2023 Preview: Washington Nationals

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Washington Nationals.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 Washington Nationals

Since winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals have become the have-nots in the NL East over the past three seasons (146-238). Washington has four other postseason appearances in their 18 years since moving from Montreal. The Expos’ best season (1994 – 74-40) was wiped out by a player’s strike (no World Series). Montreal made the playoffs in 1981, another year affected by a strike (108 games played). Unfortunately, the Expos didn’t make the postseason in the team’s other 34 years of action.

The Nationals finished 31st in ERA (5.00) while grading much better in their bullpen (25 wins, 21 losses, and 28 saves over 638 innings with a 3.84 ERA – 15th). Washington ranked 26th in runs (603), 28th in home runs (136), and 26th in RBIs (579). They hit .249 (11th) while stealing 75 bases (20th).

Washington signed OF Corey Dickerson, 3B Jeimer Candelario, 1B Dominic Smith, OG Garret Stone, RP Alex Colome, and SP Trevor Williams. They lost DH Nelson Cruz, SP Joe Ross, and 2B Cesar Hernandez to free agency.

Their bullpen looks messy, with no dominating young arm to emerge in the ninth inning. The Nationals hope the combination of Josiah Gray, McKenzie Gore, and Cade Cavalli can develop into top-tier starting pitchers. SP Stephen Strasburg could be pitching his way to a contender if he is past his shoulder/rib injuries of 2022.

The future of Washington’s starting lineup lies in the hands of SS CJ Abrams, 2B Luis Garcia, and C Keibert Ruiz. They have some experienced bats, but no player projects to be a star. The Nationals hope to be improved offensively in 2023 while waiting for their pitching staff to emerge before signing any elite bats.

Starting Lineup

SS CJ Abrams

Over three short seasons in the minors, Abrams hit .331 over 483 at-bats with 109 runs, 12 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 42 steals. He only has 171 at-bats of experience at AAA (.310/42/7/30/14). His strikeout rate (15.5) beat the league average while having weakness in his walk rate (6.7). Abrams had an exceptional contact batting average (.400) but light power hitting average hit rate (1.544).

In his first experience in the majors, he had a sharp decline in his average hit rate (.299) with a minimal change in his strikeout rate (16.6). Abrams did have a step back in his walk rate (1.7) and a less potent average hit rate (1.314). Lefties held him to a .157 batting average with no walks and 21 strikeouts over 89 at-bats.

His swing path was groundball favoring (50.9%) with an empty HR/FB rate (2.7). In addition, Abrams had weakness in his exit velocity (86.5) and hard-hit rate (30.7).

Fantasy Outlook: He has limited experience at the upper levels of the minors, but Abrams should get plenty of at-bats in the majors with Washington in rebuild mode. His ADP (221) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship prices him in a range with multiple young upside middle infielders. Abrams brings excitement, and his foundation skill set may hit the ground running in 2023. Let’s set his bar at 75 runs, 10 home runs, 50 RBIs, and 35+ steals with a reasonable chance at a neutral batting average. His approach isn’t ideal to hit leadoff for the Nationals, but he appears to be their best option. Call me interested in the right team structure. On the downside, Abrams has missed time in the minors with injuries.

2B Luis Garcia

Over five seasons in the minors, Garcia hit .286 with 238 runs, 33 home runs, 163 RBIs, and 38 stolen bases over 1,551 at-bats. His average hit rate (1.328) had an empty feel over his first three years in the minors. Garcia flashed a much higher power stroke at AAA (21 home runs and 57 RBIs) while hitting for average (.306) over the past two seasons over 327 at-bats. In addition, he pushed his walk rate (9.0) to a competitive area while minimizing the damage in strikeouts (17.0%).

Washington gave Garcia 730 at-bats over the last three seasons, leading to a .264 batting average with 76 runs, 15 home runs, 83 RBIs, and four stolen bases. His strikeout rate (20.5) was slightly better than the league average with the Nationals while posting weakness in his walk rate (2.9).

