2023 Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 Pittsburgh Pirates

After three postseason trips from 2013 to 2015, the Pirates have been on the playoff sidelines for the past seven years. They have a 142-242 record (.370) from 2020 to 2022 while finishing a combined 80 games out of first place. Pittsburgh’s last World Series win came in 1979. The Pirates have four other championship wins (1909, 1925, 1960, and 1971) in six trips to the title series.

Pittsburgh finished 29th in runs (591), 18th in runs (158), and 27th in RBIs (27th). They only hit .222 (29th) while stealing 89 bases (14th). The Pirates ranked 26th in ERA (4.66) with less value in the bullpen (41 wins, 38 losses, and 33 saves over 653.2 innings with a 4.72 ERA – 29th).

The Pirates signed OF Andrew McCutchen, 1B Carlos Santana, C Austin Hedges, C Kevin Plawecki, SP Rich Hill, SP Vince Velasquez, and RP Jarlin Garcia. In addition, they acquired 1B Ji-Man Choi and OF Connor Joe in a pair of trades for P Jack Hartman and P Nick Garcia. Pittsburgh parted ways with 1B Yoshi Tsutsugo, OF Jake Marisnick, and C Roberto Perez.

This season, the Pirates look to be in a bridge mode in their rebuilding process. The future of their offense lies in the development of multiple minor league players while hoping SS Oneil Cruz, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, C Endy Rodriguez, and SP Roansy Contreras develop into stars. Unfortunately, I don’t expect OF Bryan Reynolds, SP Mitch Keller, or RP David Bednar to be around long enough to see Pittsburgh make their rise back up the NL Central standings.

I expect another low-ranking finish as the franchise tries to get more out of less from their combination of young and veteran players.

Starting Lineup

OF Andrew McCutchen

After an excellent first decade of his career, McCutchen lost his momentum in batting average (.242) after the age of 30. He hit only .230 with 144 runs, 44 home runs, 149 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases over 997 at-bats. His strikeout rate (21.4) and walk rate (9.8) last season remained better than the league average.

In 2022, McCutchen struggled over his first 41 games (.205/16/3/19/3 over 166 at-bats). From June 5th to July 31st, he hit .305 with 30 runs, seven home runs, and 27 RBIs over 177 at-bats. Unfortunately, his season ended with another disappointing 172 at-bats (.198/20/7/23).

His contact batting average was in a weak area in 2021 (.297) and 2022 (.312) while posting a five-year low in his average hit rate (1.623). McCutchen had more pop in his bat vs. left-handed pitching (.221 with seven home runs and 19 RBIs over 145 at-bats). He had the lowest HR/FB rate (11.5) since 2010 while ranking midpack in his exit velocity (89.1 – 139th) and hard-hit rate (40.0 – 146th).

Fantasy Outlook: McCutchen gives the Pirates veteran experience, with expected help in runs, home runs, and RBIs. His ADP (339) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship paints him as a fifth outfielder in deep formats. He ranked 99th by FPGscore (-1.10) last season, so McCutchen should prove to be a value in 2023, thanks to his ability to deliver 500 at-bats.

OF Bryan Reynolds

In 2020, Reynolds had an edge in contact batting average (.405 in his minor league career and .416 in his first season with the Pirates) but that has become a significant liability (.273). Reynolds struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 12), but he did push his average hit rate (1.886) to an intriguing level. However, his hard-hit rate (38.0) was only league average.

Reynolds finished 2021 as the 31st-ranked player by FPGscore (3.58) for hitters while setting career highs across the board. Last season, his bat offered empty stats over the first two months (.212/17/7/12/2 over 170 at-bats) while also posting a short July (8-for-40 with five runs, no home runs, and one RBI) due to two weeks on the injured list with an oblique issue. Over his other three months, Reynolds hit .295 with 52 runs, 20 home runs, 49 RBIs, and five steals over 332 at-bats.

His strikeout rate (23.4) and walk rate (9.1) fell well short of his growth in 2021 (18.4/11.6). Reynolds finished with a setback in his contact batting average (.354 – .384 in 2021). He continues to have a low flyball rate (34.7) but a career-high HR/FB rate (19.3).

Reynolds finished 75th in exit velocity (90.2) and 98th in hard-hit rate (42.9), 148th in barrel rate (87.9), and 175th in launch angle (12.0).

