2023 Preview: New York Mets – FullTime Fantasy

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: New York Mets.

Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)

2023 New York Mets

After sitting out the postseason from 2017 to 2021, the Mets delivered their best record (101-61) since 1986 (108-54), but they still finished second in the NL East. The San Diego Padres knocked New York out of the playoff in the Wild Card series. Over the team’s 61-year history, the Mets have two World Series titles (1969 and 1986) and three World Series losses (1973, 2000, and 2015). They’ve only made the postseason in four other years (1988, 1999, 2005, and 2016).

New York ranked seventh in ERA (3.57) with a weaker ranking in the bullpen (31 wins, 19 losses, and 41 saves over 560.2 innings with 3.55 ERA – 10th). They finished fifth in runs (772), 15th in home runs (171), and sixth in RBIs (735). The Mets had the second-best batting average (.259) in the league with 62 stolen bases (23rd).

Over the winter, New York inserted themselves as the top dog in major league baseball by signing OF Brandon Nimmo, 2B Jeff McNeil, SP Justin Verlander, SP Kodai Senga, and RP Edwin Diaz to over $475 million in contracts. The Mets also added C Omar Narvaez, OF Tommy Pham, SP Jose Quintana, and RP David Robertson to their ballclub via free agency. They made two trades with Tampa and Miami to acquire RP Brooks Raley and SP Elieser Hernandez. New York parted ways with SP Chris Bassitt, SP Taijuan Walker, SP Jacob deGrom, RP Seth Lugo, RP Trevor May, and 1B Dominic Smith.

The Mets enter 2023 with two frontline aces (Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer), but both players are at the twilight part of their careers. I don’t see the back end of their rotation being dominant, but the addition of SP Kodai Senga does give New York another potential upside arm.

Edwin Diaz regained his elite closing status in 2022, putting the Mets bullpen in good hands again this year. The challenging for New York to compete with the best teams in baseball is improving their setup arms. The current structure for the sixth through the eighth innings isn’t championship-caliber heading into spring training.

New York has a competitive middle of the lineup, but they can’t match the depth of the Atlanta Braves batters. The Mets need OF Starling Marte, SS Francisco Lindor, and 1B Pete Alonso to have great seasons, plus a couple of complementary hitters to have uptick years.

Starting Lineup

OF Brandon Nimmo

Over six seasons in New York, Nimmo hit .266 with 47 home runs, 149 RBIs, and 20 stolen bases over 1,393 at-bats. Last year, he finished with the best opportunity in the pros, leading to career highs in all categories by a wide margin. His strikeout rate (17.2) was the best of his time with the Mets, but he had a step back in his walk rate (10.6 – 13.6 in his career).

Despite struggling in July in batting average (.222), Nimmo had his best production (.271 with 60 runs, 11 home runs, 40 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 325 at-bats). Surprisingly, his bat had less value at home (.234/39/4/22/1 over 273 at-bats).

His swing path led to the highest groundball rate (50.5) of his career due to a fade in his launch angle (6.1). Nimmo finished with a lower HR/FB rate (10.9) than his success in 2018 (17.5), 2019 (16.3), and 2020 (17.4).

Fantasy Outlook: The Mets locked up Nimmo for eight seasons for $162 million over the winter, which seems like an overpay based on him reaching 500 at-bats only once by the age of 29. His walk rate gives him a top-of-the-order approach, but he needs a batter swing path to help his value in home runs and RBIs. In the early draft season in the NFBC, his ADP (174) ranks 104th for hitters. Nimmo finished 53rd in FPGscore (1.39). The key for his fantasy value is staying healthy. I view him as a steady player who needs volume at-bats to help his stats. Possible rise in batting average with 90/20/70/5 skill set with 500 at-bats.

OF Starling Marte

Despite missing 42 games (fractured rib) in 2021, Marte ranked 8th in FPGscore (7.22) for hitters, with 6.62 of his ranking points coming from his 47 stolen bases. Over the past four years, he scored 298 runs while being on base 610 times (48.8% of the time).

In 2022, Marte landed on the injured list for a month with a broken right finger while also missing time with quad, wrist, and groin issues. He only had two months with 100 at-bats or more. His strikeout rate (18.3) and walk rate (5.2) fell in line with his career path.

