2023 Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: St. Louis Cardinals.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals remain the cream of the NL Central based on their high success over the past 23 seasons (17 playoff appearances, two World Series titles, and two World Series losses). Since 1903, the Cardinals have nine other championships (1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, and 1982), They’ve made the postseason over the past four years, but their last World Series appearance came in 2013.

St. Louis ranked sixth in runs (772), ninth in home runs (197), and fifth in RBIs (739) while hitting .252 (9th) with 95 stolen bases (11th). The Cardinals finished 10th in ERA (3.79). Their bullpen earned 41 wins, 16 losses, and 37 saves over 571.1 innings with a 3.61 ERA (11th).

The only player added to the major league roster was the signing of C Willson Contreras. St. Louis parted ways with SP Jose Quintana, RP Alex Reyes, OF Corey Dickerson, and RP Nick Wittgren.

Their starting pitching overachieved in 2022 when adding that Jack Flaherty pitched 36 disappointing innings (4.61 ERA and 1.611 WHIP). The Cardinals did an excellent job last season, adding SP Jordan Montgomery and SP Jose Quintana via trades. They may have to pull off a similar feat in 2023 to contend for their division title. St. Louis should wheel out a competitive arm every five days, but SP Adam Wainwright isn’t a frontline starter anymore, and they need Flaherty to regain his elite form.

The Cardinals had a top-tier offense even with some players underachieving last season. Their veteran presence sets a high floor while also having developing talent on the way (OF Jordan Walker and SS Masyn Winn). I expect a significant push in home runs in 2023.

St. Louis has two closing arms to man the eighth and ninth innings. If Jordan Hicks can reach his potential, their bullpen will reach a much higher ceiling.

Starting Lineup

2B Tommy Edman

After finishing 39th in FPGscore (2.61) in 2021, Edman had a slight uptick in production across the board last season, giving back-to-back years with career highs in most areas. His improved output led to a bump to 25th in FPGscore (4.86) but a higher impact due to the change in the dynamics in power in 2022.

His average hit rate (1.510) improved slightly while remaining below his best result at AAA (1.683) and the majors (1.646) in 2019. In addition, his contact batting average (.328) remains under his peak (.374) over short at-bats (326) in 2019. Edman finished with a new top in his walk rate (7.3), but his strikeout rate (17.6) came in higher than 2021 (13.8) while remaining favorable.

Over the first half of last year, Edman hit .272 with 58 runs, seven home runs, 32 RBIs, and 19 steals over 299 at-bats. His bat faded in July (.198/8/0/3/2 over 91 at-bats) while rebounding down the stretch (.289 over 187 at-bats with 29 runs, six home runs, 22 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases).

His exit velocity (88.6 – 169th) and hard-hit rate (37.8 – 187th) remain below the league average but career highs. Edman is trending upward slightly in barrel rate (6.2 – 4.2 in 2021). He finished last season with a career-low line drive rate (19.6 – regressed each in the majors) with a few more groundballs (49.5%).

Fantasy Outlook: Edman looks to be the new and improved Whit Merrifield without the success in batting average. The new shift rules should help him push over .280 in batting average, and there are signs of a few more home runs. Edman feels like a trusted asset, with only 17 games missed over the previous three years. He looks poised to push his output to 110 runs, 17 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 40 steals. His ADP (75) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship in mid-February ranks him as the 44th hitter drafted. I view him as an excellent buy, but he must fit your team’s development. Edman should be considered a top-three hitting piece to a fantasy team for someone looking for a balanced offense.

OF Jordan Walker

The Cardinal fans must be extremely excited about the development of Walker, who has the talent to muse their starting lineup for the next decade in a similar fashion as the great Albert Pujols. Over two short seasons in the minors, he hit .310 with 163 runs, 33 home runs, 116 RBIs, and 36 stolen bases over 786 at-bats. Walker has an entire season of experience at AA (.306/100/19/68/22 over 461 at-bats), putting him on a path to start the season at AAA.

His walk rate (10.8) graded well last year while finishing with a league-average strikeout rate (21.6). Walker has yet to show his immense ceiling in power despite having a reasonable starting point in his average hit rate (1.693) in the minors. His contact batting average has been over .400 in 2021 (.432) and 2022 (.409).

Fantasy Outlook: The fantasy bet in the early draft season has been on Walker making the Cardinals’ opening-day roster, and I support this message. His ADP (235) in the NFBC ranks him 19th at third base, but he must earn his keep in right field for St. Louis in 2023. There will be a learning curve in the majors while still having a chance at 20/20 season with more upside if his bat hits the ground running. All eyes should be on his progress in spring training.

