2023 Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Philadelphia Phillies.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 Philadelphia Phillies

After missing the postseason from 2012 to 2021, the Phillies won their way into the playoff via a wild card spot last year. They parleyed their opportunity to a loss in the World Series against the Houston Astros. Philadelphia only had two postseason appearances from 1903 to 1975, with both resulting in losses in the championship series. They have two pockets (1976 to 1983 and 2007 to 2010) where the Phillies reached the playoff 11 times. Their two World Series titles came in 1980 and 2008.

Philadelphia finished 17th in ERA (3.97) with more weakness in their bullpen (28 wins, 28 losses and 42 saves over 531.2 innings with a 4.27 ERA – 23rd). They ranked 7th in runs (747), sixth in home runs (205), 7th in RBIs (719). The Phillies hit .253 (8th) with fifth in stolen bases (105).

Their top signing was SS Trea Turner ($300 million for 11 seasons). In addition, Philadelphia also added SP Taijuan Walker, RP Craig Kimbrel, IF Josh Harrison, and RP Matt Strahm. The Phillies acquired RP Gregory Soto from the Tigers for OF Nick Maton, OF Matt Vierling, and C Donny Sands. They lost SP Noah Syndergaard, SP Kyle Gibson, SP Zach Eflin, 2B Jean Segura, and RP David Robertson.

The success of Philadelphia falls on the health and success of SP Aaron Nola and SP Zack Wheeler. The back of their starting rotation can’t match the best teams in baseball, but they have a developing ace knocking on the door on the minors (SP Andrew Painter).

The Phillies have some wildness in their bullpen, with multiple players vying for their closing job. I don’t expect Philadelphia to have an edge late in late games.

The top of the Phillies’ lineup has a lot of power and stars, giving Philadelphia a competitive offense again in 2023. In addition, they have multiple rising hitters at the back end of their batting order.

Starting Lineup

2B Bryson Stott

Philadelphia drafted Stott with the 14th overall selection in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons in college, he hit .340 with 157 runs, 15 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases over 688 at-bats. He finished with an impressive walk rate (13.4) while striking out 10.0% of the time.

In 2021, Stott made the push from High A to AAA, leading to a .299 batting average with 71 runs, 16 home runs, 49 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 418 at-bats. His walk rate (13.3) held form, but his strikeout rate (22.2) slipped below the league average.

He made the Phillies’ opening-day roster last season, but Philadelphia sent him back to AAA after struggling to make contact over his first 30 at-bats (10 strikeouts, four hits, and one walk). After more emptiness in the majors in May (.116 with three runs and four RBIs over 43 at-bats), Stott turned the corner over his next 49 games (.232/28/7/25/4 over 164 at-bats). His production (26/3/17/8 over 190 at-bats) wasn’t an edge over the final third of the year, but he did look more comfortable at the plate based on his batting average (.279).

Stott played well enough against lefties (.226 with 17 runs, two runs, and 14 RBIs over 99 at-bats) to be in the lineup every day this season. However, his contact batting average (.296) came in well below his previous resume in the minors (.402) and college (.386), pointing to a much higher batting average going forward. In addition, his average hit rate (1.530) and HR/FB rate (8.3) fell short of expectations.

Fantasy Outlook: Stott looks poised to have a breakout season, putting on a path to higher in the Phillies lineup. His ADP (216) in early January in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship ranks him as the 21st second baseman or 20th shortstop drafted. Stott brings a balanced skill set that has a chance to deliver 20+ home runs and stolen bases with help in runs and batting average. His AAA development year (only 69 at-bats) came in the majors in 2022. Next season, Stott will be drafted inside the top 100 picks.

C J.T. Realmuto

Realmuto finished with his best all-around season in 2022. He set career-highs in RBIs (84) and steals (21), with a jump in his contact batting average (.389). His strikeout rate (21.1) remains close to the league average (21.2) while trending higher in his walk rate (8.1) over the past three years.

Over his first 75 games, Realmuto hit .236 with 39 runs, seven home runs, 35 RBIs, and 11 steals. He regained his power (15 home runs) and batting average (.322) over his final 233 at-bats with help in runs (36), RBIs (49), and stolen bases (10).