Marte regained his lost value in his average hit rate (1.603) thanks to a better swing path (49.0% ground ball rate – 54.8 in 2022) and a slight rebound in his launch angle (7.5 – 4.6 in 2021). He had weakness in his exit velocity (86.8 – 270th), barrel rate (6.8 – 175th), and hard-hit rate (33.9 – 248th). However, his contact batting average (.369) had a pullback from 2021 (.394), but was above the previous four seasons (.346, .344, .357, and .342), suggesting more pullback in his batting average.

Fantasy Outlook: Last season, Marte finished 38th in FPGscore (2.90) for hitters while playing about three-quarters of the year. He’ll start the year at age 34 while missing 218 games over the past six seasons. His core surgery puts him behind pace to be ready for the start of spring training. His ADP (79) in the NFBC is much lower than in 2021 (30) due to his missed playing time and step back in steals. I’ll set his bar at .280 with 90 runs, 15 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 25 steals.

OF Francisco Lindor

Lindor went down as a double-jeopardy pick in 2021. He stumbled out of the gate over the first half of the year (.212 with 40 runs, nine home runs, 26 RBIs, and six stolen bases over 278 at-bats). Two weeks into July, an oblique issue pushed him to the injury list for five weeks. In September, he tried to save his season with an uptick in play (.257/23/9/25 over 113 at-bats), but most investors fell out of contention weeks ago.

Last season, Lindor outperformed his price point in drafts, highlighted by his FPGscore (6.97 – 10th), thanks to him playing 161 games. His career-high in RBIs (107) came from a massive jump in his RBI chances (483). He finished with his best contact batting average (.342) over the last five seasons. Lindor had a step back in his average hit rate (1.665). His strikeout rate (18.8) was a career-high while remaining better than the league average, but it did regress for the fifth straight year.

He hit between four and five home runs each month last season. Lindor was at his best over the last three months (.294 with 53 runs, 14 home runs, 51 RBIs, and eight steals over 340 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: With a high floor five category skill set, Lindor comes off the board in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as the 24th hitter with an ADP of 32. I can’t expect his RBI chances to repeat but his ability to pile at-bats allowed him to beat other comparable players in counting stats. Let’s shoot for a neutral batting average with a similar output as last season.

1B Pete Alonso

In 2021, Alonso was the 42nd-ranked hitter by FPGscore (2.38), which fell in line with his 2021 ADP (57) in the NFBC. Despite New York having underperforming players hitting in front of him in the lineup, he still came to the plate with 440 runners on base. Unfortunately, Alonso offered a below-par RBI rate (14) for the second straight season. With his 2019 RBI rate (17), he would have driven in 15 more runs.

Last season, the Mets created 59 more RBI chances (499), leading to a league-high 131 RBIs for Alonso. He finished with the best RBI rate (18) of his career while maintaining a top-tier average hit rate (1.907). His contact batting average (.345) improved slightly in back-to-back seasons. His strikeout rate (18.7) was the best of his career, with three consecutive years of improvement. Alonso almost repeated his walk rate (9.8) for his time in New York.

His output in power against lefties (.247/28/9/25 over 146 at-bats) came in below 2021 (16 home runs and 32 RBIs) and 2019 (14 home runs and 35 RBIs) while continuing to have weakness in batting average (.235) for his career. Alonso had three months with nine home runs (May – 9/30, June – 9/22, and September – 9/26).

He has a flyball swing path (43.9%) that inched higher, but his HR/FB rate (19.0) came in below 2019 (30.6), 2020 (24.6), and 2021 (19.7). Alonso finished 94th in exit velocity (89.8), 72nd in hard-hit rate (44.8), and 45th in barrel rate (12.3).

Fantasy Outlook: Alonso comes off an excellent season, leading to the sixth-best FPGscore (8.06) for hitters. Despite his growth, he didn’t hit the ball with more authority than in his previous three seasons. I sense that his better approach led to a more controlled swing with two strikes, thus lowering his hard-hit rate (47.3 in 2021). His ADP (19) in the high-stakes market in early February, ranking him third at first base. Any bet on Alonso is on his edge in power while having a chance at pushing higher in batting average. Possible .280 with 100 runs, 45 home runs, and 110 RBIs. He even chipped in with five steals last season.

