2023 Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Cincinnati Reds.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 Cincinnati Reds

There hasn’t been much to root for as a Reds’ fan over the past nine seasons. Their only postseason appearance over this span came in the Covid-19 shortened season in 2020. Cincinnati’s last World Series appearance and win came in 1990. Over the team’s 141-year history, they have had four other championships (1919, 1940, 1975, and 1976).

The Reds finished 28th in ERA (4.86) with the same ranking for their bullpen (29 wins, 27 losses, and 31 saves over 613.2 innings with a 4.72 ERA). They scored 648 runs (23rd), hit 156 home runs (19th), and drove in 618 runs (23rd). Cinci had more failure in batting average (.235 – 22nd) while rarely stealing bases (58 – 25th).

In the offseason, Cincinnati signed 1B Wil Myers, 2B Kevin Newman, C Curt Casali, C Luke Maile, IF Chad Pinder, and SP Luke Weaver. In addition, they parted ways with 3B Colin Moran, 3B Mike Moustakas, SP Mike Minor, and RB Hunter Strickland. In early February, the Reds acquired OF Will Benson for minor league OF Justin Boyd.

The starting rotation has two young developing arms (Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo), but their backend arms are well below the league average. Their bullpen is loaded with questions about all roles. RP Alexis Diaz projects as their closer, but his resume is short with questionable command.

The only two batters on the Reds that I consider competitive pieces are 2B Jonathan India and C Tyler Stephenson. OF Spencer Steer comes with a high prospect rating in their system while needing to prove his worth in the majors. Finally, Cincinnati hopes to squeeze one more season out of 1B Joey Votto while throwing a dart at the underperforming career of OF Wil Myers.

A playoff appearance would be a challenge for the Reds in 2023.

Starting Lineup

OF TJ Friedl

Over six seasons in the minors, Friedl hit .275 with 303 runs, 40 home runs, 208 RBIs, and 89 stolen bases over 1,856 at-bats. In his two years of experience at AAA, he hit .269 with 92 runs, 20 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases over 591 at-bats. Friedl posted strength in his walk rate (10.2) while having a favorable strikeout rate (17.3).

In his first chance in the majors, he finished with a career-high in his average hit rate (1.815), but his contact batting average (.292) came in below his time at AAA (.332). The Reds gave him only part-time at-bats until September (.209/12/5/8/1 over 91 at-bats). His best run came in August (.386 over 44 at-bats with eight runs, three home runs, and 10 RBIs). His strikeout rate (15.5) finished in a favorable area with a slightly below-par walk rate (7.8).

He developed a flyball swing path in 2022 at AAA (46.8%) and the majors (50.0%).

Fantasy Outlook: Friedl will compete for a starting job in the Reds’ outfield this season. He has 20/20 potential with the approach to push up the Reds’ starting lineup. His ADP (371) in the NFBC fits a 15-team build if he is trending toward starting at-bats in spring training. Where Friedl hits in the batting order will be the tell for his playable value.

2B Jonathan India

India is an example of my need to dig deeper in 2021. His last minor league season in 2019 (.259/74/11/44/11 over 428 at-bats) between High A and AA didn’t jump off the sheet. With one more click of the mouse, his final year in college in 2018 (.350 over 226 at-bats with 66 runs, 21 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 15 steals) would have pushed me to poke further into his scouting report. Unfortunately, with no minor league baseball in 2020 and no experience at AAA, I didn’t connect the dots quickly enough when India made the Reds’ starting lineup in 2021. In the end, he won the rookie of the year award in the National League while ranking 46th in FPGscore (2.00) for hitters with a waiver wire price point.

Unfortunately, India had his year derailed in April and May last season by landing on the injured list for 54 days with a hamstring injury. As a result, he only hit .204 over his first 113 at-bats with eight runs, two home runs, nine RBIs, and one steal). His stats over his final 273 at-bats (.267/40/8/32/2) failed to match his success in his rookie season.

His walk rate (7.2) came in below 2021 (11.3) with a slightly lower strikeout rate (21.8). In 2018, in college, India took more walks (60) than he struck out (56). His approach in the minors points to further improvement with the Reds.

India excelled with runners on base (RBI rate – 6.6) so far in the majors, but his average hit rate (1.521) and contact batting average (.329) fell short of his rookie season.

He finished with a slight bump in his flyball rate (36.1 – 33.4 in 2021) while seeing a sharp decline in his HR/FB rate (9.5 – 15.9). His exit velocity (85.1 – 302nd) and hard-hit rate (28.8 – 294th).