His bat played much better at home (.314/40/12/50/10 over 255 at-bats) and against right-handed pitching (.281/54/17/62/16 over 363 at-bats).

He finished 27th in FPGscore (4.78) compared to 43rd in 2021 (0.77). In addition, Realmuto ranked 67th in exit velocity (90.3) and 39th in hard-hit rate (47.2 – career-high with three consecutive years of improvement).

Fantasy Outlook: After losing value in stolen bases from 2017 and 2020 (24 over 1,720 at-bats), Realmuto set career-highs in steals (13 and 21) after the age of 29. He continues to rank as the top fantasy catcher, but that would change quickly with a step back in speed. His ADP (26) in the high-stakes market ranks Realmuto as the 21st batter off the board. Over the past five seasons, his contact batting average (.361) has been a tight range, setting a neutral floor in batting average. With 500 at-bats, .270 with 75/20/75/10 with a wide range of opportunities in the batting order.

SS Trea Turner

Over the last 367 games, Turner has been the best fantasy player in baseball by FPGscore (5.09 – 1st, 10.03 – 1st, and 9.52 – 3rd) for hitters. He hit .316 over 1,480 at-bats with 254 runs, 61 home runs, 218 RBIs, and 71 stolen bases. His contact batting has been elite in 2019 (.380), 2020 (.396), and 2021 (.402) but only .372 last season.

Turner had the same success against lefties (.298 BAA) and righties (.298 BAA), but more of his power (10 home runs and 29 RBIs over 168 at-bats) came vs. left-handed pitching. His best output came from May 1st to July 31st over 335 at-bats (.316/52/15/56/14).

Turner continues to have a favorable strikeout rate (18.5), with two consecutive years of weakness in his walk rate (6.6 and 6.4). He has been an outstanding hitter with runners on base over the previous four seasons (RBI rate – 18.6).

His exit velocity (88.9 – 148th), hard-hit rate (41.6 – 118th), and barrel rate (7.6 – 154th) can’t match the top players in the game with a lower finish in launch angle (10.2 – 223rd). He set a career-high flyball rate (35.7 – 33.6 in his career). Turner had a step back in his HR/FB rate (11.2 – 17.0 in 2021 and 17.4 in 2020).

Fantasy Outlook: Turner draws the second ADP (1.4) in the NFBC in the early draft season. A move to a better hitter’s park, paired with rule changes to improve his output in stolen bases, points to another high-ranking year. His growth with runners on base may lead to him batting third in 2023 until Bryce Harper returns. He did have a weaker average hit rate (1.536) with a sliding exit velocity suggesting another 30-home run season may be a lot to ask. Turner should be on a path to hitting higher than .300 with 100 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 35 steals.

OF Nick Castellanos

After his career season in 2021, Castellanos played his worst ball last season since 2016. He hit .286 with 393 runs, 124 home runs, 397 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases over 2,598 at-bats from 2017 to 2021, which works out to 83 runs, 26 home runs, 84 RBIs, and two steals with 550 at-bats.

Over his first 91 at-bats (.308/12/4/15) in 2022, his bat appeared to be on track for a competitive season. Castellanos took a pitch to his right wrist on May 5th, but no missed time. He lost his power stroke over 272 at-bats from May 15th to July 31st (.243/22/3/28) with a slight uptick in August (.300 with 13 runs, five home runs, 12 RBIs, and three steals over 100 at-bats). An oblique injury led to three weeks on the injured list in September.

Castellanos had a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.478 – 1.866 in 2021 and 1.712 in his career), highlighted by his regression in his HR/FB rate (8.6 – 23.7 in 2020 and 22.8 in 2021). He finished with a weaker walk rate (5.2) and a career average strikeout rate (23.3).

His exit velocity (87.7 – 89.8 in 2021) was the lowest of his career. Castellanos ranked poorly in hard-hit rate (35.1 – 230th ~ 40.1 in his career) and barrel rate (6.6 – 181st).

Fantasy Outlook: The Phillies paid him $100 million in 2022 for five seasons. Castellanos clearly lost his way last season. His previous five years of success should outweigh his one down year. In early February, he had an ADP of 130 in the NFBC as the 30th outfielder selected. I expect a rebound year, leading to steady production in four categories (.280/80/25/80) with minimal steals.