1B Paul Goldschmidt

Over the past two seasons, Goldschmidt regained his elite form by hitting .305 over 1,164 at-bats with 1,164 runs, 66 home runs, 214 RBIs, and 19 steals. He was the second-best hitter in baseball in 2022 based on his FPGscore (9.54) while finishing 14th in 2021 (6.15).

His contact batting average (.424) was a five-year high while ranking favorably for the past decade (.402). Goldschmidt posted an exceptional RBI rate (20.8) with his highest RBI chances (400) since 2018. He continues to have an excellent approach (strikeout rate – 21.7 and walk rate – 12.1).

Goldschmidt was sensational against left-handed pitching (.411 with 11 home runs and 29 RBIs over 112 at-bats). His bat was on fire from April 22nd to July 8th (.374 with 54 runs, 19 home runs, 64 RBIs, and two steals over 270 at-bats).

He ranked 50th in exit velocity (90.8) and 36th in hard-hit rate (47.3). His swing path remains balanced while setting a career-high in his flyball rate (40.8). Goldschmidt finished with his highest HR/FB rate (20.2) since 2018.

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past 10 seasons, Goldschmidt has been a .290/95/30/95 player six times while continuing to chip in with some stolen bases. His ADP (27) in the high-stakes market ranks him fourth at first base, making him a value at the position. The Cardinals’ lineup appears to be better in 2023, helping his runs and RBIs. I don’t expect a repeat in batting average, but it will still be an asset. More of the same with a foundation building block feel.

3B Nolan Arenado

Over his first two seasons with the Cardinals, Arenado delivered steady production in runs (154), home runs (64), and RBIs (208). He had a rebound in his batting average (.293) and contact batting average (.336) while continuing to have a low strikeout rate (11.6) and average walk rate (8.4).

Arenado came to the plate with more than 400 runners on base for the seventh consecutive season, excluding the Covid-19 shortened season in 2020. His RBI rate (18 – in 2022) has been exceptional in his career (18.7).

Despite hitting only .250 vs. left-handed pitching with 11 walks and 12 strikeouts over 112 at-bats, he bashed 11 home runs and 25 RBIs. Arenado carried the Cardinals’ offense from May 31st to August 31st (.332 with 44 runs, 19 home runs, and 57 RBIs).

His exit velocity (88.7 – 165th) and hard-hit rate (38.9 – 161st) remain below expectations for his power output. Arenado gains his power edge by launch angle (21.7 – 6th) and flyball rate (49.9 – career-high). He had regression again in his HR/FB rate (12.3 – 15.1 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: Arenado finished 26th in FPGscore (4.80) for hitters, up from 45th in 2021. His ADP (35) in the NFBC is lower than his production last season while ranking sixth in mid-February at third base. I expect him to come to the plate with 450 runners on base, and the supporting cast behind him in the lineup should help his runs. Unfortunately, Arenado can’t push higher in batting average with the same swing path due to many easier outs via infield flies. Let’s start the bidding at .270 with 90m runs, 35 home runs, and 115 RBIs. He’ll even chip in with some steals (eight stolen bases attempts in 2022 – most of his career).

C Willson Contreras

In 2021, Contreras had a productive month in April in runs (16), home runs (7), and RBIs (16) over 84 at-bats despite batting .238. Over the next four months, Contreras barely had a pulse (.222/32/10/24 over 261 at-bats). In September, he finished the year with a bump in success (.294 with 13 runs, four home runs, and 17 RBIs over 68 at-bats). Contreras missed some time in August with a right knee injury.

The Cubs only had him behind the plate for 72 games last season due to missed time with hamstring (twice) and ankle (twice) issues. Contreras made 39 starts at DH. He only hit .219 vs. lefties despite adding eight home runs and 14 RBIs over 105 at-bats.

Contreras shined over a 47-game stretch in May and June, leading to 31 runs, 11 home runs, 27 RBIs, and three steals over 169 at-bats. He had his best power output in August (seven home runs and 16 RBIs over 74 at-bats),

His strikeout rate (21.2) was a career-best while trending in the wrong direction over the previous three seasons (28.6 in 2021). Contreras brings a favorable walk rate (9.2 – 9.8 in his career).

He continues to have a ground ball swing path (51.4% – same in his career). Contreras posted a HR/FB rate of more than 21% in five of his seven years with the Cubs. His exit velocity (90.4 – 65th) and hard-hit rate (48.6 – 28th) ranked high, but he had a poor launch angle (8.5 – 257th).

Fantasy Outlook: Contreras hits the ball hard enough that a move over 30 home runs would only take more loft in his swing. His ADP (99) ranks him as the sixth catcher in the early draft season in the NFBC. Last year Contreras finished 109th in FPGscore (-1.64). He has never had 500 at-bats in his career, and his DH opportunity for St. Louis appears to be less in 2023. At best, a .250 hitter with 70 runs, 25 home runs, and 65 RBIs with 450 at-bats.

