2023 Preview: Colorado Rockies

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Colorado Rockies.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies have been in the National League for 30 seasons. They have five playoff appearances, highlighted by their World Series loss in 2007. The Rockies missed the postseason over the past four years with a combined 239-306 record (.439) while never winning the NL West in the team’s history.

Colorado had the worst ERA (5.06) in baseball, which was also repeated by their bullpen stats (29 wins, 28 losses, and 43 saves over 565.2 innings with a 4.85 ERA). They finished 16th in runs (698), 22nd in home runs (149), and 14th in RBIs (669). Their home ballpark helped them in batting average (.254 – 6th), but Colorado only stole 45 bags (29th).

In the offseason, the Rockies signed IF Harold Castro for bench depth while making a pair of minor trades to acquire OF Nolan Jones and SP Connor Seabold. They moved on from SS Jose Iglesias, SP Chad Kuhl, RP Carlos Estevez, RP Alex Colome, and 2B Garrett Hampson.

When Colorado was at their best in previous seasons, their bats created an edge in scoring, thanks to their home field. Over the past couple of seasons, after losing 3B Nolan Arenado and SS Trevor Story, the Rockies have yet to develop any difference-maker bats. OF Charlie Blackmon is no longer an elite player, and OF Kris Bryant ended up being a bust in 2022 due to injuries. 1B CJ Cron has been their only trusted power asset. In 2023, SS Ezequiel Tovar may be the next star player that their franchise needs, but he has only 21 at-bats of experience at AAA. All their other top prospects don’t project to be factors this season.

Their bullpen lacks elite rising arms to lock down the late innings. I don’t see any reliever under 26 slated to start the year on their major league roster. Colorado has a rinse/repeat mindset for their starting rotation that basically begins at the back end of the MLB pitching bus with an endless maze of ace-less starters.

Starting Lineup

OF Yonathan Daza

Daza struggled to earn a major league opportunity over his 11 seasons in the minors despite offering a high batting average (.318 over 2,673 at-bats). His best stolen base output (31) came in 2017 at AAA, but he had fewer than 10 steals in seven different seasons in his career. Daza had a peak of four home runs until 2019 at AAA (11 over 418 at-bats). He didn’t take a lot of walks (4.7) while offering a low strikeout rate (13.4).

Over parts of three seasons for the Rockies, Daza hit .282 with 89 runs, four home runs, 67 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 770 at-bats. His contact batting average graded well in 2021 (.353) and 2022 (.357), but his average hit rate (1.258) was in a weak area in the majors. In 2022, his approach moved closer to his minor league resume. Daza had more success against lefties (.341 with 24 runs, no home runs, and 12 RBIs over 132 at-bats).

Daza had the 306th-ranked exit velocity (84.8) and 308th hard-hit rate (25.0) last season for batters with 250 plate appearances (250).

Fantasy Outlook: For now, Daza is a placeholder for the Rockies to bat leadoff. Even with a high batting average, his on-base percentage has been only .331 in the majors. He’ll be found on the waiver wire in 2023 while offering possible value in two categories (BA and runs).

OF Kris Bryant

After burying fantasy teams over his first 18 games in 2020 (11-for-62 with nine runs, two home runs, and four RBI), Bryant landed on the injured list for two weeks with a left wrist injury. In September, he battled an elbow issue after getting by a pitch and a slight oblique injury. Bryant ended the season with more emptiness in his bats (.232 over 69 at-bats with two home runs and seven RBI).

In 2021, Bryant didn’t reach his previous top form, but he finished with competitive stats in runs (86), home runs (25), and RBIs (73) for his sliding price point in drafts. He ended with a neutral batting average (.265) while adding steals (10) back into his equation.

Unfortunately, his bat was a disaster last season after signing with the Rockies. Bryant helped in batting average (.306) while on a reasonable pace in runs (28). Only five balls left the park with failure with runners on base (RBI rate – 8). His contact batting average (.368) fell in line with his previous career path, but Bryant posted a five-year low in his average hit rate (1.551). He finished with the lowest strikeout rate (14.9) of his career, with a slight regression in his walk rate (9.4).

Bryant battled a back injury in late April, leading to about a month on the injured list. After two games, the same issue cost him another 35 days. From June 29th to July 31st, over 89 at-bats, his bat was on the rise (.348/17/5/10). Unfortunately, a battle with plantar fasciitis led to no playing time over the final two months.