3B Eduardo Escobar

Other than 2020, Escobar played his best ball after the age of 27. His breakout season came in 2019 when he set career highs across the board. In 2021, he finished with his second-highest totals in runs (77), home runs (28), and RBIs (90).

Last year, Escobar had a step back in production in all categories despite minimal change in his contact batting average (.325 – .327 in 2021) and average hit rate (1.790 – 1.863 in 2021). The Mets created plenty of RBI chances (399) for him while sitting out 26 games with only one trip to the injured list (oblique). His bat offered dull stats over the first five months (.218/41/12/44 over 386 at-bats) before bailing out in September (.321 with 17 runs, eight home runs, and 25 RBIs over 109 at-bats).

He has a rising flyball rate (47.3%) but fading HR/FB rate (11.4). His launch angle (20.6 – 18th) ranks high, but Escobar doesn’t have an edge in his hard-hit rate (37.6 – 192nd).

Fantasy Outlook: New York needs someone to step up behind Pete Alonso. Escobar brings an upper-cut swing with 20 or more home runs in five of his six previous years (the only failure came in 2020 over 60 games). His ADP (350) in the NFBC fits someone shopping for low-average power. Last season, he had the highest strikeout rate (23.8) of his career while not being far from the league average. With 500 at-bats, a .250/65/20/65 season seems within reach.

2B Jeff McNeil

After a breakthrough season in 2019 (.318 with 23 home runs and 75 RBIs), McNeil lost his power stroke (11 home runs and 58 RBIs) in 2020 and 2021 over 569 at-bats., McNeil hit .319 with 137 runs, 30 home runs, 117 RBIs, and 12 steals over 918 at-bats over his first three years in New York.

Last season, he regained his lost contact batting average (.369 – .296 in 2021 and .369 from 2018 to 2020), but his average hit rate (1.391) was a five-year low. McNeil was difficult to strikeout (10.4%) while repeating his career walk rate (6.8).

His bat had success against lefties in batting average (.312), but not production (21 runs, one home run, and nine RBIs over 157 at-bats). After the All-Star break, McNeil hit .356 with 35 runs, five home runs, and 27 RBIs.

Despite a rising flyball rate (35.0), his HR/FB rate (5.4) regressed for the third consecutive season while being well below his breakout in power (23 home runs ~ HR/FB rate – 15.4) in 2019. McNeil ranked poorly in exit velocity (86.9 – 269th) and hard-hit rate (30.2 – 284th).

Fantasy Outlook: The best chance for McNeil to up his fantasy value in 2023 would be a push to the top of the Mets lineup. His on-base percentage has been an edge in four (.381, .384, .383, and .382) of his five seasons. His FPGscore (0.98) ranked 61st for hitters with 3.17 points gained coming in batting average. McNeil is the 119th batter off the board in the NFBC in early February based on his ADP (201). The change in shift rules should lead to a few more hits, but he needs the extra chance to leave the yard to help his fantasy value. Hopefully, his one plus (batting average) added to two possible neutral categories (runs and RBIs) gives him a fighting chance to outperform expectations. With a bump in power and moving up the batting order, his bat would be that much better for New York and fantasy teams.

OF Mark Canha

In 2021, the A’s gave Canha the best starting opportunity of his career. He set career-highs in at-bats (519), runs (93), and stolen bases (12). However, even with an improved approach (strikeout rate – 20.5 and walk rate – 12.3), he finished with a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.307). In addition, his average hit rate (1.675) came in below his higher output from 2017 to 2019 (1.849). Other than runs and steals, Canha offered a dull path for five months (3/7, 7/8, 1/18, 0/4, and 2/9) in home runs and RBI.

He had a rebound in contact rate (.337) last season, helping him set a career-best in hits (123). Unfortunately, Canha produced fewer runs (71) and home runs (13) with a step back in at-bats (462 – 519 in 2021). The Mets gave him less than 90 at-bats in each of his first five months.

He lost more loft off his swing path (fly-ball rate – 34.7 and 39.1 in his career) with more fade in his HR/FB rate (10.2). His exit velocity (87.7 – 222nd), hard-hit rate (36.6 – 210th), and barrel rate (4.9 – 233rd) ranked poorly. Canha finished with the lowest strikeout rate (17.9) of his career.