OF Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill hit .272 in his 2,158 at-bats in the minors, with 352 runs, 141 home runs, 432 RBIs, and 55 steals over eight seasons. The Cardinals gave him 410 at-bats over his first three years, leading to 67 runs, 21 home runs, 58 RBIs, and six stolen bases. His failure to earn a starting job came from a high strikeout rate (34.0).

In 2021, he still whiffed 31.3% of the time. However, O’Neill overcame his batting average risk with an electric contact batting average (.439). He hit .397 when putting the ball in play in his minor league career. His FPGscore (4.74) ranked 24th for hitters while missing some time with groin, foot, finger, and back issues. Despite a breakout season, a good portion of his success came over two months (May – .294 with 11 runs, seven home runs, 18 RBIs, and two steals and September – .328 with 31 runs, 13 home runs, 30 RBIs, and five stolen bases over 119 at-bats).

O’Neill missed 66 games last season due to a right shoulder injury in mid-May and hamstring issues in June and September. He had fewer than 50 at-bats in May, June, July, and September. His only month of value came in August (.215/18/7/20/2 over 93 at-bats). On the positive side, O’Neill did lower his strikeout rate (26.9) while setting a career-high in his walk rate (9.9).

His exit velocity (89.8) and hard-hit rate (43.3) came in well below 2021 (93.0/52.2), along with a sharp decline in his barrel rate (11.3 – 17.9 in 2021). As a result, he had a much lower HR/FB rate (15.6 – 20.8 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past two years, we’ve seen a wide range of outcomes from O’Neill. His minor league resume supports his power, and his contact batting average (.329) was out of line last season. His ADP (101) in the NFBC is still influenced by his 2021 stats. The Cardinals have deeper options in the outfield this season, which could lead to O’Neill losing some at-bats when he’s not making contact. Ultimately, he has 30+ home run upside with supporting speed and some batting average risk.

OF Juan Yepez

Yepez needed five seasons (.272 with 162 runs, 24 home runs, 176 RBIs, and 22 steals over 1,259 at-bats) to reach AA. After sitting out 2020 (no minor league baseball), his bat was much improved (.286 with 67 runs, 27 home runs, 77 RBIs, and one stolen base over 367 at-bats) between AA and AAA while posting a favorable strikeout (19.0) and walk (11.8) rates.

Last year, Yepez started the season well at AAA (.279/15/9/26 over 86 at-bats), earning him his first major league call-up. The Cardinals had him in the lineup on most days in May and June, leading to a .284 batting average with 21 runs, nine home runs, and 24 RBIs over 162 at-bats. After slumping over the first half of July (7-for-47 with three runs, two home runs, and three RBIs), he landed on the injured list for 25 days with a forearm issue. Yepez proceeded to drill seven home runs and 27 RBIs over 103 at-bats at AAA with a minimal opportunity with St. Louis over the final three weeks (.271/4/2/5 over 48 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (22.3) wasn’t far off the league average while taking fewer walks (5.8). Yepez rated well in his average hit rate at AAA (2.096) and majors (1.766). On the downside, his exit velocity (86.5 – 277th) and hard-hit rate (33.7 – 255th) ranked poorly. Over the past two seasons, he developed a flyball swing path (over 45% in 2022).

Fantasy Outlook: Yepez is major league ready with the approach and power to be an 80/20/80 hitter in 2023 if given 500 at-bats. Despite a favorable approach, he now hits many infield flies that lower his batting average ceiling. His defense isn’t ideal, suggesting many at-bats at DH early in his career. Yepez profiles as the last bat to a fantasy team in 15 team leagues based on his ADP (336) in the high-stakes market. His first hurdle is earning everyday at-bats in St. Louis.

OF Dylan Carlson

St. Louis drafted Carlson with the 33rd selection in the first round in the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over five seasons in the minors, Carlson hit .262 with 261 runs, 48 home runs, 198 RBIs, and 38 stolen bases over 1,494 at-bats. His approach (strikeout rate – 21.6 and walk rate – 11.0) came in above the league average.

Carlson played well at AA in 2019 (.281 with 81 runs, 21 home runs, 59 RBIs, and 18 stolen bases over 417 at-bats). The Cardinals pushed him to AAA (.361 with five home runs, nine RBIs, and two steals over 72 at-bats), leading to more success.

He struggled to make contact in his first experience in the majors (strikeout rate – 29.4) in 2020 while posting a short walk rate (6.7). His contact batting average (.293) was well below his minor league career (.348). In 2021, Carlson showed growth after the All-Star break (.277 with 34 runs, 11 home runs, and 34 RBIs over 220 at-bats).

