Betting on veteran players after down seasons due to injuries can sometimes lead to some surprising stats. Many drafters will avoid these types of players while looking for someone with a higher ceiling. A change of scenery or even a contract year may be just enough motivation for a rebound or uptick year. Here are some contenders for MLB Comeback Player of the Year:
Before we reveal the 2023 MLB Breakout Pitchers, please familiarize yourself with my 2023 fade list. Also, my 2023 bounce-back players , deep sleepers, breakout hitter of the year, and extensive preview of all 30 squads are invaluable resources. Finally, our 2023 MLB breakout pitchers list digs deep to give you an edge on draft day.
SP Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals
In 2019, Flaherty reached elite ace status when he posted a 2.75 ERA and 231 strikeouts over 196.1 innings. He also the National League in WHIP (0.968). Flaherty’s arm was brilliant over his final 16 starts (0.930 ERA, 0.6959 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts over 106.1 innings). Unfortunately, he lost his way in the Covid-19 season in 2020 (4.91 ERA), followed by back-to-back injury-plagued years (only 23 combined starts).
In the early draft season, I avoided Flaherty in all leagues due to struggles with a right shoulder strain in 2022. He pitched well in his first two spring training games (three runs and seven baserunners over seven innings with seven strikeouts) but tripped up in his next outing (two runs and nine base runners over 4.1 innings with three strikeouts). Flaherty only threw 41 strikes of his 80 pitches in his rough showing.
Flaherty’s ADP (224) in the high-stakes market creates a buying opportunity. Based on his last game, I sense his shoulder still isn’t right. That makes him a fade this week in my high-dollar leagues. If he looks better in his next start, I could be swayed to buy him a discount due to his potential ceiling. Either way, Flaherty fits the parameters to be considered a comeback player.
OF Jorge Soler, Miami Marlins
Soler is another player who had his best season in 2019 (.265/95/48/117/3 over 589 at-bats). That helped guide me to a third-overall finish in the NFBC Best Ball Championship with a single entry. Over his last 264 games over three years, he only hit .219 with 123 runs, 48 home runs, and 128 RBIs over 935 at-bats (120 missed games). Soler enters 2023 at age 31 with only one impact season on his major league resume. When at his best, he can offer a high contact batting average with impact power. Soler’s challenge is staying on the field and playing to his potential. The Marlins should hit him in the middle of their batting order, giving Soler a chance to play at a higher level this season.
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
I already used Rendon as a potential bounce-back candidate. However, he also has the talent and opportunity to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. His bat has been trending up in spring training (6-for-14 with four runs, two home runs, and six RBIs).
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
When scouring the player pool over the past month, I came across a pair of interesting stats for Sale. He currently has the highest strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.33) in major league history, along with the highest strikeout per nine rate (11.1), according to Baseball Reference. I don’t know how many innings they use for a pitcher to quality for records.
When looking at these stats, what stands out is the potential to be an edge in WHIP if Sale regains his previous form. From 2012 to 2018, he went 99-59 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, and 1,678 strikeouts over 1,388 innings. Over the next three seasons, Sale only pitched 48.1 innings due to TJ surgery, a rib ailment, and a broken right wrist (none throwing). His spring training reports have been positive. Plus, he’s been successful on the field (no runs over five innings with three hits, no walks, and seven strikeouts). Over the past week, in 12-team formats in the high-stakes market, Sale has an ADP of 156. That includes a minimum selection of 73.
Dismissing disaster seasons for any major league player can be challenging. Especially when their short stats crush your chance of competing in fantasy leagues. A drafter has to have a short memory while also keeping an open mind about a player’s ability to reach their previous form.
As a result, Chris Sale is my 2023 MLB Comeback Player of the Year. He looks mispriced in drafts, and I expect him to outperform expectations. In my first run of the projections, I have Sale projected to go 12-7 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, and 232 strikeouts over 195.2 innings.
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