Fantasy Outlook: India won’t jump off the page this season based on his secondary metrics, but the sum of his parts should outperform his 2023 ADP (177) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has a track record of improving with more experience. My starting point this year is .270, with 80 runs, 20 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 20 steals.

1B Joey Votto

Coming into 2021, Votto lost his impactful luster over his previous three seasons, where he hit .265 over 1,214 at-bats with 178 runs, 38 home runs, 136 RBIs, and seven steals. His trend down in batting average came from a poor contact batting average (.294) in 2020 while showing a bounce back in his average hit rate (1.976).

In 2021, Votto looked out of sorts again over his first 106 at-bats (.226 with nine runs, five home runs, and 17 RBIs). In early May, he landed on the injured list for five weeks with a broken left thumb after getting hit with a pitch. By the end of June, his bat appeared to have more life (.293/13/5/17 over 75 at-bats). Votto led fantasy teams to league championships with his monster finish to the year (.273 over 267 at-bats with 51 runs, 26 home runs, and 65 RBI).

After a quiet first 22 games last season (.122/4/0/3 over 74 at-bats), Votto missed 18 days with a battle with Covid-19. He hit .226 over his next 252 at-bats with 27 runs, 11 home runs, and 38 RBIs while battling a slight back issue in early July. His season ended in mid-August with a torn rotator cuff in his left shoulder that required surgery.

He finished with the highest strikeout rate (25.8) of his career while taking fewer walks (11.7% – 15.7 in his career). Votto posted an HR/FB rate (13.1) that was more than 50% lower than in 2021 (26.5 – 18.0 in his career). However, his exit velocity (89.7 – 92.9 in 2021) and hard-hit rate (41.3 – 53.2 in 2021) beat his career averages (89.3 and 39.5).

Fantasy Outlook: Other than 2021, Votto has been a fantasy bust since 2018. I can’t expect a bump in power after shoulder surgery, and the Reds don’t expect him to be ready for the start of spring training. His question marks heading into this season make him only a backend flier in deep formats based on his ADP (415) in the NFBC. His best days are behind him, and chasing his 2021 stats will be a mistake by drafters.

OF Wil Myers

Once Myers reached the prime of his career (age 27), he failed to produce over 450 at-bats in each of his last five seasons. His bat delivered 216 runs, 68 home runs, 236 RBIs, and 41 stolen bases over 1,648 at-bats from 2018 to 2022 with a .256 batting average.

The Padres never gave him full-time at-bats in any month in 2021, leading to dull stats on too many days. Over the first four months of last season (.234/13/1/19 over 124 at-bats), Myers missed time with left thumb and right knee injuries. His year ended with a .285 batting average over 137 at-bats with 16 runs, six home runs, and 22 RBIs while striking out 31.6% of the time.

His contact batting average (.389) remains favorable, but he had regression in his average hit rate (1.529). Myers ranked below the league average in exit velocity (88.5 – 175th) and hard-hit rate (37.6 – 194th). His strikeout rate (29.2) has been a problem over the past six seasons, but he will take some walls (9.8%).

Fantasy Outlook: Injuries and a fading skill set have been an issue for Myers for multiple seasons. His bat does have upside in power and sneaky speed if he is healthy enough to stay on the field for 500 at-bats. His ADP (239) in the high-stakes market looks to be more of a desperation dart as his skill set than a wise investment in a player on the cusp of a breakout season. On the positive side, a hitter-friendly ballpark does invite more balls leaving the yard. At pick 300, I would be more intrigued.

C Tyler Stephenson

Over six seasons in the minors, Stephenson hit .263 with 196 runs, 28 home runs, and 188 RBIs over 1,363 at-bats. His highest experience level came at AA in 2019 (.285 with six home runs and 44 RBIs over 312 at-bats).

Over the past three seasons, the Reds gave him 533 at-bats, leading to a .296 batting average with 84 runs, 18 home runs, and 86 RBIs. His bat was on the rise in 2022 over his first 166 at-bats (.319/24/6/35/1). Unfortunately, Stephenson had his season ultimately end in early June (he only played eight more games) due to a fractured right thumb and right shoulder injury (broken clavicle).

His strikeout rate (25.7) was much higher than in 2021 (18.7) while taking fewer walks (6.6% – 10.2 in 2021). Stephenson continued to have a dull average hit rate (1.509), but he rose to the occasion with runners on base (RBI rate – 21). He overachieved in batting average due to an outlier result in his contact batting average (.445).

