2023 Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks missed the postseason over the past five years. Arizona won the World Series (2001) in their fourth season in the league. Over the team’s 25-year history, they made the playoffs five other times while winning five NL West titles.

Their pitching staff ranked 23rd in ERA (4.25) with a weaker finish in their bullpen (30 wins, 41 losses, and 33 saves over 558 innings with a 4.58 ERA – 25th). The Diamondbacks scored 702 runs (14th), hit 173 home runs (14th), and drove in 658 runs (18th). They had the sixth most stolen bases (104) while ranking poorly in batting average (.230 – 27th).

Arizona shipped C Dalton Varsho to the Blue Jays for C Gabriel Moreno and OF Lourdes Gurriel. They acquired OF Kyle Lewis for OF Cooper Hummel in a minor deal. The Diamondbacks signed 3B Evan Longoria, RP Andrew Chafin, RP Miquel Castro, and RP Scott McGough. Arizona decided not to bring back OF Jordan Luplow, RP Reyes Moronta, RP Caleb Smith, and RP Ian Kennedy.

Arizona’s pitching staff has risk in the bullpen with an open competition for the closer role. SP Zac Gallen anchors the starting rotation. Arizona hopes to get some good innings out of SP Merrill Kelly and SP Madison Bumgarner while needing a couple of arms to step up at the back of their rotation. Four of their top 10 prospects have AAA experience, giving Arizona’s fans hope that the playoff hunt isn’t far off.

The future of their offense lies in the bats of OF Corbin Carroll, OF Alex Thomas, OF Jake McCarthy, and C Gabriel Moreno. The Diamondbacks need a healthy season out of 2B Ketel Marte and 3B Josh Rojas, plus OF Lourdes Gurriel needs to find the magic in his bat that he showed in 2021. Arizona will score more runs in 2023, but their pitching staff sets the tone for a chance at a winning record.

Starting Lineup

OF Corbin Carroll

Over his first 49 games in the minors, Carroll hit .316 with 45 runs, four home runs, 25 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases over 177 at-bats. He missed out on a year of development time in 2020 while seeing his next season cut short by a shoulder injury that required surgery. His bat hit the ground running in 2022 between AA and AAA (.307 with 89 runs, 24 home runs, 62 RBIs, and 31 steals over 362 at-bats). His walk rate (15.5) screams top-the-order bat, but his strikeout rate (23.6) came in just above the league average.

The Diamondbacks gave Carroll 104 at-bat experience last season. He finished with a few more strikeouts (27.0%) and a weaker walk rate (7.0%), but his pedigree says he is a stud in the making. His swing path delivered a low number of flyballs (27.4% in the majors and 31.5% in AAA) while offering a plus HR/FB rate (20.0 – 24.1 at AAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Carroll is a player for the fantasy world to get right this year. His ADP (74) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship puts him in an area with proven bats. I respect his starting point in contract batting average (.435) and average hit rate (1.898) in the minors. In his case, size doesn’t matter so think of Mookie Betts early in his career with more power and speed while waiting to shave off some strikeouts to help his ceiling in batting average. His light shines a bright shade of green, but Carroll still has to stay healthy.

OF Jake McCarthy

McCarthy has been in the minors for four seasons but only had 883 at-bats. He hit .285 with 159 runs, 25 home runs, 133 RBIs, and 79 stolen bases. His bat played well at AAA in 2021 and 2022, leading to a .307 batting average over 332 at-bats over 71 runs, 14 home runs, 58 RBIs, and 23 steals. In addition, his walk rate (9.6) graded well with league average strikeout rate (210).

He made the major league roster out of spring training last year, but McCarthy hit way back to the minors (3-for-25 with three runs, one home run, and one RBI). When the Diamondbacks needed an outfield bat in May, they recalled him creating some waiver wire buzz for teams looking for steals. After 18 games (.278/13/2/8/1 over 54 at-bats), Arizona shipped him back to AAA. McCarthy became an excellent addition to fantasy teams over his final 68 games (.302/37/5/34/22 over 242 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (21.5) in the majors matched his minor league resume, but he took fewer walks (6.5%). McCarthy had a competitive contact batting average in the minors (.374) and with Arizona (.370) while showing a higher average hit rate in the minors (1.683) than his first 380 at-bats with the Diamondbacks (1.529).