Since 2016, Bryant hasn’t had more than 380 RBIs chances in a season. In addition, his RBI rate (14.2 in his career) has been below a top-run producer (13.0%) over the past six seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: Bryant has a flyball swing path (42.8%) in his career, but he has never had a HR/FB rate higher than 19.0% (15.9 in the majors). His exit velocity is only 87.8 in his career (peak of 89.7 in his rookie season) and his hard-hit rate has only been rated over 40.0% once (2015 – 37.3 in his career). His ADP (128) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship seems fair when considering home ballpark and slot in the batting order. Bryant looks to be on a path to hit .290 with 90 runs, 25+ home runs, and 75 RBIs, with the potential to chip with some steals. When adding in his injury risk, I would limit my exposure if drafting multiple teams.

OF Charlie Blackmon

Over his last three seasons, Blackmon hit .274 with 167 runs, 35 home runs, 198 RBIs, and nine stolen bases over 1,265 at-bats. He finished 98th (-1.01) and 90th (-0.66) in FPGscore for hitters over the past two seasons. His walk rate (5.6) was his lowest since 2014, with a rise in his strikeout rate (18.9 – 16.9 in his career).

Blackmon hit .241 over his first 166 at-bats last year with 23 runs, seven home runs, and 23 RBIs. He regained his form over the next two months (.296/28/9/36 over 203 at-bats). Unfortunately, his bat lost value in August and September (.248 with nine runs, no home runs, and 19 RBIs over 161 at-bats). Blackmon’s only issue late in the season was a hamstring injury in August (four missed games) and a torn meniscus in his left knee (sat out the final eight contests).

His RBI rate (19) has been favorable over the previous four seasons, but Blackmon has never had more than 382 RBI chances in any year. He lost his momentum with his average hit rate (1.538), which was well below his success in power from 2016 to 2019 (1.772).

Blackmon finished last year with the most RBI chances (382) of his career, but he failed to drive himself in due to a second straight season with weakness in his average hit rate (1.518 – 1.772 from 2016 to 2019). In addition, his contact batting average (.331) over the past two seasons fell well below his previous four years (.418, .370, .391, and .379).

His HR/FB rate (11.2) improved slightly while remaining well below his peak seasons (between 16.2 and 19.6). Blackmon posted a low flyball rate (33.9) for the third consecutive season (37.8 in 2019). He finished with a much weaker exit velocity (86.2 – 284th) and hard-hit rate (30.6 – 281st) while only barreling 4.4% of his pitches.

Fantasy Outlook: The days of being an edge in runs with plenty of power and RBIs look to be over, but Blackmon can help a fantasy team if he delivered an 80/20/80 type of season. His ADP (289) in mid-February in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as the 173rd batter drafted. The Rockies thought enough of him to pay him another $18 million this year. Without the last third of 2022, Blackmon was on a productive path for his lower price point.

1B C.J. Cron

The move to Colorado treated Cron well, leading to career highs in back-to-back seasons runs (79), hits (148), and RBIs (102). His contact batting average has been stronger in back-to-back seasons (.374 and .360) while maintaining a high floor in his average hit rate (1.818).

Cron traded power over approach in 2022, leading to him giving up his gains in walk rate (6.8 – 11.5 in 2020 and 2021 and 6.7 in his career). His strikeout rate (26.0) was a high for a full season (21.4% in 2021). Despite hitting 10 home runs with 37 RBIs, left-handed pitching held him to a .208 batting average over 178 at-bats (56 strikeouts).

As exciting as Cron may look as a cheat first baseman, he only hit .197 after the All-Star break with 24 runs, eight home runs, and 33 RBIs over 229 at-bats. His swing and production had a much better vibe at home (.303/53/22/75 over 281 at-bats).

He finished 160th in exit velocity (88.7) and 108th in hard-hit rate (42.3), and 74th in barrel rate (10.8). Cron had fade in his flyball rate (40.1) in back-to-back seasons (46.2 in 2021 and 42.0 in 2020), while setting a five-year low HR/FB rate (17.4).