OF Kyle Schwarber

Over the past four years, Schwarber hit .236 with 288 runs, 127 home runs, 281 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases over 1,696 at-bats. He set career-highs in at-bats (577), runs (100), home runs (46), RBIs (94), and steals (10) in 2022. His home run total was the most in the majors, along with his strikeouts (200).

After a slow start in batting average (.185 with 27 runs, 11 home runs, and 23 RBIs over 173 at-bats), Schwarber was a more valuable asset over the final four months (.233/73/35/71/8 over 404 at-bats). He had production (10 home runs and 30 RBIs over 197 at-bats) against left-handed pitching while falling short in batting average (.193).

His strikeout rate (29.9) was his highest since 2016. Schwarber takes plenty of walks (12.9%). He finished with a massive jump in his flyball rate (51.1 – 40.9 in 2021). His launch ankle (19.2 – 30th), barrel rate (20.1 – 3rd), and hard-hit rate (54.4 – 5th) were all career highs while matching 2021 in exit velocity (93.3 – 4th). Schwarber had a minimal change in his HR/FB rate (24.0 – 24.8 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: Last year, his FPGscore (5.52) ranked 21st for hitters. This draft season, Schwarber has an ADP of 60 in the NFBC as the 37th batter selected. Without a rebound in batting average, I don’t see him hitting first or second in the batting after the Phillies signed Trea Turner. He brings elite power with a chance to help in runs and RBIs. Schwarber has the look of an 80/35/90/5 player with plenty of batting average risk.

1B Rhys Hoskins

After battling some injuries in 2020 and 2021 (TJ and abdomen surgeries), Hoskins set a career-high in at-bats (589), leading to steady production in runs (81), home runs (30), and RBIs (79). He ranked 54th in FPGscore (1.34) for hitters.

Hoskins finished with a career-high strikeout rate (25.2) and a weaker but favorable walk rate (10.7 – 13.5 in his career). In addition, his average hit rate (1.876) was a five-year low, while his contact batting average (.345) has been in a tight range over the past three seasons.

From May 1st to August 31st, Hoskins delivered his best production (.260/59/24/59 over 407 at-bats). His swing path became more balanced due to a sharp decline in his flyball rate (41.7 – over 50% from 2018 to 2021). He ranked 78th in exit velocity (90.1) and hard-hit rate (44.3) while continuing to have a high launch angle (18.1).

Fantasy Outlook: Hoskins made some strides to become a better overall hitter last season, with a hint of a higher batting average if he lowers his strikeout rate and maintains some of his growth in his line drive rate (22.6). His ADP (130) in the NFBC fits someone looking for a first baseman with plus power. Possible .250 with 90 runs, 35 home runs, and 90 RBIs.

3B Alec Bohm

Bohm made the jump from AA (238 at-bats) to the majors was relative ease in 2020. He posted an elite contact batting average (.435), which came in well above his success in college (.365) and the minors (.347). However, his average hit rate (1.426) fell well short of expectations for his size (6’5” and 220 lbs.) and his college career (1.731).

In 2021, Bohm lost his approach (strikeout rate – 27.8 and walk rate – 6.2) over his 53 games, leading to regression in his bat (.203 with 19 runs, four home runs, and 24 RBIs). In June, he gained some momentum in batting average (.329 over 79 at-bats), but he failed to hit a home run. Bohn missed time in July with Covid-19, and his struggles (.260/13/3/12 over 100 at-bats) led to Philadelphia sending him back to the minors on August 22nd. In September, a wrist issue led to only seven more at-bats (three hits) in the big leagues.

His bat showed growth last season over his first 34 games (.313/17/2/15 over 112 at-bats), but a three-week slump (.168/12/2/5 over 95 at-bats) with a higher strikeout rate (30.4) left fantasy supporters questioning his playability over the second of the year. Bohm didn’t show power (three home runs) over his next 147 at-bats, but he shined at the plate (.374 with 22 runs and 21 RBIs). In August and September, his production did improve (28 runs, six home runs, and 31 RBIs over 232 at-bats) despite a pullback in batting average (.250).