Garcia came up short vs. lefties (.235 with one home run and 98 at-bats) in 2022. He graded poorly in exit velocity (87.3 – 242nd), hard-hit rate (36.7 – 209th), and launch angle (5.5 – 289th). His barrel rate (7.5 – 157th) did show growth. Garcia continues to have a groundball swing path (51.3 – 54.7 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past two seasons between AAA and the majors, Garcia scored 123 runs, hit 34 home runs, and drove in 124 runs over 923 at-bats, suggesting he has a 75/20/75 skill set with 550 at-bats when he figures out major league pitching. His ADP (305) in the high-stakes market makes Garcia a cheat middle infielder in deep formats. His approach isn’t at a point to hit high in the Nationals lineup, but there is a chance that he improves and Washington doesn’t have anyone better on the roster. His next step is improving his swing path while making harder contact.

OF Joey Meneses

From 2012 to 2017, Meneses hit .274 over 1,971 at-bats in the minors with 205 runs, 29 home runs, 219 RBIs, and nine stolen bases. However, his bat made a step forward in power (.311 with 75 runs, 23 home runs, and 82 RBIs) in 2018 over 492 at-bats. After not recording an at-bat in 2019 and 2020, Meneses played well between AA and AAA over the following two seasons (.285/96/35/134 over 708 at-bats), highlighted by his success in 2022 (.286 with 51 runs, 20 home runs, and 64 RBIs over 374 at-bats).

When the Nationals needed help in August, Meneses had his first opportunity in the majors at age 30 (called up on his birthday). He rewarded Washington with a better-than-expected run over 222 at-bats (.324/33/13/34/1). His contact batting average (.424) was well above his last four seasons in the minors (.381) while flashing a higher average hit rate (1.736).

Meneses had an approach (strikeout rate – 21.7 and walk rate – 6.3) that ranked close to the league average. His HR/FB rate (25.5) was well above any other year in the minors (2022 – 19.0 and 2021 – 16.0). He finished with a high-ranking exit velocity (91.4 – 36th) and hard-hit rate (47.1 – 43rd).

Fantasy Outlook: Meneses checked enough boxes with the Nationals for the fantasy market to give him a dance in 2023. His ADP (199) in the NFBC shows the faith other drafters have in his bat. I expect a helpful floor in batting average with an 80/25/80 season if given more than 500 at-bats.

1B Dominic Smith

After a productive 354 at-bats (.299 with 62 runs, 21 home runs, and 67 RBIs) in 2019 and 2020, Smith finished as a disappointment in 2021 while losing his way in 2022 (.194/11/0/17 over 134 at-bats). His only issue last season was a right ankle sprain that led to three weeks on the injury list and a trip to AAA for two months (.292 with 30 runs, eight home runs, and 29 RBIs over 154 at-bats).

He had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.268 – .358 over the previous three seasons) and his average hit rate (1.462 – 1.906 in 2019 and 2020). Smith pushed his walk rate (7.9) to close the league average while needing to shave off some strikeouts (24.3%).

At AAA last year, he had a much better approach (strikeout rate – 15.7 and walk rate – 10.1). Smith hit .294 over his minor league career with 371 runs, 56 home runs, 396 RBIs, and 19 stolen bases over 2,595 at-bats.

Despite not hitting a home run in the majors in 2022 over 134 at-bats, his exit velocity (89.6 – 134th) and hard-hit rate (46.5 – 59th).

Fantasy Outlook: Smith had a questionable major league resume with empty stats last season. His ADP (468) in the NFBC puts him in the free-agent pool in most redraft leagues. I expect Washington to give him plenty of at-bats this season while working him into the middle of their batting order. My starting point is .280 with 70 runs, 20 home runs, and 75 RBIs. With a hot spring, his value should rise in drafts. Smith starts the year at age 27.

C Keibert Ruiz

Over six seasons in the minors, Ruiz hit .301 with 238 runs, 50 home runs, 258 RBIs, and four steals over 1,723 at-bats. Unfortunately, Ruiz had to repeat AA in 2019, which led to a regression in his game (.254 with four home runs and 25 RBIs over 276 at-bats). In 2021, his bat at AAA had a jump in his average hit rate (1.989), leading to an impressive performance in home runs (21) over 284 at-bats. In addition, Ruiz has a short walk rate (7.0) while being tough to strike out (9.7%).

In his experience in the majors, he hit .255 with 44 runs, 11 home runs, 52 RBIs, and six steals over 490 at-bats. His contact batting average has been low in the minors (.336) and the majors (.292). Ruiz had an empty bat with Washington against lefties (.237 with no home runs and 10 RBIs over 93 at-bats). His season ended in early September due to a groin issue.