McCarthy didn’t check the edge box in exit velocity (87.4 – 237th) or hard-hit rate (33.7 – 253rd). However, he continued to have a groundball swing path (49.2% in Arizona and 50.0% in AAA in 2022).

Fantasy Outlook: The checkpoint for McCarthy is his run rate in 2021 and 2022 at all levels. He has plus speed while playing excellent defense, setting up a starting job all season in 2023 if healthy. His ADP (121) in the NFBC fits his speed profile while also adding his possible double-digit power. If he gets 550 at-bats, McCarthy will deliver top-15 stats in FPGscore while offering some similarities to Carl Crawford in his prime while having a better walk rate.

2B Ketel Marte

In 2019, Marte set career-highs in at-bats (569), runs (97), home runs (32), RBIs (92), and steals (10), leading to an impact season. He finished with a league-average walk rate (8.4) while being tough to strike out (13.7%).

Marte ended up being a bust for fantasy teams in 2020 due to a decline in his power stats (two home runs and 17 RBIs) and a regression in his contact batting average (.325 – .386). He missed 10 days in September due to a left wrist injury, which was a big part of his power outage.

In 2021, a hamstring injury derailed him after the first week of the season and again in late June. As a result, Marte ended up missing about 11 weeks. His season started with a .370 batting average over 135 at-bats with 24 runs, four home runs, and 21 RBIs. Over the final two months, he hit .283 with 28 runs, 10 home runs, and 29 RBIs over 205 at-bats.

Marte missed another 25 games last season due to a hand issue and two hamstring injuries. His bat was worthless in April (.146/5/1/6/1 over 82 at-bats). Despite hitting for a high average (.325) in May and June over 160 at-bats, he delivered short counting stats (31 runs, three home runs, 16 RBIs, and three steals). His season ended with decline in each proceeding month (.216 over 32 runs, eight home runs, 30 RBIs, and one steal over 250 at-bats).

His average hit rate (1.695) fell in line with his career path with the exception of 2019 (1.802), when Marte drilled 32 home runs. He had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.302 – .386 in 2021) while having too many ups and downs to trust over the past five years.

Marte continues to bring a high exit velocity (90.1 – 81st), but he finished with a step back in his hard-hit rate (41.9 – 48.4 in 2022) and a fade in his barrel rate (6.1 – 8.9 in 2021). Marte had a better swing path for flyballs (39.0% – 32.2 in his career), but his HR/FB rate (7.8) was well below 2021 (15.6) and his top power season (19.9).

Fantasy Outlook: Marte went from fantasy darling in his breakthrough season to a player to avoid for most fantasy drafters this year. Injuries have held him back over the past three seasons. His ADP (208) in the NFBC falls in the cheat second base zone. The change in lineup structure for the Diamondbacks should lead to Marte sliding to third in the batting order. He projects as an asset in batting average with 80/20/80 potential if he stays on the field for 550 at-bats. I expect him to have the most RBI chances of his career.

OF Lourdes Gurriel

Gurriel had 500 at-bats for the first time in 2021, leading to career highs in all categories except batting average. His RBI (21) was exceptional, but he only had 320 RBI chances. On the downside, Gurriel finished with a four-year low in contact batting average (.347). His bat carried fantasy teams in September (.301/19/7/30 over 93 at-bats).

Last season, Gurriel lost his power stroke, highlighted by a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.371) while continuing to offer strength in his RBI rate (17). After low production in April (.288/12//10 over 80 at-bats), he had an empty May (.189/2/0/8 over 74 at-bats) while missing some time with a hamstring issue. His swing came around over the next two months (.368 over 182 at-bats), but his power (30 runs, three home runs, and 24 RBIs) remained a lost skill. Gurriel drove the bus home with another quiet 117 at-bats (.239/8/0/10) before seeing his season end in September with a hamstring injury.

In October, he had left wrist surgery, which looks to be the cause of his lost power. Gurriel posted his lowest strikeout rate (16.8) in his time in the majors, with a below-par walk rate (6.3). His exit velocity (90.6 – 56th) and hard-hit rate (45.7 – 58th) supported a much higher output in home runs. He had a sharp decline in his HR/FB rate (4.2 – 15.3 in 2021 and 20.4 in 2020) while posting a career-low flyball rate (31.7).

