2023 Los Angeles Rams Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Los Angeles Rams Outlook.
— PROJECTIONS —
— Coaching Staff —
Over his first five seasons as the Rams’ head coach, Sean McVay went 55-26, helping Los Angeles to four postseason appearances with a Super Bowl victory in 2021. However, the loss of Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford for eight games led to a poor year (5-12) and some speculation that McVay would leave the coaching ranks to work in the broadcast booth. From 2014 to 2016, he worked as the offensive coordinator for the Redskins. McVay has 14 seasons of experience in the NFL at age 37.
Los Angeles brought in Mike LaFleur to run their offense. He held the Jets’ offensive coordinator job in 2021 and 2022. His NFL coaching career started in 2014 for the Browns. LaFleur enters his 10th season of coaching in pro ball.
LA plummeted to last in the league in offensive yards and 27th in scoring (307 points – 153 fewer than in 2021).
The defense remains in the hands of Raheem Morris, who worked in the Falcons’ system for six seasons with various jobs. His NFL coaching career started in 2002 as their defensive back coach, leading to the Bucs’ head coaching job for three seasons (17-31). Also, Morris had his first defensive coordinator job in Atlanta in 2020 while finishing the season with the interim coaching position (4-7).
The Rams had the league’s top defense in 2020, but they slipped to 21st in points allowed (384) last year while finishing 19th in yards allowed.
— Free Agency —
In the offseason, the Rams moved on from five players on the defensive side of the ball – S Taylor Rapp (BUF), DT A’Shawn Robinson (NYG, S Nick Scott (CIN), DT Greg Gaines (TB), and CB Troy Hill (FA). Los Angeles didn’t add any free agent of impact.
Also, QB Baker Mayfield found a new home in Tampa, and G David Edwards signed with the Buffalo.
— Draft —
In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Rams didn’t have a first-round selection, but they picked up 14 new players in late April. Subsequently, the majority of their choices were dictated to their offensive and defensive lines.
G Steve Avila (2nd) earns his keep with exceptional strength and surprising agility for his size (6’3” and 330 lbs.). He is rarely knocked off his small piece of real estate while having the quickness to reach outside his zone to make plays. Avila would reach a much higher ceiling with better vision and improved hands.
DE Bryon Young (3rd) has an electric combination of speed (4.43 40-yard dash) and power, allowing him to create havoc behind the line of scrimmage. Playing alongside DE Aaron Donald should help him develop his pass-rushing moves while also needing to learn the mental part of the game.
DT Kobie Turner (3rd) delivers impactful blows after the snap, leading to him winning his one-on-one battle on many plays. His lack of size (6’2” and 290 lbs.) leads to losses when faced with multiple blocks and some concern about finishing off plays vs. the run and pass rush.
DE Nick Hampton (5th) offers surprising value in the pass rush when considering his build (6’2” and 235 lbs.) and speed (4.58 40-yard dash). He plays with intensity on all plays until the whistle blows. His run defense is suspect, pointing to a rotational role early in his career. Power blocking will neutralize him at the line of scrimmage.
T Warren McClendon (5th) comes out of a national winning program (Georgia) with a high understanding of his job and work ethic. With no defining edge in his foundation skill set, he tends to get overlooked as a front-line prospect. His will creates a way, and his heart beats a winning song.
DE Ochaun Mathis (6th) doesn’t provide an edge in speed (4.74 40-yard dash) while needing to get stronger to win battles at the line of scrimmage. His quickness and hands create an advantage, but his game has been trending lower since 2020.
DE Desjuan Johnson (7th) is another power defending who comes to the NFL undersized (6’2” and 285 lbs.) for an interior lineman. He handles himself well in vs. strength with some juice to get to the quarterback on inside rushes.
In the fourth round, Los Angeles took their flier on a future quarterback with the addition of Stetson Bennett. He comes to the NFL at age 26 with a pair of national championships. His arm and stature (5’11” and 190 lbs.) don’t project well, but Bennett can read defenses, slide in the pocket, and deliver impactful plays in the biggest moments of the game.
The Rams added TE Davis Allen and WR Puka Nacua in the fifth round.
Allen plays the tight end position like a center in basketball. When the ball goes up, his hands secure many jump balls with flashy movements. On the downside, his route running isn’t where it needs to be, and Allen doesn’t create an edge with his speed (4.84 40-yard dash). His blocking needs work.
Nacua has a questionable release in press coverage while lacking the wheels to be a difference-maker in the deep passing game. His rhythm in route running requires wins with his body. He runs well after the catch with plus hands.