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past five years (.253/336/78/265/23 over 1,947 at-bats), Canha has a 75/20/65/5 stat line if given 500 at-bats. His ADP (353) in the high-stakes market still looks too low if New York uses him in a platoon role. I don’t see enough upside to fight for him in deep formats. Only an injury cover unless his power emerges early in the season (his average hit rate – of 1.512 was a five-year low).

OF Dan Vogelbach

Over the previous three seasons, Vogelbach bounced around five different franchises, leading to a .228 batting average with 93 runs, 33 home runs, and 99 RBIs over 716 at-bats.

Seattle gave him the first starting opportunity of his career in 2019. He finished with strength in power (30 home runs) and his walk rate (16.5), but his batting average (.208) was a glaring hole.

In 2022, the Pirates and Mets gave Vogelbach an improved chance to showcase his power (.238 with 47 runs, 18 home runs, and 59 RBIs over 386 at-bats). He takes a ton of walks (15.7%) with below-average strikeouts (25.7). His HR/FB rate (16.1) came in below his 2019 (21.1) and 2020 (22.2).

Vogelbach has yet to solve left-handed pitching (.136 with six home runs and 29 RBIs over 264 at-bats). Over nine seasons in the minors, he hit .288 with 616 runs, 123 home runs, 506 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases over 2,762 at-bats.

Fantasy Outlook: Vogelbach has a DH-only tag entering 2023 in leagues with 10 and 20-game minimums. At best, he is a platoon player against right-handed pitching with occasional spurts of power.

C Francisco Alvarez

Over three seasons in the minors, Alvarez hit .274 over 895 at-bats with 173 runs, 58 home runs, 174 RBIs, and nine stolen bases. Last season, he beat up AA pitching (.277/43/18/47 over 253 at-bats), leading to a call-up to AAA (.234 over 158 at-bats with 31 runs, nine home runs, and 31 RBIs). His walk rate (13.6) was an elite area with a slightly below-par strikeout rate (23.1). Alvarez had a high floor in his contact batting average (.379) and an elite average hit rate (1.922).

The Mets gave him 14 at-bats in New York In September, highlighted by his first career home run. In October, Alvarez had surgery to repair a right ankle injury.

Fantasy Outlook: The winter speculation is that the Mets want Alvarez to work on his defense, which suggests he’ll start the year at AAA. His ADP (357) in the NFBC is higher than expected due to his DH-only qualification in their format. The Mets desperately need another power bat, and Alvarez has the approach and potential to beat the production of their current options at DH. The bottom line is that New York needs to win games, and they have a player to help them achieve that goal. Almost a slam dunk C2 if his ankle passes the health test in spring training. On the downside, I don’t expect him to play 10 games at catcher until June.

C Omar Narvaez

In 2019, Narvaez set career-highs in at-bats (428), runs (63), home runs (22), and RBIs (55) while showing growth in his average hit rate (1.655). Unfortunately, he failed to match his success over the next three seasons (.233 with 83 runs, 17 home runs, and 82 RBI over 761 at-bats).

Last year, his contact batting average (.263) was below his success in 2018 (.358) and 2019 (.354). Narvaez has a fading average hit rate (1.481). He failed to deliver C2 stats while missing time with a quad injury.

His strikeout rate (19.3) and walk rate (9.8) fell in line with his career averages. Narvaez struggled against left-handed pitching (.212 with no home runs and four RBIs over 33 at-bats).

Narvaez ranked 316th in hard-hit rate (18.4), 310th in exit velocity (84.7), and 298th in barrel rate (2.4). His swing path was flyball favoring (44.6%) with a fading HR/FB rate (4.4).

Fantasy Outlook: The Mets’ future catcher (Francisco Alvarez) has 159 at-bats experience at AAA, pointing to him an opportunity at winning the starting catching in New York quickly in 2023. Narvaez may rebound, but he has more downside than upside at this point of his career. Only a fill-in catcher early in the season.