Fantasy Outlook: Cron gets extra points for his home ballpark, but there were hints of regression in his game. He came to the plate with 94 more runners on base in 2022 while finishing with 105 more at-bats. Cron ranked 44th in FPGscore (-2.52) for hitters, up 19 spots from 2021. His ADP (75) in the high stakes rank him as the 75th batter selected. He projects as a value play this year with potential help in runs, home runs, and RBIs with 500 at-bats. Wrist and hand injuries were part of his regression over the final three months last year. Any rebound in batting average starts with a better approach. The Rockies’ lineup should be better in 2023, helping his counting stats.

3B Ryan McMahon

Despite having one more at-bat in 2022 than in 2021, McMahon only beat his previous stats in one roto category (steals – 7). He finished with a similar contact batting average (.350 – .352 in 2021), but his strikeout rate (26.5) failed to build on its growth in 2021 (24.7 – 27.9 in his career). McMahon did take a few more walks (10.1%) than in his previous two years. His slide in runs came from a weaker lineup hitting behind him in the batting order, resulting in a drop in run rate (35 – 41 in 2021 and 42 in 2020).

His bat came up short again vs. left-handed pitching (.228 with three home runs and 18 RBIs over 149 at-bats). McMahon had an identical batting average (.246) before and after the All-Star break. He saved his power stats over the final two months (.271/29/12/24 over 192 at-bats). His bat was much weaker on the road (.227 with 19 runs, six home runs, and 24 RBIs over 251 at-bats).

McMahon ranked 82nd in exit velocity (91.7 – 82nd) and 46th in hard-hit rate (46.5 – 46th) and 82nd in barrel rate (10.4). His missing link for power came from a lower flyball rate (32.7 – 37.5 in 2021), something he has had throughout his career (32.6%).

Fantasy Outlook: Last season, he ranked 89th in FPGscore (-0.57), down from 69th in 2021. His ADP (216) in the NFBC ranks him as the 127th batter and 17th third baseman selected. McMahon has a four-category neutral skill set with an outside chance to outperform expectations in batting average. I sense a career season in home runs, giving his runs and RBIs a boost. In my thoughts, if I have the correct team structure in front of him.

2B Brendan Rodgers

The Rockies selected him third overall in the 2015 MLB June MLB Draft. Over six seasons in the minors, Rodgers hit .298 with 248 runs, 66 home runs, 248 RBIs, and 24 steals over 1,541 at-bats. His strikeout rate (19.3) should be about league average in the majors while needing to improve on his walk rate (6.4).

Rodgers was a path to start for Colorado on opening day in 2021, but a hamstring injury knocked him out of the lineup for seven weeks. His best play came in June (.308 with eight runs, four home runs, and 15 RBIs over 78 at-bats) and September (.299/17/5/16 over 117 at-bats).

Last season, Rodgers missed some time in April with a back issue and a hamstring injury cost him the final two weeks of the season. He played well against left-handed pitching (.317/30/8/28 over 180 at-bats), but his bat must improve vs. righties (.239 over 347 at-bats with 42 runs, five home runs, and 35 RBIs) to become an elite bat. Rodgers also offered empty stats on the road (.218/26/3/17 over 262 at-bats).

From May 1st to August 20th, he hit .314 with 57 runs, 11 home runs, and 57 RBIs while posting a below-par walk rate (7.0) and growth in his strikeout rate (15.0). On the downside, his average hit rate (1.537) and contact batting average (.329) were five-year lows.

Rodgers finished with a high ground ball rate (52.2) in each in the majors, leading to weakness in his flyball rate (26.7). His exit velocity (90.0 – 85th) and hard-hit rate (45.9 – 55th), which was much higher than 2021 (88.8/40.3). He did show some growth in his barrel rate (7.2 – 6.2 in 2021) and barrel rate (5.3 – 4.6 in 2021).

Fantasy Outlook: Rodgers could pop this season in all categories with a slight change in his swing path. He showed more growth in 2022 than his stats highlighted. His FPGscore (-1.81) ranked 116th for batters. In his pro career, Rodgers has never had 600 plate appearances (581 in 2021). His ADP (265) in the NFBC ranks him 254th for hitters. I expect him to outperform at least half the second baseman drafted in front of him. Let’s be bold with a .285/85/25/80/5 prediction.