Ruiz finished last year with weakness in his HR/FB rate (5.5) compared to 15.4, 13.5, and 17.4 in his three seasons at AAA. He ranked poorly in exit velocity (88.0 – 195th) and hard-hit rate (32.2 – 271st) while posting a favorable launch angle (14.9 – 108th).

Fantasy Outlook: Ruiz has much to prove in 2023 while falling into the C2 bucket. His ADP (230) in the high-stakes market in early February is higher than his major league career path but not his talent. I only see a .260 hitter with 55 runs, 12 home runs, 55 RBIs, and five stolen bases.

3B Jeimer Candelario

Candelario didn’t have a great resume over 10 seasons in the minors. He hit .273 over 3,023 at-bats with 436 runs, 81 home runs, 469 RBIs, and eight steals. His walk rate (10.7) was in an area of strength with a better-than-league average strikeout rate (17.4). However, his bat had more value over five seasons at AAA (.298 with 132 runs, 34 home runs, and 162 RBIs over 848 at-bats).

After two disappointing years with the Tigers, Candelario played much better in 2020 and 2021 (.278 with 105 runs, 23 home runs, and 96 RBI over 742 at-bats). He had a massive jump in his contact batting average (.404) in the short Covid-19 season, but it wasn’t repeatable (.358) the following year. His approach was the best of his career (strikeout rate – 21.6 and walk rate – 10.4).

In 2022, Candelario ended up being a losing fantasy investment due to a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.291) while taking fewer walks (6.0% – 9.6 in his career). He had more production against lefties (.235/12/6/234 over 115 at-bats) than against right-handed pitching (.210/37/7/26 over 314 at-bats). A left shoulder injury led to a stint on the injured list in June. Candelario hit more flyballs (39.5% – 34.2 in 2021), but he had a second year of regression in his HR/FB rate (10.2).

Fantasy Outlook: The Nationals will give him a chance to compete for playing time at third base in 2023, but they would rather see Carter Kieboom win the job after missing last season with TJ surgery in his right elbow. Candelario has an ADP of 386 in the early draft season in the NFBC, making him only a bench player in deep formats or a short-term injury replacement. At best, 450 at-bats with no difference-maker stats.

OF Lane Thomas

Thomas had 300 at-bats over the first three seasons in the majors, leading to a .230 batting average with 46 runs, 12 home runs, 42 RBIs, and seven steals. His play over 45 games with the Nationals (.270/33/7/27/4 over 178 at-bats) helped fantasy managers down the stretch in 2021.

Washington gave him the best opportunity of his career in 2022, but he failed to make an impact in any area (.241 with 62 runs, 17 home runs, 52 RBIs, and eight stolen bases over 498 at-bats). Thomas fell short of expectations in his walk rate (7.5 – 9.6 in his career) with a slightly below-average strikeout rate (24.1). His bat played better against left-handed pitching (.253/27/8/22 over 186 at-bats) while being a disaster at home (.181/29/7/14/1 over 232 at-bats). He only played well in June (.281 over 89 at-bats with 17 runs, five home runs, and 12 RBIs). Thomas stole seven of his eight bases after the All-Star break.

Over seven seasons in the minors, he hit .254 with 295 runs, 60 home runs, 281 RBIs, and 75 stolen bases over 1,918 at-bats. His strikeout rate (25.4) was a weakness in the minors, with a favorable walk rate (9.7). His bat had growth over the previous three seasons between AA (.260 with 21 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 384 at-bats) and AAA (.272 with 21 home runs, 88 RBIs, and 18 steals over 522 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: Thomas Isn’t quite ready to be a starting fantasy bat. With a rebound in his approach, Washington may very well let him hit at the top of their lineup until someone else emerges. His ADP (273) in the high-stakes market prices him as a fourth or fifth outfielder, depending on league size. Outside chance at a 20/20 season with 550 at-bats with some batting average risk.

OF Corey Dickerson

Dickerson hasn’t had more than 500 at-bats since 2018. From 2019 to 2022, with five different franchises, he missed 381 games. He .275 over his last 1,071 at-bats with 129 runs, 31 home runs, 141 RBIs, and eight steals), painting him as 65/15/70/5 hitter with 550 at-bats. His strikeout rate (16.2) beat the league average over the previous three seasons, but Dickerson barely took any walks (4.0%) in 2022.

