There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: WR looks at the most crucial position to give you a draft-day edge.
While there is plenty of strength of schedule analysis out there, FullTime Fantasy breaks down the data in a unique way. In addition to season-long data, FullTime Fantasy Members get access to all positions including IDP. Also, the data can be sorted by remaining games and broken down into sections. This can be especially helpful for high-stakes and tournament drafters looking for the edge during the fantasy playoffs.
Also, don’t forget to explore our previous 2023 strength of schedule analysis for quarterbacks and running backs. Now, let’s check out the 2023 fantasy football strength of schedule: WR.
The numbers listed include Weeks 1-17.
Favorable Schedules
Chris Olave & Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) – Playing six games in the NFC South certainly doesn’t hurt for the underrated New Orleans Saints receiving corps. QB Derek Carr should be a big improvement over Andy Dalton. Plus, Carr has a notable history of peppering his No. 1 wideout with targets. That should be a boon for sophomore Chris Olave, who already ranked 10th in the league with a 29.3% target rate in 2022.
Michael Thomas was also off to a fast start before succumbing to another season-ending injury. When healthy, Thomas remains an elite pass catcher. While his fantasy football ADP has started to creep up, Thomas remains an excellent value pick to target in drafts.
For Thomas and Olave, expect a fast start and finish. New Orleans has the second-easiest schedule for wide receivers in Weeks 1-5 and again from Weeks 11-15. Also, Chris Olave piled up 19 targets in two games against Tampa last season. That makes that Week 17 finale all the more appealing for the second-year superstar.
Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers) – In addition to having the most appealing QB schedule, Green Bay also has the second-best slate for their revamped receiving corps. While there is still some uncertainty about the depth chart, Watson is the clear No. 1 option coming off of an exhilarating rookie campaign.
After playing sparingly in the first half of 2022, Watson exploded for eight TD grabs in four games. Overall, he ranked fourth with nine touchdown grabs. Watson also led all NFL receivers with a robust 2.52 fantasy points per target figure. He was also top-3 in QB rating when targeted and fantasy points per route.
If Jordan Love can hold up his end, Watson has WR1 potential in Year Two. The Packers also have the type of schedule that will help Love and company ease into the new era. Green Bay gets five games against teams that ranked inside the bottom four in allowing fantasy points to wideouts. That includes a pair of games to conclude the fantasy playoffs against Carolina (3rd worst) and the Vikings (2nd worst).
Additionally, neither of those contests will come at home, which eliminates a potential bad weather game. Christian Watson looks poised to carry over his momentum this season. A run at WR1 numbers is certainly a possibility.
D.J. Moore (Chicago Bears) – Green Bay’s NFC North rivals also play a favorable schedule. Playing four games against the Lions and Vikings will do that. While the Bears still project to be one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in 2023, the acquisition of D.J. Moore gives Chicago something they lacked: A clear-cut No. 1 receiver.
Carolina only ranked 29th in passing a year ago. However, Moore was still able to post some impressive numbers that backed up his top-dog potential. Moore led all NFL wideouts with a 48% air yards share and ranked fourth with 29 deep-ball targets. That over-the-top ability give Justin Fields an element that was desperately missing in Chicago’s 32nd-ranked passing attack.
Fields made strides as a passer down the stretch last season. With a versatile weapon like Moore, Fields should be able to exploit the league’s third-easiest WR schedule. Chicago does have an unfortunate Week 13 bye. But the Bears have a very appealing second-half schedule.
Moore was able to post WR25 numbers last year for a moribund passing attack. With this favorable schedule and an improved supporting cast, Moore looks like an excellent value at his currently deflated ADP.
Chris Godwin & Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Evaluating a schedule based on last year’s numbers can be a useful tool. However, there are often complications that factor in. For the Buccaneers, one of the biggest quarterback downgrades in recent memory is certainly a huge factor. While Chris Godwin and Mike Evans remain one of the NFL’s more formidable duos, the loss of Tom Brady is going to hurt.
With an over/under on 6.5 wins, Tampa Bay has some of the lowest expectations for the 2023 season. Baker Mayfield did have that improbable Week 16 showing against Denver but otherwise was ineffective the following two weeks. It’s possible that Mayfield could be outright beaten out by Kyle Trask this summer. However, that won’t help that uncertainty for Evans and Godwin.
Otherwise, both of Tampa’s starting wide receivers boast an exploitable slate of games. Tampa Bay’s schedule includes games against each of the five worst teams in terms of allowing fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season. If Tampa can get even modest QB production out of Mayfield or Trask, Godwin and Evans have the potential to be real difference-makers this season.
DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, & Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks) – The Seahawks aren’t going to sneak up and surprise people as they did in 2022. QB Geno Smith had the finest season of his career and looked very comfortable in Shane Waldron’s offense.