Fantasy Outlook: In essence, he played well for half of 2022, leading to a step back in overall production and a lower ranking in FPGscore (1.19 – 57th). In addition, Reynolds had short RBI chances (316) and an RBI rate (13). His ADP (93) in the high-stakes market prices him as the 54th batter drafted. I expect him to be better this year, and a trade midseason to a contender should help with runs and RBIs. Next stop: a .290/90/30/85/10 stat line.

SS Oneil Cruz

Over six seasons in the minors, Cruz hit .275 with 291 runs, 58 home runs, 242 RBIs, and 71 stolen bases over 1,733 at-bats. In 2021, he missed some development time with a right forearm issue. His bat played well at AA (.292 over 250 at-bats with 51 runs, 12 home runs, 40 RBIs, and 18 steals) while gaining 232 at-bats of experience at AAA (.259/51/14/42/12) over the past two seasons.

Cruz gave Pittsburgh plenty of production (45 runs, 17 home runs, 54 RBIs, and 10 steals over 331 at-bats) in 2022, but he only hit .233 due to a high strikeout rate (34.9). He finished with strength in his contact batting average (.376) and average hit rate (1.935) with about a league-average walk rate (7.8).

On the downside, Cruz had massive issues with left-handed pitching (.158 with three home runs and 11 RBIs over 101 at-bats with 59 strikeouts – 53.2%). Over his final 205 at-bats, he hit .249 with 28 runs, 11 home runs, 32 RBIs, and seven steals while whiffing 80 times. Cruz ranked 25th in exit velocity (91.9) and 51st in hard-hit rate. (46.1)

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his combined counting stats at AAA and the majors (85 runs, 26 home runs, 89 RBIs, and 21 steals), Cruz will draw plenty of attention in 2023. He hits the ball hard while having plenty of work to do vs. lefties. His high strikeout rate invites job loss risk or a platoon role, at the very least. His ADP (74) in the NFBC ranks him seventh at shortstop in mid-February. Not my kind of dance despite a chance to improve. A possible 80/30/80/20 player with a sub .225 batting average.

1B Carlos Santana

Santana has one of the better approaches in baseball (strikeout rate – 17.4 and walk rate – 14.0), but his contact batting average has been insanely low in 2020 (.252), 2021 (.261), and 2022 (.2540. In addition, he continues to have post a shallow line drive rate (6.9) with a low HR/FB rate (12.6). His average hit rate (1.862) had a rebound in 2022 while delivering weakness in his RBI rate (13).

He struggled again with right-handed pitching (.178 with 16 home runs and 39 RBIs over 314 at-bats). Santana played poorly over his first 185 at-bats (.211/18/4/21) while missing time in May with an ankle injury. Batting average (.195) was an issue over the final three months, but he delivered 34 runs, 15 home runs, and 39 RBIs.

His exit velocity (90.7 – 53rd) and hard-hit rate (44.9 – 68th) ranked better than expected while offering a career-best flyball rate (43.9).

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past three seasons, Santana hit .207 with 152 runs, 46 home runs, 159 RBIs, and two steals over 1,202 at-bats. His ADP (418) in the NFBC fits low average power in deep leagues as a DH option. At age 36, his best days are behind him, but Pittsburgh should give him plenty of chances in 2023. Santana should work better as a short-term injury replacement if his bat shows a spark this year.

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .279 with 260 runs, 27 home runs, 205 RBIs, and 66 stolen bases over 1,755 at-bats. He will take some walks (9.4) while minimizing the damage in strikeouts (17.0).

After his first season at AAA in 2019 (.265 with 10 home runs, 53 RBIs, and 12 steals over 427 at-bats), Hayes responded with an impressive showing in September in 2020 (.376 with 17 runs, five home runs, and 11 RBI over 85 at-bats). His contact batting average (.492) was well above his minor league career (.346), as was his average hit rate (1.813 – 1.429).

He drew plenty of attention from fantasy managers after his brief success in 2021. Unfortunately, Hayes suffered a left wrist injury two games into the season, leading to two months on the injured list. He finished the year with stats below expectations (.258 with 47 runs, five home runs, 36 RBIs, and nine steals over 357 at-bats).

Last season, Hayes underperformed expectations again due to no growth in his average hit rate (1.415) and a further slide in his contact batting average (.321). He didn’t have one month of value while batting multiple minor injuries (back, shoulder, and knee).