At no point last season was his bat worthy of a full-time starting job with St. Louis. Carlson never had more than 11 runs, two home runs, or 11 RBIs in a month. He lost his way against right-handed pitching (.207/35/5/27 over 304 at-bats) with fading stats after the All-Star break (.205/24/3/16 over 171 at-bats).

Carlson came out of 2022 with improvement in his approach (strikeout rate – 19.3 and walk rate – 9.2). His exit velocity (86.1 – 299th) and hard-hit rate (27.2 – 300th) ranked at the bottom of the league for batters with at least 250 plate appearances.

Fantasy Outlook: If a lost and found in fantasy baseball existed, Carlson would fall into the lost category with minimal drafters looking to find out what happened to his potential. His ADP (327) in the NFBC is nothing more than a flier unless his spring reports rave about his newfound ability to drive the ball. Carlson will face more challenges in right field, forcing him to earn his starting job in center field (60 in 2021 and 73 in 2022). I see playing time risk, but he is young enough to still develop into a five-category player.

2B Brendan Donovan

Over four short seasons in the minor, Donovan hit .285 with 157 runs, 21 home runs, 127 RBIs, and 23 steals over 867 at-bats. His walk rate (12.0) has top of the batting order upside while offering a favorable strikeout rate (17.9). His contact batting average (.343) and average hit rate (1.345) regressed as he moved up the Cardinals’ system.

With 169 at-bats of experience at AAA (.296/35/7/31/4), St. Louis called him up last April. From May 10th to June 28th, Donovan gave the Cardinals good replacement at-bats (.325/26/2/24/2 over 160 at-bats). Besides runs (35), he wasn’t much of a fantasy factor after the All-Star break (.274 over 175 at-bats with three home runs and 15 RBIs). Donovan didn’t have a home run off a lefty pitcher over 61 at-bats.

He finished with a groundball swing path (52.8%) and a career-low flyball rate (23.6). Donovan ranked 215th in exit velocity (87.7) and 190th in hard-hit rate (37.7).

Fantasy Outlook: The Cardinals should use him in a utility role in 2023, but they probably would like to get more production out of second base. He gets on base while adding value runs. Donovan was also very good with runners on base (RBI rate – 18). His lacking tool is power. His ADP (304) in the high-stakes market feels like a two-category safe play. Donovan showed more power in the minors with some speed (19 steals) in 2019. I expect him to get better, but I’m not convinced he’ll get 500 at-bats.

2B Nolan Gorman

The Cardinals drafted Gorman with the 19th overall selection in the 2018 June Amateur Draft. After a quiet 2019 season (.248 with 65 runs, 15 home runs, and 62 RBIs over 456 at-bats), he played well over two levels of the minors. His year started with success at AA (.288/26/11/27/4 over 195 at-bats), leading to a push to AAA (.274/45/14/48/3 over 303 at-bats).

Gorman bashed again last season at AAA (.275/35/16/26/3 over 171 at-bats), earning him his first trip to the majors. Despite success in runs (44), home runs (14), and RBIs (35) over 283 at-bats, he only hit .266 due to an extremely high strikeout rate (32.9 – 27.5 on the farm) while almost matching his minor league walk rate (8.8 – 9.0 with St. Louis).

All of his power (14 home runs) came against right-handed pitching. Gorman was 4-for-19 vs. lefties with six runs, no home runs, and two RBIs). After the All-Star break, he hit .207 with 18 runs, five home runs, and 13 RBIs over 121 at-bats. His swing path led to a 48.3% flyball rate in the majors with a mid-tier HR/FB rate (16.1 – 34.0 at AAA in 2021).

Fantasy Outlook: Gorman has significant power upside while having job loss risk when not making contact. His ADP (387) in the NFBC is an excellent flier for someone needing help in power on their bench. He’ll compete for at-bats at second base and DH. I expect him to platoon until his bat shows life against lefties (.202 with two home runs and 10 RBIs over 119 at-bats in the minors in 2021 and .180/3/7 over 78 at-bats last season).

OF Lars Nootbaar

Despite a dull career in college (.272 with 85 runs, 14 home runs, 74 RBIs, and four steals over 504 at-bats), St. Louis selected Nootbaar in the eighth round in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft. His best asset was his approach (strikeout rate – 15.2 and walk rate – 13.7).

Over four years in the minors, he hit .257 with 87 runs, 19 home runs, 97 RBIs, and nine stolen bases over 719 at-bats. Nootbaar raised his bar over 180 at-bats at AAA (.278/34/10/33/3), leading to his call-up to the majors.