Fantasy Outlook: There’s a hidden gem in Gurriel’s bat. His “lack of stats” will lead to most drafters avoiding him in 2023. His RBI rate in his career should be the best on the Diamondback, pointing to a chance to hit cleanup with a ton of speed and plenty of runners on base. His ADP (227) in the high-stakes market is mispriced based on his possible ceiling. I see a floor of a .280/80/20/80 hitter while understanding he could beat all these projections by 20% or more.

1B Christian Walker

Walker has a respectable eight-season resume in the minors (.284 with 127 home runs and 488 RBIs over 2,89 at-bats). He spent part of six seasons at AAA (.278 with 322 runs, 94 home runs, and 346 RBIs over 2,059 at-bats).

The Diamondbacks gave him starting at-bats (529) in 2019, leading 86 runs, 29 home runs, 73 RBIs, and eight steals while hitting .259. He had risk in his strikeout rate (25.7) while doing a good job taking walks (11.1%). In 2020, Walker was on pace for 95 runs, 19 home runs, and 92 RBIs, with a bump in his batting average (.271).

Walker landed on the injured list twice over the first two months, leading to five missed weeks. As a result, he only had 25 runs, four home runs, and 21 RBIs over 197 at-bats at the All-Star break. His bat never rounded into power form over his final 204 at-bats (.265 with 30 runs, six home runs, and 25 RBIs).

Last season, he set career-highs in at-bats (583), hits (141), home runs (36), and RBIs (94) while having more fade in his contact batting average (.312). Walker finished on the uptick in batting average (.305 with 39 runs, 13 home runs, 42 RBIs, and two RBIs) over his final 233 at-bats.

His approach beat the league average in strikeout rate (19.6) and walk rate (10.3) for the first time in his major league career. Walker posted a new top in his average hit rate (1.972). He improved his flyball rate (44.2 – 38.7 in 2021) in back-to-back seasons, with a rebound in his HR/FB rate (17.7 – 8.7 in 2021 and 12.1 in 2020). His exit velocity (90.0 – 83rd) and hard-hit rate (44.0 – 80th) were in line with his previous career path.

Fantasy Outlook: The success of Walker last season puts him in a much higher conversation at first base in 2023. His ADP (135) in the NFBC ranks 11th at first base. The growth in his approach and improved power point to a better player. The rise in flyballs leads to easier outs and a lower ceiling in batting average. Despite this risk, Walker may have a gear to reach .250 with neutral value in runs and RBIs while continuing to have a 25+ home run swing.

3B Evan Longoria

Longoria had a slight rebound in his game in 2019 while missing a couple of weeks in July with a left foot injury. In 2020, he was on pace for 70 runs, 19 home runs, and 76 RBIs over 521 at-bats if major league baseball played an entire season.

In 2021, Longoria missed 81 games with injuries to his hamstring, side, left shoulder, and right hand. With an entire season of games, his stats doubled came to 90 runs, 26 home runs, and 92 RBIs.

He missed another 73 games last season (finger, shoulder, oblique, hamstring, and broken thumb), with almost the same output in home runs (14) and RBIs (42) as in 2021, with 13 more at-bats (266). His contact batting average (.355) and average hit rate (1.846) have been almost identical in back-to-back years.

His strikeout rate (27.9 – 23.4 in 2021 and 20.4 in his career) was the highest of his career by a wide margin. Longoria continues to have an above-average walk rate (9.1).

Over the last six seasons, Longoria hit .253 with 283 runs, 90 home runs, 325 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 2,258 at-bats.

He finished with a balanced swing path and another push higher in his HR/FB rate (18.2). Longoria ranked 41st in exit velocity (91.1) and 43rd in hard-hit rate (46.8).

Fantasy Outlook: Longoria has settled into a replacement-type player with some help in home runs and RBIs when on the field. He missed 154 games over the past two seasons while regressing against right-handed pitching (.215 with eight home runs and 20 RBIs over 149 at-bats). At best, a waiver wire fill-in with risk in runs, batting average, and steals.

SS Josh Rojas

Rojas showed growth in his game between AA and AAA in 2019 (.332 with 89 runs, 23 home runs, 83 RBIs, and 33 stolen bases over 416 at-bats). Over five seasons in the minors, he hit .289 with 214 runs, 44 home runs, 186 RBIs, and 73 stolen bases over 1,118 at-bats. In addition, his walk rate (11.7) offered top-of-the-order upside with a favorable strikeout rate (16.2).