Bohm lowered his groundball rate (46.1 – 52.9 in 2021), but his home run rate (8.8) regressed from 2020 (12.5) and 2021 (11.3). His exit velocity has been over 90 mph each season with Philly, but he finished with regression in his hard-hit rate (43.0). Bohn ranks poorly in barrel rate (6.8 – 171st) while improving his launch angle (10.4 – 5.6 in 2021).

Fantasy Outlook: Bohm can be had with pick 183 in the early draft season in the NFBC. Last season, he lowered his strikeout rate (17.4) but had a regression in his walk rate (4.9). The sum of his parts doesn’t line up to be a star in 2023, but his bat has a higher ceiling. Bohn ranked 74th in the NFBC in FPGscore (0.18), making him the seventh piece to the puzzle in 12-team formats. His average hit rate (1.421) suggests that 20+ home runs might be a lot to ask for at this point in his career. I believe in his bat has a higher ceiling, giving him a chance at a .280/75/20/75/5 season.

1B Darick Hall

Over six seasons in the minors, Hall hit .250 with 337 runs, 126 home runs, 432 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 2,365 at-bats. He has two years of experience at AAA (.242/105/42/148/6 over 794 at-bats) while striking out 21.9% of the time with a favorable walk rate (10.6).

His contact batting average (.339) sets a low bar to push higher in batting average. Hall graded well in average hit rate (1.922) in the minors.

With the Phillies, he flashed power (nine home runs and 16 RBIs over 136 at-bats), but he lost his approach (strikeout rate – 31.0 and walk rate – 3.5).

Fantasy Outlook: Hall offers plus power while looking like a platoon option for Philadelphia based on his early look vs. lefties (0-for-12 with no walks and seven strikeouts). His ADP (620) puts him in the free agent pool in all redraft leagues. Hall should help the Phillies bridge the gap at DH until Bryce Harper returns. He is a viable injury cover if his bat starts hot in April.

OF Brandon Marsh

The Phillies acquired Marsh over the summer to upgrade their long-term outlook in centerfield. His glove and arm grade are his greatest assets, while his bat is trailing as far as approach and power.

Over five seasons in the minors, he hit .289 with 25 home runs, 177 RBIs, and 47 steals over 1,175 at-bats. Marsh will take walks (11.2), but his strikeout rate (24.2) needs work. He only has 101 at-bats of experience at AAA (.267 with 27 runs, three home runs, 11 RBIs, and four stolen bases).

Marsh gained 424 at-bats of experience between the Angels and Phillies last season, leading to a .245 batting average with 49 runs, 11 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. However, strikeouts (34.3%) continue to hold back his development while falling short of his minor league career in walk rate (6.1). In addition, his bat came up empty on too many nights vs. left-handed pitching (.188 with two home runs and seven RBIs over 96 at-bats) while whiffing 44 times.

Marsh did play better over his 138 at-bats (.288 with 15 runs, three home runs, 15 RBIs, and two steals) after arriving in Philadelphia.

Fantasy Outlook: Marsh has 660 at-bats in the majors, but he looks a year away from helping fantasy teams. His ADP (285) in the NFBC puts him in the starting lineup for some teams. Marsh had an uptick in power and speed last season, so his next is lower his strikeout rate. He has had a high contact batting average over the past four seasons, suggesting that his bat make come quicker than I believe.

SS Edmundo Sosa

Sosa hit .278 with 313 runs, 44 home runs, 237 RBIs, and 37 steals over 2,098 at-bats in his eight seasons in the minors. His best success came at AAA (.283 with 101 runs, 22 home runs, 89 RBIs, and seven stolen bases over 644 at-bats). His walk rate (5.6) has been low, with a respectable strikeout rate (16.9).

Over the past two seasons with the Cardinals and Phillies, Sosa hit .271 with 65 runs, eight runs, 48 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 464 at-bats. He offered a ground ball swing path (49.4) while ranking poorly in his HR/FB rate (4.8) and hard-hit rate (29.7 – 360th).

Fantasy Outlook: Philadelphia will use Sosa as a utility infielder in 2023. His bat is trending below replacement value.

DH Bryce Harper

After his first 64 games last season, Harper hit .318 with 49 runs, 15 home runs, 48 RBIs, and nine steals over 242 at-bats, putting him on pace for the best year of his career (111 runs, 34 home runs, 109 RBIs, and 20 stolen bases with 550 at-bats). Unfortunately, he took a pitch to his left thumb in late June, landing him on the injured list for two months. Harper failed to make an impact over his final 128 at-bats (.227/14/3/17/2).