That led to top-14 PPR numbers for both Lockett and Metcalf. Now, Pete Carroll was able to add the draft’s top wideout to the fold in standout Ohio State rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It remains to be seen how Carroll and Waldron will re-design an offense that didn’t utilize many three-wide sets. However, there should still be plenty of fireworks for Seattle’s wide receivers thanks to the 2023 schedule makers.
The Seahawks play the No. 5 schedule for fantasy wideouts this season. Nine of Seattle’s opponents were below average in terms of ceding fantasy points to wide receivers in 2022. That includes six total games against the Lions, Panthers, Cowboys, 49ers, and Titans, who all ranked inside the bottom-6.
Difficult Schedules
Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams) – The Rams went all out to win their title in 2021 and paid the consequences in 2022. Of course, major injuries also factored in to hamstring the Rams just as much as the salary cap and free agency. Kupp was one of those losses but was otherwise having a fine season before suffering a season-ending ankle injury.
QB Matthew Stafford also missed a huge chunk of the season. Reports indicate that both players are healthy and ready to rebound this season. However, things won’t be easy for a roster that is rebuilding.
The supporting cast around Kupp is mostly unproven and the Rams have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Additionally, LA plays the hardest schedule in the NFL for wide receivers. In all, Kupp and company have the formidable task of playing 11 games against opponents that ranked inside the top 12 in limiting fantasy points to wide receivers in 2022.
Volume should continue to be an asset for Kupp, but if another pass-catcher doesn’t quickly develop, Kupp could be blanked by tons of extra coverage.
Juju Smith Schuster (New England Patriots) – It has been a while since there has been a fantasy significant wideout in New England. 2022 appears to be no different. Jakobi Meyers put up decent production in this offense and Juju Smith-Schuster is expected to fill that role. The two also signed oddly similar contracts.
But the upside will be rather capped in this offense. Mac Jones is still unproven and last year’s play-calling was abysmal. The return of Bill O’Brien is definitely a step in the right direction but the 2023 schedule won’t make things easy. New England will face the second most difficult schedule for wide receivers.
A pair of games against the Jets’ No.1-ranked fantasy WR defense looms and the playoff stretch looks very unappealing. After rematches against his former employers in Pittsburgh and Kansas City, Smith-Schuster and the Patriots face consecutive road games in Denver and Buffalo. Bestball drafters might also want to consider that Week 18 finale against the Jets.
Amari Cooper & Elijah Moore (Cleveland Browns) – I’ve been on board all offseason for a rebound year from Deshaun Watson. But that doesn’t come without some obstacles. Watson looked awful when he finally debuted last winter. Also, Cleveland’s 2023 schedule won’t do the offense many favors.
While I love the acquisition of Elijah Moore and the underrated Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland’s wideouts have a formidable slate to contend with. Only the Patriots and Rams have it tougher this season.
Worse still, Cleveland’s fantasy playoff schedule (Weeks 14-17) is the toughest in football. Starting in Week 12, the Browns face three of the league’s toughest four teams in terms of limiting fantasy points to wide receivers. That championship Week 17 home tilt against the New York Jets’ top-ranked defense is of particular concern.
DeAndre Hopkins & Treylon Burks (Tennessee Titans) – Before the recent signing of DeAndre Hopkins, the Tennessee Titans had the thinnest receiving corps in football. Obviously signing an alpha like Nuk will help, but the passing attack still projects to be a bottom-10 unit.
Tennessee’s offense will continue to run through RB Derrick Henry first. The Titans ranked 32nd in neutral situation pace of play last season. That strategy is unlikely to change in the weak AFC South. Granted, QB Ryan Tannehill missed five games, but the Titans are philosophically a low-volume passing attack. With or without Hopkins.
Further complicating things for D-Hop and Treylon Burks is Tenness’s 29th-ranked wide receiver schedule. A pair of fantasy games against Houston looks appealing. However, the Texans were surprisingly competent against wide receivers a year ago. That, and Derrick Henry averaging nearly 200 yards per game against the Texans could prove to be a more challenging ‘revenge game’ for Hopkins than it appears to be on the surface.
Stefon Diggs & Gabe Davis (Buffalo Bills) – Oddly, it was Buffalo who actually had the most fantasy-friendly secondary for wide receivers last year. The Jets (1st), Dolphins (18th), and Patriots (21st) all surrendered fewer fantasy points than Buffalo’s 35.6 PPR points per week.
The Dolphins added CBs Jalen Ramsey and Cam Smith and New England used their 2023 first-rounder on CB Christian Gonzalez. Those six games against AFC East rivals will be tough enough for Buffalo. But they won’t be the only obstacles.
Diggs and Davis also will face Denver, Philadelphia, and the Chargers. Each of those teams were top-6 defenses versus wide receivers in 2022. Nobody should fade Diggs, but banking on Davis to rebound after a disappointing 2022 campaign seems like a risky proposition.
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