In his first chance with a starting opportunity with the Diamondbacks in 2021, Rojas struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 11) with a dull average hit rate (1.555). He continued to take walks (10.6%) with a below-par strikeout rate (24.9). Arizona gave Rojas full-time starting at-bats in May and June (.281 with 32 runs, seven home runs, 18 RBIs, and two stolen bases over 203 at-bats). He didn’t have over three home runs or 10 RBIs in any other month.

Last season, an oblique injury led to Rojas missing the first month while also sitting in some games in late May with a hand issue. His bat wasn’t impactful over his first 165 at-bats (.249/25/4/18/5). Over his final 80 games, he hit .281 with 41 runs, five home runs, 38 RBIs, and 18 steals over 278 at-bats. Rojas ended the season with the lowest walk rate (19.2) of his short career, with repeated strength in his walk rate (10.8).

His exit velocity (88.8 – 158th) and hard-hit rate (36.1 – 215th), and barrel rate (4.5 – 248th) ranked below the league average. Rojas finished with a career-high flyball rate (35.2) but regression in his HR/FB rate (7.4 – 11.3 in 2021).

Fantasy Outlook: The trick for Rojas is holding onto a favorable spot in the batting order. His ADP (200) in the NFBC ranks him the 18th option at second base and 16th at third base. With 500 at-bats, I view him as a .270/75/12/65/20 player.

C Gabriel Moreno

The Blue Jays signed Moreno in 2017 at 17 out of Venezuela. In 2021, he dominated AA (.373 with 29 runs, eight home runs, and 45 RBIs over 126 at-bats), leading to a call-up to AAA. Unfortunately, a broken thumb (hit by a pitch) led to almost 11 weeks on the injured list in late June. Last season, Moreno hit for average (.315) over 238 at-bats at AAA, but his average hit rate (1.333) drifted into a much weaker area, leading to only three home runs.

He has an aggressive feel at the plate, but Moreno is challenging to strike out (12.4%) while offering a below-par walk rate (6.8). His defense isn’t quite there yet, but he has the foundation skill set to be an excellent major league defensive catcher.

With Toronto, Moreno held his own at the plate over 69 at-bats (.319/10/1/7) with a low strikeout rate (11.0). His exit velocity (89.2) was in the top 40% in the league, with a low hard-hit rate (32.8).

Fantasy Outlook: The Diamondbacks’ rebuilding process led to them trying to get younger at catcher by shipping C/OF Dalton Varsho to the Blue Jays. Moreno’s swing path was off in 2022, resulting in a jump in his groundball rate at AAA (52.6%) and the majors (57.4%). Arizona will give him plenty of starts this year, but Carson Kelly will get in the way. Moreno feels like a light-hitting power catcher, but there is more in his bat than his minor league resume shows. His ADP (246) in the high-stakes market ranks him as the 18th catcher. Moreno will help a fantasy team in batting average, and I expect him to deliver a combined 18 to 20 home runs and steals if given at least 350 at-bats while a higher ceiling if given more playing time.

OF Alek Thomas

Arizona drafted Thomas in the second round of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .313 with 237 runs, 34 home runs, 160 RBIs, and 45 stolen bases over 1,243 at-bats. In his half of a year of experience at AAA, Thomas hit .349 over 264 at-bats with 57 runs, 12 home runs, 37 RBIs, and 10 steals.

He had strength in his contact batting average (.392, .392, .405, and .387) in each year in the minors, but Thomas failed to repeat this success in his rookie season with Arizona (contact batting average – .287).

Thomas struggled against left-handed pitching (.198 with six runs, one home run, and six RBIs over 91 at-bats) with the Diamondbacks. His season started with reasonable success before the All-Star break (.250/28/7/22/4 over 212 at-bats), but he played his way out of the lineup over his final 169 at-bats (.207/17/1/17).

His strikeout rate (18.0) almost matched his minor league resume (18.5) while taking fewer walks (5.4% – 10.1 on the farm). Thomas continues to have a high groundball rate (58.0 – over 50.0 % in his time at AAA), leading to a short flyball rate (25.0 – 23.0 at AAA).

Fantasy Outlook: His defense grades well, and his bat should continue to improve. Thomas comes off the board at pick 513 in the early draft season in the NFBC. Thomas will help in batting average and speed, and he has more power than most would believe. Unfortunately, Thomas looks to be a platoon player this year while needing more loft to help his home run total.