OF Tommy Pham

Pham struggled over his first 23 games in 2020 (.207 with two home runs, nine RBIs, and six steals over 82 at-bats) before landing on the injured list for a month with a left wrist injury that required surgery after the season. He played the best ball of his career from 2017 to 2019 from age 29 to 31 (.284 with 274 runs, 65 home runs, 204 RBIs, and 65 stolen bases over 1,505 at-bats).

Over the past two seasons, Pham lost his momentum in batting average (.233) while offering some help in runs (163), home runs (32), RBIs (112), and stolen bases (22) over 1,029 at-bats. His contact batting average (.339) improved slightly from 2021 (.314) while remaining well below his peak in 2018 (.384). Pham finished last year with a career-high strikeout rate (26.9 – 23.9 in his career) while losing a notch in his high walk rate (9.0 – 11.9 in his career).

His HR/FB rate (12.9) regressed for the fifth consecutive season, but Pham posted a career-high flyball rate (33.7) while continuing to have a groundball swing path (48.0%).

Fantasy Outlook: Pham gives the Mets veteran experience off the bench. He has enough experience to work his way into a DH rotation early in the year, plus sees some time in the outfield. In the fantasy world, Pham is a bench option in deep formats based on his ADP (393).

Starting Pitching

SP Justin Verlander

After making one start in 2020 (two runs over six innings with seven strikeouts), Verlander blew out his right elbow, leading to TJ surgery in October.

Over five seasons with Houston, Verlander went 61-19 with a 2.26 ERA, 0.833 WHIP, and 825 strikeouts over 652 innings. He led the American League in wins (18), ERA (1.75), and WHIP (0.829) in 2022. His walk rate (1.5 – 1.6 with the Astros) has been exceptional, but Verlander had a step back in his strikeout rate (9.5). A calf issue led to three missed starts in September.

He struggled with home runs (1.2, 1.2, 1.2, and 1.5 per nine) from 2016 to 2019 due to pitching more up in the strike zone, but Verlander corrected the issue last year (0.6 per nine).

His average fastball (95.1) came out of TJ surgery with no lost velocity. All four of his pitches were electric (four-seamer – 2.04 BAA, slider – .189 BAA, curveball – .180 BAA, and changeup – .158 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Verlander has 244 career wins (56th) and 3,198 strikeouts (12th), putting him on a path to the Hall of Fame. His ADP (45) in the NFBC ranks him 12th for starting pitcher. He led all pitchers last season in FPGscore (9.72). At age 40, he remains an elite arm who looked to be on a path to win 15+ games with an edge in ERA and WHIP and 200+ strikeouts. The Mets gave him $43 million reasons to make 32 starts.

SP Max Scherzer

Scherzer returned to his elite ways in 2021 after a down season the previous year (3.74 ERA), but he averaged just under six innings per start. Over his first nine starts with the Dodgers, Scherzer when 7-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 79 strikeouts over 58 innings. He allowed two runs or fewer in 24 of his 30 starts.

Last year, he landed on the injured list twice with an oblique issue. Scherzer went 8-2 over his first 16 starts with a 1.93 ERA, 0.925 WHIP, .209 BAA, and 126 strikeouts over 102.2 innings. He gave up four runs in three of his final seven starts, leading to a 3.16 ERA and 47 strikeouts over his final 42.2 innings.

His average fastball (94.1) was his lowest since 2014. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.212 BAA), slider (.184 BAA), changeup (.202 BAA), cutter (.218 BAA), and curveball (.220 BAA). He finished with a career-high fly-ball rate (49.6), inviting some risk in home runs allowed with less zip on his pitches.

Fantasy Outlook: Scherzer has been one of the best arms in baseball over the last decade (149-60 with a 2.78 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, and 2,364 strikeouts over 1,877.1 innings). He has not pitched more than 180 innings since 2018, possibly taking him down a notch from some of the younger arms with upside. His ADP (48) in the high-stakes market is not based on his success, It’s on his lower output of innings. Many drafters will lose track of him while trying to beat him with someone who has not approached his floor. With 30 starts, Scherzer will be well worth the investment.

