Top 5 Breakout Wide Receivers
The wide receiver position in fantasy football tends to be the most challenging to manage. In the high-stakes fantasy market, many top players want to be strong at wideout to eliminate decision-making from week to week. If your wide receiver corps has too many similar players that fall in the WR3 to WR4 range, their outcomes can be high in some weeks. But often their top games are followed by dull or empty performances.
A WR3 or flex option can make sense to have an explosive type player who can put up difference-maker scores. Last year, wide receivers produced 44 games with 30.00 fantasy points or more in PPR formats. Twelve of these games came from Justin Jefferson (7) and Davante Adams (5). No other player had more than two impact games. Outside the top 24 highest-scoring wideouts, only eight wideouts scored higher than 30.00 fantasy points. All impact games came from the top 48 scoring wide receivers.
In comparison, there were 142 wide receiver games between 20.00 and 29.95 fantasy points. Stefon Diggs (7) led this category, followed by Tyreek Hill (6) and Amari Cooper (5). Here’s the ranking by groups:
- WR1s – 41
- WR2s – 29
- WR3s – 25
- WR4s – 14
- All others – 32
When listing my breakout wide receivers, I’m looking for players to jump at least one level in production from last year and outperform their current ADP in the high-stakes market.
Jerry Jeudy (Denver Broncos)
The Broncos passing offense and scoring fell well below expectations in 2022. Russell Wilson posted his worst season in his 11 years in the NFL. With Sean Payton in change, Denver would be much better offensively this season. Despite their offensive struggles and Jerry Jeudy missing two games, he finished 22nd in wide receiver scoring (204.20) in PPR leagues. His best play came over the final five games (8/73/3, 7/76, 6/117, 7/38, and 5/154). Jeudy looks poised to push to WR1 status in 2023. He ranks 17th at wideout over the past month.
Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings)
If the Vikings give Kirk Cousins (46 sacks in 2022 – career-high) time to throw this year, Minnesota looks poised to lead the league in passing yards and attempts. The addition of Jordan Addison upgrades the depth of their wide receivers. Also, he will see favorable coverage on many plays. His star shined in 2021 at USC (100/1,593/17 on 145 targets), but an ankle issue led to less production last season (59/875/8). Addison draws early WR4 status (38th), while I expect him to finish as a WR2 in his rookie year (78/970/7). He slides into Adam Thielen’s role while offering more explosiveness. Thielen ran the second-most routes in the NFL last season. Addison is set up to make an immediate impact.
George Pickens (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Over the past few weeks, Diontae Johnson (WR28) has started to separate from George Pickens (WR37) in drafts. Johnson had a high floor in targets (144, 169, and 147) over his last 48 starts. However, he tends to gain short yards per catch (10.6). Pickens was up and down in his rookie season (52/801/4). He has excellent hands with a higher upside while offering an edge in size (6’3” and 200 lbs.), scoring, and big plays. I expect him to close the gap on Johnson in targets in 2023. That sets the stage for a 70/1,000/7 type season if Kenny Pickett makes the expected progression at quarterback. To reach WR2 status, he must score 200 fantasy points in PPR formats.
Elijah Moore (Cleveland Browns)
I’m starting to get a giddy feeling about Elijah Moore with the Browns. The summer reports have been positive about his chemistry with Deshaun Watson. Also, I expect to run and hide as the Browns’ WR2 in 2023. He flashed over six games in his rookie campaign (34/494/5) with the Jets, highlighted by three showings (7/84/2, 8/141/1, and 6/77/1). Will Fuller had success with the Texans as their WR2 (5/125/2, 8/113/1, 5/101/1, 5/124/1, 14/217/3, 7/140, 8/112, 6/108/1, 6/123/1, 5/100/1, and 6/171/2) despite missing 25 games from 2017 to 2020 with Watson behind center. Moore has a better overall skill set, with the tools to work the short areas of the field and the speed to win in the deep passing game. In my first update, I have him under-projected (55/658/4). But that will change dramatically in the next addition. Moore fits into the breakout wide receiver of the year category.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has yet to play a down in the NFL, but his presence on Seattle’s roster has led to Tyler Lockett sliding in drafts (WR32). Lockett ranked 8th (265.40), 16th (241.40), and 13th (239.30) in wide receiver scoring PPR formats, making him an excellent value or a trap. Smith-Njigba isn’t a slam dunk due to two factors. He barely played in 2022 (5/43) due to a hamstring issue, and WR3 targets will make it difficult for him to outperform his early ranking (WR40). On the positive side, he looks special, highlighted by his production (95/1,606/9) in 2021 at Ohio State, and Smith-Njigba is an injury away from an excellent opportunity.
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