C Carson Kelly

Over the last four seasons, Kelly hit .231 over 1,057 at-bats with 138 runs, 43 home runs, 147 RBIs, and two stolen bases. His strikeout rate (20.1) has been league average in his career while delivering a favorable walk rate (10.1). Kelly is only a .207 hitter against right-handed pitching with 24 home runs and 90 RBIs over 783 at-bats.

He had a regression in his average hit rate (1.582) for the third consecutive season, along with a sharp decline in his HR/FB rate (7.1 – 12.6 in 2021). His swing continues to deliver a low exit velocity (87.7) and hard-hit rate (36.8)

Kelly hit .255 with 272 runs, 54 home runs, and 288 RBIs over 2,278 at-bats over nine seasons in the minors. He played well in four years at AAA (.280 with 93 runs, 19 home runs, and 99 RBIs over 668 at-bats) while offering a high walk rate (12.3) and a better strikeout rate (13.6).

Fantasy Outlook: The addition of Gabriel Moreno puts Kelly in the hot seat for at-bats in 2023. His swing can offer C2 stats if given 400 at-bats, but he may need a trade during the year to add more value to his fantasy profile. Kelly ranks as the 29th catcher in the NFBC in mid-February.

SS Jordan Lawlar

The Diamondbacks selected Lawlar with the sixth selection in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft out of Jesuit College. In his first full season in the minors last season, he blasted his way through four levels of the minors, leading to a .305 batting average with 98 runs, 16 home runs, 62 RBIs, and 39 stolen bases over 389 at-bats. His walk rate (12.5) graded well while starting his pro career with some risk in strikeouts (24.9%).

He took a pitch to the face in the Arizona Fall League in late October, putting him on the shelf for a couple of months. Lawlar only has 85 at-bats of experience at AA (.212/18/4/11/2), so Arizona should start him there again in 2023 while expecting a quick promotion to AAA.

Fantasy Outlook: The major league is cleared for Lawlar to be a long-time starter for the Diamondbacks. He’ll start the year at age 22, with an eye on being in the big league by summer. Lawlar must is a follow early in the season, especially for fantasy teams looking for help at shortstop. His next step in his growth is lower his strikeout rate.

OF Kyle Lewis

After playing well late in 2019 (.268/6/13) over 75 at-bats, Lewis gave fantasy managers a productive season with Seattle in 2020. His stats projected over 550 at-bats would have come to 99 runs, 29 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases.

He started 2021 on the injured list with a right knee injury. Lewis struggled through 36 games (.246 with 15 runs, five home runs, and 11 RBIs over 130 at-bats) before seeing his season end after having surgery in June. A setback in September ended his year with no more playing time. He started last season on the injured list with his lingering knee issue.

Lewis struggled over his 56 at-bats with Seattle (.143/6/3/5), but he did regain his power over 42 games at AAA (.256/29/12/34 over 147 at-bats). His strikeout rate (29.7) has held him back in the majors, but Lewis does take his fair share of walks (11.0%).

Over his 463 career at-bats with the Mariners, Lewis hit .244 with 68 runs, 25 home runs, 57 RBIs, and seven steals. His average hit rate (1.769) supports 30 home run upside.

Fantasy Outlook: Knee injuries hindered his development in 2017 and 2018 while being Baseball America’s College Player of the Year in 2016 (.395 with 70 runs, 20 home runs, 72 RBIs, and six steals over 223 at-bats). Lewis will compete for a bench role for the Diamondbacks this spring. His best path to at-bats looks to be at DH.

Starting Pitching

SP Zac Gallen

In 2019, Gallen blossomed at AAA (9-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 112 strikeouts over 91.1 innings). He set a career-best in his walk rate (1.7) and strikeout rate (11.0). Over 15 starts in the majors, he went 3-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 96 strikeouts over 80 innings. His strikeout rate (10.8) held value while struggling to throw strikes (4.3 walk rate). In 2020, Gallen almost repeated his rookie season (2.75 ERA and 82 strikeouts over 72 innings)

A week before the start of 2021, Gallen suffered a hairline fracture to his right forearm, leading to him free-falling in drafts in the high-stakes market. Instead, he only missed the first two weeks of the year. After five starts, Gallen posted a 3.04 ERA and 32 strikeouts over 26.1 innings despite walking 14 batters. His elbow issue flared up again in early May, costing him about six weeks. He battled home runs over his final 18 games (18 over 94.2 innings), leading to a 4.66 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, and 107 strikeouts. Gallen walked 3.3 batters per nine innings over this span. He also missed two weeks in early July with a hamstring injury.