OF Randal Grichuk

From 2016 to 2022, Grichuk averaged 72 runs, 27 home runs, and 79 RBIs if he played 150 games in a season. His best overall season came in 2019 (.232/75/31/80/2) thanks to a career-high 596 at-bats.

In his first season in Colorado, he finished 92nd in FPGscore (-0.77) despite producing bland five-category stats (.259/60/19/73/4). Grichuk missed 22 games while not having any significant injuries. His bat was an edge against left-handed pitching (.308/33/11/37 over 172 at-bats) and at home (.307/40/13/50/3 over 267 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (23.6) beat his career average (26.1) for the third consecutive season while having weakness in his walk rate (4.5). He finished with a rebound in contact batting average (.346) and repeated success in his best RBI rate (17).

Grichuk ranked 83rd in exit velocity (90.0) and 86th in hard-hit rate (43.6). His barrel rate (6.8) was a career-low, but well below his peak in 2017 (16.0). He finished with the highest groundball rate (50.9) in his career and a putrid line drive rate (12.9). Grichuk finished with a lower HR/FB rate (13.8 – 16.3 in his career) in back-to-back seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: His career path points to more balls traveling in the air and a greater total landing in the seats. His ADP (249) fits his expectations while having the tools to have a better outcome in his hitting favorable home park. His average hit rate (1.641) is trending lower, but I expect a rebound in 2023. I’ll set him bar at .245 with 75 runs, 25 home runs, and 80 RBIs.

C Brian Serven

Over six seasons in the minors, Serven hit .245 with 175 runs, 44 home runs, 160 RBIs, and six steals over 1,163 at-bats. Despite some success in power, he never had more than 300 at-bats in any year. His bat handled AAA in power (.255/54/21/49 over 329 at-bats). Serven finished with about a league-average walk rate (7.8) and strikeout rate (19.3).

The Rockies gave him 187 at-bats of experience last year, leading to C2 stats (19/6/16) if he had 450 at-bats. His strikeout rate (21.5) graded well and with a step back in his walk rate (6.3). He has a higher average hit rate (1.632) in his minor league career (1.751).

Fantasy Outlook: Colorado doesn’t look ready to earn the bulk of catcher starts, but his power and approach give him a chance to have an increased role this season. Only one player to follow until the Rockies give him more playing time.

SS Ezequiel Tovar

Tovar signed with the Rockies at the age of 16 while being one of the youngest players at each level of the minors. Coming out of the Covid-19 season in 2021, his bat showed growth at A Ball (.309/60/11/54/21 over 298 at-bats). Tovar walked only 14 times (4.3%) while being challenging to strike out (11.7).

He stalled at High A (.239/19/4/18/3 over 134 at-bats) in 2021 while hitting his stride at AA in 2022 (.318 over 264 at-bats with 39 runs, 13 home runs, 47 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases). His walk rate (8.5) beat the league average with a step back to league average in his strikeout rate (21.7).

The Rockies gave him 33 at-bats in the majors last season and 21 at-bats at AAA. His jump in his contact batting average (.416) was a surprise based on his previous resume, but not his ceiling or talent. Tovar also pushed his average hit rate to a more competitive level in 2021 and 2022.

Fantasy Outlook: His glove is major league-ready, and Tovar controls the strike zone well enough to make the jump from AA to the Rockies this season. He’ll bring an edge in stolen bases out of the gate, but he did miss two and a half months of development time last year with a groin injury. His ADP (253) in the NFBC puts him in a range with some other young players. I think he is a year away from being a top-tier fantasy player, but I could be swayed by his look in spring training. Think 10/20 out of the gate while hoping Tovar beats expectations.

3B Elehuris Montero

Montero is another young player in the Rockies’ system that came into the pros at the age of 16. Over seven seasons in the minors, he hit .276 with 320 runs, 75 home runs, 332 RBIs, and nine stolen bases over 2,033 at-bats. His bat played well at AAA (.300/67/21/71/4 over 363 at-bats). His strikeout rate (21.2) and walk rate (9.0) were slightly better than the league average.

With Colorado, Montero flashed power (21 runs, six home runs, and 20 RBIs over 176 at-bats), but he struggled to make contact (32.4% strikeout rate). As a result, his batting average (.233) had more risk.

His average hit rate reached a higher ceiling over the past two seasons, giving him 30 home run upside with more than 500 at-bats.