A calf issue led to led a month on the injured list. His average hit rate (1.493) is trending down while losing some momentum with his contact batting average (.327) over the past three seasons. Dickerson only had two hits over 26 at-bats against left-handed pitching with no runs and no RBIs. In his career, he is a .259 hitter vs. lefties with 76 runs, 16 home runs, and 74 RBIs over 754 at-bats.

Over the past three seasons, Dickerson hit more groundballs (49.2%) while having a reasonable approach (strikeout rate – 17.3 and walk rate – 6.0). However, he doesn’t gain an edge with his exit velocity (87.7) or hard-hit rate (32.8).

Fantasy Outlook: Dickerson has enough experience to work his way to full-time at-bats in 2023. His ADP (581) puts him in the free-agent in all redraft leagues.

OF Victor Robles

Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .301 with 289 runs, 32 home runs, 163 RBI, and 136 steals over 1,523 at-bats.

In the last three seasons with the Nationals, Robles hit .216 with 99 runs, 11 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 27 stolen bases over 849 at-bats. His walk rate (6.1) over this span came in below the league average with no improvement in his strikeout rate (25.6)

He struggled against right-handed pitchers (.188 with 19 runs, four home runs, and 19 RBIs over 240 at-bats). Robles finished with a balanced swing path, but his HR/FB rate (6.3) remains in a weak area.

Robles finished 311th in exit velocity (84.6) and hard-hit rate (23.8), with weakness also well in barrel rate (3.2). His launch angle (15.8) gives him a chance at some home runs when making solid contact.

Fantasy Outlook: The excitement of Robles for me left the building. He doesn’t hit the ball hard with minimal distance when the ball is in the air. His ADP (491) in the NFBC is only a late dart looking for a speed dart. There’s always a chance he improves, so a 10/35 season remains a viable outcome if Robles can secure 500 at-bats.

2B Jeter Downs

Los Angeles drafted Downs 32nd overall in the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft. He hit .267 over 1,087 at-bats in his first three seasons in minors with 186 runs, 43 home runs, 162 RBIs, and 69 stolen bases. His walk rate (11.0) gave him top-of-the-order ability while offering better than a league-average strikeout rate (19.1).

Downs didn’t see the field in 2020 due to no minor league games, thanks to the Covid concerns. Over his first two years in the Boston system, he struggled with his strikeout rate (31.1) while still taking his fair share of walks (10.3%). He only hit .193 over 641 at-bats at AAA with 95 runs, 30 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 36 stolen bases. His average hit rate (2.089) graded well in 2022, but his contact batting average (.303) did not. Downs missed the final six weeks of last season with a left ankle injury.

His bat was overmatched in his limited at-bats (39) with the Red Sox (one walk and 21 strikeouts), leading to a .154 batting average with four runs, one home run, and four RBIs.

Fantasy Outlook: His combination of home runs and stolen bases continue to bring intrigue to Down’s game, but he must regain his lost approach. The Nationals will start him out at AAA with the hopes of him lowering his strikeout rate. Down may surprise in 2023 while being down on the waiver wire in all formats.

3B Carter Kieboom

Kieboom played well in 2019 at AAA (.303 with 79 runs, 16 home runs, 79 RBIs, and five stolen over 412 at-bats). The Nationals gave him a late April call-up after the injury to Trea Turner, but he struggled to make contact (.128 over 39 at-bats with two home runs, two RBIs, and 16 strikeouts).

Over five seasons in the minors, Kieboom hit .281 with 50 home runs, 231 RBIs, and 19 steals over 1,407 at-bats. However, he struggled with Washington in 2020 and 2021 (.206 with 41 runs, six home runs, and 29 RBIs over 316 at-bats). A right elbow injury last season required TJ surgery in late May, leading to no playing time at any level.

His walk rate (11.1 – 11.9 in the majors) grades well while offering a league-average strikeout rate (19.8 – 26.8 with Washington).

Kieboom posted a low fly-ball rate (30.5) in his time with the Nationals, along with weakness in his launch angle (7.4 – 316th) and barrel rate (3.8 – 313th).

Fantasy Outlook: This draft season, fantasy managers lost the loving feeling for Kieboom based on his lower ADP (728) in the NFBC. He’ll have 10 months of recovery time before the start of 2023. For now, only a name to follow until there is a better update on his return and Kieboom’s bat shows a pulse in spring training or the minors.