With St. Louis in 2021, he delivered playable stats (.239 with 15 runs, five home runs, 15 RBIs, and two steals over 109 at-bats). Nootbaar struggled over his first 74 at-bats in the majors last season, leading to a .149 BAA, nine runs, two home runs, and eight RBIs. The injury to Juan Yepez in mid-July help him earn regular at-bats over his final 72 games (.252 with 44 runs, 12 home runs, 32 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 214 at-bats). Even with success, right-handed pitchers held him to a .217 batting average over 235 at-bats.

His contact batting average (.301) has been low throughout his career while showing growth in his average hit rate (1.970). Nootbaar has an excellent and improving approach (strikeout rate – 20.5 and walk rate – 14.7). He ranked 28th in exit velocity (91.7) and 53rd in hard-hit rate (12.1).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his approach and finish to last season, Nootbaar deserves a starting opportunity in 2023. His ADP (185) in the high-stakes makes sense, but he is not a lock to get 500 at-bats, especially with the Cardinals having depth and talented players to start in the outfield and DH. However, the sum of his parts gives him a chance at .270 with 90 runs, 20 home runs, and 70 RBIs with a full-time starting job.

OF Alec Burleson

Over two seasons in the Cardinals’ organization, Burleson quickly pushed his way from High A to the majors. He hit .300 over 888 at-bats in the minors with 129 runs, 42 home runs, 163 RBIs, and seven steals while already having 586 at-bats at AAA (.306/87/24/109/4). His strikeout rate (17.3) starts in a good place with a below-par walk rate (7.3).

St. Louis gave him 48 at-bats in September, but he failed to make an impact (.188/4/1/3/1).

Fantasy Outlook: Burleson looks major league ready, and he’ll be a factor in some way in 2023 for the Cardinals. His average hit rate (1.608) isn’t quite prepared to make a push toward 30 home runs. At the very least, Burleson should be a very good handcuff to Tyler O’Neill, with a chance to steal his job if he gets hurt.

Starting Pitching

SP Jack Flaherty

After a foundation ace season in 2019 (2.75 ERA and 231 strikeouts over 196.1 innings), Flaherty battled Covid-19 and injuries over the past three years.

Coming off a 25-day layoff in 2019 due to a Covid-19 outbreak in St. Louis, he struggled to pitch in deep in games and find his rhythm. Over six starts, Flaherty allowed 16 runs, 31 baserunners, and five home runs over 22.1 innings with 27 strikeouts, with most of the damage coming in one game (nine runs and 10 baserunners over three innings).

In 2021 after a poor first start (six runs, 11 baserunners, and two home runs over 4.1 innings), Flaherty won his eight straight games with a 1.65 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, and 51 strikeouts over 49 innings. Two starts later (nine runs, 14 baserunners, and three home runs over 8.2 innings), he landed on the injured list for almost 11 weeks with an oblique injury. After two excellent starts (two runs over 12 innings with 13 strikeouts, Flaherty left his next contests with a right shoulder strain, knocking him out of the starting rotation for another month.

Last season, he left a workout in mid-March with another right shoulder issue requiring a PRP injection. Flaherty crawled back onto the mound in March, but his arm wasn’t right (five runs, eight hits, and nine walks over eight innings). After another 10 weeks on the injured list, he limped home with a 3.86 ERA, 1.464 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts over 28 innings.

His average fastball (93.4) fell below 2019 (94.5) while being a career-low. Surprisingly, his slider (.200 BAA), curveball (.150 BAA), and low-volume sinker (.167 BAA) remained challenging to hit, but Flaherty appeared to pitch away from contact with his four-seamer (.309 BAA with 17 walks, five doubles, one triple, and four home runs over 68 at-bats). His strikeout rate (8.3) was well below his career average (10.3) while offering a brutally high walk rate (5.5 – 3.1 before last season).

Fantasy Outlook: When on his game, Flaherty offers a difference-maker arm with a four-pitch arsenal to hold hitters to a low batting average. However, any shoulder issue has to be a significant concern. The Cardinals thought enough of him to pay him another $5.4 million in 2023, bridging him to his free-agent season. His ADP (223) in the NFBC prices in his injury risk. With success in spring training, his stock should rise in drafts. I love his arm and potential, but I will avoid him if there is any negative news surrounding his shoulder in March.

SP Jordan Montgomery

Montgomery was up and down over his eight starts in 2021, leading to a 4.75 ERA over 41.2 innings. His arm shined over his next 17 starts (2.89 ERA, 1.232 WHIP, and 90 strikeouts over 93.1 innings). In September, a couple of disaster starts (12 runs and 19 baserunners over six innings) led to a disappointing month (5.33 ERA) despite allowing only one run in each of his other four games over 21 innings.