Fantasy Outlook: Montero looks better suited to play first base while having limitations wherever he plays. His ability to hit for power with an above-neutral batting average may lead to him developing into more of a DH option for the Rockies. The key to his opportunity this year is someone pushing to centerfield or Ezequiel Tovar starting the season in the minors. Montero projects as waiver wire help this year when getting starting at-bats.

OF Michael Toglia

Toglia has the look of a better player than his outcome so far in batting average (.240). He brings an elite power bat from both sides of the plate while showcasing an elite walk rate (13.1). Over his three seasons in the minors, Toglia has 165 runs, 61 home runs, 193 RBIs, and 18 stolen bases over 999 at-bats. He struck out 28.7% of the time, with only 66 at-bats of experience at AAA (22-for-66 with 11 runs, seven home runs, and 17 RBIs).

In his first chance in Colorado. Toglia battled his approach (strikeout rate – 36.7 and walk rate – 7.5). He hit .216 over 111 at-bats with 10 runs, two home runs, and one stolen bases.

His average hit rate has been elite in the minors (1.992), pointing to well over 30 home runs if Toglia puts enough balls in play. His average hit rate (.362) isn’t higher enough at this point of his career to clean up his batting average risk.

Fantasy Outlook: Toglia plays well defensively at first base, pointing to him being the Rockies’ future option behind CJ Cron. I almost think of him as a handcuff in deep draft formats. He isn’t ready to handle major league pitching, but his bat could develop quicker than expected.

Starting Pitching

SP German Marquez

Marquez is on the doorstep of free agency, but the Rockies do have a club option for $16 million in 2024 that may end up being part of a bargaining chip for them at the trade deadline this summer.

The direction of his arm over the past two seasons has been down. Marquez allowed a career-high 30 home runs while losing all steam in his strikeout rate (7.4 – 8.8 in 2021 and 9.0 before last year). He finished with weakness in his walk rate (3.1) for the second consecutive season. From 2018 to 2021, batters hit .247 against Marquez (.263 in 2022).

Over his first 16 starts last year, he allowed four runs or more in 10 games (seven at home), leading to a crushing ERA (5.90) and WHIP (1.533). Much of his damage came via home runs (17) while walking 3.5 batters per nine. For someone looking for a manageable arm with strikeout ability, Marquez posted a 4.12 ERA and 1,200 WHIP over his final 91.2 innings with 73 strikeouts. He allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of those games, but his two disaster showings (15 runs, 20 baserunners, and four home runs over 10 innings) masked some of his second-half improvement.

Left-handed batters (.279 with 17 home runs and 42 walks over 373 at-bats) have been a problem throughout his career (.275 BAA). His flyball rate (31.8) remains low but well above his previous two seasons (26.1 and 26.3). In his career, Marquez has had a HR/FB rate under 15.4% in only one season (2020 – 9.4%).

His average fastball (95.7) remains an edge in velocity. Batters drilled his sinker (.339 BAA with 10 home runs), four-seamer (.302 BAA and seven home runs), and show-me changeup (.412 BAA). Marquez continues to offer an electric curveball (.138 BAA) with a serviceable slider (.246 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Marquez wants to pitch down in the strike zone due to his home ballpark, but he may be better served with a change in philosophy to help his strikeout ability. Ideally, if he pitched up in the zone, the eye level of the batters would change, helping the value of his off-speed pitches. Marquez only threw his four-seamer 30.6% of the time in 2022 (between 38% and 46% from 2018 to 2021), leading to higher usage of his sinker (23.1% – 8.7 in 2021). In addition, he threw fewer changeups (3.0%) over the past two years. His ADP (526) in the NFBC puts him buried in the free-agent pool. Marquez isn’t dead in the water, and his arm will help teams in BestBall-type formats. If the Rockies traded him to the Dodgers, I would expect an ERA under 3.50 with a rebound in command and strikeouts. For now, he is only a rotational start if his stuff shows more life on the mound. I’m going to take a flier on him in 2023. Marquez needs to find a pitch that helps his success vs. left-handed batters.