His arm bounced back in a big way last season, leading to a career-low in ERA (2.54) and career-highs in innings pitched (184) and strikeouts (192) while leading the National League in WHIP (0.913) and lowest hits per nine innings (5.9). He did lose a notch on his strikeout rate (9.4 – 10.4 before last season) despite his best walk rate (2.3). Gallen was the best pitcher in baseball over his final 15 starts (8-2 with a 1.58 ERA, 0.753 WHIP, .159 BAA, and 108 strikeouts over 97 innings), highlighted by 41.1 inning shutout run with 16 hits, eight walks, and 46 strikeouts.

His average fastball (94.0) was a career-high. Batters had a challenging time hitting his four-seamer (.171 BAA), changeup (.210 BAA), curveball (.173 BAA), and show-me slider (.188 BAA). Gallen also had improved success with his cutter (.237 BAA),

Fantasy Outlook: Gallen’s only negative from last year was two missed starts to begin the season due to a thumb injury. Based on his stats, he looks poised to push his strikeouts over 200 with a continued edge in ERA and WHIP. His ADP (74) in the NFBC doesn’t match up with his final value in 2022 in FPGscore (5.61 – 11th). Arizona should be much better this year, giving Gallen a higher ceiling in wins. I hate being a year late to the dance, but there isn’t a reason to fade him in 2023.

SP Merrill Kelly

Kelly pitched well over his first five starts (2.59 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 31.1 innings) in 2020. Then, he developed a blood clot in his right shoulder in late August, leading to thoracic outlet syndrome. Matt Harvey had a similar surgery in 2016 and never regained his form.

In 2021, Kelly struggled over his first three starts (15 runs, 27 baserunners, and four home runs over 14 innings) before settling down over his next 41.2 innings (3.46 ERA, .242 BAA, and 42 strikeouts). Kelly went 5-4 over his following 84.2 innings with a 3.93 ERA and 66 strikeouts. A battle with Covid-19 led to six weeks on the injured list, and he struggled over his final three contests (10 runs, 28 baserunners, and three home runs over 15.2 innings).

Over his first 64 starts for the Diamondbacks, Kelly went 23-27 with a 4.27 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, and 317 strikeouts over 372.2 innings. Last season, he pulled a rabbit out of his cap, leading to the best season of his career (13-8 with a 3.37 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, and 177 strikeouts over 200.1 innings). Despite his success, Kelly was a disaster over his final eight starts (4.86 ERA) due to 12 home runs allowed over 50 innings. He allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 33 starts.

His walk rate (2.7) remains favorable despite some regression, but Kelly did have a rebound in his strikeout rate (8.0). He issued 38 of his 61 walks to left-handed batters, leading to a poor BB:K ratio (1.87).

His average fastball (92.4) was a career-high. Kelly had success with his four-seamer (.195 BAA), curveball (.226 BAA), and cutter (.214 BAA) while offering a serviceable changeup (.240) and sinker (.248 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: With any downtick in his fastball, Kelly will fade to a backend inning-eating arm. He’s coming off a career season, something I tend to avoid. His ADP (246) in the high-stakes market is 235 picks lower than 2021 (481). Kelly ranked 40th in FPGscore (1.51) last season. I only see an arm worthy of a 3.75 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts with 32 starts.

SP Madison Bumgarner

Over his three seasons with Arizona, Bumgarner went 15-29 with a 4.98 ERA and 266 strikeouts over 346.2 innings. He had the worst year of his career in 2022 (7-15 with a 4.88 ERA and 112 strikeouts over 158.2 innings). He finished with a career-low in his strikeout rate (6.4). Bumgarner had an ERA of over 4.00 every month after April. Over his final 11 starts, he had a 6.50 ERA and 1.492 WHIP over 62.1 innings.

Over 10 seasons with the Giants, Bumgarner went 119-92 with a 3.14 ERA and 1,784 strikeouts over 1,836 innings.

His average fastball (91.0) has a slight rebound in velocity. Batters continued to struggle to hit his curveball (.228 BAA) and changeup (.143 BAA), but Bumgarner had too much downside via his four-seamer (.319 BAA and .600 SLG) and cutter (.302 BAA and .509 SLG).