Last season, he pitched well in 17 of his 21 starts (3.69 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts over 114.2 innings), but the Yankees traded him to the Cardinals for a questionable player (Harrison Bader). Montgomery dominated over his four stats for St. Louis (4-0 with one run and 16 baserunners allowed over 25.2 innings with 24 strikeouts). His magic ran out over his final seven games (4.97 ERA, 1.395 WHIP, and six home runs over 38 innings).

His average fastball (93.1) was a career-high and rose over the past four seasons. Montgomery gained his edge with an elite curveball (.162 BAA) and low-volume cutter (.211 BAA), but he lost the feel for his changeup (.264 BAA – .170 in 2021) and his four-seamer (.286 BAA – .222 in 2021).

Montgomery only walked one left-handed batter (106 at-bats with 38 strikeouts) while serving up 20 home runs to lefties (.242 over 571 at-bats). His walk rate (1.8) remains elite, but he did lose some ticks off his strikeout rate (8.0 – 9.3 in 2021).

Fantasy Outlook: Montgomery is also in a contract year with Mr. Boras holding his free-agent reigns. He has a 3.65 ERA over his last 335.2 innings with 320 strikeouts, putting him on a path to be a serviceable SP3 in 2023. His ADP (155) in the NFBC ranks him as the 65th pitcher drafted. Montgomery ranked 60th by FPGscore (-0.47) last season. Possible career season coming with a push to 175 strikeouts.

SP Miles Mikolas

In his first year back in the majors in 2018, after three seasons in Japan, Mikolas outperformed his expected value with an 18-4 record with a 2.83 ERA and 146 strikeouts over 200.2 innings. However, his WHIP (1.071) suggested a higher ERA.

In 2019, his overall game regressed (4.16 ERA, .272 BAA, and 1.223 WHIP). Mikolas had a tick down in his elite walk rate (1.6 – 1.3 in 2018) with a minor rise in his strikeout rate (7.0 – 6.5 in 2018).

Mikolas suffered a forearm injury in February 2020 that required a platelet-rich injection. After looking healthy in July while getting ready for the late start to the season, he had a setback that ended up needing surgery.

Mikolas missed almost all of the first 21 weeks in 2021 with a right shoulder injury and a second forearm issue. Over his final eight starts, he posted a 4.43 ERA and 28 strikeouts over 40.2 innings.

Surprisingly, Mikolas made 33 appearances last season with much more success than his previous two years. He finished with a new top in innings pitched (202.1) and WHIP (1.033) while relying on his command (1.7 walks per nine). Batters only hit .226 against him despite a soft-tossing strikeout rate (6.8).

His average fastball (93.6) was a step back from 2018 (94.5). However, Mikolas did have success with his four-seamer (.199 BAA), slider (.239 BAA), curveball (.229 BAA), and sinker (.213 BAA). He also threw an unsuccessful low-volume changeup (.300 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Mikolas was an avoid for me last season, and anyone buying him at his lower ADP (235) in the high-stakes market will be penalized in 2023. He’s pitched over 180 innings in three of his four seasons with St. Louis, but Mikolas has plenty of underlying injury risk. Your dart but my balloon, which ended in a bust. His free agent year is 2024 as well.

SP Adam Wainwright

Wainwright enters his 18th season in the majors with a 195-112 record while posting a career 3.38 ERA over 2,567.1 innings with 2,147 strikeouts. He has five dominating years on his resume, which may not be enough to reach the Hall of Fame.

From 2016 to 2019, over 96 games, Wainwright went 41-28 with a 4.58 ERA and 450 strikeouts over 534 innings. However, his arm was rejuvenated in 2020, 2021, and 2022 leading to a 33-22 record with a 3.34 ERA and 371 strikeouts over 463.2 innings. A big part of his improvement came from regaining his command (2.3 walks per nine) and minimizing the damage in home runs allowed (0.9 per nine).

Over his first 26 starts last season, Wainwright allowed two runs or fewer in 16 games, leading to a 3.09 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts over 163 innings. He finished the year with a down September (23 runs, 55 baserunners, and 13 strikeouts over 28.2 innings).

His average fastball (88.1) was the lowest of his career while being about 3.5 mph below his peak in 2013 (91.8). Wainwright still has above league average success with his curveball (.245 BAA), sinker (.247 BAA, and changeup (.245 BAA), but his cutter (.283 BAA has become a liability.

Fantasy Outlook: Wainwright has a sliding strikeout rate (6.7), and his margin error declines with each passing year. His ADP (361) in the NFBC may work as a backend inning eater, but the wheels for this bus don’t have much tread left. He is a fourth starter on the Cardinals who will most likely not be on the team in 2024.

SP Matthew Liberatore

Tampa Bay drafted Liberatore 16th overall in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft. The Cardinals acquired him in January 2020 for OF Randy Arozarena.