Stephenson continues to have a low but rising flyball rate (29.8 – 25.0 in 2021). He ranked poorly in exit velocity (87.1 – 310th) and hard-hit rate (34.7 – 290th).

Fantasy Outlook: Stephenson ranks 11th at catcher in the early draft season in the NFBC with an ADP of 139. His progression in production points to 450+ at-bats with 65 runs, 15 home runs, and 65 RBIs, but I only see a .280 hitter unless his approach improves while holding onto a .350+ contact batting average. If the Reds give him more at-bats at DH, his ceiling would be much higher.

OF Nick Senzel

Senzel hit .308 with 158 runs, 28 home runs, 135 RBIs, and 40 stolen bases over 949 at-bats over six seasons in the minors, pointing to a productive career in the majors. Unfortunately, injuries have been a massive problem over the past three seasons (215 missed games), resulting in a disappointing start to his major league career (.240/126/20/83/26 over 929 at-bats). His strikeout rate (20.1) and walk rate (7.5) are within reach of the league average.

A broken toe last September leads to a questionable start to spring training in 2023.

Fantasy Outlook: At age 27, Senzel falls into the post-hype category while being extremely challenging to trust. He’ll be found in the free-agent pool until his bat shows a spark. Easy to write off, but all of the risk has been removed by his price point.

3B Spencer Steer

Steer delivered two competitive seasons in power (47 home runs and 141 RBIs over 844 at-bats) over the past two seasons in the minors while hitting .264 with 162 runs and 12 stolen bases. In his half-year of experience at AAA, his output graded well (.259/53/15/45/3 over 290 at-bats). His walk rate (11.0) was an edge while minimizing the damage in strikeouts (17.8%).

The Reds gave him 95 at-bats of experience in 2022, leading to weakness in his stats (.211/12/2/8). Steer had 11 walks and 26 strikeouts over 108 plate appearances. His average hit rate showed growth in 2021 (1.906) and 2022 (1.880) in the minors while having a step back with Cincinnati (1.550).

Fantasy Outlook: Steer has some intangibles that suggest his better days will come in the majors. His ability to play multiple positions increases his chance of making the major league roster out of spring training. He won’t be drafted in many formats, but I expect him to offer replacement stats once Steer feels comfortable at the plate in the majors.

OF Jake Fraley

In his last three seasons in the minors, Fraley proved he could handle AA pitching (.313 with 11 home runs, 47 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases over 230 at-bats) while also receiving 233 at-bats at AAA (.283 with 12 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 10 steals). His walk rate (9.7) and strikeout rate (19.3) came in above the league average in the minors.

Over the past two seasons, Fraley gained 430 at-bats of experience with the Mariners and Reds, leading to productive stats (60 runs, 21 home runs, 64 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases).

He lowered his strikeout rate (21.9) for a risky area in 2021 (26.8%) while taking plenty of walks (10.5% – 12.7 in the majors). Cincinnati used him in a platoon role last season (.143 over 28 at-bats against lefties with one home run and three RBIs). His HR/FB rate has been an asset in 2021 (18.0%) and 2022 (20.0%).

A knee injury in June led to three months on the injured list. Fraley battled hamstring and shoulder issues in 2021.

Fantasy Outlook: Fraley has some spunk in his bat while having a high floor in his average hit rate (1.804) over the past three seasons. He can’t earn full-time at-bats unless Cincinnati gives him a window against left-handed pitching. His ADP (300) seems like the right kind of flier if Fraley can stay healthy and push to the top of the Reds’ lineup. For now, only in play in deep formats.

SS Kevin Newman

Over six seasons in the minors, Newman hit .290 with 254 runs, 15 home runs, 152 RBIs, and 62 steals over 1,678 at-bats. He was tough to strike out (10.3%) with some weakness in his walk rate (7.0) in his minor league career.

After playing well in 2018 at AAA (.302 with four home runs, 35 RBIs, and 28 steals over 437 at-bats), Newman proved to be a better player in his first entire season with Pittsburgh in 2019 (.308 with 61 runs, 12 home runs, 64 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases over 493 at-bats).

Over the past three years, Newman struggled to find his way, leading to a .240 batting average with 93 runs, eight home runs, 73 RBIs, and 14 steals over 961 at-bats. He maintained his low strikeout rate (11.7) in his time in the majors while losing some value in his walk rate (5.2).

His exit velocity (85.8 – 293rd) and hard-hit rate (27.2 – 300th) remain in weak areas. Newman has a short flyball rate (31.4), with no growth in his HR/FB rate (2.7) and barrel rate (1.6 – 310th).