Their other four players drafted were CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB), RB Zach Evans (6th), P Ethan Evans (7th), and S Jason Taylor (7th).
Hodges-Tomlinson is an undersized cornerback (5’8” and 180 lbs.) with plus speed (4.41 40-yard dash). He plays well over the ball when attacking the line of scrimmage. His challenge comes vs. big wideouts with questionable vision. Hodges-Tomlinson likes to hold, leading to some penalties.
RB Zach Evans battled injuries over his first two seasons in college. He runs with power and acceleration, creating long runs via speed and breaking tackles. The next step in his development is finding the balance between patience and attacking the line of scrimmage.
Taylor plays at the highest level off the ball when attacking the line of scrimmage, highlighted by his strength and tackling. His lack of change of direction quickness leads to some blown coverages. He reads play development well, but Taylor rarely recovers from his missed steps.
— Offensive Line —
The Rams climbed to 5th in rushing yards (1,661) with eight touchdowns and eight runs over 20 yards. Their rushers gained only 4.0 yards per carry while averaging 24.2 attempts per game.
Los Angeles fell 26th in passing yards (3,506) with 16 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. They gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Also, the offensive line gave up 59 sacks.
LT Joe Noteboom struggled in pass protection over his six starts last year after taking over for the retired All-Pro Andrew Whitworth. His season ended in Week 7 with an Achilles injury. Over his five-year career, he has had knee (a torn ACL), calf, and pectoral injuries. Noteboom has a lot to prove in 2023.
LG Steve Avila slides into the starting lineup after getting drafted in the second round in 2023. I expect him to hit the ground running in his rookie season.
C Brian Allen missed seven weeks last year with knee, thumb, and calf injuries. In 2021, his run blocking was top-notch, but he allowed too much pressure up the middle.
RG Logan Bruss missed last season with a torn ACL before stepping on the field in his rookie campaign. The Rams drafted him in the third round in 2022.
RT Rob Havenstein had been a top player at his position in most of his eight seasons with the Rams. Despite his success, he does allow some sacks and too much pressure on the quarterback. His run blocking is his biggest area of strength.
This offensive line has risk in pass protection on the outside and up the middle. The success in the run game relies on the development of their young players and the recovery of two linemen coming off injuries. I see a below-par line, leading to small running lanes and too many sacks.
See where the Los Angeles O-line grades out in Jody Smith’s NFL Offensive Line Rankings.
— Offense —
Multiple offensive injuries in 2022 led to the Rams finishing with weaker stats across the board. They ran the ball 43.6% of the time while attempting 76 fewer passes than last season. Los Angeles wants to throw the ball, and they should be better in this area in 2023.
— Quarterback —
Matthew Stafford
Over the five seasons before landing in Los Angeles, Stafford had a league-average feel at quarterback. He tossed 119 touchdowns and 46 interceptions over 72 games while averaging 265.7 passing yards.
Stafford matched his career-high in touchdowns (41) in 2021 with success in his completion rate (67.2). The Rams gave him the receiver talent to challenge defenses deep in the passing game, leading to a league-high 18 completions over 40 yards. He finished with over 300 yards passing in nine of his 20 matchups (including playoffs) and nine games with three scores or more in the regular season. Stafford offered no fantasy help in the run game (32/43).
Last season over nine starts, he delivered one playable game (272/3) in the fantasy markets. His completion rate (68.0) was a career-best, but Stafford had a decline in pass attempts per game (33.7 – 35.4) and an increase in his sack percentage (8.7 – 4.8 in 2021). In addition, his yards per pass attempt (6.9) declined by 1.2 yards from 2021 (8.1). His year ended after Week 11 with a neck injury.
Fantasy Outlook: The Rams have the mystique of being a top offensive team since the arrival of Sean McVay, but I sense 2021 will be the outlier season for Stafford. His offensive line is loaded with question marks. His top receiver comes off a significant injury, and Los Angeles lacks top-level receiving depth behind Cooper Kupp. I see a league-average passer with only matchup value if this offense plays above my outlook in 2023. Stafford will find a way to pass for 4,000 yards with only about 25 scores if Kupp regains his previous form.
Stetson Bennett
Over the past two seasons at Georgia, Bennett passed for 6,986 yards with 56 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his 29 starts. He averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt while adding some help in the run game (113/464/11). Last year, he gained 4,332 combined yards with 37 touchdowns. Bennett comes off two national championships with a 28-1 record in 2021 and 2022.
Fantasy Outlook: The Rams will give him every opportunity to win their backup job in his rookie season.