SP Kyle Freeland

Freeland finished with an identical ERA (4.33) in 2020 and 2021, with a slight fade in his WHIP (1.417). He missed the first seven weeks with a left shoulder injury. Five starts into the year, Freeland allowed 22 runs, 47 baserunners, and nine home runs over 20.2 innings. However, he flew under fantasy manager’s radar over his next 12 starts (5-4 with 2.57 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, .239 BAA, and 68 strikeouts over 70 innings). A hip issue in early September led to a fade in his stats over his final 30 innings (4.80 ERA and 1.667 WHIP).

Consistency was a problem for Freeland last season. He allowed five runs or more in six of his first 18 starts, leading to poor stats in ERA (4.96) and WHIP (1.407) over 101.2 innings. He was easier to hit (.285 BAA) over his final 13 appearances, but Freeland had more success in ERA (3.95), thanks to allowing three runs or fewer in 10 matchups.

His average fastball (90.4) was a career-low while losing more than one mph. Freeland only had success with his curveball (.195 BAA). He struggled against right-handed (.271 BAA) and left-handed (.315 BAA) batters.

Fantasy Outlook: With a fading strikeout rate (6.8) and a diminishing fastball, Freeland falls into the disastrous inning-eater category. He did handle himself well on the road (3.08 ERA and 1.300 WHIP over 87.2 innings), so there is a chance Freeland may be worth a swing as a double starter at times in 2023 if his stuff shows more life on the mound.

SP Austin Gomber

Gomber pitched well at every stop in his minor league career, leading to a 45-25 record over seven seasons with a 2.98 ERA and 566 strikeouts over 574 innings. His walk rate (2.7) is favorable, with strength in his strikeout rate (8.9).

After pitching well over 12 games in AAA (3.42 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 68.1 innings) in 2018, the Cardinals called him up to the majors to add a lefty in the bullpen. However, his arm was up and down over 29 appearances (6-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.507 WHIP). In addition, a biceps injury and shoulder issue cost him most of the 2019 season.

In 2020, Gomber finished with a 1.86 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 29 innings while battling his command (4.7 walks per nine). The Rockies acquired in the deal for 3B Nolan Arenado.

He pitched well over his first 17 starts in 2021 (3.69 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts over 90.1 innings). Gomber missed about a month mid-summer with a left forearm injury. A back issue may have been the reason for his fade over his final six starts (21 runs, 48 base runners, and seven home runs over 25 innings).

His arm was a disaster over his first 12 starts last season (6.43 ERA, 1.476 WHIP, and .296 BAA over 63 innings) despite allowing two runs or fewer in five games. Gomber had a 4.18 ERA, 1,1258 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts over his final 51.2 innings while seeing most of his action out of the bullpen.

He has a below-par fastball (91.1 mph) that was a career-low. However, Gomber had success with his slider (.198 BAA) and curveball (.218 BAA) while losing the feel for his changeup (.258 BAA). Batters had no problem with his four-seamer (.374 BAA and .643 SLG).

Fantasy Outlook: Gomber came out of 2021 with a back injury (pars defect – possible six months to recover), and there is no guarantee that the damage won’t reoccur. His regression in value last year may have been tied to this injury. He has no fantasy value at this point of his career, but his secondary stuff grades better than expected while offering reasonable command. With an uptick in his fastball and a bump in his strikeout rate (6.9 – 8.5 before last year), Gomber may offer some manageable innings in deep formats.

SP Ryan Feltner

After a disappointing season at A ball in 2019 (9-9 with a 5.07 ERA, 1.538 WHIP, and 116 strikeouts over 119 innings), Feltner flashed a much higher season over 21 starts in 2021. He went 8-3 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.243 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts over 112.2 innings. His walk rate (3.1) and strikeouts (10.5) had more growth last year at AAA, but Feltner had some regression in his ERA (3.83) and WHIP (1.297).

The Rockies gave him 19 starts and one relief appearance in 2022, but his arm failed to gain an edge in that area. Feltner allowed too many home runs (1.5 per nine) and struggled to strikeout batters (7.8 per nine) while being easier to hit (.266 BAA).

His average fastball (94.7) beat the league average. He threw two low-volume pitches with success (curveball – .194 BAA and changeup – .122 BAA) with a workable slider (.250 BAA) once Feltner gains more experience in the majors. The first step in his development comes with better command of his fastball in and out of the strike zone (four-seamer – .292 BAA and sinker – .290 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Feltner doesn’t have a higher ceiling but should improve in 2023. Colorado should give him every opportunity to start this year, but his results will be up and down early in his major league career.