Fantasy Outlook: His bat doesn’t look worthy of a full-time job, and Newman seems destined to hit the bottom of the Reds’ starting lineup. With a minimal contract, he projects more as a utility infielder.

SS Jose Barrero

Barrero lost his top prospect buzz over the past year. Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .263 over 1,436 at-bats with 208 runs, 42 home runs, 198 RBIs, and 49 stolen bases. Unfortunately, his bat was overmatched in 2022 at AAA (.209/27/9/24/5 over 220 at-bats), showcased by his massive regression in his approach (strikeout rate – 37.6 and walk rate – 4.6).

The Reds gave Barrero 48 games of experience in 2022, but his lack of confidence bled through his empty stats (.195/13/2/10/4 over 165 at-bats) while whiffing 43.7% of the time.

Fantasy Outlook: Cincinnati will start him at AAA again in 2023, but his glove looks major league ready. Before becoming a trusted major league player, he has a lot to prove, starting with covering home plate better with his bat.

Starting Pitching

SP Hunter Greene

Greene made the jump from high school to the minor leagues after Cincinnati added him with the second overall pick in the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft. However, he struggled over his first two seasons (4.95 ERA and 95 strikeouts over 72.2 innings). A right elbow injury that required TJ surgery led to no pitching in 2019 and 2020.

In 2021, Greene pitched well at AA (5-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 41 innings), but he looked overmatched at AAA (4.13 ERA) due to 11 home runs allowed over 65.1 innings.

Greene made the Reds starting rotation out of spring training last season, but major league batters didn’t treat him well over his first 16 starts (3-10 with a 6.01 ERA, 1.349 WHIP, and 98 strikeouts over 79.1 innings) due to 22 home runs allowed. After showing improvement over his next four games (2.70 ERA, 1.114 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts over 23.1 innings), he landed on the injured list for six weeks with a right shoulder issue. His season ended with four electric starts (one run and 12 hits over 23 innings with seven walks and 37 strikeouts). More importantly, Greene only allowed two home runs over his final 46.1 innings.

Greene brings an electric fastball (99.0 mph). He threw his plus slider (.168 BAA) 40.9% of the time while offering minimal use changeup (.364 BAA over 116 pitches – 5.3% thrown). Batters had 17 home runs over his four-seamer (.258 BAA) while pitching up in the strike zone (HR/FB rate – 48.5). Greene only threw two changes to a right-handed batter last season. After July 25th, his four-seamer reached a dominant area vs. righties (.143 BAA) and lefties (.182 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Greene had eight starts where he allowed four runs or more in which he didn’t pitch more than five innings. He pitched six innings in only nine starts. The Reds allowed him to throw more than 100 pitches in six matchups, with a peak of 118 on May 15th. When at his best over his final five starts, Greene averaged 15.3 pitches per batter and 88.6 per game. His ADP (112) in the NFBC falls in an upside area. However, he must develop his changeup to reach his expected frontline ceiling. His bad outweighed the good in 2022 while also battling a slight shoulder issue. Next step: 165 innings pitched with a 3.25 ERA and 225 strikeouts.

SP Nick Lodolo

The Reds selected Lodolo with the seventh pick in the first round in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons in college, he went to 18-11 with a 3.55 ERA and 296 strikeouts over 258.2 innings. His arm stepped forward in 2019 (2.36 ERA and 131 strikeouts over 103 innings).

In 2021, Lodolo missed time with blisters and a left shoulder issue. Over his two short seasons in the minors, he posted a 2.61 ERA over 69 innings with 108 strikeouts. His walk rate (1.4) is elite while offering an electric strikeout rate (14.1).

Lodolo made his first start for the Reds on April 13th. He struggled in back-to-back outings (eight runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs over nine innings with 12 strikeouts). After flashing in his next appearance (one run over 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts), a back issue put him on the injured list until July. He battled over his next eight starts (3.97 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, .262 BAA, and 58 strikeouts over 45.1 innings). Lodolo showcased his potential over his final 43.1 innings (2.70 ERA, 0.877 WHIP, .181 BAA, and 54 strikeouts).

Through his ups and downs, he drilled a league-high 19 batters while pitching six innings in eight of his 19 starts.

