10th with 18 red-zone targets and was simply one of the unluckiest wideouts in football. Although I loved his value more when he was going two rounds later, Johnson is one of my most-rostered players in 2023.
Gabe Davis (Buffalo Bills) – I was off Davis last August and felt vindicated. However, I love the value this season. Davis is entrenched as the WR2 in a top-5 offense. Although he didn’t live up to last year’s unrealistic expectations, Gavis was still solid. He finished the season as WR35 and played most of the year with an injured foot. Davis is now available in Round 9 or Round 10. Often outside of the top 40 wide receivers. I think he pushes for 1,000 yards and 8-plus scores.
Juju Smith-Schuster (New England Patriots) – I firmly believe that Juju Smith-Schuster is a much better NFL wideout than Jakobi Meyers. Meyers was able to post WR29 numbers last season for the Patriots. And that offense was a disaster. With Bill O’Brien calling plays, I’m forecasting New England to be substantially better in 2023. Smith-Schuster is a solid WR2 that generally falls in the WR45-55 range.
Allen Lazard (New York Jets) – Very quietly, Lazard was WR34 last season. He’s also got a proven red-zone rapport with Aaron Rodgers. While Garrett Wilson and Rodgers are the obvious stack to target, Lazard looks like a screaming value at his current ADP.
Curtis Samuel (Washington Commanders) – By most accounts, Sam Howell has looked like the real deal in Washington. That is great news for the Commanders’ offense, which boasts three fantasy-relevant wideouts. Of that group, Samuel is barely being drafted. Despite posting top-30 fantasy numbers with a far inferior QB group last season, Samuel is being drafted like an afterthought.
Marvin Mims (Denver Broncos) – With news of Jerry Jeudy potentially being sidelined for a few weeks, I feel at odds with my Mims pick. First, I have had Mims inside my top 60 for some time. I was inside the top 10 percent of analysts at FantasyPros with my preseason ranking of the rookie wideout. Now, everyone has caught up and Mims is the sleep du jour. Well, the point is to give consistent advice. Mims is an elite prospect and Sean Payton traded up in the draft to make Mims his first Broncos’ draft pick. Mims has top-40 upside in 2023.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cleveland Browns) – During the preseason, Donovan Peoples-Jones remained in Cleveland’s lineup when the club ran two-wide sets. This means the third-year wideout will maintain heavy usage for an offense that should be better with Deshaun Watson under center for 17 games. Peoples-Jones has improved each season. Also, he’s fresh off a WR42 finish a year ago.
Other wideouts to consider: Chris Godwin (TB), Romeo Doubs (GB), Rashee Rice & Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC), Mecole Hardman (NYJ), Jalin Hyatt & Isaiah Hodgins (NYG), Tank Dell (HOU), Deonte Hardy (BUF)
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee (Los Angeles Rams) – The Rams were a disaster last season. However, Higbee managed to post TE6 numbers. Volume was the reason for that finish as Higbee had a career-best 72 grabs and 108 targets. LA didn’t do a lot to address their lack of wide receiver depth. Also, with Matthew Stafford healthy, Higbee looks like a decent bet to contend with top-10 fantasy numbers once again.
Gerald Everett (Los Angeles Chargers – I’m all-in on the Chargers in 2023. My rankings for each member of the LA offense are ahead of ECR. The only exception is first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston. Everett finished last season as a TE1. I project the Chargers to throw the ball close to 700 times. If Everett can maintain a 12-14% target share, he can challenge for top-12 numbers again this season.
Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills) – The addition of much-heralded rookie Dalton Kincaid has caused Knox’s ADP to plummet. However, it sounds like Kincaid is going to be used more as a wide receiver. That will leave plenty of in-line snaps for Knox. Plus. the red-zone rapport he has with Josh Allen isn’t going away. Knox still boasts touchdown upside and is going undrafted in many leagues.
Other tight ends values: Sam LaPorta (DET), Hunter Henry (NE), Tyler Conklin (NYJ), Luke Musgrave (GB)
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