SP Jose Urena

Urena brings a low flyball rate (29.0) to the mound with a better-than-unexpected fastball (96.2 mph). The downside to his major league career has been his inability to strikeout batters (6.1 per nine) while walking too many batters (4.0 per in 2022 and 3.3 in his career).

His arm appeared to be on the rise in 2017 and 2018 for the Marlins (23-19 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, and 243 strikeouts over 343.2 innings). Urena lost his way over the past four seasons (11-29 with a 5.36 ERA and 207 strikeouts over 305.2 innings).

He still has a plus slider (.195 BAA), with a serviceable show-me changeup (.143 BAA) against right-handed batters. Urena had extreme risk last season with his sinker vs. lefties (.420 BAA and .539 SLG).

Fantasy Outlook: There is no reason to shop in this aisle as there appears to be doom and gloom from all angles. The Rockies will give him a chance to compete for a starting role, but Urena can’t have success without throwing more strikes and figuring out how to make batters swing and miss more often.

SP Ryan Rolison

The Rockies drafted Rolison with the 22nd overall pick in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over two seasons at Mississippi, he went 16-7 with a 3.45 ERA and 84 strikeouts over 159 innings.

Rolison looked sharp over 29 innings at rookie ball in 2018 (1.86 ERA and 34 strikeouts) and A Ball in 2019 (0.61 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 14.2 innings). After a push to High A in 2019, his arm didn’t look ready (4.87 ERA and 118 strikeouts over 116.1 innings). Rolison posted a favorable walk rate (2.7) and strikeout rate (9.3).

In 2021, a hand injury led to about six weeks on the injured list. Rolison pitched well over three starts at AA (3.07 ERA, two walks, and 20 strikeouts over 14.2 innings). However, he never found his stride over his final 57 innings (5.84 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and eight home runs).

He missed all of last season due to surgery on his left shoulder in June.

His fastball sits in the low 90s with work needed with his curveball and changeup.

Fantasy Outlook: Rolison doesn’t look ready to help in the majors. The Rockies should start him at AAA with the hopes of rekindling his career. If his shoulder is healthy, Colorado doesn’t have much blocking him from the backend of their rotation.

SP Peter Lambert

Over seven seasons in the minors, Lambert went 26-31 with a 3.95 ERA and 452 strikeouts over 532.2 innings. He tends to have a low walk rate (2.2) while still figuring out how to strike out batters (7.6 per nine).

Lambert looked to be improved at AA in 2018 (8-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 75 strikeouts over 92.2 innings), but he did lose his way at AAA (5.06 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts over 115.2 innings).

In his first chance in the majors in 2019, Lambert failed to make an impact (7.25 ERA and 57 strikeouts over 89.1 innings). Over his 19 starts with the Rockies, he allowed three runs or fewer in 10 games. His walk rate (3.6), strikeout rate (5.7), and HR/9 rate (1.8) all came in as liabilities.

After blowing out his right elbow in July in 2020, Lambert only pitched 30.1 innings (20 runs, 55 baserunners, and five home runs) over the past two years due to his recovery from TJ surgery. He battled his right elbow with a forearm issue as well in 2022.

His average fastball (93.6) was about league average. He had an upside changeup (.167 BAA), followed by a curveball and a show-me slider.

Fantasy Outlook: Lambert doesn’t have a pulse in the fantasy market until he shows a heartbeat on the mound. His low strikeout ability doesn’t paint a high ceiling when adding in his home ballpark.

Bullpen

CL Daniel Bard

In 2010, Bard had the feel of an upside bullpen arm for the Red Sox after posting a 1.93 ERA with 76 strikeouts over 74.2 innings. He pitched well the following season (3.33 ERA and 74 strikeouts over 73 innings). Over these two years, Bard did walk too many batters (3.3) per nine innings. Batters only hit .177 against him.

Two years later, he was out of baseball due to significant command issues (6.7 walks per nine) and fade in his fastball (94.0 MPH), leading to a 6.27 ERA and 1.757 WHIP over 60.1 innings.

The return of the Bard came seven years later, in 2020. At age 35, he handled himself well out of the Rockies’ bullpen (4-2 with a 3.65 ERA, 27 strikeouts, and six saves over 24.2 innings). His walk rate (3.6) remained too high.