His season started with a right elbow injury that required TJ surgery in the last week of November. As a result, he only played in the outfield for eight games. The Phillies expect him to be out of action for half of 2023 while only working as DH when Harper returns.

He continues to have a good approach (strikeout rate – 20.4 and walk rate – 10.8) while showing more growth with runners on base (RBI rate – 18). His average hit rate (1.792) was a five-year low while maintaining a high contact batting average (.375).

Harper’s bat had less value against lefties (.256 with three home runs and 17 RBIs over 117 at-bats). His swing was on fire in May and June (.352/32/12/34/6 over 159 at-bats). He finished the year with a weaker flyball rate (34.5 – 37.3 in his career) and his lowest HR/FB rate (18.2 – 20.9 in his career) since 2016.

Fantasy Outlook: For reference, Shohei Ohtani had TJ surgery on October 1st, 2018. His first appearance with the Angels the following season came on May 7th (seven months of recovery time). Based on this, Harper has a reasonable chance of returning to the majors in early July with no setbacks. However, his ADP (176) in the high-stakes market seems a bit pricey. With a half-season of action, a 50/15/50/10 outcome is viable, but that is assuming Harper hits the ground running. Therefore, I will fade him unless his ADP slides to the 300s. I don’t want to tie up one of my bench slots for three months.

Starting Pitching

SP Aaron Nola

Over the past five seasons, batters hit only .220 against Nola, with an excellent strikeout rate (10.4) and a favorable walk rate (2.4). He went 54-40 with a 3.47 ERA and 1,007 strikeouts over 871.2 innings. His last missed start came in early in May of 2017.

Nola finished with the lowest walk rate (1.3) in back-to-back seasons, but he had a drop in his strikeout rate (10.3 – 11.1 in 2021 and 12.1 in 2020) last year. Despite his success in ERA (3.25) and WHIP (0.961), he allowed four runs or more in 11 of his 32 starts (52 runs, 85 baserunners, and 14 home runs over 64.2 innings). Nola posted a 1.48 ERA and 0.798 WHIP over his other 140.1 innings.

His average fastball (93.0) is about league average while almost matching his previous five seasons. Nola continues to have an elite curveball (.204 BAA), but his changeup (.308 BAA) and cutter (.246 BAA) lost momentum. He had much more success with his four-seamer (.213 BAA) and sinker (.200 BAA) than in 2021 (.254/.263).

Fantasy Outlook: Nola checks the command and strikeout boxes while being challenging to hit. Unfortunately, he struggles to string good starts together, paired with some risk in home runs. His ERA (3.82) over the last 110 starts doesn’t paint him as a front-line ace. Nola finished last season 13th in FPGscore (5.16) for pitchers, supporting his 2023 ADP (37) in the NFBC. The potential is there to reach a high ceiling, but I view him only steady SP2 arm.

SP Zack Wheeler

Since arriving in Philadelphia, Wheeler went 30-19 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, and 463 strikeouts over 437.1 innings, highlighted by his excellent 2021 season (2.78 ERA and 247 strikeouts over 213.1 innings). Over the snap, his walk rate (2.0) has been the best of his career.

He started last year with a right shoulder injury while also missing a couple of days in May with Covid-19. After two round showings (11 runs and 18 baserunners over eight innings), Wheeler went 11-2 with a 1.97 ERA, 0.956 WHIP, and 126 strikeouts over 114 innings. He struggled in his next two starts (10 runs and 19 baserunners over 11.1 innings), leading to a month on the injured list with a right forearm injury. Wheeler looked sharp over his final three games (one run over 15 innings with one walk and 15 strikeouts) plus success in the postseason (2.78 ERA, 0.729 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts over 35.2 innings).

His average fastball (96.3) was one mph lower than in 2021. Batters struggled to hit Wheeler’s four-seamer (.190 BAA), slider (.214 BAA), curveball (.193 BAA), and sinker (.190 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Between the regular season and the postseason, Wheeler pitched 188.2 innings with a 2.81 ERA and 196 strikeouts. He finished 35th in FPGscore (2.28) for pitchers. His ADP (54) in the high-stakes market ranks him as the 14th for starting pitchers. I’m always fearful of forearm injuries, so Wheeler won’t be a target in 2023. His recent success will be challenging to pass up, so proceed with caution.