Starting Pitching

SP Stephen Strasburg

In 2019, he led the National League in wins (18) and innings pitched (209.0). It was the second time in his career with over 200 innings. He also set a career-high in strikeouts (251). His strikeout rate (10.8) matched 2018 with a slight improvement in his walk rate (2.4). Strasburg finished the year with a 1.89 ERA and 50 strikeouts over his last 38 innings while also shining in the big moments in the playoffs (5-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 47 strikeouts over 36.1 innings).

After the best season of his career, Strasburg only made two poor starts the following year due to a nerve issue in his right hand that required surgery in late August. In 2021, he turned in another injury-plagued season, leading to only five starts (4.57 ERA and 47% first-pitch strike rate) and two stints on the injured list (right shoulder and neck). Strasburg had thoracic outlet surgery in late July.

Last season, he made three appearances in the minors (three runs and 10 baserunners over 13.2 innings with 13 strikeouts) before making his only start for the Nationals on June 9th (seven runs, 10 baserunners, and one home run over 4.2 innings). After that, Washington placed him on the injured list for the rest of the season with a stress reaction in his ribs.

Strasburg enters his 14th season in major league baseball with a record of 113-62, 3.24 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, and 1,723 strikeouts over 1,470 innings.

His average fastball was below 92 MPH in 2020 and 2021, well below his velocity from 2017 to 2019 (95.9, 95.1, and 94.1). When at his best, Strasburg offers a plus changeup (.142 BAA) and curveball (.170 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Fantasy managers will have much to consider when adding Strasburg to their fantasy roster again in 2023. He has an excellent major league resume but struggles to pitch more than 180 innings. In addition, I’m not a fan of any pitcher having thoracic outlet surgery. His ADP in the NFBC was 29 in 2020, 70 in 2021, and 319 in 2022, and 663 in 2023. Over the past three years, Strasburg only pitched 31.1 combined innings. Nevertheless, based on his previous success, Strasburg should outpitch his price point while gaining draft momentum with any positive reports from spring training.

SP Josiah Gray

In 2019, Gray pushed his way through three levels of the minors by going 11-2 over 130 innings with a 2.28 ERA and 147 strikeouts. He allowed two runs over five innings with 10 strikeouts in his first start at AAA in 2021. Unfortunately, Gray landed on the minor league injured list for two months with a right shoulder issue.

The Dodgers called him up after three brief appearances in July (three runs over 10.2 innings with 12 strikeouts). At the trade deadline, the Nationals acquired Gray in a deal for SP Max Scherzer and SS Trea Turner. He looked sharp over his first five starts (2.89 ERA over 28 innings with 29 strikeouts) with Washington, but Gray gave away his gains in his next four disaster games (22 runs, 34 baserunners, and six home runs over 17.1 innings with 15 strikeouts).

In his first entire season in the majors, Gray led the National League in walks (66) and home runs allowed (38), leading to weakness in his walk rate (4.0) and HR/9 rate (2.3). He allowed four runs or more in 12 of his 28 starts, with his best run coming over five starts (2-0 with a 1.24 ERA, .155 BAA, and 31 strikeouts over 29 innings) from May 29th to June 25th. Much of his failure came against left-handed batters (.265 with 22 home runs over 234 at-bats). Gray had an ERA of more than 5.00 in May (5.74), July (6.75), August (5.06), and September (6.75).

His average fastball (94.4) came in above the league average. Batters struggled to hit his curveball (.189 BAA) and slider (.183 BAA) while creaming his four-seamer (.303 BAA and .729 SLG – 23 home runs allowed). Gray is a flyball pitcher (49.2%) with failure in his HR/FB rate (18.6).

Fantasy Outlook: Gray came into last season with only 55 innings of experience at AA and AAA, which is part of the reason for his struggles. His minor league resume suggests much better command, and Gray has two plus secondary pitches. His ADP (388) in the NFBC removes some of his downside risk, as fantasy managers can release him if home runs and walks are a problem again in 2023. Buy the strikeouts and hope his arm is much improved this year.

SP MacKenzie Gore

The Padres drafted Gore with the third overall pick in the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school.