He pitched so poorly in 2021 (5.21 ERA, 1.599 WHIP, 80 strikeouts, and 20 saves over 65.2 innings) that I didn’t even do an outlook after seeing his massive walk rate (4.9). In the words of Julia Roberts, it was a big mistake…big…huge on my part. Bard ended the season as a value closer while posting an edge in ERA (1.79), WHIP (0.994), and saves (34). He finished the season ranked 29th in FPGscore (3.55).

His average fastball (97.9) still has plenty of life and velocity. Bard worked off a sinker (.202 BAA) and dominating slider (.127 BAA) as his top two pitches while also mixing in two low-volume pitches (changeup – .000 BAA and four-seamer – .250 BAA).

Over his final 12 games, Bard didn’t allow a run over 15 innings with 18 strikeouts, three wins, and eight saves.

Fantasy Outlook: His walk rate (3.7) remains a concern, but the swing from featuring a four-seamer to a sinker in 2022 corrected much of the flaws in results. Bard has an ADP of 134 in the early draft season in the NFBC. He checks enough boxes to be trusted for saves this year, and the Rockies don’t have anyone ready to kick the door down in the ninth inning.

RP Gavin Hollowell

The Rockies added Hollowell in the sixth round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons at St. Johns, he went 8-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 119 strikeouts while converting 19 saves. His arm lost value in his senior season, leading to a 4.23 ERA and 1.435 WHIP over 38.1 innings with 48 strikeouts.

That same season at rookie ball with Colorado, Hollowell had an excellent rebound in all areas (3-0 over 18.2 innings with 30 strikeouts and seven saves). Over the past two seasons in the minors, he posted a 2.85 ERA, 97 strikeouts, and 21 saves over 72.2 innings.

In his first six games in the majors last September, Hollowell struggled in three of his six appearances (six runs, 11 baserunners, and one home run over seven innings with eight strikeouts).

His average fastball (93.2) was about league average. He didn’t allow a hit off his slider, cutter, or changeup (66 combined pitches), but batters have success vs. his sinker (.444 BAA) and four-seamer (.333 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Despite no experience at AAA at age 25, Hollowell has an excellent chance to pitch a good part of the season in the majors. He hasn’t been drafted in any draft championship leagues in the NFBC over the winter. His closing experience is enough of a reason to track this spring and early in the season.

RP Dinelson Lamet

Since having TJ surgery in 2018, Lamet pitched 221.1 innings in the majors with a 3.82 ERA and 300 strikeouts.

Even with success in 2020 (2.09 ERA and 93 strikeouts over 69 innings), his right elbow/biceps flared up in late September, followed by platelet-rich plasma treatment in mid-October.

Lamet landed on the injured list with a right elbow injury before the start of 2021. The Padres limited his pitch count over his first six games (2.57 and 15 strikeouts over 14 innings). His arm delivered 18 innings over his first four starts in June (3.00 and 22 strikeouts). A bad start on June 26th pushed him back on the injured list for two months with a forearm issue. Lamet pitched in relief over his final 11 games (6.39 ERA, 1.737 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts over 12.2 innings).

Last year, Lamet struggled to find his rhythm with the Padres and Rockies (6.12 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 32.1 innings), but his arm did look better in the minors (1.93 ERA over 18.2 innings with 27 strikeouts).

His average fastball (95.6) was about 1.5 mph lower than in 2020 (97.0). Lamet continues to have an elite slider (.170 BAA), which he threw 53.7% of the time last season. Batters handled his four-seamer (.296 BAA) on too many occasions.

Fantasy Outlook: The move to the bullpen gives Lamet a better chance to salvage his career. His high walk rate (5.3) put him in too many bad situations in 2022. Other than walks, he didn’t look that far off over his 19 appearances with Colorado (4.05 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over 20 innings with 29 strikeouts). Lamet has injury risk, but he has the slider and fastball to bounce back this season. Possible dark horse for saves if Daniel Bard trips up.

To read all the MLB Team Outlooks detailed and analyzed by a high-stakes fantasy baseball legend, become a member today!

You can either buy all the Outlooks as a downloadable for a one-time discounted price of $30 or Join the FullTime fam with a Monthly, 6-Month, or Annual Membership which includes everything we do for ALL SPORTS!