His average fastball (94.5) beat the league average. Lodolo featured an electric swing and miss curveball (.139 BAA), and his four-seamer was an exceptional pitch (.183 BAA). Batters beat up his sinker (.337 BAA) and changeup (.354 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Lodolo checks two boxes heading into 2023. He already dominates lefties (.109 BAA), and his career path shows elite command. Hitting batters was a problem in college (34 over 258.2 innings). Throughout his career, Lodolo has yet to throw more than 110 innings at age 25. His ADP (126) in the high-stake market is steamy based on his finish to 2022 and his potential upside in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. I like his arm, but I need to see him make 30 starts before investing in him at his current price point.

SP Graham Ashcraft

Ashcraft showed growth in 2021 between High A and AA, leading to an 11-4 record with a 3.00 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 111 innings. He struggled last season at AAA (nine runs and 59 baserunners over 35.1 innings with 35 strikeouts), but the Reds still gave him a chance in the majors.

His arm fared better than expected over his first four starts (3-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 23.2 innings) in Cincinnati. The league caught up to him over his next four outings (19 runs, 34 baserunners, and four home runs over 20 innings). Ashcraft was at least serviceable over his eight starts (3.47 ERA) in July and August despite batters hitting .286 against him. His season ended with three consecutive losses (12.00 ERA and seven strikeouts over 12 innings).

His average fastball (97.3) had plenty of velocity, but batters had too much success vs. his four-seamer (.281 BAA) and sinker (.313 BAA). Ashcraft did offer a winning slider (.235 BAA). He only threw his changeup 12 times with batters going 2-for-2.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his profile, paired with his fastball and slider, the Reds may be better served to push Ashcraft to the bullpen. He’ll be found in the free-agent pool in 2023.

SP Luke Weaver

Heading into 2018, Weaver had an exceptional resume in the minors (25-11 with a 2.03 ERA and 275 strikeouts over 279.1 innings). He went 6-3 at AA with a 1.40 ERA and 88 strikeouts over 77 innings in 2016). The following year at AAA, Weaver finished with an 11-2 record with a 2.46 ERA and 87 strikeouts over 87.2 innings. In the minors, he had elite command (walk rate – 1.8) with strength in his strikeout rate (9.1).

Unfortunately, Weaver struggled over the past five seasons (16-30 with a 4.86 ERA and 345 strikeouts over 354 innings). His struggles and injuries (thumb and elbow) led to him pitching out of the bullpen in 2022 (6.56 ERA, 18.22 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts over 35.2 innings). Despite his failure, Weaver only allowed one run with a reasonable strikeout rate (9.6) and walk rate (3.3).

His average fastball (94.5) was a career-high. However, none of his pitches were assets last year.

Fantasy Outlook: Innings pitched has been a problem for Weaver in his time in the majors. His peak output came in 2018 (136.1 innings). Over the past four years, he pitched fewer than 66 innings each season. The Reds took a flier on him, but fantasy drafters will not until he has success on the field.

SP Luis Cessa

Over his seven seasons in the majors, Cessa has a 16-18 record with a 4.13 ERA and 320 strikeouts over 399 innings. He has 29 career starts while working almost exclusively out of the bullpen since 2019. Home runs (1.4 per nine) have been an issue in his career while offering a low strikeout rate (7.2).

His arm played better in the minors (3.55 ERA and 593 strikeouts over 707.1 innings), but Cessa had the same results at AAA (4.13 ERA) as in his time in the big leagues.

His average fastball (93.5) was a career-low with five consecutive years of regression. Cessa has a very good slider (.200 BAA), and his four-seamer (.173 BAA) worked well in 2022.

Fantasy Outlook: The Reds will probably add another starting arm to their team this spring, making Cessa only a placeholder. He has enough experience to shine at times, but his lack of strikeout ability and home runs will catch up to him over time.

SP Justin Dunn

Over two seasons at AA, Dunn went 15-10 with a 3.82 ERA and 263 strikeouts over 221.1 innings. The Mariners gave him 10 starts in his rookie season (2020). He was challenging to hit (.189 BAA), but home runs (10 over 45.2 innings) and command (6.1 walks per nine) led to risk in WHIP (1.358).

In 2021, Dunn walked eight batters in his first start (three runs over 4.2 innings with three strikeouts) before finding his groove over his next eight games (2.88 ERA and 42 strikeouts over 40.2 innings). After a poor showing on June 11th (five runs and 11 baserunners over three innings), Dunn left his next start right with a right shoulder injury that ended his season.

His shoulder issues carried over to last season, leading to no appearance in any game until June 26th. Dunn struggled all year at AAA and the majors while reinjuring his shoulder in September.

Finding home plate (5.8 walks per nine in the majors) continues to be a problem, along with home runs allowed (27 over his 133.2 innings).