Over his first two seasons in the minors, Liberatore went 8-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 113 strikeouts over 111 innings. His walk rate (3.6) needs work while offering strength in his strikeout rate (9.2).

In 2019, he made 16 appearances at single-A (6-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 78.1 innings), which should have put him on a path for AA, and possibly AAA in 2020. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to a minor back issue.

Liberatore went 9-9 at AAA in 2021 with a 4.04 ERA and 123 strikeouts over 124.2 innings. He finished with the best walk rate (2.4) of his young career and repeated success in his strikeout rate (8.9). His downside came from 19 home runs allowed. The Cardinals kept him at AAA again last season, but Liberatore wasn’t up to the task (5.17 ERA and 1.383 WHIP over 115 innings with 116 strikeouts). He flashed in three starts (no runs over 14 innings with 15 strikeouts) with St. Louis while failing over his other 20.2 innings (23 runs, 43 baserunners, and five home runs).

His average fastball (93.7) came in above the league average. Liberatore only succeeded with his curveball (.152 BAA) and sinker (.209 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The Cardinals need him to step up this year, starting with improved command and keeping the ball in the park. Liberatore has strikeout ability while looking like he’s not ready to help in 2023. His ADP (620) is deep in the player pool in mid-February, requiring him to right the ship as AAA before getting another chance in St. Louis.

SP Steven Matz

In 2020, Matz looked sharp in spring training and in July before the start of the season. Unfortunately, he finished with a wasted season leading to a 9.68 ERA and 1.696 WHIP over nine appearances while batting a left should injury.

Over his previous two full seasons, Matz made 60 starts with mixed results (16-21 with a 4.09 ERA and 305 strikeouts over 314.1 innings).

In 2021, he kept the Blue Jays in many games by allowing two runs or fewer in 17 of his 29 starts, leading to a career-high in wins (14) with a 3.82 ERA and 144 strikeouts over 150.2 innings. However, Matz did have eight disaster showings (36 runs, 72 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 35 innings). His season ended with a 2.91 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts over 74.1 innings. Matz didn’t hold an edge over right-handed (.261 BAA) or left-handed (.276 BAA).

Matz needed only six starts last season to bury fantasy teams in ERA (7.01) and WHIP (2.494) over 25.2 innings with 30 strikeouts. He spent most of the next four months on the injured list with a left shoulder injury and a torn MCL in his left knee that required surgery. Over his final 22.1 innings, Matz did pitch better (3.22 ERA, .188 BAA, and 24 strikeouts over 22.1 innings).

He relies on his sinker (94.6), which still has plenty of velocity. His only pitch of value last year was his changeup (.200).

Fantasy Outlook: Matz finished the year with a career-low walk rate (1.9) and strength in his strikeout rate (10.1), but he served up 1.5 home runs per nine. His ADP (326) falls in the flier range in the NFBC. Matz’s failure last year was tied to injuries, but he is far from a slam dunk to help fantasy teams. Ride him while his arm provides winning innings, and dump him as the first sign of an injury.

SP Gordon Graceffo

There wasn’t much to Graceffo’s arm over his first two seasons at Villanova. He went 7-8 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts over 97.1 innings. His improved command (walk rate – 1.4) in his final year in college led to a 7-2 record with a 1.54 ERA, 0.963 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts over 82 innings.

After getting drafted, Graceffo pitched in a limited relief role in 2021 at A ball (1-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 26 innings). Last year, he threw the ball well at High A and AA (10-6 with a 2.97 ERA, 0.940 WHIP, and 139 strikeouts over 139.1 innings). His walk rate (1.8) reached an elite level while having a reasonable floor in his strikeout rate (9.0).

His fastball projects to be in the mid-90s, with another gear expected. In addition, Graceffo has a developing changeup while adding a slider and curveball.

Fantasy Outlook: With 139.1 innings under his belt last season and plus command, he may be the first option for the Cardinals to turn to if they need a starter at some point in 2023. Graceffo looks ticketed to start the year at AAA. He won’t be drafted in redraft formats, but the fantasy world should follow his spring training progress.

SP Dakota Hudson

Hudson had success in ERA (3.35) and wins (16) in his first year with over 30 starts in 2019, but he killed fantasy teams with his WHIP (1.408) with weakness in strikeouts (136). In 2020, he continued his success in ERA (2.77) over 39 innings with some improvement in his walk rate (3.5). Unfortunately, he blew out his right elbow in September, requiring TJ surgery.

The Cardinals gave him 27.1 innings of work in 2021 between the minors and majors. Hudson allowed four runs and 28 baserunners while picking up 16 strikeouts.