Hayes offered strength in his exit velocity (91.0 – 45th) and hard-hit rate (46.8 – 44th), but his launch angle (5.2 – 291st) and barrel rate (3.9 – 264th) ranked poorly. He did lower his ground ball rate (49.4 – 52.0 in his career) with a minimal uptick in his flyball rate (28.8 – 25.3 in 2021). His HR/FB rate (6.3) is moving in the wrong direction.

Fantasy Outlook: After two disappointing years, Hayes only had a slight dip in his ADP (173 – 140 in 2021). He hits the ball hard but rarely with enough height to help his power and average. His speed plays well at third base, and his approach (strikeout rate – 21.8 and walk rate – 8.6) does point to a better outcome in his fantasy value. The gamble is on a push to .275, with the goal being a neutral player in runs, home runs, and RBIs.

1B Ji-Man Choi

Over five seasons with Tampa, Choi hit .245 with 163 runs, 52 home runs, and 203 RBIs over 1,306 at-bats. He started 2021 on the injured list after having right knee surgery in late March, followed by more missed time with groin and hamstring issues. A right elbow issue cost him more time last season, with surgery in November.

His bat was worthless against left-handed pitching (28-for-121 with no home runs and 14 RBIs) over the past two seasons. Choi had a productive first 216 at-bats (.278/26/7/41) in 2022 before fading after the All-Star break (.164/10/4/11 over 140 at-bats).

He finished with a rising groundball rate (45.1) and a sliding flyball rate (31.9). Choi has a reasonable HR/FB rate (14.7 – 17.0 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: Pittsburgh will use him in a platoon role this year while offering below-average fantasy stats in shallow formats. Choi will be found in the free-agent pool in all formats.

OF Connor Joe

Joe had an empty bat over his first three seasons of the minors (.251 with 120 runs, 11 home runs, 106 RBIs, and four steals over 986 at-bats) despite showing the ability to take walks (11.8%). His bat emerged between AA and AAA (.303 with 171 runs, 41 home runs, 148 RBIs, and five stolen bases over 816 at-bats). His strikeout rate (19.3) beat the league average while improving his walk rate (14.8).

In 2021, the Rockies gave him his first experience in the majors, leading to a .285 batting average with 23 runs, eight home runs, and 35 RBIs over 179 at-bats. After the All-Star break, Joe offered starting fantasy stats (.304/19/8/29 over 125 at-bats). Unfortunately, his season ended in early September with a hamstring injury.

Joe failed to capitalize on the best opportunity of his career in 2022. He had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.313) while posting a five-year low in his average hit rate (1.510). Over his first 278 at-bats, Joe hit .277 with 40 runs, five home runs, 19 RBIs, and four steals. However, he played his way out of the lineup over his final 126 at-bats (.151/16/2/9/2).

His strikeout rate (20.8) and walk rate (11.8) suggest more upside in his bat. Joe has a jump in his groundball rate (46.4) with a five-year low in his HR/FB rate (6.9).

Fantasy Outlook: At age 30, Joe appears to be past his window to secure a starting job in the majors. He brings a first-round pedigree (39th overall selection by Pittsburgh in 2014). His ADP (583) now requires him to prove his worth on the field.

C Austin Hedges

Hedges hit .171 over the last four seasons with 93 runs, 31 home runs, 103 RBIs, and five steals over 961 at-bats. His strikeout rate (23.1) was a career-best in 2022, but he only hit .222 when he put the ball in play. He did have a bump in his walk rate (7.4 – 6.3 in his career).

Hedges ranks poorly in his RBI rate (11) while offering a fading average hit rate (1.521). He has a flyball swing path (43.8%) but his HR/FB rate (7.4) was a career-low.

Fantasy Outlook: Pittsburgh paid him $5 million in December, giving him the inside track for the most at-bats at catcher in 2023. He has no fantasy value in any format other than a desperation short-term injury fill-in.

2B Rodolfo Castro

Over his six seasons in the minors, Castro hit .248 with 247 runs, 66 home runs, 279 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases over 1,774 at-bats. He had a productive start to his AAA season in 2022 (.246/37/12/40/6 over 272 at-bats) while having a high strikeout rate (27.4).