After a down 2018 season at A Ball (4.45 ERA) while battling blister issues, his arm shined in 2019. He dominated over 15 starts at High A (7-1 with a 1.02 ERA and 110 strikeouts over 79.1 innings) while allowing just 36 hits. However, a push to AA led to some regression in his stuff (4.15 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 21.2 innings).

In 2021, Gore lost his confidence and mechanics, leading to a disappointing season. He pitched only 50.1 innings, coming across four different levels of baseball. In addition, his arm had no answer for AAA batters (5.85 ERA, 1.800 WHIP, three home runs, and 12 walks over 20 innings).

After an excellent first start at AAA (no runs over five innings with seven strikeouts), the Padres called him up to the majors. Gore looked major league ready over his first nine games in 2022 (1.50 ERA, 1.063 WHIP. .200 BAA, and 57 strikeouts over 48 innings). Five starts later, he gave away all of his gains (23 runs, 46 baserunners, and five home runs over 20.1 innings) while seeing his season end in August with a right elbow injury and a ticket to Washington.

His average fastball (94.8) fell in line with his limited time in the majors while grading well (.221 BAA). Gore succeeded with his slider (.188 BAA) over his first nine games, but batters hit .381 against it for the remainder of the season. His curveball (.268 BAA) was a liability.

Fantasy Outlook: Gore has a high upside arm. The loss of his fastball velocity after June 5th and the decline of his slider suggests he’s closer to TJ surgery than a winning 2023 season. His ADP (393) in the high-stakes market has a risk/reward feel while also hinging on his success in spring training. An easy fade for me.

SP Cade Cavalli

Despite a dull career in college (8-7 with a 4.09 ERA and 114 strikeouts over 101.1 innings), Washington selected Cavalli as the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. In his first season in the minors, he offered a plus strikeout rate (12.8) while issuing too many walks (60 over 123.1 innings).

Cavalli dominated over seven starts at High A (3-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 71 strikeouts over 40.2 innings). His walk rate (5.4) doubled at AA, but he still posted a 2.95 ERA over 58 innings with 80 strikeouts. Washington gave Cavalli six more starts at AAA, but he lost his confidence, resulting in a 7.66 ERA and 1.865 WHIP over 24.2 innings.

In 2022 at AAA, he went 6-4 with a 3.71 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 97 innings while showing growth in his walk rate (3.6). Cavalli missed time in July with a finger injury. His season ended in late August with a right shoulder issue after one start with the Nationals (seven runs and eight baserunners over 4.1 innings with six strikeouts.

His average fastball (96.2) had plenty of life while featuring a curveball, slider, and changeup.

Fantasy Outlook: His scouting report paints a much higher ceiling than his stats show. Cavalli started his college career as a hitter (.234 over 265 at-bats with 47 runs, 10 home runs, and 45 RBIs) before becoming a full-time pitcher in 2020. Covid-19 shut down his college season in 2021, leading to less development time than expected. Cavalli can’t help Washington until he learns to locate his pitches better in and out of the strike zone. His ADP (465) in the NFBC makes him a late flier in deep formats while offering WHIP risk early in his career.

SP Patrick Corbin

Reading between baseball player stats can be like watching a magician at work with his sleight of hand motions. Just when it appears the trick is solved, another version of itself appears a moment later. Corbin rode his plus slider (.149 and .155 BAA) to success in ERA in 2018 (3.15) and 2019 (3.25), but his illusion ended with disaster over his last 73 starts (17-42 with a 5.82 ERA and 331 strikeouts over 390.0 innings).

His recent decline starts with a fading strikeout rate (7.5 – 11.1 in 2018 and 10.6 in 2019) while issuing more walks (2.9 per nine). Corbin allowed the most runs (111) and home runs (37) in the National League in 2021 and the most hits (210) and earned runs (107) last season.

Corbin had no answer for right-handed batters (.320 with 24 home runs, 38 walks, and 103 strikeouts over 525 at-bats).

His average fastball (92.1) was higher than in 2018 (91.3) and 2019 (92.3). Batters succeeded against all four of his pitches (four-seamer – .300 BAA, sinker – .318 BAA, slider – .303 BAA, and changeup – .392 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Corbin is an easy avoid, but Washington has $24 million reasons to start him all season.

SP Trevor Williams

After a growth season in 2018 (14-10 with a 3.11 ERA and 126 strikeouts over 170.2 innings), Williams pitched his way out of a starting job. He went 16-24 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.412 WHIP, and 336 strikeouts over his last 381.2 innings. His walk rate (2.7) improved over the past two seasons, with a jump in his strikeout rate (8.7).