SP Ranger Suarez

From 2015 to 2018 in the minors, Suarez went 23-13 with a 2.43 ERA and 286 strikeouts over 348.1 innings. He tripped up at AAA in 2019 (5.68 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and eight home runs over 38 innings with 32 strikeouts), but Philly still gave him a chance in the majors.

Over his first 44 games with Philadelphia, he had a 4.66 ERA, 1.552 WHIP, and 54 strikeouts over 67.2 innings. They called him up in 2021 on May 9th to pitch out of their bullpen. Suarez earned a shot at closing after allowing two runs and 11 hits over 27.1 innings with 23 strikeouts. Over his next 11 games, he went 2-1 with four saves over 13 innings with 19 strikeouts. The Phillies decided to move him into the starting rotation in early August. Suarez posted a 1.51 ERA over his final 65.2 innings with 65 strikeouts.

In 2022, he fell short of expectations over his first 15 starts (6-5 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.456 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts over 79 innings). After two weeks on the injured list with a back issue, Suarez rallied over 13 games after the All-Star break (2.33 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts over 73.1 innings) before tripping up in his final appearance (six runs, nine baserunners, and three home runs over three innings).

Suarez had more issues with right-handed batters (.263 BAA, 13 home runs, and 53 walks over 476 at-bats). He continues to be a groundball pitcher (55.4%).

His average fastball (93.4) had a slight step back in velocity due to the increase of innings pitched. He lost the feel of his four-seamer (.327 BAA) and cutter (.250 BAA). Batters struggled to hit his sinker (.206 BAA), changeup (.235 BAA), curveball (.220 BAA), and slider (.191 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Suarez must regain his command to help increase his chance of becoming a valuable fantasy arm. His underwhelming WHIP (1.333) and low strikeouts put him in the flier range in the early draft season in the NFBC based on his ADP (297). A possible manageable arm with upside and matchup value.

SP Taijuan Walker

Walker only pitched four games in 2018 and 2019 (3.21 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 14 innings) due to TJ surgery in April of 2018. His progress was slowed by a right shoulder strain in 2019, leading to Walker tossing one shutout inning with one strikeout.

In 2020, Walker struggled in two of his first three starts (nine runs, 16 baserunners, and two home runs over seven innings). However, his arm was impressive over his other nine starts (1.36 ERA, 0.9928 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts over 46.1 innings).

Over his first 17 games in 2021, he went 7-3 with a 2.66 ERA, .205 BAA, and 95 strikeouts over 94.2 innings. Unfortunately, Walker gave away all of his gains over his next four starts (20 runs, 36 baserunners, and seven home runs over 15 innings). In addition, his arm had more downs than ups over his last nine starts (5.66 ERA) due to 13 home runs over 49.1 innings.

Walker had the best season of his career in 2022 (12-5 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts over 157.1 innings). He finished with improvement in his walk rate (2.6) and success in lowering the damage in home runs allowed (0.9 per nine). Unfortunately, his strikeout rate (7.6) was the lowest of his career.

He started the season with a right shoulder issue. Walker pitched much better over his 15-start stretch (2.53 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, and 73 strikeouts over 92.1 innings). Home runs (8) became an issue in August and September (4.83 ERA and 1.315 WHIP over 54 innings).

His average fastball (93.8) regressed slightly. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.219 BAA), cutter (.200 BAA), curveball (.235 BAA), and split-finger fastball (.193 BAA). Walker lost the feel of his four-seamer (.272 BAA) and sinker (.329 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Over his last 58 starts, he averaged only 5.5 innings, making it challenging to make an impact in wins and strikeouts. His ADP (313) in the NFBC looks to have more risk than reward. With any regression in command and more home runs allowed, Walker would become a liability in ERA and WHIP. I have him on my avoid list.

SP Andrew Painter

Based on his start to his minor league career (6-2 with a 1.48 ERA, 0.875 WHIP, and 167 strikeouts over 109.2 innings), Painter is on the fast track to the majors. He buzzed through A, High A, and AA last season, pointing to a quick trip to AAA and the majors in 2023. His exceptional command (2.1 walks per nine) improved as he moved up through the minors.