The Pirates gave Castro 339 at-bats of experience over the past two years, leading to a .244 batting average with 34 runs, 16 home runs, 35 RBIs, and five steals. His average hit rate (1.831) has been an asset over the past three seasons. Last year, he slightly improved his strikeout rate (26.6) in the majors, with a push to the league average in his walk rate (7.9). Castro had a bump power (six home runs and 17 RBIs) in September despite weakness in his batting average (.207 over 116 at-bats).

His exit velocity (87.3 – 245th) and hard-hit rate (35.0 – 233rd) ranked poorly.

Fantasy Outlook: Castro brings a 20/10 skill set to the majors with batting average risk. His ADP (364) in the high-stakes market puts him in the starting lineup in deep formats. Pittsburgh will give him a chance to prove his worth in 2023. He may flash at times, but can Castro do enough to earn 500 at-bats? Nothing more than a flier if his bat is delivering power.

C Endy Rodriguez

Over his first two seasons in the minors, Rodriguez only had 217 combined at-bats, leading to a .276 batting average with 41 runs, four home runs, 40 RBIs, and six steals. His bats developed to an elite over the past two seasons (.310/165/40/168/6 over 835 at-bats) while offering an excellent approach (strikeout rate – 18.4 and walk rate – 11.4).

Rodriguez only has 22 at-bats of experience at AAA (10-for-22 with one home run and eight RBIs).

Fantasy Outlook: Pittsburgh doesn’t have anyone blocking him for majors, and his bad days should to be much higher than Austin Hedges or Kevin Plawecki. His ADP (393) in the high-stakes market makes him a late C2 in deep formats. His talent and approach screams buy-and-hold, and I expect him to help fantasy teams in 2023.

2B Ji Hwan Bae

After starting his minor league career with no power in 2018 and 2019 (.306 with 93 runs, no home runs, 51 RBIs, and 41 steals over 457 at-bats), Bae started to work his way to the majors over the past two seasons. His best output came in 2022 at AAA (.289/81/8/53/30 over 419 at-bats). He had a top-of-the-order walk rate (10.5) with a favorable strikeout rate (18.6).

In his 10 games with Pittsburgh last season, Bae held his own at the plate (.333/5/0/6/3 over 33 at-bats).

His average hit rate showed improvement in 2021 (1.500) and 2022 (1.488) in the minors. He brings a groundball swing path (49.2% at AAA) to the majors.

Fantasy Outlook: Bae will compete for at-bats at second base and outfield in 2023. His speed is his attraction, with a chance to offer three category fantasy stats with a starting job and a high slot in the batting order. One player to follow this spring.

OF Jack Suwinski

Over six seasons in the minors, Suwinski hit .239 with 289 runs, 59 home runs, 248 RBIs, and 31 steals. His swing gained steam at AA (.273/81/22/71/12 over 418 at-bats), leading to a promotion to AAA (.214/19/6/18/1 over 117 at-bats) despite striking out 49 times (41.9%).

Pittsburgh still called him up to the majors last season. Over his first 119 at-bats, he hit .235 with 18 runs, eight home runs, and 16 RBIs. Suwinski struggled over his next 103 at-bats (.155/15/6/9) due to rising strikeouts (41). After a trip back to AAA, his swing had a similar failure over his final 104 at-bats with the Pirates (.212/12/5/213).

He took his share of walks (11.0%), but Suwinski whiffed 30.7% of the time.

Fantasy Outlook: I expect him to start the year at AAA. Suwinski has plenty of power that will be streaky while looking like a bench option against lefties (.122 over 98 at-bats with five home runs and eight RBIs). He has more risk than reward until his approach improves.

Starting Pitching

SP Mitch Keller

The Pirates drafted Keller in the second round in the 2014 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school. Over seven seasons in the minors, he went 37-22 with a 3.13 ERA and 605 strikeouts over 567.1 innings. In addition, his walk rate (2.9) and strikeout rate (9.6) played. Keller solved AA (11-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 121 strikeouts over 120.2 innings) while needing more work at AAA (11-8 with a 3.86 ERA and 219 strikeouts over 184 innings).

An oblique issue in 2020 led to Keller missing six weeks with some success over five starts (2.91 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts over 21.2 innings).

In 2021, Keller struggled to find consistency in his game. He allowed four runs or more in 10 of his 23 starts with the Pirates (52 runs, 102 baserunners, and eight home runs over 41 innings). Keller had a 2.56 ERA and 64 strikeouts over 59.2 innings when on his game.