Williams pitched well in 2022, leading to a 3.21 ERA and 84 strikeouts over 89.2 innings. Despite his success, he struggled against lefties (.319 over 138 at-bats with only 13 strikeouts). His best stats came in relief (2.47 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 51 innings).

His average fastball (91.2) was a career-low, but Williams didn’t create an edge with his secondary pitches (slider – .275 BAA, changeup – .311 BAA, and curveball – .333 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Williams improved last year, but he only has an innings-eater feel if asked to pitch an extended time in the Nationals’ starting rotation. He may offer some playable starts during the year as a waiver wire pickup.

SP Jake Irvin

Irvin missed 2020 and 2021 due to no minor league baseball and TJ surgery. Over his three seasons in the minors, he went 9-12 with a 3.64 ERA and 235 strikeouts over 252.1 innings. His strikeout rate (9.4) was a career-best in 2022 while improving his walk rate (2.4).

His fastball has an upper 90s upside while offering a plus curveball and a developing changeup. Irvin turned 26 in February while never throwing a pitch at AAA.

Fantasy Outlook: The Nationals need help in their starting rotational, pointing to Irvin getting a chance to be called up this summer. His arm may draw some attention in spring training, but he still needs development time.

Bullpen

RP Kyle Finnegan

From 2016 to 2019, Finnegan worked as a closer in Oakland’s system. He went 8-12 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.318 WHIP, 246 strikeouts, and 47 saves over 219.1 innings. However, his walk rate (3.5) and strikeout rate (7.5) limited his upside over his seven seasons in the minors.

Washington gave Finnegan a major league opportunity over the past three years, leading to a 12-13 record with a 3.43 ERA and 165 strikeouts over 157.1 innings. He converted 22 of 30 save chances in 2021 and 2022.

Finnegan lowered his walk rate (3.0 – 3.9 in his career) last season while serving up some home runs (1.2 per nine). He threw the ball well over his final 38 games (3.10 ERA, 1.008 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts over 40.2 innings) despite one disaster game (five runs and six baserunners over two-thirds of an inning). His risk came against right-handed batters (.264 with seven home runs over 140 at-bats).

His average fastball (97.0) was a career-best while working off two winning pitches (four-seamer – .228 BAA and split-finger – .212 BAA). Unfortunately, Finnegan lost the feel of his slider (.308 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: He made strides last season, helped by more zip on his fastball. Finnegan has never worked as a closer for the whole year at any time in his career. His ADP (229) in the high-stakes market puts him in a risky range if he can’t produce at least 25 saves. I need to see success and repeated command in spring training before investing.

RP Hunter Harvey

Over eight seasons in the minors, Harvey posted a 3.59 ERA, 315 strikeouts, and one save over 268 innings. However, he struggled at AA (5.91 ERA) and AAA (5.04 ERA) while battling injuries in too many seasons.

Last year, Harvey had his best success in the majors (2.52 ERA and 45 strikeouts over 39.1 innings), but he did miss a couple of months with a forearm injury.

His average fastball (98.3) was electric in velocity and success (four-seamer – .194 BAA). Harvey made progress with his developing split-finger fastball (.241 BAA), but his curveball (.625 BAA) was ineffective.

Fantasy Outlook: Harvey could steal the closing role for the Nationals, but his injury past suggests don’t overpay for him on draft day. His ADP (516) in the NFBC gives him handcuff value in deep formats. I do sense TJ surgery is in his future.

RP Carl Edwards

Edwards looked closer-worthy in 2017 and 2018 when he went 8-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 161 strikeouts over 118.1 innings. Over this span, his walk rate (5.3) was a massive liability for pitching in the ninth. Edwards struggled over his following three seasons (7.90 ERA and 1.537 WHIP over 27.1 innings) while battling a right shoulder injury.

Last season, he regained his previous form (6-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 62 innings). His walk rate (3.6) was a career-best, but Edwards did battle home runs (1.2 per nine).

His average fastball (94.6) was his best since 2018. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.224), curveball (.220 BAA), and changeup (.200 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Edwards doesn’t look ready to pitch in the ninth without further growth in his command. Only a player to follow if Kyle Finnegan struggles.

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