Painter brings a high 90s fastball with two exciting swing-and-miss pitches (curveball and slider). Once his changeup develops, he’ll rank with the best pitcher in the game.

Fantasy Outlook: With 103.2 innings under his belt last season, his natural progression should be between 140 and 150 innings in 2022. The Phillies are in a win-now mode, so I expect Painter to be on the major league roster early in the season, possibly on opening day. His ADP (336) in the high-stakes market will rise quickly in March from his success on the mound. I’m buying but hoping the team-speak keeps his value off other fantasy teams’ radar.

SP Bailey Falter

Falter pitched well over 60 games from 2015 to 2018 in the minors, leading to a 2.94 ERA, 1.177 WHIP, and 278 strikeouts over 300 innings. His arm had a step back in value in 2019 at AA (3.84 ERA, 1.254 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts over 77.1 innings) while making only 14 starts due to an unknown injury.

Over the past two seasons, Falter had no problem handling AAA (6-1 with a 1.85 ERA, 0.670 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts over 77.2 innings). His walk rate (1.7) was elite in the minors while posting some help in strikeouts (8.6 per nine).

The Phillies used him in relief in 2021 (5.61 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 33.2 innings). Last year, Falter underperformed over his first 10 games with Philadelphia (5.18 ERA, 2.030 WHIP, nine home runs, .292 BAA, and 29 strikeouts over 33 innings). He turned in seven excellent starts over the summer (5-0 with a 2.45 ERA, 0.917 WHIP, .213 BAA, and 35 strikeouts over 40.1 innings). After a poor outing (six runs, 10 hits, and two home runs over 3.2 innings with six strikeouts), Falter closed out the season with seven shutout innings with six strikeouts).

He has plenty of work needed against right-handed batters (.273 with 13 home runs over 253 at-bats). Falter also struggled at home (5.49 ERA, 1.348 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts over 39.1 innings).

His average fastball (91.6) came in below the league average. Falter only had success with his four-seamer (.229 BAA) last season. He threw his curveball (.217 BAA) and slider (.053 BAA) much better over the final 10 weeks while battling his sinker (.364 BAA) and show-me changeup (.714 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Falter pitched well enough late in 2022 to be considered the favorite to win the fifth starting job for the Phillies out of spring training. He throws strikes, with a minor resume to support a serviceable season in 2023. His ADP (421) in the NFBC makes him a bench flier in deep formats. Falter must clean up the damage in home runs allowed (1.7 per nine) to lower his chance of posting disaster starts—possibly a 3.75 ERA and help in WHIP.

SP Hans Crouse

Over the first four seasons in the minors, Crouse went 16-8 with a 3.27 ERA and 266 strikeouts over 247.1 innings. He struggled in 2019 at A (6-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 87.2 innings), but a year off in 2020 (no minor league baseball) led to a bounce back in his arm in 2021. Crouse shined over 19 starts at AA (3.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts over 80.2 innings).

Philadelphia acquired him at the draft deadline from the Rangers for SP Spencer Howard and SP Kevin Gowdy. Crouse struggled in his only start at AAA (three runs and six baserunners over 4.1 innings with six strikeouts), but the Phillies gave him two appearances in the majors (5.14 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, seven walks, and two strikeouts over seven innings). A biceps injury last season led to five disaster starts (13.14 ERA over 12.1 innings).

He brings a hard-sinking fastball that sits in the mid-90s while offering an upside slider. Crouse battled elbow injuries in the past.

Fantasy Outlook: Crouse has never thrown over 88 innings at any level in his pro career, so his future may lie in the Phillies’ bullpen if TJ surgery doesn’t catch him first. Only spring training and early season follow.

Bullpen

RP Craig Kimbrel

After struggling in 2019 and 2020 (0-5 with a 6.00 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 36 innings), Kimbrel dominated with the Cubs (0.49 ERA with 64 strikeouts and 23 saves over 36.2 innings). Unfortunately, the magic ended once he arrived on the other Chicago franchise (5.09 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 23 innings) due to five home runs allowed.