He started last year with fantasy-killing stats over his first 16 games (2-6 with a 5.21 ERA, 1.553 WHIP, .286 BAA, and 66 strikeouts over 70 innings). Keller reversed his downward trend with an excellent final 15 starts (2.71 ERA, 1.217 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts over 83 innings) while whiling 3.0 batters per nine.

Keller’s fastball (95.8 mph) was a career-high. He continued to struggle with his curveball (.276 BAA) and changeup (.340 BAA) while offering a much better slider (.209 BAA). His four-seamer (.262 BAA) was a league-average pitch. Keller bumped up the usage of his curveball vs. lefties over the second half of the season. On the year, left-handed batters hit .276 with 34 of his 60 walks over 290 at-bats)

Fantasy Outlook: For someone buying into his second-half stats, Keller appears to be a pitcher on the rise. On the downside, his walk rate (3.4) remains an issue, along with solving lefties. With a few more strikes thrown, his strikeout rate (7.8) would rise from a soft-tossing zone. His ADP (388) in the NFBC works for a backend flier in deep formats. Until Keller lands on a contender, my ceiling for him is a 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts with 30 starts.

SP Roansy Contreras

After a breakthrough season at High A in 2019 (12-5 with a 3.33 ERA and 113 strikeouts over 132.1 innings), the Pirates acquired Contreras in 2021 in their deal for SP Jameson Taillon. He pitched well over 12 starts at AA 98(2.65 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 54.1 innings) before landing on the injured list with a right forearm issue. Pittsburgh gave him one start at AAA (one run over 3.2 innings and six strikeouts) and an appearance in the majors (no runs over three innings with four strikeouts).

Last season, Contreras made Pittsburgh’s opening-day roster, leading to success over his first three games (three runs over 7.2 innings with ten strikeouts), but the Pirates decided to move him back to AAA for his next five starts (2.66 ERA, .181 BAA, and 24 strikeouts over 20.1 innings). He handled himself well over seven matchups back with Pittsburgh (2.60 ERA and 32 strikeouts over 34.2 innings) despite walking 16 batters. The Brewers lit him up on July 1st (seven runs, seven baserunners, and three runs over 1.2 innings), pushing him back to AAA at the All-Star break.

Contreras had better command from July 7th to August 11th (3.15 ERA, three walks, and 20 strikeouts). His season ended with more help over his final 45 innings (3.80 ERA, 1.156 WHIP, .204 BAA, and 36 strikeouts).

His average fastball (95.9) had plenty of life, but it regressed each month (April – 97.2, May – 97.0, June – 96.1, July – 95.9, August – 95.3, and September – 94.8). Batters struggled to hit his slider (.158 BAA) and curveball – .200 BAA), but Contreras still needs work on his four-seamer (.276 – .578 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: He lines up as the Pirates’ best arm this year. However, forearm issues can turn into elbow issues and possibly TJ surgery. Contreras threw 129.1 innings last season (75 more than in 2021), putting him on a path to make 30 starts in Pittsburgh. His ADP (294) in the NFBC in mid-February puts him in an upside range. He is on a path to post a 3.50 ERA and 175 strikeouts if he makes 30 starts.

SP Rich Hill

Since the Red Sox gave Hill his second chance in baseball in 2015 at age 35, he went 56-36 with a 3.39 ERA and 807 strikeouts over 759 innings. Over this span, he picked over $69 million. Hill made about $5.5 million from 2002 to 2015, with his best payday coming in 2013 (one million).

Over his last 149 games, Hill averaged fewer than 5.1 innings per appearance. His ERA faded over the past three seasons (2.45 ERA, 3.03 ERA, 3.86 ERA, and 4.27 ERA), with regression as well in WHIP (1.210 in 2021 and 1.303 in 2022). Last year, he struggled against lefties (.277 over 65 at-bats with one home run) with less value against right-handed batters (.255 with 14 home runs over 419 at-bats).

A knee issue in July led to a month on the injured list. Hill pitched well in three (no runs over 18 innings with 27 strikeouts) of his final 11 starts, but he still had weakness in his ERA (4.36) and WHIP (1.322).

The velocity on his four-seam fastball has slipped to 88.7 mph. Batters hit .314 vs. his four-seamer. Hill relied heavily on his plus curveball (.229 BAA) while adding more cutters (.240 BAA) and sliders (.230 BAA) last season.