Unfortunately, his arm didn’t respond as well as expected last season due to continued failure in his walk rate (3.9) and emptiness in his strikeout rate (5.0). Hudson finished with a losing ERA (4.45) and a disaster WHIP (1.446).

His average fastball (92.1) was miles away from 2018 (97.4). Hudson did have his success with his cutter (.223 BAA), slider (.320 BAA), and changeup (.222), but batters put too many balls in play vs. his sinker (.304 BAA) and four-seamer (.283 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Hudson can’t have a glimmer of hope in his arm until he figures out how to throw more strikes. He’ll have to pitch his way off the waiver wire in 2023.

Bullpen

CL Ryan Helsley

After going 21-5 in 2016 and 2017 with a 2.25 ERA and 246 strikeouts over 227.1 innings as a starter, Helsley lost value at AAA over parts of three seasons (4.17 ERA and 80 strikeouts over 69 innings). In 2019, he split time between starting and relieving in the minors. St. Louis called him up for good in late July. Over his final 17 games out of the bullpen, Helsley posted a 2.73 ERA and 20 strikeouts over 26.1 innings, but batters hit .279 against him.

Helsley failed to meet expectations in 2020 and 2021 (4.70 ERA, 1.399 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts over 59.1 innings) due to a tremendous walk rate (5.3).

Last season, his arm hit the ground running, leading to 16.1 shutout innings with two hits, three walks, and 27 strikeouts while securing three saves. The Cardinals didn’t give him the free pass to the ninth inning. Helsley did perform well for the rest of the season (1.68 ERA and 67 strikeouts over 48.1 innings) while securing 16 of his 19 saves.

His average fastball (99.7) was one of the best in the game. He showcased an electric slider (.114 BAA) and a plus four-seamer (.169 BAA). Helsley has thrown 266 curveballs in his career, but only one ended in a hit (single).

Fantasy Outlook: Despite greatness on his 2022 resume and improvement in his command, Helsley only has a short sample size of success. He deserves to be the Cardinals’ full-time closer this season, and his ADP (63) in the NFBC ranks him as the ninth reliever drafted. Worth the gamble, as his handcuff is fairly priced.

RP Giovanny Gallegos

Gallegos pitched his way to the bullpen early in his minor league career. Over eight seasons on the farm, he went 23-20 with a 2.78 ERA, 453 strikeouts, and 18 saves. His command was exceptional (1.9 walks per nine), with more growth in his strikeout rate (12.1) in his five seasons at AAA.

His major league career started with a 4.55 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 31.2 innings in 2017 and 2018. Over the last four seasons, Gallegos made a significant step forward with the Cardinals (2.84 ERA, 282 strikeouts, and 33 saves over 228.1 innings). Batters hit .182 against him with repeated success in his strikeout rate (11.1) but a regression in his walk rate (2.7)

Last year, Gallegos had five games in which he allowed two runs or more (13 runs, 15 baserunners, and three home runs over 4.1 innings). When on his game, Gallegos converted 14 of his 16 saves chances with a 1.15 ERA and 0.823 WHIP over 54.2 innings.

His average fastball (94.5) dipped slightly. His slider (.177 BAA), four-seam fastball (.177 BAA), and sinker (.209 BAA) have closing value while adding a show-me changeup (.250 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Gallegos has the command and tools to save games. He developed late in the majors (age 27). Based on his ADP, the love for Ryan Helsley looks to be in the free zone in the high-stakes market (309). I view him as must handcuff while some wise drafters will try to steal him just in case Helsley trips up. At the very least, Gallegos is a manageable arm with a chance at some saves.

RP Jordan Hicks

Over two seasons in the minors, Hicks pitched almost exclusively as a starter. He went 14-5 with a 2.82 ERA and 137 strikeouts over 165.2 innings while never reaching higher than A ball. His failure was tied to poor command (4.0 walks per nine). Hicks missed all of 2020 and most of 2021 due to TJ surgery on his right elbow.

He made the jump to the majors in 2018, where he pitched in relief. Over four seasons with the Cardinals, Hicks went 8-12 with a 4.05 ERA, 174 strikeouts, and 20 saves over 177.2 innings. His underperformance comes from a high walk rate (5.1).

Last year, St. Louis gave him seven starts (5.84 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts over 24.2 innings) after four shutout innings with five strikeouts. Hicks failed to make an impact over his final 32.2 innings (4.68 ERA and 34 strikeouts).

He still has one of the game’s best fastballs (98.0 mph). His slider (.101 BAA) and show-me curveball (.167 BAA) were plus assets while not being far off with his sinker (.256 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: In a way, Hicks is on a similar path as Ryan Helsley. He must throw more strikes to help fantasy teams in some fashion. His ADP (675) doesn’t price in his potential upside this draft season. Only a dart in 2023.

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