Fantasy Outlook: Arizona has him under contract for two more seasons. Bumgarner has no fantasy value until he shows life on the mound. He’ll live on the waiver wire in 2023.

SP Tommy Henry

The Diamondbacks added Henry in the second round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft after making a step forward at Michigan (12-5 with a 3.27 ERA and 135 strikeouts over 124.0 innings. He gained value due to an improving walk rate (1.9).

Over his three seasons in the minors, Henry went 8-10 with a 4.51 ERA and 242 strikeouts over 231.2 innings. His lack of success came from regression in his command (3.8 walks per nine) and struggles with home runs (35).

Arizona gave him nine starts last season, and he was up to the task over his first five games (3-2 with a 3.25 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 27.2 innings) despite walking 12 batters. Unfortunately, Henry ended the year with failure in three of his four starts (8.38 ERA, 1.707 WHIP, and nine home runs over 19.1 innings).

His average fastball (91.9) came in below the league average. Henry has success with his slider (.229 BAA) and curveball (.167 BAA), but he battled his changeup (.294 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Henry brings WHIP risk early in his career until his command improves. Home runs allowed invites some disaster starts. He’ll compete for a starting job in spring training.

SP Drey Jameson

Based on his four starts with Arizona (3-0 with a 1.48 ERA, 1.110 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts over 24.1 innings), Jameson will get more attention than he possibly deserves in the fantasy market this year. His arm has been unimpressive over three seasons in the minors (12-19 with a 5.29 ERA, 1.392 WHIP, and 289 strikeouts over 255 innings). However, he graded well in walk rate (3.2) and strikeout rate (10.2) while batting home runs (1.3 per nine).

Jamerson handled AA (5-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 92 strikeouts over 65 innings), showcasing his potential. Unfortunately, batters beat him like a drum at AAA (6.95 ERA, 1.588 WHIP, and 109 strikeouts over 114 innings). He allowed four runs or more in 13 of his 21 starts.

His average fastball (96.7) had a special feel, but batters teed up his four-seamer (.287 BAA) and sinker (.309 BAA) last season between AAA and the majors. Jamerson has an electric slider (.177 BAA) with plenty of work to do with his changeup (.296 BAA) and curveball (.308 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Underneath the hood, Jamerson projects well as a potential elite ninth-inning arm based on his big fastball and swing-and-miss slider. His ADP (397) in the NFBC is based on him starting, something I would temper my expectations on in 2023. On the positive side, a drafter may stumble on some saves they didn’t expect. Jamerson will fight for a starting job this spring, and he is a much better arm than he showed at AAA. Keep an open mind while paying close attention to his role and success in spring training.

SP Ryne Nelson

Nelson came out of college with a 4.25 ERA over 101.2 innings with 158 strikeouts. However, his lack of command (5.7 walks per nine) led to him sliding to the second round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft.

Over his first two seasons in the minors, he went 7-3 with a 3.13 ERA and 189 strikeouts over 135 innings. Nelson handled himself well at AA (3.51 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 77 innings). In 2022, he lost his way at AAA (10-5 with a 5.43 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, and 128 strikeouts over 136 innings) while posting weakness in his strikeout rate (8.5 – 10.5 in his career).

Despite his struggles, Nelson surprised over his three starts in Arizona (three runs, nine hits, and 16 strikeouts over 18.1 innings). Unfortunately, his season ended with right shoulder inflammation in late September.

His average fastball (93.6) was league average. Nelson worked off a winning slider (.225 BAA) and curveball (.200 BAA), but his changeup (.264 BAA) held him back in the majors.

Fantasy Outlook: His AA resume points to an upside arm, but Nelson must succeed at AAA before getting another chance with the Diamondbacks. His spring training will dictate his early 2023 fantasy value.

SP Zach Davies

Davies has a soft-tossing arm (89.4 MPH fastball) that parallels Kyle Hendricks. His best pitch in a changeup (.179 BAA), which he threw over 33% of the time in 2022. Davies had a serviceable sinker (.267 BAA), but he allowed 13 home runs off of it. His low-volume cutter (.229 BAA) helped, while his curveball (.379 BAA) was a liability.

He pitched well in 2020 for San Diego (7-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 63 strikeouts over 69.1 innings). Davies posted the highest strikeout rate (8.2) of his career. Like Hendricks, he had a more challenging time with right-handed batters (.254 with seven home runs over 138 at-bats) while owning lefties (.171 BAA).