Fantasy Outlook: Pittsburgh signed him to a one-year $8 million contract in December. Hill will struggle to win games for a bad team, and he only pitched more than five innings in seven of his 26 starts in 2022. His ADP (580) in the high-stakes market puts him in the free-agent pool in all formats. My only interest in Hill this year will be in double start weeks when he has favorable matchups and throwing the ball well.

SP JT Brubaker

Over five seasons in the minors, Brubaker went 31-28 with a 3.60 ERA and 433 strikeouts over 514.1 innings. His walk rate (2.7) was favorable while delivering a low number of strikeouts (7.6 per nine). He had his best output at AAA (10-5 with 3.02 ERA and 116 strikeouts over 140 innings).

In 2019, Brubaker battled an arm injury (forearm and right elbow) for most of the season, leading to only 27.2 innings pitched.

Pittsburgh gave him 11 games in 2020, with success in six of his final eight starts (3.46 ERA and 30 strikeouts over 26 innings). However, he allowed 12 runs, 18 baserunners, and four home runs over 10.1 innings in his two bad games over this span.

His 2021 season started with 14 productive starts (3.82 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, and 75 strikeouts over 77.2 innings) despite allowing 13 home runs. Brubaker ran off the rails once the calendar flipped to July (7.91 ERA and 1.564 WHIP over 46.2 innings) due to 15 home runs allowed.

Last season, he allowed three runs or fewer in 17 of his 28 starts in which Brubaker pitched five innings. Unfortunately, he finished with six disaster starts (31 runs, 56 baserunners, and seven home runs over 25.1 innings). His walk rate (3.4) regressed from 2021 (2.8) with a slight downtick in his strikeout rate (9.2).

Brubaker averaged 93.3 mph with his fastball. He lost the feel of his four-seamer (.375 BAA), leading to a step back in usage. His curveball (.222 BAA) was his best pitch, followed by a fading slider (.248 BAA). Brubaker didn’t gain an edge with his sinker (.287 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: There isn’t much to get excited about his arm. He can string together some competitive innings, but Brubaker has too much risk in ERA and WHIP with a lingering forearm issue on his resume. His ADP (499) makes him an easy pitcher to avoid in 2023.

SP Vince Velasquez

Over his eight seasons in the majors, Velasquez has never had an ERA under 4.00. He has a 7-13 record over the past three seasons with a 5.61 ERA, 1.404 WHIP, and 216 strikeouts over 203.2 innings. His strikeout rate (9.7) has been helpful in his career, but Velasquez allowed too many home runs (1.5 per nine) while batting his command (4.0 walks per nine since 2020).

His average fastball (93.3) is no longer an edge in velocity, but he did have success last year with his four-seamer (.197 BAA) and slider (.197 BAA), suggesting his future lies in the bullpen.

Fantasy Outlook: Velasquez doesn’t belong anywhere near a fantasy team. The Pirates may use him as a bridge starter early in the season, but he hasn’t pitched more than 95 innings since 2019.

SP Quinn Priester

Pittsburgh drafted Priester 18th overall out of high school in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. He posted a 3.19 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 36.2 innings over his first season in the minors. In 2021, at High-A, Priester went 7-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 98 strikeouts over 97.2 innings.

An oblique issue led to his appearance last season coming on June 9th. Priester looked sharp over his first 14 starts at AA (.213 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, .228 BAA, and 70 strikeouts over 71.2 innings). He tripped in his next game (seven runs, 10 baserunners, and one home run over 3.2 innings), but Pittsburgh still pushed him to AAA for two starts (four runs, 13 baserunners, and 10 strikeouts over 9.1 innings).

His fastball can touch the upper 90s with a pitching motion that should lead to excellent command. In addition, Priester has a plus curveball, and his sinker creates swings and misses at the bottom of the strike zone.

Fantasy Outlook: Once he develops his changeup, his ticket will be punched to Pittsburgh. Priester should develop into a frontline starter. But, for now, he needs more experience in the minors, while possibly having an underlying injury based on how he pitched over six starts (7.04 ERA and 1.565 WHIP) in the Arizona Fall League.