His average fastball (92.3) was down 1.5 mph from 2021. Batters still struggled to hit his slider (.212 BAA), and his four-seamer (.250 BAA) wasn’t that bad.

Fantasy Outlook: Dunn has much to prove, starting with getting healthy. He has yet to solve AAA or major league batters. The Reds have weakness at the backend of their rotation, giving him a chance at a major league job with better success on the mound. Dunn looks to be a waiver wire name with more risk than reward.

SP Reiver Sanmartin

Over six seasons in the minors, Sanmartin went 35-27 with a 3.39 ERA and 429 strikeouts over 446 innings. He pitched well at AA and AAA in 2021 (10-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 112 strikeouts over 100.1 innings), giving him his first chance in the majors.

The Reds gave Sanmartin four starts and one long relief appearance to begin last year (25 runs, 37 baserunners, and four home runs over 16.1 innings), but he pitched his way back to the minors. Despite failure as well at AAA (7.36 ERA), Cincinnati pitched him out of their bullpen for the remainder of the season (3.32 ERA, 1.426 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts). His failure came via walks (4.6 per nine).

His average fastball (90.1) is below the league average, but Sanmartin only had success with his slider (.235 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Any progression to the starting rotation starts with strike one. His soft tossing style will lead to many down games when his command is off. Sanmartin appears to need more seasoning in the bullpen before getting his chance at starting for Cincinnati.

Bullpen

RP Alexis Diaz

After an unimpressive minor league career (15-12 with a 4.03 ERA and 265 strikeouts over 199 innings) over five seasons, Diaz turned into a dominating arm in his first year with the Reds. Batters only hit .131 against him, with his best value coming against right-handed pitching (.107 with two home runs and 53 strikeouts over 112 at-bats).

He finished with an ERA under 1.25 every month except September (3-1 with a 2.19 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 12.1 innings). Diaz went 5-2 over his final 30.1 innings with 40 strikeouts and seven saves in 10 chances.

His average fastball (95.8) has plus velocity. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.125 BAA) and slider (.136 BAA). Some of his success came from a change in approach with his arsenal. Diaz turned into an extreme flyball pitcher (54.5%) while continuing to minimize the damage in his HR/FB rate (6.9).

Fantasy Outlook: The relieving pool doesn’t offer many arms that will allow 35 fewer hits (28) to innings pitched (63.2), but Diaz does create some of his own drama by issuing 4.7 walks per nine innings. His ADP (128) in the NFBC points to fantasy drafters feeling giddy about his closing opportunity in 2023. He has a small sample size but a higher ceiling with improvement in his command. Let’s go with why not because the Reds lack anyone to knock him off the closing perch.

RP Tony Santillan

Santillan threw the ball well in 2018 between High A and AA, leading to a 10-7 record with a 3.08 ERA and 134 strikeouts over 149 innings. He repeated AA the following season with no success over 21 starts (2-8 with a 4.84 ERA, 1.603 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts over 102.1 innings). The Reds shifted him to a semi-bullpen role in 2021 at AAA (2.13 ERA and 51 strikeouts over 38 innings) after sitting out the Covid-19 season.

Over the past two seasons, Santillan posted a 3.71 ERA, 1.429 WHIP, 77 strikeouts, and four saves over 63 innings in Cincinnati. A lower back injury in 2022 ended his season in mid-June after 19.2 poor innings (5.49 ERA).

His average fastball (96.3) brings an edge in velocity, but batters hit .342 against him last season. Santillan has a winning slider (.231 BAA) while continuing to offer poor command (4.7 walks per nine).

Fantasy Outlook: There’s potential in his arm once Santillan figures out how to throw more strikes. His fastball and slider combination should work well in the Reds’ bullpen with a healthy season. In 2021, he pitched 81.1 innings with a 2.54 ERA and 107 strikeouts.

RP Lucas Sims

Over the last four seasons with the Reds, Sims went 11-4 with a 4.34 ERA and 172 strikeouts over 122.1 innings. However, he still walks too many batters (4.0 per nine innings) while battling home runs (17). He converted eight of 11 saves over the past two years.

Last season, Sims made only six appearances due to a herniated disk that required surgery in July.

His average fastball (93.8) was down 1.4 mph from 2021. He continues to offer a plus slider (.143 BAA), but Sims struggled with his four-seamer (.375 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: A right elbow injury led to six weeks on the injured list in 2021, so Sims must get passed the health card before earning another chance at closing games while also improving his command.

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