SP Kodai Senga

Over 11 seasons in Japan, Senga went 104-51 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and 1,486 strikeouts over 1,340.2 innings. From 2018 to 2020, his walk rate (3.8, 3.7, and 4.1) was graded as a liability. He threw more strikes (2.9 walks per nine) in 2021, leading to a 10-4 record with 2.67 116 strikeouts over 111.1 innings. Last year, Senga delivered a 1.89 ERA and 159 strikeouts over 148.0 innings while extending his winning season record to eight seasons. He has not pitched more than 150 innings since 2019 (180.1 – most of his career).

Senga works of a mid-90s fastball, followed by a swing-and-miss split-finger pitch (forkball). His cutter and slider help to keep batters off balance. Unfortunately, he has a history of shoulder issues.

Fantasy Outlook: The Mets signed him for a five-year contract for $75 million in December. His ADP (186) in the NFBC fits his profile, but I’m concerned that Senga will miss time over the long major league baseball season. Tempting for sure, and I expect him to be challenging to hit with value in strikeouts. Let’s go with 10-5 with a sub-3.00 ERA and 140 strikeouts over 135 innings, but he may be on the sidelines in September when fantasy teams need him the most.

SP Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco ended up being a bust in 2019. His season started with half of his first 12 starts resulting in disaster. Despite allowing no runs over 23 innings with 28 strikeouts in four of those games, he had an ERA of 4.98 at the end of May, with 14 home runs allowed over 65 innings. Cleveland placed him on the injured list for three months with a battle with a form of leukemia. In September, Carrasco returned to the mound as a reliever, but he struggled in many games (6.60 ERA).

In 2020, Carrasco regained his form, leading to 11 starts with three runs or fewer allowed. After his first six games, he still had a 4.50 ERA. Over his final six matchups, Carrasco posted a 1.66 ERA and 43 strikeouts over 38 innings. His walk rate (3.6 – 2.3 in his career) did come in at his highest level since his rookie season in 2009 (4.4).

He started 2021 with a bad hamstring injury, leading to almost four months on the injured list. His arm didn’t look right over his 12 starts (6.04 ERA, .272 BAA, and 12 home runs over 53.2 innings). Carrasco had right elbow surgery in October to remove bone fragments.

Last season, his results appeared to be rebounding over his first 11 starts (7-1 with 3.52 ERA, 1.156 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 64 innings) despite three poor showings (17 runs, 29 baserunners, and 12 strikeouts over 13.2 innings). A back issue may have been part of the reason for his four fantasy-crushing starts in June (19 runs, 35 baserunners, and seven home runs over 17.2 innings). After an excellent run over seven starts (5-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 42 strikeouts over 42.2 innings), an oblique injury on August 15th put him on the injured list for 19 days. His season ended with a subpar September (4.21 ERA, 1.481 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 25.2 innings).

His average fastball (93.3) regressed for the eighth straight season while grading as a liability (four-seamer – .332 BAA and sinker – .366 BAA). Carrasco struggled on too many days vs. right-handed pitching (.289 BAA). He still has a winning changeup (.211 BAA) and slider (.225 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: From 2014 to 2018, he went 68-43 with a 3.27 ERA and 963 strikeouts over 856 innings. However, Carrasco hasn’t been the same pitcher over the following four years (4.38 ERA, 1.326 WHIP, and 380 strikeouts over 353.2 innings). His ADP (306) almost matches 2021 (305) in the high-stakes market. Carrasco will be up and down again in 2023, especially with his mediocre fastball. He pitches for a good team, but his arm is teetering on more disaster with any regression in command.

SP Jose Quintana

Over six years with the White Sox, Quintana had a 3.51 ERA and 890 strikeouts over 1,055.1 innings. Quintana went 33-23 with a 4.24 ERA and 420 strikeouts over 439.2 innings with the Cubs over the following four seasons.

In 2020, Quintana started the year on the injured list after having left thumb surgery in early July. In September, a lat issue cost him more playing time. He finished with only 10 innings pitched.

After a disastrous 2021 (6.43 ERA, 1.730 WHIP, and 85 strikeouts over 63 innings), Quintana posted the lowest ERA (2.93) of his career over 32 starts with the Pirates and Cardinals. His WHIP (1.213) suggested an ERA closer to 3.65. He finished with a rebound in his walk rate (2.6) but his lowest strikeout rate (7.4) of his career. Quintana allowed only eight home runs.