SP Luis Ortiz

Over three short seasons in the minors, Ortiz went 12-14 with a 3.98 ERA and 288 strikeouts over 262.1 innings. Despite struggling in 2022 at AA (4.96 ERA and 126 strikeouts over 114.1 innings), Pittsburgh gave him two starts at AAA (3.60 ERA over 10 innings) and the majors (4.50 ERA over 16 innings). He checked the command box (2.8 walks per nine) last year with strength in his strikeout rate (10.0).

His average fastball (98.5) was elite over limited pitches in the majors. Ortiz offers a plus slider (.174 BAA) while needing to develop his changeup.

Fantasy Outlook: There is a hidden gem in Ortiz, but he does need some more development time at AAA. His fastball/slider combination projects well out of the bullpen, but Ortiz has a chance to work a horse at the front end of the Pirates’ bullpen. I view him as a must-follow this spring.

Bullpen

CL David Bednar

Bednar pitched well in the Padres’ system over four seasons, but he never reached AAA. Bender posted a 2.70 ERA, 303 strikeouts, and 39 saves over 219.2 innings. His strikeout rate (12.4) and walk rate (2.9) offered closing upside.

After four appearances in 2020 with San Diego, he allowed five runs and 13 baserunners over 6.1 innings. Pittsburgh acquired him in January of 2021 in a three-way deal with the Mets.

Bednar pitched well in his first entire season with the Pirates. However, he earned only three saves despite posting closing stats (2.23 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. After the All-Star break, his arm had the most value (1.05 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 25.2 innings).

Last year, Bednar had an excellent start to the season over 24 innings (0.75 ERA, 0.667 WHIP, .145 BAA, 31 strikeouts, and nine saves). His arm didn’t look right over his next 20 games (12 runs, 34 baserunners, and 32 strikeouts over 22.2 innings) while converting eight of his 12 save tries. Unfortunately, he landed on the injured list for almost two months with a back injury. Over his final five innings, Bednar allowed one run and six hits while adding six strikeouts and two saves.

His average fastball (96.5) was elite (four-seamer – .219 BAA). Bednar threw a plus split-finger fastball (.188 BAA) and a successful curveball (.240 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: His ADP (102) ranks as the 13th closer drafted in mid-February in the NFBC. Bednar looks the part of a top-tier closer, putting him on a path to saves 30+ games with an edge in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.

RP Johan Oviedo

Oviedo never developed as a starter in his six seasons in the minors (31-30 with a 4.61 ERA and 503 strikeouts over 480.2 innings). In addition, he failed in 2020 and 2021 in the majors for the Cardinals (0-8 with a 5.07 ERA, 1.517 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts over 87 innings).

His arm was at least serviceable last season (4-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 54 strikeouts over 56 innings) for St. Louis and Pittsburgh. He cleaned up the damage in home runs (0.8 per nine), but Oviedo still walked too many batters (3.7 per nine).

He has a plus fastball (96.2 mph) while offering growth in his secondary pitches (slider – .224 BAA, curveball – .095 BAA, and changeup – .167 BAA). Oviedo had more success against lefties (.195 BAA over 87 at-bats) despite having a poor BB: K ratio (13:18).

Fantasy Outlook: Oviedo was a much better pitcher in relief in 2022 (2-0 with a 2.66 ERA, four walks, and 21 strikeouts over 20.1 innings). Pittsburgh should start him out in the bullpen this season.

RP Yerry De Los Santos

De Los Santos had an impressive last three seasons (9-4 with a 1.51 ERA, 118 strikeouts, and 18 saves over 89.1 innings) in the minors. Unfortunately, he hasn’t pitched over 50 innings since 2015. After a fast start at AAA (2-0 with a 1.27 ERA, 20 strikeouts, and two saves over 15.2 innings), Pittsburgh gave him his first chance in the majors.

Over his first 16 games in the majors, De Los Santos posted a 2.65 ERA, 20 strikeouts, and three saves over 17 innings. He lost all value over his next 10 appearances (nine runs, 17 baserunners, and six strikeouts over 8.2 innings) before seeing his season end in mid-August with a lat injury.

His average fastball (95.2) graded well. De Los Santos offered a plus sinker (.175 BAA), but he lost the feel for his slider (.445 BAA – .229 before July 16th) over his bad stretch.

Fantasy Outlook: De Los Santos needs to earn the durability card on his major league resume. His stuff plays well late in games, but his bad innings last year may be a sign of an underlying elbow issue. He does have closing experience, giving him a chance at saves if the Pirates decide to trade David Bednar over the summer.

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