The Dodgers acquired Kimbrel on April 1st last season. He appeared to be a fantasy steal over his first 13 games (3.00 ERA, 17 strikeouts, and nine saves). His arm was a disaster from May 27th to August 16th (5.22 ERA, 1.670 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts over 29.1 innings), but he still converted 11 of his 15 saves. Kimbrel rebounded over his final 19 appearances (1.93 ERA, 0.804 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts over 18.2 innings) despite still batting his command (10 walks). Los Angeles only gave him three more save chances (2-for-3).

His average fastball (95.8) was a career low (0.75 mph lower than in 2021). Batters had more success against his four-seam fastball (.255 BAA) and slider (.273 BAA) while continuing to have an elite curveball (.143 BAA).

From 2011 to 2018, Kimbrel was one of the better closer in baseball (27-19 with a 1.97 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 828 strikeouts, and 332 saves over 512 innings). His arm has been unimpressive over the past four seasons (10-17 with a 3.70 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 230 strikeouts, and 61 saves over 155.2 innings).

Fantasy Outlook: Kimbrel has 394 career saves, giving him the closing experience needed to get another shot at the ninth inning for the Phillies. His walk rate (4.4) and home runs allowed (1.2) have been a problem over the last five seasons, and Kimbrel lost more life off his fastball in 2022, highlighted by a career-low strikeout rate (10.3). His ADP (276) in the NFBC should be in flux in spring training once the fantasy markets get a peak at his arm and Philadelphia’s plan in the ninth inning. He is only a coin flip for saves in February.

RP Gregory Soto

Based on his save total (48) over the past two seasons, Soto will draw attention in the fantasy market as a potential closer for the Phillies this year. His ERA (3.28) has improved each year in the majors, but he has yet to post a walk rate under 5.00. As a result, his WHIP (1.376 in 2022 and 1.490 in his career) tells a better story about his left arm. Soto finished with 11 losses last season despite having success in saves (30-for-33).

He issued 27 of his 34 walks to right-handed batters (.218 BAA), but he had more trouble with lefties (.245 BAA). Soto helped fantasy teams over his first 39 appearances (2.13 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, .194 BAA, 40 strikeouts, and 20 saves over 38 innings). Over his final 22.2 innings, his command (18 walks) created too much drama, leading to a 5.24 ERA, 1.836 WHIP, 20 strikeouts, and 10 saves.

His average fastball (98.8) remains elite in velocity and success (four-seamer – .212 BAA and sinker – .223 BAA). Soto also has a winning slider (.235 BAA) while adding a minimal usage changeup (no hits on his 12 pitches thrown).

Fantasy Outlook: Soto has a live arm with a much higher ceiling if he can throw more first-pitch strikes (57%) and get his walk rate under 4.0 (3.8 over his first 39 games last season). His ADP (378) in the high-stakes market seems reasonable when adding that he’ll get some chances, but his playability starts with the command box.

RP Seranthony Dominquez

Dominguez was the sexy closer in waiting for the Phillies in 2019, but he pitched his way out of contention after three games (four runs and five baserunners over 2.1 innings with four strikeouts). His arm looked better over his last nine innings in April (2.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts). Unfortunately, something looked awry in May (4.09 ERA). In early June, Dominquez saw his season end with a right elbow injury, but he didn’t have TJ surgery until July of 2020.

Last season, he finished with a competitive ERA (3.00) and WHIP (1.137) while securing nine of his 11 save chances. Batters only hit .197 against Dominguez despite battling his command (3.9 walks per nine). A triceps issue in August led to 24 days on the injured list. Over his final nine appearances, he allowed 10 runs, 12 hits, nine walks, and two home runs over 7.2 innings.

His average fastball (97.8) returned to elite status. Dominguez succeeded with all four of his pitches (four-seamer – .164 BAA, sinker – .217 BAA, slider – .192 BAA, and changeup – .111 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: There is no doubt who the closer should be for the Phillies in 2023, as long as his right arm is healthy in spring training. His ADP (251) in the high-stakes market supports my thought process, but I don’t make the bullpen call for Philadelphia. Dominguez flashed his dominance over 20 games in 2022 (one run and nine hits over 19.1 innings with 26 strikeouts and two saves). He is a must-follow this spring.

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