Other Options: Brett Rypien, Dresser Winn
— Running Backs —
The only bright spot from the Rams’ running backs last year was their 15 touchdowns. They had further regression in their rushing attempts (356), rushing yards (1,493), yards per rush (4.2), catches (49), targets (63), and receiving touchdowns (0). Their backs accounted for 14.1% of the team’s completions and 10% of their receiving yards. Their running backs gained 1,854 combined yards with 15 scores and 49 catches (19.0 FPPG) in PPR formats.
Cam Akers
Over the first 11 weeks in 2020, Akers offered emptiness in the fantasy market leading to 228 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 53 touches while missing two games with a rib injury. However, he flashed in Week 12 (9/84/1), creating a starting job down the stretch. From Week 13 through the second round of the playoffs, the Rams gave Akers 23.8 touches per start over six games. He gained 708 combined yards with three scores and 11 catches, highlighted by two matchups (194 combined yards with two catches and 176 combined yards with one touchdown and two catches). He missed Week 16 with an ankle issue.
Unfortunately, an Achilles injury before the 2021 season led to only eight touches in Week 18 for 13 yards with three catches. The Rams tried to get Akers going in the postseason, but he struggled in the run game (54/151/0 – 2.8 yards per carry) while picking up five catches for 62 yards. He also battled a shoulder issue in the playoffs.
Last season, Akers was a bust in the fantasy market over the first nine games (84/274/1 with two catches for 18 yards) while also missing two games with personal issues (not getting the ball enough). From Week 12 to Week 16, he gained 240 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches. The Rams gave Akers a workhorse opportunity over his final there matchups (23/118/3, 19/123, and 21/04 with six combined catches for 63 yards).
Fantasy Outlook: Los Angeles spoke highly about Akers this spring, suggesting he’ll have an active role in their offense. His finish to 2022 does point to upside this year, but the Rams still don’t throw enough passes to running backs, and their offensive line won’t be an edge. Akers projects as a backend RB2 while ranking 23rd at running back in the high-stakes market. My quick math points to 275+ touches for 1,200 combined yards with six to eight scores and about 25 catches.
Kyren Williams
The Rams drafted Williams in the fifth round in 2022 after two productive years at Notre Dame. He gained 2,799 combined yards with 31 touchdowns and 77 catches while averaging 20.5 touches.
An ankle injury in Week 1 led to Williams missing seven games in his rookie season, with a minimal opportunity over his final nine matchups (35/139 and 9/76). His top output came in Week 12 (60 yards and three catches).
Fantasy Outlook: Williams has the talent to emerge as the Rams’ top pass-catching back, but he’ll be found in the free agent in all formats until positive news is reported about his role this summer.
Zach Evans
Over three seasons in college, Evans gained 2,324 combined yards with 20 touchdowns and 30 catches while averaging 6.9 yards per rush. His best success came in 2022 at Ole Miss (144/936/9 with 12 catches for 119 yards and one score).
Fantasy Outlook: Evans has a sliding, running style that allows him to jump lanes while not losing much of his overall speed. He projects as early down insurance off the bench for the Rams while offering more explosiveness than Cam Akers.
Other Options: Ronnie Rivers
— Wide Receivers —
In 2021, the Rams’ wideout ranked highly in the NFL in all their receiving stats (286/3,964/31 on 431 targets) in their drive to a Super Bowl title. They had a significant step back in catches (216), receiving yards (2,369), touchdowns (13), and targets (332) last year while gaining only 11.0 yards per catch (13.9 in 2021). The ceiling of their production in 2023 requires Cooper Kupp to be healthy all season and two other wide receivers to develop into competitive options for Matthew Stafford.
Cooper Kupp
In his fifth season in the NFL in 2021, Kupp posted the greatest wide receiver season in history. He finished with 145 catches (2nd to Michael Thomas in 2019 – 149) for 1,947 yards (2nd to Calvin Johnson in 2012 – 1,964) and 16 touchdowns, leading to 440.0 fantasy points. Kupp averaged 11.2 targets per game with an impressive 30 catches of 20 yards or more and nine receptions reaching the 40-yard mark. The Rams gave him double-digit chances in 16 of his 20 games (including the postseason). Kupp scored two touchdowns in six matchups, leading to eight impact games (37.30, 30.60, 34.00, 37.60, 31.30, 34.70, 32.30, and 37.20 fantasy points) in PPR leagues. Only once did he score fewer than 17.00 fantasy points. Kupp broke the 100-yard receiving mark 12 times with a floor of seven catches in 17 games.