His average fastball (91.2) remains about one mph below his best seasons. Quintana continues to throw an excellent curveball (.207 BAA), and batters struggled to square up his four-seam fastball (.228 BAA). Unfortunately, his changeup (.288 BAA) and sinker (.330 BAA) were losing pitches on too many occasions.

Fantasy Outlook: Quintana fits the inning-eater mode the Mets were looking for from their fifth starter. His pitches have downside vs. right-handed batters (.251 BAA), but a stellar second half (1.67 ERA over 75.1 innings with 56 strikeouts) will reel in fantasy drafters. His ADP (337) in the NFBC paints him as a rotational arm with a minimal chance of repeating. At best, a 3.75 ERA with some WHIP risk.

SP Tylor Megill

Over three seasons in the minors, Megill went 9-10 with a 3.41 ERA and 187 strikeouts over 140 innings. His arm pressed higher in 2021 at AA and AAA, leading to a 3.35 ERA and 59 strikeouts over 40.1 innings.

When the Mets needed a starter when Jacob deGrom battled some injuries in 2021, they called up Megill in late June. He pitched well over his first seven starts (2.04 ERA and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). However, major league batters caught up to him over his final 11 starts (6.13 ERA, .282 BAA, 15 home runs, and 60 strikeouts over 54.1 innings). His failure came against left-handed batters (.315 with 13 home runs and 44 strikeouts over 165 at-bats).

Megill made the Mets rotation on opening day last season, leading to success over his first six starts (4-1 with a 2.43 ERA, 0.891 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over 33.1 innings). He left his next game (eight runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over 1.1 innings) with a biceps injury, leading to a trip on the injured list for a month. Two starts later, Megill developed right shoulder soreness, costing him another 94 days. His season ended with six losing innings (6.00 ERA and a .304 BAA) in the bullpen.

He had plenty of velocity in his fastball (95.8 mph). Megill had success with his slider (.088 BAA) and his show-me curveball (.100 BAA). Batters banged around his changeup (.333 BAA) and four-seamer (.269 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: When Megill figures out how to get lefties out (.293 BAA and five home runs over 99 at-bats in 2022) and keeps the ball in the park, his arm will move to a trusted area for fantasy managers. His command and strikeout rate drive his ADP (407) in the NFBC, but his 2022 injuries do damper his potential development. If healthy, Megill could work as a viable handcuff for multiple starters for the Mets. His progress should be followed in spring training.

SP David Peterson

After a breakthrough season in 2017 in college (11-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 140 strikeouts over 100.1 innings), the Mets drafted Peterson as the 20th overall pick in 2017.

His arm had no problem with A Ball in 2018 (1.82 ERA and 57 strikeouts over 59.1 innings), but he did look overmatched at High A in 2018 (4.33 ERA and 1.354 WHIP) and AA in 2019 (4.19 ERA and 1.345 WHIP). Peterson maintained value in both his walk rate (2.5) and strikeout rate (8.8) in the minors while showing more strikeout ability in 2019 (9.5).

With Marcus Stroman missing 2020, he made the jump from AA to the majors. Peterson allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts while struggling in one game (five runs and eight base runners over two innings). Despite his success, he lacked command (4.3 walks per nine) while also grading low with his first-pitch strike rate (55).

In 2021, after a disastrous first outing (six runs, nine baserunners, and two home runs over four innings), Peterson posted a 4.05 ERA and 44 strikeouts over his next eight starts. After struggling in June (6.75 ERA), he landed on the injured list with an oblique issue, followed by a broken toe.

Between starting and the bullpen last season, Peterson went 7-3 with a save over his first 20 games with a 3.21 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, and 104 strikeouts over 89.2 innings. He opened up September with three beatings (11 runs, 21 baserunners, and 14 strikeouts over 9.1 innings), crushing his previous gains. New York pushed him back to the bullpen over his final five appearances (2.70 ERA and eight strikeouts over 6.2 innings).

His average fastball (93.6) was up by 0.8 mph from 2021. Peterson showed an improved slider (.171 BAA) and changeup (.200 BAA) while offering a losing curveball (.357 BAA), sinker (.294 BAA), and four-seamer (.280 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Peterson made strides last season, but he gives away too many at-bats due to his high walk rate (4.1) and inability to get ahead in the count (first pitch strike rate – 52). His ADP (394) in the NFBC puts him in the flier range, but I consider him an avoid due to his WHIP risk. Peterson may work over a short window in 2023 if his command improves.

