Targeting value by identifying which players will outplay their consensus ADP is the preferred strategy for all fantasy enthusiasts. Securing these sleepers can make all the difference in compiling a championship roster. After much debate, the FullTime Fantasy staff has selected our Fantasy Football Sleeper of the Year.
Before that, check out our breakout, comeback player, and bust for 2023. It’s all part of FullTime Fantasy’s World Famous Draft Kit. It includes access to our Preseason Pro Portal, with exclusive advice and tips from some of the world’s best high-stakes players.
Now, it’s time to reveal FullTime’s Fantasy Football Sleeper of the Year…
Denver Broncos RB Javonte Williams
— Profile —
There’s no denying that Javonte Williams is one of the most talented young running backs in football. Only the serious knee injury that derailed his 2022 campaign causes Williams to be considered a risk. And make no mistake, it was a serious injury. But targeting potential values isn’t without risk.
By all accounts, Williams is way ahead of schedule in his recovery. The club was confident enough to give him some touches in the preseason. That’s a great indicator that Sean Payton feels like his starting running back is doing well.
#Broncos OC Lombardi is pleased by Javonte Williams’ progress and how responded after the game. He addressed his potential workload. #Denver7 pic.twitter.com/SRIjVpuCib
— Troy Renck (@TroyRenck) August 24, 2023W\
Williams also appeared to have good lateral movement and his speed has been on full display all summer. As was the power and tackle-breaking ability that he displayed as a rookie.
Before he got hurt last season, Williams ranked eighth in expected fantasy points per game. Also, in his three full tilts, he averaged 13.4 PPR points per game. That would have ranked inside the top 20 had he stayed healthy.
Throughout his NFL tenure, Williams has showcased three-down ability. Also, he churns out yards after contact and breaks big plays. That explosiveness is enough to overcome potential usage concerns
.— 2023 Usage –
Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi indicated that the Broncos could put Williams on a “pitch count” to open the season. That, and the presence of free-agent addition Samaje Perine are causing some fantasy drafters to avoid Williams.
However, a limited role is probably best for all parties.
It takes time for running backs recovering from ACL injuries to get up to speed. Just look at J.K. Dobbins a year ago. Dobbins was limited to open the season. However, down the stretch, he looked like a completely different runner.
Subsequently, being on a play count could actually help Javonte Williams stay healthy all season.
Also, it would keep him available for the fantasy playoffs. And that’s a major advantage that favors the Denver backfield in 2023.
Looking at FullTime Fantasy’s Strength of Schedule Tool, the Broncos boast the No. 1 schedule for running backs this season.
Denver gets seven games against teams that ranked inside the bottom seven in points allowed to running backs last season.
Also, the schedule looks really appealing down the stretch. That should coincide with when Williams is given a bigger share of the workload.
— Current ADP —
Speaking of that backfield split, both Denver’s backs have appealing ADP values. First, Williams himself regularly slides into the eighth or ninth round in FFWC high-stakes leagues. However, our 2023 fantasy football rankingss are much more generous on Williams’ potential.
Secondly, Samaje Perine’s ADP of 104.0 (RB34) is also exploitable. Perine averaged 23.7 PPR points per game in a three-week stretch in relief of Joe Mixon last season. He’s more than just a change-of-pace option. Denver’s brass sees Perine as a weekly contributor.
Finally, those discounted ADP prices make it quite easy to snag both Denver backs in fantasy drafts.
Under Sean Payton, the Broncos should be far more potent. Also, a staple of Payton-coached teams was heavy usage in the passing game for running backs. Particularly in the red zone.
We love the upside that a healthy Javonte Williams offers in fantasy football leagues. It’s also quite easy to hedge that bet by selecting Samaje Perine a couple of rounds later.
In all, Shawn Childs projects Denver’s offense to accumulate close to 2,000 rushing yards and combine for 18 touchdowns.
And Javonte Williams should lead the way, which is why he’s our Fantasy Football Sleeper of the Year for 2023.
Lastly, If you have time to prepare, make sure you mock in our Mock Draft World Championships. No better way to practice for the real thing.
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