When the bell rang for last season, Kupp repeated his beast mode over eight games (72/813/6 – 25.06 FPPG in PPR formats). He was on pace to catch 153 passes for 1,728 yards and 13 touchdowns. Even with less than a half-season of stats, Kupp ranked 23rd in wide receiver scoring (200.5). He finished with five impact showings (13/128/1, 11/108/2, 14/122, 7/125/1, and 8/127/1). His season ended in Week 9 with a right high-ankle sprain. Kupp’s only strike last year was a decline in his yards per catch (10.8) from 2021 (13.4).
Fantasy Outlook: Kupp commands a high volume of targets, and Los Angeles doesn’t have anyone else on the roster to lower his opportunity this year. Unfortunately, less-respected receiving talent allows defenses to double Kupp on many more plays. I expect the Rams to use him closer to the line of scrimmage this year due to a suspect offensive line. My starting point will be about 115 catches for 1,300 yards and about 10 scores.
Check out FullTime Fantasy’s Strength of Schedule tool to see how Cooper Kupp’s 2023 playoff slate looks.
Van Jefferson
Over the first month of 2021, Jefferson offered flash value in two games (2/80/1 and 6/90/1). By the end of Week 10, he had 30 catches for 487 yards and three touchdowns on 53 targets. Jefferson scored in his next three matchups (3/93/1, 6/41/1, and 2/58/1), but his role faded over his final seven games (14/202/0 25 targets).
Last year his season started with six missed weeks with a knee injury. Over the final 11 matchups (24/369/3 on 44 targets), Jefferson didn’t have more than three catches in any game while averaging four targets. He scored 10.00 fantasy or more in PPR formats in Week 10 (3/27/1) and Week 14 (2/44/1).
Fantasy Outlook: The Rams have him lined up as their WR2 in 2023 while expecting him to work as a deep threat. His 2022 production (50/802/6) ranked 36th, which should be his starting point this season. He comes off the board in early July as the 78th wide receiver. Next step: 60 catches for 900 yards with five touchdowns, but Jefferson needs to improve his catch rate (55.6 – in 2021 and 2022).
Ben Skowronek
Skowronek offers size (6’3” and 220 lbs.) and route running, but his release, quickness, and overall speed rank below the top players in the NFL. He handles himself well in the blocking game, and his hands grade well. The Rams’ vision with Skowronek could help push the run game forward while bringing sneaky pass-catching value late in games when playing from the lead.
Over his five seasons at Notre Dame, he caught 139 passes for 1,856 yards and 14 touchdowns on 238 targets.
The Rams gave him 20 targets in his rookie season in 2021, leading to 11 catches for 133 yards. Last year, Skowronek pushed his output to 39 catches for 376 yards on 61 targets, with his best showing coming in Week 14 (7/89). His season ended after Week 15 due to a calf injury. Surprisingly, he led the Rams in snaps (696) in 2022.
Fantasy Outlook: His size creates an edge, and Los Angeles should give him plenty of playing time this year. Skowronek will be found in the free-agent pool until he proves his worth on the field.
Demarcus Robinson
Kansas City gave Robinson the second most wide receiver snaps in 2020, mainly due to his ability to help in run blocking. He finished with 45 catches for 466 yards and three touchdowns on 59 targets. He scored over 15.00 fantasy points in only one game (4/63/1).
The Chiefs phased him out in 2021 (25/264/3), leading to him signing with the Ravens last season. Surprisingly, he set career highs in catches (48) and targets (75) with 458 yards and two touchdowns. His best stats came in Week 8 (6/64), Week 11 (9/128), and Week 13 (7/41).
Fantasy Outlook: Robinson gained 10.1 yards per catch over the past three seasons while averaging 3.5 targets per game. He has no starting fantasy value in 2023.
Tutu Atwell
In 2019 and 2020, over 22 games, Atwell caught 115 of his 177 targets for 1,897 yards and 19 touchdowns at Louisville. The Rams want him to stretch the field while also featuring him on some quick-hitting plays close to the line of scrimmage.
He brings speed to burn with an explosive feel after the catch. Atwell checks in at 5’9” and 165 lbs., inviting questions about his durability and ability to win contested balls in tight quarters. He will test a defense deep while adding explosive daylight plays close to the line of scrimmage.
Atwell didn’t have a catch in his rookie season while being on the field for only 10 plays. Last year, he caught 18 of his 35 targets for 298 yards and one score.