Bullpen

CL Edwin Diaz

Diaz pitched better in 2021 (3.45 ERA, 89 strikeouts, and 32 saves over 62.2 innings), but he failed again to repeat his elite closing status of 2018. Despite his success, Diaz had nine horrendous games (19 runs, 29 base runners, and three home runs over 6.2 innings). He threw the ball well at home (4-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 58 strikeouts, and 23 saves over 39 innings). However, Diaz lacked confidence on the road (1-5 with a 6.85 ERA, 31 strikeouts, and nine saves over 23.2 innings).

Last season, his arm returned to electric status, leading to a career-low in ERA (1.31) and a rebound in his strikeout rate (17.1) and walk rate (2.6). On the downside, Diaz finished with only 32 saves due to low chances (35). Batters only hit .160, giving him five seasons with a sub .200 batting average against. He didn’t allow a home run to a right-handed batter (.202 BAA over 124 at-bats), with lefties only hitting .101. Over his final 42 games, Diaz allowed only three runs and 28 baserunners over 43.1 innings with 84 strikeouts and 22 saves.

His average fastball (99.2) was the best of his career, but his four-seamer (.254 BAA) wasn’t better than his career average (.235 BAA). Diaz dominated batters with his slider (.118 BAA with one extra-base hit and 91 strikeouts over 161 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: The Mets will win a lot of games this season, giving Diaz a chance at a much higher outcome in saves. He finished 16th in FPGscore (4.62) for pitchers (second best for a closer). Drafters have him ranked first for bullpen arms in the NFBC with an ADP of 22. Ultimately, Diaz must keep his walks under control to have repeated success in 2023. Possible five wins with a sub-2.00 ERA, 100+ strikeouts, and 40+ saves.

RP David Robertson

Robertson went 24-15 from 2014 to 2017 with a 2.93 ERA, 355 strikeouts, and 124 saves, with three seasons with more than 30 saves (39, 34, and 37). After pitching in a setup role in 2018 (3.23 ERA, 91 strikeouts, and five saves over 69.2 innings), a right elbow injury led to TJ surgery and no fantasy value from 2019 to 2021.

Last season, Robertson ended up being a value as a cheap closer, leading to a 2.40 ERA, 81 strikeouts, and 20 saves. He was challenging to hit (.173 BAA), but finding home plate was an issue (4.9 walks per nine) while maintaining his strikeout rate (11.5).

His average fastball (92.2) remains below the league average. Batters struggled to hit all three of his pitchers (cutter – .217 BAA, slider – .178 BAA, and curveball – .118 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: His closing experience and pitches point to an eighth-inning role, but he must improve his command. His ADP (473) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft formats.

RP Adam Ottavino

From 2017 to 2021, Ottavino walked 5.2 batters per nine innings, leading to a weakness in WHIP (1.333). His ERA (1.90) ranked well with the Yankees in 2019, but he lost his way over the following two seasons (9-6 with a 4.59 ERA, 1.481 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts).

Last year, the Mets unlocked his command issues, leading to 2.2 walks per nine. Ottavino finished with an excellent season (6-3 with a 2.06 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts over 65.2 innings). Despite his success, he did struggle against lefties (.301 with two home runs over 73 at-bats).

His average fastball (94.7) had less velocity than in 2021 (95.5). Ottavino gains an edge with a plus slider (.160 BAA) while having success with his sinker (.221 BAA) and a show-me changeup (.077 BAA) and cutter (.222 BAA). He threw a poor four-seamer (.455 and .909 SLG over 22 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: At age 37 with questionable command, Ottavino doesn’t profile high enough to take over the closing job for New York if Edwin Diaz has an injury. He is a risky reliever with WHIP with no projected fantasy value this season.

To read all the MLB Team Outlooks detailed and analyzed by a high-stakes fantasy baseball legend, become a member today!

You can either buy all the Outlooks as a downloadable for a one-time discounted price of $30 or Join the FullTime fam with a Monthly, 6-Month, or Annual Membership which includes everything we do for ALL SPORTS!