Unfortunately, Davies lost his way over the past two seasons (4.97 ERA, 1.456 WHIP, and 216 strikeouts over 282.1 innings). A big part of his failure was regression in his command (4.0 walks per nine) and 46 home runs allowed. Over 20 starts from April 21st to September 2nd last year, Davies had a 3.56 ERA and 1.177 WHIP over 103.2 innings with 81 strikeouts.

Fantasy Outlook: Davies looks to be a bridge arm until one of the Diamondbacks’ young prospects can seize a starting opportunity. At best, he is a spot fantasy starter if he succeeds on the field with improved command.

Bullpen

RP Mark Melancon

Over two seasons with the Braves, Melancon went 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 38 strikeouts while converting 22 of his 24 saves.

The move to San Diego in 2021 led to him leading the National League in saves (39). Melancon pitched well over his first 46 innings (1.96 ERA, 39 strikeouts, and 33 saves) while blowing the lead in four games. However, he finished some regression over his 18.2 innings of work (2.89 ERA, .278 BAA, and 20 strikeouts). His walk rate (3.5) was his highest since 2009.

His arm fell out of form last season, leading to a severe drop in his strikeout rate (5.6 – 8.0 in his career) while having repeated failure in his walk rate (3.4 – 2.4 in his career). Melancon appeared to be on a positive track after his first nine appearances (1.08 ERA and five saves over 8.1 innings), but he only had three strikeouts. Eight games later, he crushed fantasy teams after allowing 11 runs and 16 baserunners over six innings) while still converting four of his five save chances. His arm did look better over his next 22 outings (2.66 ERA, 19 strikeouts, and five saves over 20.1 innings), but Melancon stumbled home with a 4.66 ERA, 1.453 WHIP, and nine walks over his final 21.1 innings.

He lost his confidence in his cutter (.299 BAA – .247 BAA in 2021 and .263 in his career). Melancon threw it 62.8% of the time last season while having a career-low in velocity (90.6 mph). In addition, his curveball (.277 BAA – .165 in 2021) turned into a liability.

Fantasy Outlook: The luster of Melancon closing left the building into 2022, but he still has 262 career saves. With no hint of an injury, his only outtake from last year is fading pitches mixed with diminishing confidence. As a result, he’ll be found on the side of the waiver wire road in 2023.

RP Kyle Nelson

Over five seasons in the minors, Nelson went 13-8 with a 2.81 ERA, 211 strikeouts, and 18 saves over 150.1 innings. He lost his command at AAA (6.5 walks per nine) over three different seasons, leading to a poor ERA (4.91) and WHIP (1.537).

Last year, the Diamondbacks gave him 43 appearances to prove his worth in their bullpen. Nelson was challenging to hit (.194 BAA), leading to success in ERA (2.19) and WHIP (1.081) despite falling short of his minor league career (12.6) in strikeout rate (7.3). He also finished with weakness in his walk rate (3.4 – 3.3 in the minors).

His average fastball (91.8) doesn’t project well for a closing arm, but batters only hit .163 against his four-seamer. Nelson threw an elite slider (.202 BAA) as his top usage pitch (63.9%).

Fantasy Outlook: All the pieces for his arm haven’t aligned in the majors. Nelson has fill-in closing experience, something he won’t have with Arizona without more dominance in strikeouts and better command. He did have the same success against right-handed and left-handed batters in 2022 (.194 BAA).

RP Joe Mantiply

After a dull start to his major league career from 2016 to 2021(5.10 ERA, 1.741 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts over 47.1 innings), Mantiply gave the Diamondbacks some surprising innings last season. He allowed only one run over his first 26.2 innings while walking one batter and striking out 26. His success led to two vulture saves.

Based on his direction and the fading arm of Mark Melancon, Mantiply appeared to be a flier in Arizona’s bullpen for saves. Unfortunately, his pitches lost momentum over his final 33.1 innings (4.86 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, .284 BAA, six home runs, and 35 strikeouts over 33.1 innings).

His average fastball (91.3) continues to be below the league average. Mantiply only had success with his slider (.221 BAA). He improved last season due to a much lower walk rate (0.9 – 2.6 in the majors).

Fantasy Outlook: At age 32, Mantiply most likely won’t build off his 2022 growth. Arizona will try to use him in favorable matchups vs. lefties, where he has a better chance to get outs.

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