Fantasy Outlook: Atwell saw an increased opportunity in the Rams’ spring workout, pointing to more confidence in him from Matthew Stafford. Only a player to follow over the summer.
Puka Nacua
Over the past two seasons at BYU, Nacua caught 91 passes for 1,430 yards and 11 touchdowns on 141 targets. He also had 39 rushes for 357 yards and five touchdowns.
Fantasy Outlook: The Rams may see some traits of Robert Woods in the run game. His reports at the OTAs have been positive, giving him a chance to gain more 2023 momentum in training camp.
Other Options: Lance McCutcheon, Austin Trammell, Tyler Johnson
— Tight Ends —
Los Angeles turned back to the tight end position last year, leading to a gain of 14 catches for 149 yards and 26 targets more than in 2021. They gained short yards per catch (9.4) for the second consecutive season, with Matthew Stafford behind center.
Tyler Higbee
Higbee won the fantasy world a ton of money in 2019 with his incredible five-game run (7/107/1, 7/116, 12/111, 9/104, and 8/84/1) to end the year. Over his first 58 games in the NFL, Higbee caught 86 passes for 884 yards and five touchdowns on 141 targets.
His sure-thing price point in 2020 led to Higbee being a bust (44/521/5 on 60 targets). He gained fewer than 50 yards in 13 of his 16 contests while never catching over five passes in a game. His only game of value came in Week 2 (5/54/3). Higbee finished with six catches or fewer in each of his games played.
In 2021, the Rams upped his targets to 85 (the second most of his career). Higbee finished with 61 catches for 560 yards and five touchdowns over 15 games. His only game of value came in Week 18 (6/55/2). Higbee scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in 12 of his 18 starts (including the postseason). Despite the appearance of weakness, only 13 other tight ends outscored him in PPR formats.
Last season, Higbee set career highs in catches (72) and targets (108) with 620 yards and three touchdowns. On the downside, he gained only 8.6 yards per catch. Most of his success came over five matchups (7/71, 10/73, 7/46, 8/73, and 9/94/2). In his other 12 starts, Higbee had 31 catches for 263 yards and one score.
Fantasy Outlook: Higbee ranks 17th in FFWC drafts at tight end after finishing 14th in fantasy scoring (147.00) in PPR formats. The Rams don’t throw many balls to their running backs, and they don’t have a standout WR2 on the roster. Higbee can be up and down, but his opportunity has been rising with Matthew Stafford at quarterback.
Other Options: Brycen Hopkins, Hunter Long, Davis Allen
— Kicker —
Tanner Brown
The Rams have Brown listed as their kicker heading into training camp. Over the last two seasons at Oklahoma, he made all 78 of his extra points while making 39 of his 44 field goals. In his first year in college, Brown was the punter in three games for UNLV.
Fantasy Outlook: Los Angeles had 30 field goal attempts last year while scoring 32 touchdowns. I expect a better offense this year, but Brown has to make the team before becoming a fantasy consideration.
— DEFENSE —
The Rams fell to 13th in rushing yards allowed (1,956) with 12 touchdowns. Rushers gained 4.3 yards per carry with 26.7 attempts per game.
Los Angeles repeated their 22nd-place finish pass defense (3,842 yards) with 23 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Quarterbacks gained 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Rams had regression in sacks (38 – 50 in 2021).
DT Aaron Donald missed six games last year due to an ankle injury, leading to a career-low in sacks (5) and tackles (49). He continues to play well vs. the run, with 59 sacks over 65 games from 2018 to 2021. DT Kobie Turner should slide into the starting lineup after getting drafted in the third round in 2023. His run defense could be a liability early in his career. The nose tackle position will be an open battle this summer, with no one standing out.
LB Byron Young gives the Rams a youthful speed defender with high upside in the pass rush. Los Angeles hopes to have him in the starting lineup after scooping him in the third round this year. LB Ernest Jones delivered 114 tackles in his sophomore season with the Rams. His run defense was an asset, but he had limited chances to rush the quarterback. Their other starting linebacking jobs are up for grabs.
The cornerback position looks to be in a complete rebuild, inviting a learning curve early in the season. S Jordan Fuller played well vs. the run in 2021 with strength in his coverage. He missed 14 games in 2022 due to a hamstring injury.
I liked some of the Rams’ additions in their year’s draft class, but they didn’t address their shortfall in the secondary. Aaron Donald remains a beast, and Los Angeles will get after the quarterback in some games.
I expect their young players to improve, but their mistakes will lead to some high-scoring games by good passing offenses. This defense is on my fade list for 2023.
— Other Team Outlooks —
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